Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 There will certainly be melting on the roads when this starts tonight, but no reason to expect that nothing will accumulate there. Will probably be a situation where there's 4" on the grass and 2" on the street. Yeah, no arguments there. My point was simply that it wasn't going to stick right off the bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 snow will stick on the roads pretty fast at night...if its dark and 28 and snowing hard..it should have no problem sticking Yeah, I think too much is being made of this. You don't go from nearly 3 months of frozen ground to "warm" because of a few days of warm temps. And also, the past couple of days and nights have helped to remove some of this new "warmth". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ABC 7 - *snip* Not sure how they came up with the orientation of that contouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It won't be very warm today for most people. Most of us have seen our highest temps. Mine have dropped 6 or 7 degrees in the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ABC 7 - Probably too low, at least for me. I'm now expecting 4-6 in Baltimore, maybe will up that a tiny smidgen if the GFS comes in like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Wow ! 8 hours ago, LWX had me receiving 1 inch of snow for this storm. I guess they may have to play catch- up. You hardly ever see that. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 its gonna stick just fine folks here are the 2m temps at 12hrs and 18hrs NAM has over .25" falling after 18hrs; ratios may surprise as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah, I think too much is being made of this. You don't go from nearly 3 months of frozen ground to "warm" because of a few days of warm temps. And also, the past couple of days and nights have helped to remove some of this new "warmth". The depth of soil that has warmed up and "melted" in the past week is probably only 1" or so. The trend in all the models has been to increase amounts over the past 24 hours. NAM is not by itself. 9z SREFs have a mean of 0.38" of snow QPF for BWI, max of 0.76". And that's actually probably deceptively low since there a few very low snow-total outliers. Most of the members have more than that. DC is mean of 0.11", max of 0.52" (lots of sleet as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bacamock Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 As a newbie, can somebody explain to me with the latest models indicating more snow how the NWS has dropped my accumulations from 1-3 to less than an inch? I know they botched our only good snow back in Jan. by issuing winter storm warnings 4 hours prior to the start of the precip. Is this going to be another case where they don't inform the public of whats coming? Good thing I read these forums religiously or i would be in trouble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 All northern Maryland counties under WSW FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER 924 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...MAINLY SNOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET. * ACCUMULATIONS...A POTENTIAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S THIS EVENING... DROPPING TO THE MID 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTH-NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ts gonna stick just fine folkshere are the 2m temps at 12hrs and 18hrs NAM has over .25" falling after 18hrs; ratios may surprise as well When does NAM bufkit usually come in? I know where to get it, but I've seen you post it a few times so I figured I'd ask about timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Watches got extended east along the M/D line only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I guess as long as the snow starts before midnight we can call it PDIII/4, since the total should be around a quarter of PDI and PDII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Guess watches will be extended at some point soon, then. Goodness knows the news channels in Baltimore are in catch-up mode. Channel 11 went with less than one inch on their 11:00 pm newscast last night. On Fox 45 all morning they are saying 1-2 inches..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 When does NAM bufkit usually come in? I know where to get it, but I've seen you post it a few times so I figured I'd ask about timing. about 15-20 minutes after the run is complete I would say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Watches got extended east along the M/D line only. Weird...usually they do watches for everyone and then downgrade to Advisories. Sounds like LWX and the media are going to be playing catch up the entire way. Edit...I think where they have the watches now are areas that should certainly be Warnings. But I think there's still enough of a chance for at least another 1-2 counties south of that area to hoist a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The depth of soil that has warmed up and "melted" in the past week is probably only 1" or so. The trend in all the models has been to increase amounts over the past 24 hours. NAM is not by itself. 