Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Squeezing this in from work (prolly not a good idea)... The overnight CPC computation shows 2 fold concerns with the PNA: Fairly significant on-going negative bias in the recent ensemble runs; a total of 2.25SD recovery has taken place across the last week to 10 days; these conditions offer room for correcting toward more amplitude. The prog going forward is statitically positive. The CDC on the other hand offers an even greater arguement for more amplitude in that their values in both channels show an abrupt spike in the PNA some 2-3 total SD, while in tandem there is at least a moderately intense dive in the NAO about to take place. That, particularly as it pertains to the former, is an above median Archambault signal. Somewhat time sensitive link: http://www.esrl.noaa.../compare.pn.png The MJO was weak to incoherent passing through March 1 ...but about 3 days ago it surged a bit in strength and is materializing into better coherency in Phase 8 - that phase is fairly significantly correlated (time lag dependent) on eastern N/A negative geopotential anomalies in general. If/when the PNA is tended positive to begin with, that becomes compounded factorization where the MJO's effectuality becomes enhanced by positive feedback from the background physical canvas. Somewhat time sensitive link: Go right to page 14, http://www.cpc.ncep....O/mjoupdate.pdf I have heard it stated by Mets even that 'models have a memory', which is to say ... when in a semi persistent pattern, the deterministic guidance types may tend to at first resist a pattern change. I have no idea if this is really true or not. Having said that, it may be possible that the runs are under-developed with the extent of western N/A ridge response stemming from any MJO/PNA forcing downstream from of the Pacific domain. I am thus more intrigued then usual for longer time leads; the 06z's steeper cut-off for Friday, as well as the major "bowling ball" system later on, both of which nestle rather nicely into that spatial-temporal layout. This is the most impressive signal for storminess (and plausible late season cold) since the 2nd week in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 John I see some of the same things myself. The ensembles seem to indicate split flow across western Canada, with a neutral-ish look to the NAO, but on the downturn. We still have troughing in the west, but it makes you wonder what any of those s/w's can do as it moves across through south, with split flow in Canada. Unfortunately, we really can't buy into anything until it shows up within 5 days or so, but no reason why we can't discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 John I see some of the same things myself. The ensembles seem to indicate split flow across western Canada, with a neutral-ish look to the NAO, but on the downturn. We still have troughing in the west, but it makes you wonder what any of those s/w's can do as it moves across through south, with split flow in Canada. Unfortunately, we really can't buy into anything until it shows up within 5 days or so, but no reason why we can't discuss. True - but also .... the point of it is to show that the signal is loud now. Folks, these teleconnectors are derived off the GFS ensembles. We can eye-ball the ensemble means and come up with sighted interpretation, but the statistics provided by these agencies are mathematically derived - so taken for what it is worth, for me, a powerful characteristic calculation of Empirical Orthogonal Functions is real tough to refute. Not that anyone is ... My point is that the mathematics of the systme right now are saying, "yeah, ..shows up within 5 day, BUT, you have a far better chance of one actually materializing now that you did at any time before - probably since the first or second week of February" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 True - but also .... the point of it is to show that the signal is loud now. Folks, these teleconnectors are derived off the GFS ensembles. We can eye-ball the ensemble means and come up with sighted interpretation, but the statistics provided by these agencies are mathematically derived - so taken for what it is worth, for me, a powerful characteristic calculation of Empirical Orthogonal Functions is real tough to refute. Not that anyone is ... My point is that the mathematics of the systme right now are saying, "yeah, ..shows up within 5 day, BUT, you have a far better chance of one actually materializing now that you did at any time before - probably since the first or second week of February" The GFS op has a nice Sunday morning surprise! The euro ensembles more or less show the same. I agree that teleconnections help support the chance of some sort of significant precipitation event, but I think the correlation is a bit less than, say, January. That doesn't mean you don't use them...I'm just a little more cautious this time around. However, I'd rather have the overall pattern support something like that, so what you're saying is certainly valid. I'm also concerned it could end up looking worse as we get closer so I'm just being conservative, but we always have to be aware for any one of these bowling balls to deliver a classic Tip blue snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 The GFS op has a nice Sunday morning surprise! The euro ensembles more or less show the same. I agree that teleconnections help support the chance of some sort of significant precipitation event, but I think the correlation is a bit less than, say, January. That doesn't mean you don't use them...I'm just a little more cautious this time around. However, I'd rather have the overall pattern support something like that, so what you're saying is certainly valid. I'm also concerned it could end up looking worse as we get closer so I'm just being conservative, but we always have to be aware for any one of these bowling balls to deliver a classic Tip blue snow bomb. Not sure if my memory is right but the last blue bomb was April 97 as a way over-achieving historical deal. But....any renogade 10 incher during any month when the temp is 32.1 and your -.01C from 980 on up will get iceburg blue snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Not sure if my memory is right but the last blue bomb was April 97 as a way over-achieving historical deal. But....any renogade 10 incher during any month when the temp is 32.1 and your -.01C from 980 on up will get iceburg blue snows. I had one on 1/11-1/12 this year, in Boston. It was like a blue snowcone..lol. Anyways, check out the daffodil destroyer for the MA later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 I had one on 1/12-1/13 this