40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Eh, I don't think we'd get warm sectored at the sfc enough for tstorms...maybe something elevated. I dunno. Its still pretty far out and the run to run swings are very wild. Given its still 6-7 days out, I wouldn't put much stock in any given deterministic run. That is some cold stuff though in Canada read to come in once we get that first storm out of the way. I know its far out, but the most likely outcome seems to be the most boring one imaginable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Kev loves to run his mouth and get a rise out of folks....thats it......he declares victory once you lose composure. It's fun arguing back with Kevin. Eh, I don't think we'd get warm sectored at the sfc enough for tstorms...maybe something elevated. I dunno. Its still pretty far out and the run to run swings are very wild. Given its still 6-7 days out, I wouldn't put much stock in any given deterministic run. That is some cold stuff though in Canada read to come in once we get that first storm out of the way. Our best bet would probably be elevated, it's tough enough this time of year to get anything sfc-based here. Once that first storm passes then the real fun potentially begins, were definitely going to get colder...how cold it remains to be seen but that doesn't really matter anyways. I think the pattern will gives us lots of clipper potential and even if the models aren't showing anything exciting as far as storm potential goes models aren't going to really pick up on a clipper type system this far out anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I know its far out, but the most likely outcome seems to be the most boring one imaginable. At least we'll have the Patriots to watch that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Eh, I don't think we'd get warm sectored at the sfc enough for tstorms...maybe something elevated. I dunno. Its still pretty far out and the run to run swings are very wild. Given its still 6-7 days out, I wouldn't put much stock in any given deterministic run. That is some cold stuff though in Canada read to come in once we get that first storm out of the way. There really isn't much support for much of a cold shot at all-besides the NAO going neggy....PNA looks disgusting, frankly..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 There really isn't much support for much of a cold shot at all-besides the NAO going neggy....PNA looks disgusting, frankly..... The models seem all over the place with the PNA right now and even so if it does go negative it isn't all that extremely negative. The -NAO block that sets up is so strong though and since the SE ridge is relaxing some it's helping to draw in colder air....plus you have that ridge building into the western US/western Canada and with the east-based block the pattern will basically force that cold air to sink southward and some of it will dump into the Northeast. We don't even need that much cold though, as long as we are just slightly below-normal temperature wise most of us should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 There really isn't much support for much of a cold shot at all-besides the NAO going neggy....PNA looks disgusting, frankly..... PNA actually does look like it might go briefly positive (or at least near neutral) the weekend after Thanksgiving. But a -NAO block like is being depicted will make it cold regardless of the PNA...it might keep the core of the cold further north in SE Canada and New England/Northeast vs the southeast/M.A. if the PNA can't get positive, but we really don't care about that given where we live. I do think it will get pretty cold even down there though because of how potent this NAO block is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 PNA is much more correlated with the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast than it is here in the Northeast, is the NAO signal is weak and the PNA signal is dominant than the PNA may have some sort of impact on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 The models seem all over the place with the PNA right now and even so if it does go negative it isn't all that extremely negative. The -NAO block that sets up is so strong though and since the SE ridge is relaxing some it's helping to draw in colder air....plus you have that ridge building into the western US/western Canada and with the east-based block the pattern will basically force that cold air to sink southward and some of it will dump into the Northeast. We don't even need that much cold though, as long as we are just slightly below-normal temperature wise most of us should be good. We are going to need a PNA ridge to help though Wiz...otherwise you are going to have to time every shortwave disturbance that comes in via the PAC jet. And if there isn't a trough in place in place on the EC it's a fast clipper or a fantasy....just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 We are going to need a PNA ridge to help though Wiz...otherwise you are going to have to time every shortwave disturbance that comes in via the PAC jet. And if there isn't a trough in place in place on the EC it's a fast clipper or a fantasy....just my opinion I think with help from the atl and not the PAC we maybe more prone to Miller Bs, which is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 Euro retrogrades the SE Canada PV lobe northwest, lol. What a bizarre solution. It seems like the 00z run keeps wanting to do something bizarre to minimize the cold/snow pattern and then when the 12z run comes out, it brings it back. Its been doing that the last couple of days. Regardless, we'll see what the