ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Big block over western Canada/AK develops, right? That sends in a transient cold shot and snow chance, Will?? Its really just a kink in the flow...W Canada and AK continue to see below avg heights for the most part...though there is a little EPO ridging in the D8-9 time frame. The D6 threat might be a little stronger since there's a much more defined ridge in the center of the country that could help it amplify. But neither looks overly great right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 You know it. I actually have tons of work to do tonight. Wish rain wasn't coming in. When is you SR trip? This is being held there that week too, awesome to sit in the sun drinking Blue Moons watching. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJdq-i2EA7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 Snow cover and depth are missing from your equation, F to you for incomplete. No, they don't matter - it's how much snowed for the season. That's Meteorology. If you grade any other way it is subjective and therefore, less useful. Which is not to say you can't have your personal druthers of course.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Oh heck ya, patches here and there, lots more in the hills but gone like a freight train. Booked week at SR, back on that horse, no worries as each time I go out it gets better. Damn shame. Glad to hear you've mended. Can't wait to get to the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 OT but Mike Starr, original bassist for Alice in Chains was found dead today. One of the best bands in recent memory. Too bad. [media][/media] It's a sad commentary on the state of popular music that "one of the best bands in recent memory" had their heyday almost 20 years ago. RIP to the Rock and Roll era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 It's a sad commentary on the state of popular music that "one of the best bands in recent memory" had their heyday almost 20 years ago. RIP to the Rock and Roll era. Geez, that was 20 years ago? Time flies... Rock and Roll will never die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 No, they don't matter - it's how much snowed for the season. That's Meteorology. If you grade any other way it is subjective and therefore, less useful. Which is not to say you can't have your personal druthers of course.... Snow depth days, pure meteorology from a meteorologist Jim Corbin, a meteorologist from Rhode Island, proposed the concept of both snow depth days and the persistence quotient. http://www.wermenh.com/sdd/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Snow depth days, pure meteorology from a meteorologist Jim Corbin, a meteorologist from Rhode Island, proposed the concept of both snow depth days and the persistence quotient. http://www.wermenh.com/sdd/index.html Yeah snow depth and snow depth days are stuff that is easily measured and can be compared. The whole "grading" of winter though is often subjective. If people have a snow cover fetish over big storms then they might grade winter differently. Same with someone who has a cold fetish over snow. They would love '03-'04. I personally grade it mostly for the snow and snow pack...temps are a distant 3rd behind those two, though they are someone related to snow pack retention. I also give bonus points for a white Christmas. I cannot stand a brown Christmas. DJF this year gets an A from me...but I don't stop with DJF. We average more snow in March than we do in December. Its an important month to me and it matters in my book. So I'll wait until we are totally done before the final winter grade. Or the "cold season" grade I should call it if you want to get nitpicky about "meteorological winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 hey its snowing and sleeting in queens, that line heading in, flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 This winter will have an A- for me barring another substantial 10"+ storm for the remainder of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 hey its snowing and sleeting in queens, that line heading in, flakes? I was wondering if any of that stuff was reaching the ground, but none of it is being reported at the ASOS stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I was wondering if any of that stuff was reaching the ground, but none of it is being reported at the ASOS stations. obs in the nyc thread says it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 obs in the nyc thread says it is Made a new thread for any weenie flakes or winter wx reported over the next 12 hours or so from this system....so we don't turn this one into an obs thread. We'll keep this thread mostly for next weeks threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 This winter will have an A- for me barring another substantial 10"+ storm for the remainder of the winter. It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I was wondering if any of that stuff was reaching the ground, but none of it is being reported at the ASOS stations. It is reaching the ground...I've had a moderate burst. Here is my 11:10 observation from Dobbs Ferry, NY (Southern Westchester): -SN 35.2/32 coating on cartops... EDIT: Wind is absolutely roaring here...getting some gusts well over 20mph, especially a few feet off the deck. The woods behind my house are on an exposed mini-plateau at like 400' however, so high winds are always much more noticeable here than downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 It is reaching the ground...I've had a moderate burst. Here is my 11:10 observation from Dobbs Ferry, NY (Southern Westchester): -SN 35.2/32 coating on cartops... EDIT: Wind is absolutely roaring here...getting some gusts well over 20mph, especially a few feet off the deck. The woods