CT Rain Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 be advised...nzucker will get wood at day 8/9 Wow we moderate pretty fast on the Euro. 2 days in the freezer than by Sunday afternoon we inch back toward normal. Pattern looks ready to reload though and maybe an active storm track. I think climbing out of the deep cold and heading to normal with cold banked to the north is probably the best thing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 it's just some light rains...maybe some ice across N MA Sounds like a big step in the right direction then nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 50's for Dobbs Ferry. Knee high socks replaced with ankle sox. Tubes will love the 5h height rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Tubes will love the 5h height rise. Maybe he'll go no socks by Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Maybe he'll go no socks by Monday! LOL...what a disaster that run is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Boy the gfs ensembles are hinting as something around 12/1- 12/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 LOL...what a disaster that run is. Yeah it ain't pretty. Above normal by Monday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Boy the gfs ensembles are hinting as something around 12/1- 12/3. they have a nice pattern through the entire 16 day run really. nothing bad about the 12z ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 The Euro retrogrades the closed low so far west it starts causing us problems. GEFS are much further east... and not over Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 they have a nice pattern through the entire 16 day run really. nothing bad about the 12z ensembles. Yeah real nice looking snow threat as Scooter said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Yeah it ain't pretty. Above normal by Monday lol LOL it's all sorts of fudged up. It's weird though because we have one hell of a block, but the GOA low I think is causing the problems on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Yeah it ain't pretty. Above normal by Monday lol well...hopefully it's just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I love how google has been chilling in our threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 LOL it's all sorts of fudged up. It's weird though because we have one hell of a block, but the GOA low I think is causing the problems on the euro. The GOA low pops a nice +PNA which isn't terrible... but look at what happens to the closed low on the Euro. Goes from Newfoundland to Hudson Bay by 240 hours and there's another s/w that dives into the Plains and starts digging a central US trough. Even the -NAO ridge gets pinched off and starts retrograding PAST Baffin Bay toward the Northwest Passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Where did the tube sock jokes come from for Nzucker? And maybe the Euro is just holding back too much energy in the SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 The GOA low pops a nice +PNA which isn't terrible... but look at what happens to the closed low on the Euro. Goes from Newfoundland to Hudson Bay by 240 hours and there's another s/w that dives into the Plains and starts digging a central US trough. Even the -NAO ridge gets pinched off and starts retrograding PAST Baffin Bay toward the Northwest Passage. Yeah good pick up on that. It also shows you just how complicated the pattern can be, too. It's interesting because I think the ensembles are hinting on the same low pressure (or at least it looks that way) as what's shown on the euro, but the ensembles are slower and colder. Anyways, I do like the pattern coming up. At least we'll have some opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I love how google has been chilling in our threads. Google love SNE long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Where did the tube sock jokes come from for Nzucker? And maybe the Euro is just holding back too much energy in the SW? the Reverend really likes how zucker wear's his Bradlee's tube socks pulled up above his calf to show off the two red stripes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Yeah good pick up on that. It also shows you just how complicated the pattern can be, too. It's interesting because I think the ensembles are hinting on the same low pressure (or at least it looks that way) as what's shown on the euro, but the ensembles are slower and colder. Anyways, I do like the pattern coming up. At least we'll have some opportunities. Yup... and even when setups looks great 7-10 days out they can still screw us. Case in point the op Euro. My money is still on the GEFS but now we have another crappy option on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Sounds like a big step in the right direction then nice Yeah, was a great step in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Yup... and even when setups looks great 7-10 days out they can still screw us. Case in point the op Euro. My money is still on the GEFS but now we have another crappy option on the table. I feel like the op models will be all over the place, so I just don't have trust beyond D7. I don't ignore them, because I think sometimes they can signal something, but I think the op models will struggle. It doesn't mean we can't get a low smacking right into sne or just west, but I'm not gonna go all nzucker if a d9 or d10 prog shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I feel like the op models will be all over the place, so I just don't have trust beyond D7. I don't ignore them, because I think sometimes they can signal something, but I think the op models will struggle. It doesn't mean we can't get a low smacking right into sne or just west, but I'm not gonna go all nzucker if a d9 or d10 prog shows it. completely agree. i don't think we'll see them settle down until early next week when the block actually becomes firmly established in the North Atlantic. the strength and positioning of those 5h anomalies near/over greenland are going to affect the positioning of so many subtle features in an individual op run. it's pretty telling with the large wave amplification/timing shifts we are seeing after day 5 from run-to-run of the deterministic guidance. yet strong signals have remained in place on the various ensemble packages. i suppose the ec could be right and heights could rebound along the EC, but i'd like to see that show up for several days in a row first before thinking much about it. think about what it has displayed in the last 4 or 5 days outside of day 5. it's why we have/rely upon the ensembles...especially during periods of transition like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Boy the gfs ensembles are hinting as something around 12/1- 12/3. Where are you getting the GFS ensembles? I can't access Alan Huffman's site anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Where are you getting the GFS ensembles? I can't access Alan Huffman's site anymore. you can get them lots of different places: PSU E-wall site NCEP Models page Wxcaster page various university sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Where are you getting the GFS ensembles? I can't access Alan Huffman's site anymore. Here you go http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 you can get them lots of different places: PSU E-wall site NCEP Models page Wxcaster page various university sites. Here you go http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I am starting to really like the e-wall site Has euro out to 240hrs... loops some of them easy to toggle back and forth Now if I can learn to understand the darn things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I feel like the op models will be all over the place, so I just don't have trust beyond D7. I don't ignore them, because I think sometimes they can signal something, but I think the op models will struggle. It doesn't mean we can't get a low smacking right into sne or just west, but I'm not gonna go all nzucker if a d9 or d10 prog shows it. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I am starting to really like the e-wall site Has euro out to 240hrs... loops some of them easy to toggle back and forth Now if I can learn to understand the darn things Yeah ewall is pretty much all I use for the basics... It's my favorite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I am starting to really like the e-wall site Has euro out to 240hrs... loops some of them easy to toggle back and forth Now if I can learn to understand the darn things when do you think wa wa will open? early dec? lets lay a nice foot of mashed potatoes down and melt it to 6 inches of rock.....then champagne powder...ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.