Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I was just reviewing the NAM a bit more closely and I suggest not going over MOS for Friday. Tomorrow may actually be the warmer of the two days. RH fields increase during Friday with decoupled (regionally) lows slipping possibly back into the upper 30s across most of the interior below 1000ft els. "If" cloud caps and with big snow pack, we may not get 22kts of 850mb advection to succeed at mixing out too well. This may come to a shock to a lot of folks convinced of a 60-65F day, but if this holds merit we are 45-54f under 70% mean RH between 850mb and 700mb. Part of the trouble is we have most of the wind energy with this cfropa overnight Friday into Saturday, when 40kt gust my rake for a while. I don't see big advention terms in the "warm sector" and in fact, the warm thickness are collapsing S before the cfront even gets here. Am aware of the 18z moderate snow event on the GFS. Biding time on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 NAM MOS has a high of 49F for ORH, so we'll see. GFS is 54F. If we keep good cloud cover, then Friday might not get as warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 If 50F ends up being the high on Friday I have a hard time seeing how I lose more then 8-10" more total. I could see going into the weekend with as low as 8" and as high as 16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I said the other day after Jerry alluded to it, but Monday may have been the warmest day region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I said the other day after Jerry alluded to it, but Monday may have been the warmest day region wide I remember that post... that would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I was just reviewing the NAM a bit more closely and I suggest not going over MOS for Friday. Tomorrow may actually be the warmer of the two days. RH fields increase during Friday with decoupled (regionally) lows slipping possibly back into the upper 30s across most of the interior below 1000ft els. "If" cloud caps and with big snow pack, we may not get 22kts of 850mb advection to succeed at mixing out too well. This may come to a shock to a lot of folks convinced of a 60-65F day, but if this holds merit we are 45-54f under 70% mean RH between 850mb and 700mb. Part of the trouble is we have most of the wind energy with this cfropa overnight Friday into Saturday, when 40kt gust my rake for a while. I don't see big advention terms in the "warm sector" and in fact, the warm thickness are collapsing S before the cfront even gets here. Am aware of the 18z moderate snow event on the GFS. Biding time on that. this just hurts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I was just reviewing the NAM a bit more closely and I suggest not going over MOS for Friday. Tomorrow may actually be the warmer of the two days. RH fields increase during Friday with decoupled (regionally) lows slipping possibly back into the upper 30s across most of the interior below 1000ft els. "If" cloud caps and with big snow pack, we may not get 22kts of 850mb advection to succeed at mixing out too well. This may come to a shock to a lot of folks convinced of a 60-65F day, but if this holds merit we are 45-54f under 70% mean RH between 850mb and 700mb. Part of the trouble is we have most of the wind energy with this cfropa overnight Friday into Saturday, when 40kt gust my rake for a while. I don't see big advention terms in the "warm sector" and in fact, the warm thickness are collapsing S before the cfront even gets here. Am aware of the 18z moderate snow event on the GFS. Biding time on that. Yeah this has been modeled for a few days. I made a post a few days ago, about it possibly being junky with a mid level deck of clouds keeping temps somewhat in check, but still quite warm. Part of the reason that I thought Kevin might retain at least 12" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Tip that would be insane LOL after 2500 posts about the mega torch, 4 different threads and bets flying. I am rooting hard for your analysis to be spot on. I could see people heading out Friday AM with light jackets and frisbees in hand looking to sun on BIRVINGS lawn only to be forced inside . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Tip that would be insane LOL after 2500 posts about the mega torch, 4 different threads and bets flying. I am rooting hard for your analysis to be spot on. I could see people heading out Friday AM with light jackets and frisbees in hand looking to sun on BIRVINGS lawn only to be forced inside . Burly men crying for their mommas while their arms dangle out of car windows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Burly men crying for their mommas while their arms dangle out of car windows... I like kicking off a torch with a sleet downpour. nice surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I like kicking off a torch with a sleet downpour. nice surprise You got that? Strange... I was skiing under an almost full moon and cooling temps that have now reversed. Back up to 33F now after getting to 27F when I first went out Groovy clouds tonight on the mountain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I was just looking at the 0z NAM more in depth...really haven't paid much attention to the models as of late but looks like we could