year, in Boston. It was like a blue snowcone..lol. Anyways, check out the daffodil destroyer for the MA later next week. Lol - I was actually thinkin that pesky little entity may be the first one we really want to watch heading into this PNA spike - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Looks to me like it wats to snow Sunday or Monday. fairly intriguing..along with a sneaky cold shot behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I had one on 1/11-1/12 this year, in Boston. It was like a blue snowcone..lol. Anyways, check out the daffodil destroyer for the MA later next week. Any idea what the ratios were for that one, and what sort of maximum ratio makes up a blue Tippy special? Does the ratio really make it? Hope... there is always hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I had one on 1/11-1/12 this year, in Boston. It was like a blue snowcone..lol. Anyways, check out the daffodil destroyer for the MA later next week. I'll be in D.C on a school trip. Everyone thinks its going to be in the 60s and 70s. (Disclaimer: I know it's highly unlikely and 60s are probably more likely then snow) Edit: Nevermind. I saw the gfs, and the storm is Tuesdayish. We leave Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Any idea what the ratios were for that one, and what sort of maximum ratio makes up a blue Tippy special? Does the ratio really make it? Hope... there is always hope... Barely 10:1, I would imagine. It was very wet. Lower ratio snows, mean higher water content. I'm always way more impressed with wet snow, because it always looks much more than what actually fell. I had about 14" or so of mash potatoes, and it looked like 2' fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Hey you never know...it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Does Ray know you have his jacket? I doubt I will ever see a storm like that again in late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Does Ray know you have his jacket? I doubt I will ever see a storm like that again in late March Him and Icewarrior share it. What misleading is that I'm holding a piece of strapping..not a yard stick. That piece was longer than a yardstick. I was trying to find something to gauge that depth, but I couldn't find a ruler. I figure me standing in the snow and being almost 18yrs old, was evidence enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Does Ray know you have his jacket? I doubt I will ever see a storm like that again in late March 30"+ will be tough to replicate ever again that late in the season, but amounts over 15" are not that unprecedented that late. For late season storms off the top of my head (other than 1997) over 15" I can think of: Mar 28-29, 1984....17.6" Apr 6-7, 1982........15.1" Apr 28-29, 1987.....17.0" Apr 9-10, 1996......18.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I can't believe April 28 and 29 1987, although May 1977 was even more ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I can't believe April 28 and 29 1987, although May 1977 was even more ridiculous. It seems these extreme late-season storms are almost always a warning bell for a strong El Niño: April 1997 April 1987 April 1982 All these years were followed by a strong Niño winter. 82-83 and 97-98 are the strongest El Niños on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Although the pattern is sort of meh, there are still signs of heights rising in the NAO region and up in nrn Canada, on the 12z runs. The flow still seems like classic Nina and rather progressive, but I suppose there is still a shot of something embedded in this flow. We just won't know until we get closer, but the clock is ticking for us cstl folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 Did anyone notice how annoying that high up N is timing-wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I can't believe April 28 and 29 1987, although May 1977 was even more ridiculous. May 1977 was the first specific winter event that is in my memory, one of my oldest weather memories period (Hot Saturday, a few near miss hurricanes being others) Branches down everywhere, power out, school cancelled, 10-12" of cement crushing trees (almost fully leafed out) Doesn't it happen every year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 30"+ will be tough to replicate ever again that late in the season, but amounts over 15" are not that unprecedented that late. For late season storms off the top of my head (other than 1997) over 15" I can think of: Mar 28-29, 1984....17.6" Apr 6-7, 1982........15.1" Apr 28-29, 1987.....17.0" Apr 9-10, 1996......18.0" Are those ORH numbers or your own? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 May 1977 was the first specific winter event that is in my memory, one of my oldest weather memories period (Hot Saturday, a few near miss hurricanes being others) Branches down everywhere, power out, school cancelled, 10-12" of cement crushing trees (almost fully leafed out) Doesn't it happen every year? I heard about it through lore, from my folks..lol. My teacher also told me how the spring track team, was forced to clear the track from snow so they could run. The heck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Found this map on accuweather May 1977 Looks low for my area (where I grew up in Foxboro) but probably right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Are those ORH numbers or your own? Thats ORH airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Does anyone have a theory why these big storms come when strong Niños are starting to develop? MJO/PNA forcing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Does anyone have a theory why these big storms come when strong Niños are starting to develop? MJO/PNA forcing? Its probably just coincidence....1984 and 1977 weren't during strong Ninos developing...neither was April 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 So what does everyone think about the Clipper and snow potential on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 So what does everyone think about the Clipper and snow potential on Sunday? Probably just a few scattered snow showers. Too much wave interference from this next turd in the punch bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 At least one more event en route, AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Probably just a few scattered snow showers. Too much wave interference from this next turd in the punch bowl. Can't catch a break..Hopefully enough moisture to squeeze out 1-3 as we get closer. Maybe the Baby Ruth in the pool won't rob all the moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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