Pattern Change thread

[CT Rain]

Yeah there's actually a decent chance that many could see brief snow/sleet to begin, even if this tracks pretty far west, but I'd definitely lean mostly rain right now. I'm a bit intrigued by the icing potential in the interior if we can trend the secondary sfc reflection further SE...but I'm not exactly holding my breath about it either.

Yeah ripping a 975mb low over Detroit it's hard to get a good secondary to back winds enough to keep it cold. We'll see though stranger things have happened.

[ORH_wxman]

I dont know... persistence won for the mid-Atlantic last season when multiple times people here were saying "pattern change" its time for these storms to start coming north.

I definitely think there's still a use for persistence especially when talking about a system that's 7 days away and given that the atmosphere tends to repeat itself over and over until something major interrupts the atmospheric system.

Well the storms did come north at the end of Feb and March like we thought....the only problem was that it fell in the form of about 8 inches of qpf 99% rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

I agree 100% and I would not rule out one more cutter behind it.

Luckily for us you haven't been right once since you've joined the boards.

[HoarfrostHubb]

i hope you see some flakes chris

went to pick up some ski gear today....just pricin things out. gonna get some older ski's and bindings...good shape thou for a good price....droppin a bit more on a solid pair of boots.

gettin pass to wa wa this weekend.....as a beginner and it being 40 minutes from house......will hit the slopes multiple times during the week day.

If you had been able to order by yesterday, Nov 17, we could have gotten you the Bronze pass for $229

(GPS club price)

[CoastalWx]

Probably a few hours of paint peeling then down the drain.

[powderfreak]

Well the storms did come north at the end of Feb and March like we thought....the only problem was that it fell in the form of about 8 inches of qpf 99% rain.

Haha boy was that ugly... maybe that's why I forgot about them with the exception of that February 22nd-ish event.

My main point was that I do think there's a use for persistence in forecasting today when wxwatcher said we are 10 years beyond that type of forecasting. I don't think we are beyond persistence forecasting at all... especially at 7 days lead time when the models are at their worst.

And I'm still curious if Kevin is going to take Ray up on his bet, haha. No reply necessary it seems.

[Damage In Tolland]

Haha boy was that ugly... maybe that's why I forgot about them with the exception of that February 22nd-ish event.

My main point was that I do think there's a use for persistence in forecasting today when wxwatcher said we are 10 years beyond that type of forecasting. I don't think we are beyond persistence forecasting at all... especially at 7 days lead time when the models are at their worst.

And I'm still curious if Kevin is going to take Ray up on his bet, haha. No reply necessary it seems.

He doesn't pay up on his bets fully

[OKpowdah]

I dont know... persistence won for the mid-Atlantic last season when multiple times people here were saying "pattern change" its time for these storms to start coming north.

I definitely think there's still a use for persistence especially when talking about a system that's 7 days away and given that the atmosphere tends to repeat itself over and over until something major interrupts the atmospheric system.

Last winter there was clearly the same pattern in place for all of the MA storms though. Saying "it's time for these storms to start coming north" has no meteorological bearing, just came from the inner weenie in us all

In this case, we definitely are moving toward a different theme from the past few months.

[powderfreak]

Last winter there was clearly the same pattern in place for all of the MA storms though. Saying "it's time for these storms to start coming north" has no meteorological bearing, just came from the inner weenie in us all

In this case, we definitely are moving toward a different theme from the past few months.

Yeah, I do agree with you on some aspects of this... but the original quote was from a NWS discussion as to why the 12z EURO would be more likely to be correct than the 12z GFS. Taking the model differences and picking the model that has a solution closer to a persistence forecast at 7 days lead time does seem prudent to me.

Keeping on with last year's analogy... if the models early last February were split with the GFS showing a storm coming way north and crushing all of New England, verses a EURO solution that showed a big Mid-Atlantic hit and then out to sea... following the EURO would be the persistence forecast given what had transpired over the previous 4-6 weeks.

Maybe the bigger question is why would anyone bet against the EURO in the first place, haha.

He doesn't pay up on his bets fully

Fair enough. Even without money though I'd bet that no one sees greater than advisory level snow and/or ice all the way to the Canadian border. But, even an Advisory event would be fun given the time of season, as long as its not an advisory for 10 minutes of freezing drizzle before 1" of 40F rain.

[weatherMA]

hype hype hype

Early look on the big day next week: stormy. And as a large storm banks up against cold air, there are some signs that parts of New England may see some snow and ice! Surely not the last word you'll be hearing about this storm. In sure that by the time we roll into Monday night, it should be front and center on the nightly news.

I just hope they don't revive that Snowmageddon malarkey.

[ORH_wxman]

18z GFS ensemble mean shoves the NAO block all the way west past Davis Straight and Baffin Island. That's a nice look to maybe get one of these northern stream s/ws to amplify.

[weatherwiz]

Wow...pretty drastic differences between the Euro and the GFS for next week. Pretty interesting as to what will end up occurring, both models show a -NAO in place with the Euro actually much more impressive and more neutrally based with the block while the GFS is a bit more west-based. GFS ensembles also show a +PNA in place while the OP has a -PNA in place although trending + right after the storm departs.

[Alpha5]

I'm not excited about T-day event...maybe it will trend colder, but there isn't an overwhelming reason it has to.

That storm has gone from...

suppressed and OTS on the 0z

a GLC on the 12z

and now something resembling an overrunning even on the 18z

Strong-NAO is constant, models cant agree wether its east or west based, PNA is all over the place too

[Ginx snewx]

/>18z GFS ensemble mean shoves the NAO block all the way west past Davis Straight and Baffin Island. That's a nice look to maybe get one of these northern stream s/ws to amplify.

