ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2010 Share Posted November 11, 2010 Here's a good look at the pattern on the 12z Euro at D10....it still hasa -EPO, however, the PNA is not positive..its actually probably negative there. This creates a bit of a gradient pattern...the -NAO helps get the cold into here and not let it escape north in Canada...but the RNA pattern also limits how far south the good cold gets, so you see the gradient developing over the midwest and south fo the Great Lakes and into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2010 Author Share Posted November 11, 2010 I don't care if we get below normal in November, I just hope the patterns rolls forward into December with the good cold overhead or sitting nearby. We'll be below normal in this next regime, maybe a day or two where it gets darn cold, but the true arctic stays nw. All I ask is that the nao is favorable, and the PAC GOA monster holds off so that it doeesn't taint the cold in western Canada, as we head into December. It's possible that the cold shot next weekend means business. Then we moderate afterwards, but what happens after seems up in the air. I think we'll cool off again, but by how much is up in the air. I think the key is to continue ridging near AK and not have a monster GOA low. Heights lower in that region, but it would take a pretty strong low to blow torch Canada. I just want Canada cold. What a gradient on the euro ensembles by hr 264. Where is it... It looks like the ensembles are coming in more with the idea that we moderate some after the initial cold shot. The more sustained cold looks to be in the extreme N Rockies and the N plains. It looks like perhaps closer to Thanksgiving we could see the NAO shove some of that Canadian cold eastward. Good news....cp rejoice. Pretty much over our head. It trended stronger with the nao blocking, but also with the -pna. It is still technically cooler than normal, but OH valley warms. Pretty classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2010 Author Share Posted November 11, 2010 SE ridge is definitely fighting back on the ensemble mean. It looked like it took a step towards the gfs out west. After having endured that hell some call last winter, let it fight....I'll take my chances with that. The most significant signal on the ensembles is a very robust east based -NAO...it has the ridge slamming right up into Iceland. That is definitely a cold signal for SE Canada and perhaps leaking into New England at times. Looks like it may be showing just that on the ensembles as some troughing tries to develop in the east towards the end of the run. i'm curious, does warmth still overperform and cold still underperform? someone told me once that the nao has been negative all spring and summer...and he said something like "we know how that worked out." GOA low starts to come back around that time too. That in conjunction with a -NAO tends to move the coldest anomalies to the GL and Northeast. Yeah that's been a signal there for a few runs. Heights rise in the southwest as well. I don't mind a weak GOA low..maybe it gives it the boot, similar to what you said. A weak or "not strong enough" GOA low isn't bad when we still have cross polar flow north of it over the top of AK. Almost like a pseudo split flow up there...we see part of the flow split and go SW into the GOA while the rest of the flow is still over the top...that's not bad for us at all. It cuts off the really frigid stuff from N rockies and plains and beginds to shift it E into the Great Lakes and NE and eastern Canada...its not as frigid to the east though since its only partial cross polar flow by that point in the game...but we really don't care too much as long as its cold enough for snow...and it certainly could be in that pattern. East based vs west based. big diff's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 GFS looks pretty chilly with that initial cold shot but it's really short lived. Looks like this could be the coldest airmass of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Northern Stream Shortwave trough could bring a coastal storm to eastern New England in the 18-20th timeframe. Again we need the the NAO block to respond to the short lived breakdown in the +EPO ridge and -PNA troughing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 makes for a rather complex long-range pattern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 we'll see how this evolves, but you can see (at least for right now) why any cool/cold shot a week from now is probably rather transient...and why scooter likes to tip-toe through the tulips for pattern changes. tough to keep cold locked in with the jet racing across like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Does an east based -NAO gum up the works enough to cause storms to slow down and intensity near us or do we need a west based one to do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 I've added a thread so we can just keep a list of who's made it to the new site. Add your name by: 1) reply to message 2) add your name (and old one if you changed it) 3) remove the word "quote" from the end of the prior message 4) add reply http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/309-members-who-cross-over-let-people-know-youre-here/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Very interesting as to what will aspire over the next few weeks. Looks like the system on the 17th will be mainly rain and then as that departs the cold front pushes through and some Arctic air works into the region, then around the 20th looks like we could see some sort of coastal development which could give us a shot at some snow. After this we get quite cold as some much colder Arctic air works in as the NAO continues to tank and an east-based block sets up. Looks like though the cold shot could be rather brief despite us being locked into a -NAO regime. Looks like PNA/EPO could have a lot to say as to what exactly will happen...will the brunt of the cold get shunted off to our west and into the Northern