CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 18z GFS ensemble mean shoves the NAO block all the way west past Davis Straight and Baffin Island. That's a nice look to maybe get one of these northern stream s/ws to amplify. Look at that ridge over the Aleutian Islands. That is what we need for a large east coast snowstorm to occur and the models are showing it for after the Thanksgiving Day storm. I'm liking that map for a lot of reasons. Like you said, this has a good look to allow a northern s/w to deepen pretty nicely through the Ohio Valley without breaking too early Second, for the longer term, good to see that block in the northern Pacific still holding up, helping to maintain a channel for arctic air to make it into North America. As long as the Aleutian and Baffin Island ridges don't bridge across, we'll have plenty of wintry potential continuing into December. I agree Sam, the Aleutian Ridging is the most important factor for a favorable pattern for EC snowstorm development for the last week of NOV into the early few weeks of DEC. Ensembles show a persistent central Aleutian Island Ridge maintaining throughout their forecasting range. It will be interesting to watch this evolve in the guidance over the next 10 days. Also what will the Polar Vortex do as well. GFS has shown quite the packing over the open North Atlantic Ocean east of new foundland, cn as the PV is east based and the central Atlantic ridge tries to amplify into Atlantic Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I'm not excited about T-day event...maybe it will trend colder, but there isn't an overwhelming reason it has to. i'll be more intrigued if it becomes a strung out piece of crap. that would increase the odds for parts of the area to make out a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Significant LES event looks on tap for the KBUF metro region and Niagra frontier as well as western NY/PA regions within the SW flow lee of the Lakes Ontario and Erie. Lake water temperatures are near 10-12C and 850mb temperatures approach -10 to -12C on Friday and later relax towards Sunday. Two day event could be harsh. Instability parameters reach close to extreme as delta t differentials approach 20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 If you had been able to order by yesterday, Nov 17, we could have gotten you the Bronze pass for $229 (GPS club price) F$%K!!!!!!!!! C'mon are you kidding! save 110$ would be nice. i looked at website a couple days ago ....and saw price was now 339 i said wtf? but if i knew they still had it at 229 i would have bought it yesterday....this Pisses me off. on another note Rev Kev.....Rev Kev.....lets get that secondary in there and hope the main low doesn't bomb.....is every damn western LP gonna bomb? i'm losin' faith....help me help me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 F$%K!!!!!!!!! C'mon are you kidding! save 110$ would be nice. i looked at website a couple days ago ....and saw price was now 339 i said wtf? but if i knew they still had it at 229 i would have bought it yesterday....this Pisses me off. on another note Rev Kev.....Rev Kev.....lets get that secondary in there and hope the main low doesn't bomb.....is every damn western LP gonna bomb? i'm losin' faith....help me help me The $229 was if it was through a group (someone starts a defacto "club" registered with the mountain, gets people to get passes through them at discounted rate, if they get 12 people they get a free Bronze pass, etc.). A guy I know sets this up each year. School groups also get these discounts, sometimes until Dec 1. My son got his Bronze for $229 and 6 afternoon lessons for $48. I got mine Saturday Tends to get crowded during peak times. You will do well to go midweek days. You will be with geezers and weenies. Anyway, the models seem to be pointing at Nov 25-28 as the big flip??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Rev Kev.....Rev Kev.....lets get that secondary in there and hope the main low doesn't bomb.....is every damn western LP gonna bomb? i'm losin' faith....help me help me Brother, I sense that you are feeling trapped and desperate. Breathe free with the power of faith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 halleluja Maine Jay Hawk Dave so are there any da%&"* deals left? is there anything i could do to get a discount below 339?!! also interested in lesson's . for me and the Gf....any suggestions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 halleluja Maine Jay Hawk Dave so are there any da%&"* deals left? is there anything i could do to get a discount below 339?!! also interested in lesson's . for me and the Gf....any suggestions I think your goose is cooked unless you get a part time job making chicken fingers there. Are you a college student? They have the UPass for $189.00 Or do you have Fallon as a health care provider? You can use some benefit they have to pay $400 toward a pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Exactly...and given the setup and players on the field..the only way for this to trend is south and colder.. some don't seem to understand that You continue to speak, yet you won't bet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 You continue to speak, yet you won't bet.... I know, I made a bet with him that a few days this upcoming week would get close to 60F, if not maybe a tad higher, he never accepted but he kept replying with I'd be wrong and that the models continued to trend colder and colder...then he finally gave it and realized he was going to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 You continue to speak, yet you won't bet.... Don't worry, nzucker will be here soon to tell us the pattern will torch right back up again after Thanksgiving weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Are you taking Ray's bet? Ignored...shocker.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Well his job is to say it will trend snowier/colder regardless of objective analysis. I'm not saying that snow/ice isn't possible out of this system, but I'd probably lean toward mostly rain at this juncture. I like the pattern behind it better. Welcome to reality, population you, CT Rain and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 30-45 days of fun? I'm not sold it ends after that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 He doesn't pay up on his bets fully Not sure what you mean, but what I am sure of is that no one else would back that faulty assertion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Significant LES event looks on tap for the KBUF metro region and Niagra frontier as well as western NY/PA regions within the SW flow lee of the Lakes Ontario and Erie. Lake water temperatures are near 10-12C and 850mb temperatures approach -10 to -12C on Friday and later relax towards Sunday. Two day event could be harsh. Instability parameters reach close to extreme as delta t differentials approach 20C. No one cares; wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 Not sure what you mean, but what I am sure of is that no one else would back that faulty assertion. You lost a bet to me back in 2007...and you paid up. So no complaints from me. I think you owe zwyts $50 for the Red Sox not winning 95+ games, but you won't see him until the conference probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 The bottom line is that some call me "negative", yet I layed a couple of bets on the table and not one person had the balls to take either.....just as I had expected. Enjoy the tday rain....the fun comes thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 You lost a bet to me back in 2007...and you paid up. So no complaints from me. I think you owe zwyts $50 for the Red Sox not winning 95+ games, but you won't see him until the conference probably. Remind me and I'll pay; he offered to let me off because of the injuries and I refused. What was the bet I lost in 2007 btw..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Thunderstorms on Thanksgiving Day? Don't rule them out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 Thunderstorms on Thanksgiving Day? Don't rule them out..... CF is taking forever this run to come east. It might have a torch on T-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 CF is taking forever this run to come east. It might have a torch on T-day. Seems logical though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Thunderstorms on Thanksgiving Day? Don't rule them out..... Most of us have a better shot at that than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Are you talking about the 0z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 Are you talking about the 0z euro? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Most of us have a better shot at that than snow. I'd give snow a zero and a squall line at least 50% at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Most of us have a better shot at that than snow. I mentioned thunderstorms possible last night then Kevin pounced on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Yes. I wonder which will be correct, the Euro or GFS? Euro has been much slower with the timing than the GFS has. It might be best to just take a middle ground or something, not sure if there is really anything to hold it back that much, front doesn't appear to be that parallel to the UL trough and it's not like there is ridging out ahead of it is all that strong. I suppose the wave of low pressure developing along the front could help slow it down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I mentioned thunderstorms possible last night then Kevin pounced on me. Kev loves to run his mouth and get a rise out of folks....thats it......he declares victory once you lose composure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 I mentioned thunderstorms possible last night then Kevin pounced on me. Eh, I don't think we'd get warm sectored at the sfc enough for tstorms...maybe something elevated. I dunno. Its still pretty far out and the run to run swings are very wild. Given its still 6-7 days out, I wouldn't put much stock in any given deterministic run. That is some cold stuff though in Canada read to come in once we get that first storm out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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