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Katia tracking and discussion thread


Damage In Tolland

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It's probably heresy to say here, but wide right is good. Many in the region need to take a breath. Linemen are exhausted, emergency responders are exhausted, and many homes/businesses need to be repaired. Some schools have yet to open.

Wide right is good.

Agreed. It seems like the least interesting scenario will win out this week as happens most of the time. Lee's remnants will be NBD here and Katia will pass harmlessly to the east of us.

Though there are always some sexy 7 and 8 day solutions that show highly anomalous and unusual synoptic setups... most of the time they don't come to pass. The Katia/Lee orgy of flooding and damage was always an extreme longshot and now it looks like that entire solution has been swept out to sea.

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It's probably heresy to say here, but wide right is good. Many in the region need to take a breath. Linemen are exhausted, emergency responders are exhausted, and many homes/businesses need to be repaired. Some schools have yet to open.

Wide right is good.

Agreed. Wide right is good. Not sure why some want destruction

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Can we please stop with this same old argument! This is a weather board, extreme weather is tracked, I don't think anyone is wishing for people or property to be destroyed.

You haven't been reading Blizz and SnowNHs posts much... Lol

Of course we track extreme weather and watch how it changes and how people try to predict it. But some still want a Cat 3 in their fanny or an EF3 to visit their town

I am happy to watch from afar, except for snow of course

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Can we please stop with this same old argument! This is a weather board, extreme weather is tracked, I don't think anyone is wishing for people or property to be destroyed.

We all get what you're saying. But since many of us went for 5+ days without power, and some people are still waiting, I think it's also appropriate for people on a weather board to hope that we can have calm weather for at least a couple weeks,

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We all get what you're saying. But since many of us went for 5+ days without power, and some people are still waiting, I think it's also appropriate for people on a weather board to hope that we can have calm weather for at least a couple weeks,

Good lush to all of you in CT, etc who have had troubles sinc elast week.

My brother in Foxboro just got power Friday night...

(see how I inserted the word lush Josh?)

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Can we please stop with this same old argument! This is a weather board, extreme weather is tracked, I don't think anyone is wishing for people or property to be destroyed.

Are you kidding me? Of course there are. It'd be great if we could all meet on a deserted island and ride out a Cat 5, but the reality is that anyone pulling for even a Cat 3 to hit New England is asking for weeks/months of power loss, and billions in property damage. Irene was only a TS for crying out loud and look at the damage it caused.

That said, the weather is going to do what it is going to do. The basis of weather forecasting is to provide ample warning of potentially catastrophic solutions. Thanks to Irene forecasting we were able to prepare for the 6 days of power loss we sufferred.

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You can just watch the evolution of the ridging across Canada over into the Atlantic and see the Atlantic ridge get the severe beat down which gives Katia an escape route to the N and eventually E.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA_loop.html

Lee just does not help like it could

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lol at the National Hurricane Center 5 day map. It's like the storm hits the inevitable east coast force field and bounces quickly to the east.

I don't think the recurve will be that sharp until it gets quite a bit further north.

GFS would have some fairly decent ocean winds up here as the storm passes (Cape/outer cape).

The 12z GFS is a bit further west vs the 0z. We'll see with the 0z tonight,

12zgfs1000440mbRh700mbOmega090.gif

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There will be some huge surf that affects the Cape/Island from this. No doubt about that. I doubt anything else from the storm directly affects them though except a bit of a kick up in breezy conditions.

LOL that's actually a good point, it's gusting to about 30-35 here again today. Only thing that may change is the direction of the wind.

I haven't looked much but I gather a compromise will end up coming to pass with the GGEM/others, IE a further west track but not an impactful change. Not enough to get captured but mayb enough to run it at the Cape before it bends off. Maybe gusts into the 40s somewhere.

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