Plains/upper mid-west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Does an east based -NAO gum up the works enough to cause storms to slow down and intensity near us or do we need a west based one to do that? You guys in New England can still easily see a bigger storm with an east based -NAO. For rest of us, it's much harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 still a very complex long-wave pattern in the coming week or two. low confidence long-range, imo. everything crashes next week for a time...the NAO goes strongly negative, the EPO crashes and the PNA goes strongly negative. but just as quickly, the EPO starts to rebound and by day 10 it's back to positive and the gefs makes it strongly + in the day 10 onward period. a lot of conflicting signals in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 still a very complex long-wave pattern in the coming week or two. low confidence long-range, imo. everything crashes next week for a time...the NAO goes strongly negative, the EPO crashes and the PNA goes strongly negative. but just as quickly, the EPO starts to rebound and by day 10 it's back to positive and the gefs makes it strongly + in the day 10 onward period. a lot of conflicting signals in there. Seems more like some solid evidence of a big time pattern change upcoming, not just short term either but potentially a pattern that will set in place for at least several-plus days. Seeing all these conflicting signals and fluctuations within the models could be a good sign. LEt's just hope though the EPO does not trend that positive, seems like despite the strongly -NAO the EPO becomes so negative and with the PNA trending positive that just opens the flood gates for warm Pacific air to invade the US and this keeps the solid cold locked into Canada, despite the -NAO look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 still a very complex long-wave pattern in the coming week or two. low confidence long-range, imo. everything crashes next week for a time...the NAO goes strongly negative, the EPO crashes and the PNA goes strongly negative. but just as quickly, the EPO starts to rebound and by day 10 it's back to positive and the gefs makes it strongly + in the day 10 onward period. a lot of conflicting signals in there. But perhaps this is the kinda patter we will have this winter, lots of conflicting signals and quick changes, lots of ups and downs. I prefer it that way so that we dont' get stuck in a bad pattern for too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Seems more like some solid evidence of a big time pattern change upcoming, not just short term either but potentially a pattern that will set in place for at least several-plus days. Seeing all these conflicting signals and fluctuations within the models could be a good sign. LEt's just hope though the EPO does not trend that positive, seems like despite the strongly -NAO the EPO becomes so negative and with the PNA trending positive that just opens the flood gates for warm Pacific air to invade the US and this keeps the solid cold locked into Canada, despite the -NAO look. yeah we'll see how it goes. with such big fluctuations, and perhaps rapid fluctuations, it's tough for me to feel too confident one way or the other. certainly seems like there will be an abundance of polar/arctic air north of the border during the second half of november. i'm just not certain how much manages to spill down - at least spill down and lock in place. i'm not willing to lean one way more than another yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 yeah we'll see how it goes. with such big fluctuations, and perhaps rapid fluctuations, it's tough for me to feel too confident one way or the other. certainly seems like there will be an abundance of polar/arctic air north of the border during the second half of november. i'm just not certain how much manages to spill down - at least spill down and lock in place. i'm not willing to lean one way more than another yet. Totally agree, it's really hard at this point to gauge which way we will go. Some signals point to us becoming quite cold and others point to us being not as cold. Alot is going to have to do where certain features setup and that's pretty tough to pinpoint at this time. One thing for certain though is it appears parts of Canada are going to become extremely cold with 850mb temps in the -20C to -30C range...as long as we can get that cold up in Northern and central Canada we should see it spill into the Northeast at times, even if it remain brief. That's one thing I think we will see occur this winter, we will never be in a set pattern for too long, we'll see some pretty nasty Arctic outbreaks but they will be short-lived then we will see quite a warm-up but those will be short-lived as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 But perhaps this is the kinda patter we will have this winter, lots of conflicting signals and quick changes, lots of ups and downs. I prefer it that way so that we dont' get stuck in a bad pattern for too long. My thoughts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Phil has it right. I think we have a warmup T-week with the cooldown perhaps starting Wednesday or Thanksgiving day. The main cold still looks to stay west, but man the -nao depicted is very strong. I think eventually the cold will bleed in, probably in steps. It's not a classic cold delivery for sne, but it could make for stormier conditions, hopefully combined with enough cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 LOL, what a weenie run of the 06z gfs op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Phil has it right. I think we have a warmup T-week with the cooldown perhaps starting Wednesday or Thanksgiving day. The main cold still looks to stay west, but man the -nao depicted is very strong. I think eventually the cold will bleed in, probably in steps. It's not a classic cold delivery for sne, but it could make for stormier conditions, hopefully combined with enough cold. Hopefully the -NAO helps to keep the storm