see a nasty inversion Friday...going to back off of my thoughts for 60F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 29.9\22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 I'm down to 27/21. I'm in a relatively cool locale so I'm hoping a few clear hours tomorrow night get me back below freezing for a bit. My gut says in the next 2 days I lose no more than 1/3 of my current snow pack which is between 15-18" on average. Looking forward to some warmth tomorrow despite the snow loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 GFS MOS lowered from 54 to 50F here for Friday on the 00z run. NAM still going for 49F. Possible we don't see much 55+ on Friday. Lots of cloud cover is forecasted on both NAM/GFS. We'll see how it shakes out, but its interesting to see nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 20/18, Mid 40's today with clouds, below freezing tonight, mid/upper 40's tomorrow with clouds before the 1st cold front, back below freezing tomorrow night. Should result in minimal damage. To think Kevin was running around screaming "everyone's snow will be gone!!! All gone!!" Looks like Phil and Scooter will be enjoying some complimentary beverages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Tip that would be insane LOL after 2500 posts about the mega torch, 4 different threads and bets flying. I am rooting hard for your analysis to be spot on. I could see people heading out Friday AM with light jackets and frisbees in hand looking to sun on BIRVINGS lawn only to be forced inside . LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 <br />Burly men crying for their mommas while their arms dangle out of car windows...<br /><br /><br /><br />as you know I was one of the most skeptical of the torch underperforming . maybe the first to mention...we shall see. I still like low 50s cp...40s for us which isnt too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Tip that would be insane LOL after 2500 posts about the mega torch, 4 different threads and bets flying. I am rooting hard for your analysis to be spot on. I could see people heading out Friday AM with light jackets and frisbees in hand looking to sun on BIRVINGS lawn only to be forced inside . This is pretty funny... haha nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 This is pretty funny... haha nice Def Steve's funniest post ever.. just picture folks with long hair and pony-os leaving the house with frisbees tucked under their arms in Members Only windbreakers..only to be shocked when there's no warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 28.9/24, cloudy, lets stay in the 40s today. 36th day of a 12"+ snow depth. 52nd day of 1"+ snow depth. Both should stay intact well into March, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 28.9/24, cloudy, lets stay in the 40s today. 36th day of a 12"+ snow depth. 52nd day of 1"+ snow depth. Both should stay intact well into March, I hope. Perhaps we will, but not off to a great start. Had a low of 27.6 at 2:30 this morning. Now up to 30.9/21. I'd put that as a significant increase before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Already up to 38 here. (BOS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Already 37 here...Le's just keep the clouds around all day today and tomorrow..that will greatly help things. Tonight won't get below 40 most places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 38 and mostly sunny-if it's sunny all day, we're in the 50's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 These clouds may help. You all know the days in the hot season when a beach outing is planned with temps in the 80s only to have clouds move in and keep it 10F cooler. Let's hope the next 2 days follow that script. 36.4 here..was a tad warmer earlier. I will be interested in seeing what BOS comes in with at 8AM as clouds may have dampened (for now) today's torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 38 and mostly sunny-if it's sunny all day, we're in the 50's for sure Being inland helps, 33 at BDR 34 here, but I noticed that we melted all night long.............all night.............all night...............all night long............... Sun is shining brightly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 33.8 now...up from a low of 29.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 Being inland helps, 33 at BDR 34 here, but I noticed that we melted all night long.............all night.............all night...............all night long............... Sun is shining brightly here. you guys torched in SWCT, even over here at work in SECT we had a sleet downpour and temps fell below freezing overnight. I observed no melting overnight at home , well 24 degrees will do that. Down here the roads are dry and parking lots too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 you guys torched in SWCT, even over here at work in SECT we had a sleet downpour and temps fell below freezing overnight. I observed no melting overnight at home , well 24 degrees will do that. Down here the roads are dry and parking lots too. we had graupel last night here as well, went below freezing early now 34, hardly call it that we are torching LOL when the good reverend is 37 4 degrees higher LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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