ski MRG Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 LOL Nite, Pete. GN Ray, back to bed for me as well. I'm in Winter mode, just wake up around now to see the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 You can't find a weak Nino that was bad in eastern SNE. I'm sure there will be one some day though...in fact '79-'80 was nearly a weak Nino that really sucked here, but it didn't qualify so the record is still clean. '69-'70 was a very good winter, but nothing that stands out. Most places were "just" 15-30% above average here and it was very cold too so the snow pack stuck around...it would grade as an A- winter I think in my book. Boston had over 50" that winter and I think Ray had something int he 70s....we had something in the 70s too. Wasn't 03-04 a borderline weak Niño (officially positive neutral) that was good for NYC but only mediocre for SNE? What I'm hoping for is a three-year strong La Niña followed by a couple of weak Niños. That seemed to do the trick with the brutally cold and often snowy winters of 76-77, 77-78, and 78-79. Bank some cold and then spend it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 Wasn't 03-04 a borderline weak Niño (officially positive neutral) that was good for NYC but only mediocre for SNE? It got close to a Nino in the early fall, but it disintegrated pretty fast after October when it spiked a pretty decent reading IIRC. SNE tends to really benefit from those -0.7C to -1.0 Ninos on the trimonthly. Those are years like '68-'69, '69-'70, '76-'77, '77-'78 and '04-'05. Whatever the reason, they have been general big winters here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Euro ensembles are pretty warm on Thursday...has 850's in the +4 to +8 range then the front blasts through on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 The ensuing pattern doesn't look all too bad either. Coldest anomalies stay just to our NW but we are probably definitely a bit below-average with that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Euro ensembles are pretty warm on Thursday...has 850's in the +4 to +8 range then the front blasts through on Friday. What happens after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 What happens after? Looks much more favorable than the deterministic run...it isn't as quick to start bringing in milder pacific air into the US. It's definitely much cooler throughout the entire US basically than the deterministic run. Kind of looks like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 The Euro ensembles actually retrograde the GOA low a bit west after 300 hours....toward the Aleutions. That's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Well good look on the 0z runs tonight so will end the day on that note and get some sleep...I totally did not realize today was Friday, good thing I remembered, it's the only day I can work until January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 What an awful Euro run last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Still looks like it could be interesting for nne next week, but cold rain for most. Like Will said, the 00z euro ensembles warm, but 12z becomes an ice box again. It looks like the warming at the end of the run is probably due to low pressure moving into New England, but then the cold air looks like it builds behind it across Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 You gotta admit that was one sick snow pack that developed here that month...I've post plenty of pics from that same vantage point and none of them come remotely close to that. What a year that was. Obviously you had a "merely" above average season with like 75" or whatever it was. But pretty awesome. Feb/Mar 2001 is to my area what Feb 1969 was to yours. Thelocals up here talk about Feb69 with reverence. I am friends with the town road agent who plows town roads. He said fully 5 ft fell in that feb 69 storm and he's never seen anything like it since. Last Jan when for a little while at least, it looked like the retrograder was going to be a big dea,sl he aid the state in a planning meeting told them it would be potentially a multi day storm comparable to Feb 69. He asked me if that was really going to happen. I said "you need to talk to Tip". This guy loves snow and I had to let him down gently a couple of days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 What an awful Euro run last nite chances increasing for snow on the coast over the holiday weekend?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 The ensembles members for both the GFS and Canadian do show at least 1 if not multiple storm chances from Thanksgiving weekend, on. I know the ensemble mean doesn't really show something verbatim, but I don't expect it to do so, at this time range since it is a smoothed out mean. The fact that members show some storm chances, at least puts the idea on the table. I feel pretty strong that we'll have opportunities through the first weekend of December and probably beyond that. It's obviously a matter of details, because I don't think every storm will be frozen for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 chances increasing for snow on the coast over the holiday weekend?? The weaker and crappier the low on T-Day, perhaps the better our chances. Very strong s/w comes in that weekend. Maybe Ray's favorite NORLUN??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 What an awful Euro run last nite Is your cold still ten days away? Goodmorning Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 The weaker and crappier the low on T-Day, perhaps the better our chances. Very strong s/w comes in that weekend. Maybe Ray's favorite NORLUN??? I think the weaker the better at this point, Whatever cold air is around won't erode as quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 chances increasing for snow on the coast over the holiday weekend?? Think for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Think for all of us Hallelujah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Think for all of us Bless you rev, When is the next sermon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 The weaker and crappier the low on T-Day, perhaps the better our chances. Very strong s/w comes in that weekend. Maybe Ray's favorite NORLUN??? yeah...stick that baroclinic zone a bit closer to the coast and we're off to the norlun races. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Think for all of us CAN I HEAR AN, AMEN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 CAN I HEAR AN, AMEN? "The path of the righteous weenie is beset on all snow events and by the inequities of the selfish and warminista thoughts of evil energy mets. Blessed is he, who in the name of snow and good will, sheperds the weenies through the dark times of torches. For he is truly his weenie's keeper and the finder of lost weenies. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious snow storms, those who attempt to poison and destroy my snowpack. And you will know I am rev kev, when I lay my weenie upon you." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 CAN I HEAR AN, AMEN? Chuck em' high, chuck em' low........praise the good Lord, it gon' snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 "The path of the righteous weenie is beset on all snow events and by the inequities of the selfish and warminista thoughts of evil energy mets. Blessed is he, who in the name of snow and good will, sheperds the weenies through the dark times of torches. For he is truly his weenie's keeper and the finder of lost weenies. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious snow storms, those who attempt to poison and destroy my snowpack. And you will know I am rev kev, when I lay my weenie upon you." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Dear GOd, I almost spit out my oatmeal (maple brown sugar) reading those!! Great stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Great stuff. lol. I can see the congregation getting whipped into a frenzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Bless you rev, When is the next sermon? Whenever the church fixes my laptop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Whenever the church fixes my laptop You are websensed Rev......just post from your phone during the day...don't push your luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Rev Kev is speaking in tongues Let his Laptop Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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