9z SREFs have a mean of 0.38" of snow QPF for BWI, max of 0.76". And that's actually probably deceptively low since there a few very low snow-total outliers. Most of the members have more than that. DC is mean of 0.11", max of 0.52" (lots of sleet as well). Thank You. Somebody with some clout backing me up on that. The top is the only part that warmed, and that top layer even yesterday morning had refrozen here with nighttime temps only reaching about 26. It isn't frozen right now, but it's not packing much heat either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 All northern Maryland counties under WSW Sort of surprised all of Baltimore and Baltimore city plus Howard and Montgomery (at least for N Montgomery's sake) aren't in here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Watches got extended east along the M/D line only. Considering how behind they were on the one decent storm we got, I am taking their stubborness as a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Sort of surprised all of Baltimore and Baltimore city plus Howard and Montgomery (at least for N Montgomery's sake) aren't in here as well. If models keep coming in ore significant then they will likely extend. Safe to say that some of our best storms had LWX playing a bit of catchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Look, I'm down with this storm-- I'm already going to be in Waynsboro-- which is a 2 hour drive to martinsburg or something like that. I'm considering heading up for a while after my meeting. BUT, the NAM is often too wet-- hence the tempered excitement from LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Weird...usually they do watches for everyone and then downgrade to Advisories. Sounds like LWX and the media are going to be playing catch up the entire way. Edit...I think where they have the watches now are areas that should certainly be Warnings. But I think there's still enough of a chance for at least another 1-2 counties south of that area to hoist a watch. Appears to be a poor decision to not include HoCo and Bmore city in that watch. I can understand downgrading later for a WWA, but at least issue the WSW to start with. Like I said earlier, folks are going to be caught off guard. The local weather people make far too big of a deal of the recent warm spell. It's not going to mean anything later tonight once it begins to stick on the roads......especially since SHA probably will not be treating the surfaces before this starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Not sure how they came up with the orientation of that contouring It's how the maps normally are made around here more northwest less southeast...lol....why change it now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Appears to be a poor decision to not include HoCo and Bmore city in that watch. I can understand downgrading later for a WWA, but at least issue the WSW to start with. Like I said earlier, folks are going to be caught off guard. The local weather people make far too big of a deal of the recent warm spell. It's not going to mean anything later tonight once it begins to stick on the roads......especially since SHA probably will not be treating the surfaces before this starts. I guess they are being cautious. Lets not get too caught up in this debate (last storm I remember a bunch of us spent a good 5-6 pages discussing why LWX was wrong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Look, I'm down with this storm-- I'm already going to be in Waynsboro-- which is a 2 hour drive to martinsburg or something like that. I'm considering heading up for a while after my meeting. BUT, the NAM is often too wet-- hence the tempered excitement from LWX. I'm not sure this has anything to do with the wet biased NAM. If that was the case, then I doubt LWX would have issued a WSW for 4-6 inches of snow in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Winds were forecast to shift to NW in the afternoon - It's only 946am and winds are ALREADY NNE - temps have fallen to 44 degrees, down from 52 degrees at 5am. Hmmm....... Naaaaaah - I'll get a lot of sleet anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Thank You. Somebody with some clout backing me up on that. The top is the only part that warmed, and that top layer even yesterday morning had refrozen here with nighttime temps only reaching about 26. It isn't frozen right now, but it's not packing much heat either. I've seen a really good figure that show's soil temperatures at varying depths throughout the year. For most soil types, the temperature below about 1m depth (something like that...) hardly changes. For the depth between 1m and the surface, there is a significant (2-3 month) lag between max/min air temp and max/min soil temp. It's better to think of a "pulse" of warmth or cold that slowly diffuses downward. Only the very top .25-.5" is responsive to air temperature on a daily or semi-daily basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 DCA - 3 inches BWI - 5 inches IAD - 6 inches That's my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I bumped the complain-about-TV-mets thread from last month. Observations on Sterling/TV mets should probably by made over there to keep this one from cluttering up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Winds were forecast to shift to NW in the afternoon - It's only 946am and winds are ALREADY NNE - temps have fallen to 44 degrees, down from 52 degrees at 5am. Hmmm....... Naaaaaah - I'll get a lot of sleet anyways. I am just a few miles south and still at 57....wind just picked up though from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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