<img src="http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/9532/f216.gif" />

Does it get any better than this? I mean really?

[OKpowdah]

Yeah, I do agree with you on some aspects of this... but the original quote was from a NWS discussion as to why the 12z EURO would be more likely to be correct than the 12z GFS. Taking the model differences and picking the model that has a solution closer to a persistence forecast at 7 days lead time does seem prudent to me.

Keeping on with last year's analogy... if the models early last February were split with the GFS showing a storm coming way north and crushing all of New England, verses a EURO solution that showed a big Mid-Atlantic hit and then out to sea... following the EURO would be the persistence forecast given what had transpired over the previous 4-6 weeks.

Maybe the bigger question is why would anyone bet against the EURO in the first place, haha.

By the way, I don't think that persistence is useless altogether. Like with last winter, when we had the same pattern showing up over and over with the strong -NAO block and much below normal heights in the western Atlantic, persistence was perfect, and a few mets definitely cued in on that. That's why we could say major MA storm coming, even before viewing model guidance specifics.

But in this case, I think we have a pretty solid pattern change on our hands in the Pacific, and favorable -NAO signal in the northwest Altantic. Obviously we'll see exactly how this manifests itself.

very true, pattern change or no pattern change, the Euro is king.

[weatherwiz]

An overrunning event really wouldn't surprise me, while this probably won't be any big storm I think it will deliver some wintry precip to many in SNE. Looks like the system develops over the TN Valley region and right along the strong thermal boundary pushing eastward. The Euro seems much more held back with everything than the GFS is but doesn't the Euro have a tendency to do that?

With the -NAO in place and potentially setting up in a favorable position that allows the SE ridge to break down a bit and allows for the front to continue to push eastward which would allow for the colder air to start working in so if the front can get close enough to the region while the system is still off to our SW it could track in a favorable place to allow for some wintry weather.

Whether it's just rain or not looks like it could be an interesting storm system.

[OKpowdah]

18z GFS ensemble mean shoves the NAO block all the way west past Davis Straight and Baffin Island. That's a nice look to maybe get one of these northern stream s/ws to amplify.

I'm liking that map for a lot of reasons. Like you said, this has a good look to allow a northern s/w to deepen pretty nicely through the Ohio Valley without breaking too early

Second, for the longer term, good to see that block in the northern Pacific still holding up, helping to maintain a channel for arctic air to make it into North America. As long as the Aleutian and Baffin Island ridges don't bridge across, we'll have plenty of wintry potential continuing into December.

[OKpowdah]

Does it get any better than this? I mean really?

Yeah, gotta say, that's a pretty sexy map.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

That storm has gone from...

suppressed and OTS on the 0z

a GLC on the 12z

and now something resembling an overrunning even on the 18z

Strong-NAO is constant, models cant agree wether its east or west based, PNA is all over the place too

SW & W NE is rooting for overrunning events ruling the winter.

[weathafella]

The change is in. Experiencing monumental changes on the west coast since I have been here. Real winter will greet me upon my return from Cabo around midnight 11/27.

[Ginx snewx]

If I lived in CNE to NNE I would be excited for TDAy frozen, I get bashed but look at the setup last year Dec, you will not be as cold but cold enough . JMWO just my weenie opinion. Steve beacon at the Church of ReV Kev, do not forget the sermon scheduled for Tuesday, non believers Atheists welcome.

[Mr Torchey]

Does it get any better than this? I mean really?

sexy

[radarman]

If I lived in CNE to NNE I would be excited for TDAy frozen

It's hard to know whether or not to even root for the SE trend and/or better HP when you have to drive all over the state. ZR would be a friggin' disaster on the roadways. But if we're talking snow, even a front end dump followed by rain, well I can never root against that, traffic be damned.

[OKpowdah]

If I lived in CNE to NNE I would be excited for TDAy frozen, I get bashed but look at the setup last year Dec, you will not be as cold but cold enough . JMWO just my weenie opinion. Steve beacon at the Church of ReV Kev, do not forget the sermon scheduled for Tuesday, non believers Atheists welcome.

Are you thinking of 12/9 last year?

[Mr Torchey]

Luckily for us you haven't been right once since you've joined the boards.

[New England Storm]

An overrunning event really wouldn't surprise me, while this probably won't be any big storm I think it will deliver some wintry precip to many in SNE. Looks like the system develops over the TN Valley region and right along the strong thermal boundary pushing eastward. The Euro seems much more held back with everything than the GFS is but doesn't the Euro have a tendency to do that?

With the -NAO in place and potentially setting up in a favorable position that allows the SE ridge to break down a bit and allows for the front to continue to push eastward which would allow for the colder air to start working in so if the front can get close enough to the region while the system is still off to our SW it could track in a favorable place to allow for some wintry weather.

Whether it's just rain or not looks like it could be an interesting storm system.

And it looks like we have better chances do the road. It will be great to have something to track.

[radarman]

Are you thinking of 12/9 last year?

That was exactly what first came to mind for me, but on further review, the antecedent cold air in this pattern is more the result of the UL low pinwheeling NE of us, as opposed to ageostrophic flow from a surface high. Seems a little easier to rout out the cold in this pattern, but who knows.

[Mr Torchey]

44/29

light rain/ice pellets

temp has dropped 5 degrees in 25 minutes

[Mr Torchey]

shows up nicely on radar over sw ct.

[weatherwiz]

And it looks like we have better chances do the road. It will be great to have something to track.

Yeah, post-Thanksgiving is where it's at.