track more towards the coast and this would hopefully allow for some colder air to work into the region as well during the onset of s storm. We don't even really need to be in the core of the cold to get decent snow potential, in fact if the core of the cold was over us given the pattern that would be in place wouldn't that lead to a more suppressed storm track and storms going out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Hopefully the -NAO helps to keep the storm track more towards the coast and this would hopefully allow for some colder air to work into the region as well during the onset of s storm. We don't even really need to be in the core of the cold to get decent snow potential, in fact if the core of the cold was over us given the pattern that would be in place wouldn't that lead to a more suppressed storm track and storms going out to sea? Yeah we don't want the core of the cold overhead, otherwise it's suppression. For my likes, I'd like to see it a little more cooler, but don't forget I live near the water, so I'm biased. As it is right now, there are signs some good cold may get here with a pattern like that, but it's still somewhat questionable how cold it gets. It likely will be below normal, perhaps a lot at times....we'll just have to see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Yeah we don't want the core of the cold overhead, otherwise it's suppression. For my likes, I'd like to see it a little more cooler, but don't forget I live near the water, so I'm biased. As it is right now, there are signs some good cold may get here with a pattern like that, but it's still somewhat questionable how cold it gets. It likely will be below normal, perhaps a lot at times....we'll just have to see how it goes. We'll just have to see how we trend over the next several days, my guess is the brunt of the cold stays off to our west but I think at times we will get some of that to work in and we see like two to perhaps three day periods of extremely below-average temperatures then the pattern relaxes a bit and we moderate somewhat, but were still below-average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 JB says it's coming..heavy heavy winter . However I see I am quickly going to be confronted with either having to put on some fat quick, or make sure I have several layers of clothing ready. Winter is getting ready to attack, nationwide and the pattern of cross polar flow and neg ao and nao means its liable to get stormy too. Alot of people will find Thanksgiving this year is far different from last years relative tranquility across the nation. The 06z run of the GFS is more in line with how I have been thinking this would evolve. First trough digs through, second one is flatter and comes out faster in the west and cold spreads east again quickly next week. The euro is now my whipping boy, as it is starting to play its games. Its not that there cant be a trough in the west for a time later next week.. its just that it has to come out fast given the other parameters. And with arctic air available ( a monster positive has build in ne Siberia and into the northwest part of N America. cross polar flow, look out below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 JB says it's coming..heavy heavy winter . However I see I am quickly going to be confronted with either having to put on some fat quick, or make sure I have several layers of clothing ready. Winter is getting ready to attack, nationwide and the pattern of cross polar flow and neg ao and nao means its liable to get stormy too. Alot of people will find Thanksgiving this year is far different from last years relative tranquility across the nation. The 06z run of the GFS is more in line with how I have been thinking this would evolve. First trough digs through, second one is flatter and comes out faster in the west and cold spreads east again quickly next week. The euro is now my whipping boy, as it is starting to play its games. Its not that there cant be a trough in the west for a time later next week.. its just that it has to come out fast given the other parameters. And with arctic air available ( a monster positive has build in ne Siberia and into the northwest part of N America. cross polar flow, look out below. That settles it, time to bring the spring clothing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 We'll just have to see how we trend over the next several days, my guess is the brunt of the cold stays off to our west but I think at times we will get some of that to work in and we see like two to perhaps three day periods of extremely below-average temperatures then the pattern relaxes a bit and we moderate somewhat, but were still below-average. I actually like the 00z euro ensemble depiction. It has a nice high ridging all the way to the south from the Canadian prairies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 I actually like the 00z euro ensemble depiction. It has a nice high ridging all the way to the south from the Canadian prairies. Oh nice! I actually didn't see the oz Euro ensemble's...actually I don't even know where to see them, are they free as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 I actually like the 00z euro ensemble depiction. It has a nice high ridging all the way to the south from the Canadian prairies. Cross polar flow..look out below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Cross polar flow..look out below Heavy heavy low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 It looks like the real deal may be coming in near Thanksgiving and beyond. We have a mini torch early that week it looks like after the initial cold shot next weekend..... like we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 It looks like the real deal may be coming in near Thanksgiving and beyond. We have a mini torch early that week it looks like after the initial cold shot next weekend..... like we thought. Cross polar flow..look out below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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