ensembles say in about 90 minutes. The OP run has a hellecious west based NAO block though....so its a bit weird what its doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 We are going to need a PNA ridge to help though Wiz...otherwise you are going to have to time every shortwave disturbance that comes in via the PAC jet. And if there isn't a trough in place in place on the EC it's a fast clipper or a fantasy....just my opinion A PNA ridge out west will definitely help out and as Will said it's possible the PNA briefly becomes positive for a time bring next week. If we do see a -NAO block like that though given the strength that alone could be enough to offset a lack of PNA ridge, what it could do is help to setup a very nice thermal gradient over the region which could really end up benefiting some of us, well at least those of us on the colder side of the boundary. Our storms this year will probably be quite messy with mixing issues, tight gradients, etc...the upcoming pattern could certainly deliver but it might not be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I think with help from the atl and not the PAC we maybe more prone to Miller Bs, which is fine by me. I think you are probably all set.....you'll score as you usually do with the SWFE's...big winter. West to east border screamers that dig just enough.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 After the trough moves off the coast it really wants to return things to a more zonal flow...I'm not so sure we are going to see that occur that soon. The look of the pattern though it sets in place just after the front plows through though looks pretty good...it just doesn't want to keep it that long. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles have to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I think you are probably all set.....you'll score as you usually do with the SWFE's...big winter. West to east border screamers that dig just enough.... Is Joe here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 A PNA ridge out west will definitely help out and as Will said it's possible the PNA briefly becomes positive for a time bring next week. If we do see a -NAO block like that though given the strength that alone could be enough to offset a lack of PNA ridge, what it could do is help to setup a very nice thermal gradient over the region which could really end up benefiting some of us, well at least those of us on the colder side of the boundary. Our storms this year will probably be quite messy with mixing issues, tight gradients, etc...the upcoming pattern could certainly deliver but it might not be pretty. I'm just hoping for my early December fling before this thing goes ballistic...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Is Joe here No...lol...it's me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 No...lol...it's me LOL I know this is you, but I mean has Joe found his way to this board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I'm just hoping for my early December fling before this thing goes ballistic...... I feel you...I think for us here in CT if we don't have a solid December we could be in trouble. March may have potential...we'll see how that looks as we get closer but I think January will be rather brutal to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 LOL I know this is you, but I mean has Joe found his way to this board.... yeah he is litcheifledlollipop or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I feel you...I think for us here in CT if we don't have a solid December we could be in trouble. March may have potential...we'll see how that looks as we get closer but I think January will be rather brutal to us. I think all of NE dances naked in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 LOL I know this is you, but I mean has Joe found his way to this board.... He has... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 yeah he is litcheifledlollipop or something. Oh ok....thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 He has... Good.....I really enjoyed hanging with you both....fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 I think all of NE dances naked in March. March 2001 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I think all of NE dances naked in March. I've been tending to lean that way...especially if the Nina can peak sooner rather than later and we can develop some MJO waves and tropical forcing going. I also think this could be quite the severe wx season in the Plains as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 March 2001 redux? Probably better along the coast and more temperate across the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2010 Author Share Posted November 19, 2010 Probably better along the coast and more temperate across the interior. If I don't get 40" this March, I'm considering it a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I feel you...I think for us here in CT if we don't have a solid December we could be in trouble. March may have potential...we'll see how that looks as we get closer but I think January will be rather brutal to us. Considering the fact that you have 60+ weather years ahead of you my good man, I wouldn't sweat it....big severe season next year? I think so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 If I don't get 40" this March, I'm considering it a fail. I'll be lucky if I even see that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 If I don't get 40" this March, I'm considering it a fail. You are being me if I were from ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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