behind my house are on an exposed mini-plateau at like 400' however, so high winds are always much more noticeable here than downtown. Watch out... those 20mph winds might send some dirt airbourne.. baha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Watch out... those 20mph winds might send some dirt airbourne.. baha LOL. Maybe I'm exaggerating as I'm in the mood to chat serious weather tonight...Some interesting stuff happening though. I am just worried about the combination of heavy rain and wind as I'm a delivery driver and have to work tomorrow evening from 6-10pm. Conditions could be pretty miserable if we get 2-3" rain in an already soggy area with winds in the 30mph range, I would assume they pick up a bit from here. I've had a tough time this year as I drive a very small Mazda and roads have been bad from all the snow/ice/rain and now the potholes from near constant salting in January and early February. We had a lot of highway closures on Monday due to flooding, and that would certainly impact my business if it were to repeat tomorrow. Definitely not the greatest situation to be driving in a hurry, but I do what I can to bring in a little extra money besides teaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Yeah but this thread is for the possibility of another threat next week. Keep the other stuff to yourself. Either you just altered a quote, or Kev really tyed typed that; either way I'm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Either you just altered a quote, or Kev really tyed typed that; either way I'm lol I think he knew I got him on that one, lol. He didn't respond to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I think he knew I got him on that one, lol. He didn't respond to it. LOL..I actually didn't see it until now. I logged off around 7:00 last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Suppression city next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 It's coming I'd like to see it. But the chances imho are quite remote at this point. HOWEVER, if it happens, it would appear that early next week is our chance. Ensembles...H5 and temps, D5,10,15. D5 has the temps that would support it Further out it appears too warm despite the OP runs insanity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Great maps...our chance is in this next batch then we are probably done barring a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 t.a.p.s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Suppression city next week Hard to believe suppression this time of year, climo and latest pattern argues strongly against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 10, 2011 Author Share Posted March 10, 2011 Wish there was more for you to savor from the overnight runs but ...eh, enjoy your face smackages... Maybe the 12z will turn things around and bring back the fragile shimmer of hope from yesterday's GGEM, added by the ECM tease that maybe that was on to something... all of which was pretty much dashed by the 00z. The teleconnectors still support that middle latitude "buckle" as described though, so mid month could still get interesting in furture runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 I go with a 3 grade average method for winter report cards, using DJF. March is an extra-credit month, which can make or break. But the pith of the season's G.P.A. is based DJF. If you get to an A+ by Feb 28/29, it's over. Meteorological winter is where it should count as scientists. If you get a 50% - or F - out of DJF, and then a 30" jaugernaut event takes place in March, then you're grade gets bumped into passing because your dad bought a new wing addition to some hall for the University. Having said that, I grade for cold and snow, here's the logic. Temperature: Warm departure days = +1 pt; cold departure days also = +1 pt. At the end of the month, subtract the warm total from the cool total, divide by the total number of days in that month, then multiply by 100. That is the grade for cold for that given month. Snow: Easier, total the given months snow total, divide it by the 30-year average for that month, multiply by 100. Once you have December, do the same for Jan and Feb. Then sum them up and divide by 3. That is the grade for the winter, with as said, an opportunity to make up with extra-credit in March. I take the FIT-LWM-BOS-PVD-HFD-PSF for the approximate regional report card, where the above logic is calculated at each site, then the average is taken. For indivuals, just do the same analysis for the point location/site. This is the fairest way to do it that removes personal insanity biases like ..."I didn't get 200", F!" bullschit. Take it or leave it. LOL, nice. I definitely value March, but the last few Decembers have been nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Wish there was more for you to savor from the overnight runs but ...eh, enjoy your face smackages... Maybe the 12z will turn things around and bring back the fragile shimmer of hope from yesterday's GGEM, added by the ECM tease that maybe that was on to something... all of which was pretty much dashed by the 00z. The teleconnectors still support that middle latitude "buckle" as described though, so mid month could still get interesting in furture runs. Yeah they weren't the greatest, that's for sure. There still may be a couple of opportunities if this one doesn't pan out, but certainly nothing concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 Looks great at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 10, 2011 Share Posted March 10, 2011 LOL..I actually didn't see it until now. I logged off around 7:00 last night Sure sign of spring when Will starts altering quotes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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