Inudaw Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Loose the strung out energy heading back toward the south-west and you got your self a nice storm for the South-east and Southern - Mid-Atlantic. Only issue is how far the baroclinic boundary will get dragged south and east by the departing mid-west/Ohio valley storm mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Man... this place is dead! Headed to 65 here today so I guess I'll get out in the yard and do some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Man... this place is dead! Headed to 65 here today so I guess I'll get out in the yard and do some work. Sounds great, but I wouldn't be so bold as to uncover those prize perennial flower beds this soon. That's what I'll be fighting to keep from doing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Has anyone had their daffodils break the surface yet. I haven't seen the first one here. I dont care how warm the spring it seems most plants will be a little late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Loose the strung out energy heading back toward the south-west and you got your self a nice storm for the South-east and Southern - Mid-Atlantic. Only issue is how far the baroclinic boundary will get dragged south and east by the departing mid-west/Ohio valley storm mid week. Gonna be a wait until this upcoming storm system is out of the way to see what the Euro does with that energy. Hopefully this at least gives us in the south some substantial rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 +NAO plus PNA heading negative = Well...maybe we will get a shot later in Feb or early March.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm starting to wonder how cold it will actually get. Two days ago, the 12z Euro had a record breaking massive outbreak. Yesterday's 12z Euro, though still very cold, wasn't as cold. Today's 12z Euro, though still quite cold, is not as cold as yesterday in the SE. Two days ago, the 12z euro had KATL down all the way to an unbelievable -21c and 850's at or colder than -10c for nearly 48 straight hours. Today's gets down only to -12c and is at -10c or colder for only 18 hours. Will this warmer trend continue? I respect the Euro about as much as anyone here for it's overall performance. However, the runs referenced above are looking to verify as some of the worst ever for our area. Just 3.5 days ago, it had Katl staying below -10c at 850 for nearly 48 hrs. and down to a record tieing -21c around 2/3. Even just a measly 1.5 days ago, it still had atl down to -10c at 850 for 18 hrs and coldest to -12c. The last two runs get 850's no colder than +2c through the entire runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yesterday, around lunch time, the DGEX model showed an impressive snowstorm over the SE only to be lost last night .Well today it is back again over parts of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BraseltonGAWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Has anyone had their daffodils break the surface yet. I haven't seen the first one here. I dont care how warm the spring it seems most plants will be a little late. Yep. My parents in Lilburn told my daughter 2 nights ago on the phone that their's are coming up. Hard to believe in January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yesterday, around lunch time, the DGEX model showed an impressive snowstorm over the SE only to be lost last night .Well today it is back again over parts of the SE. The dgex is an absolutely horrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 +NAO plus PNA heading negative = Well...maybe we will get a shot later in Feb or early March.... Any chance of A Greenland block again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My Mom moved from Ft. Lauderdale to Joplin,MO last year. I think I might need to road trip out to see her! (haha) Looking better & better for her to see her first significant snow. I guess it's only fair that she gets a good one but, I sure like it the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I find it strange that a HP that strong and cold wouldn't push cold air down into our area. Just seems a little odd. Can't argue with the models much at this time range. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 or late in the week,say thursday or friday ? AS OF 310 AM...EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEHANDLING OF THE STORY SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUTDIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LATE THURSDAY ANDFRIDAY.THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THIS PERIOD CAN BECHARACTERIZED BY A SPLIT FLOW WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTINGEAST ON TUE/WED OUT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.AT THE SAME TIME A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WITH A SFC PRESSURE OF 1050 MBWILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANIMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM WEST TOEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPSIN THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TUESDAY. THE ONGOING CAD EVENT ACROSSTHE CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON TUES NIGHT AS THE SFC WAVESLOWLY DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ON A TRACK NEAR BUT JUST WEST OFTHE APPALACHIANS REACHING E KY/OH BY 12Z WED. THE NEW 00Z/29 ECMWFIS NOTABLY FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE CANADIAN SLIGHTLY SLOWERTHAN THEN GFS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROGGED BY THE GFS INCREASESOVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WILL INCLUDE HIGH END CHANCE POPS. EXPECT ARAW NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY ON WED TONEAR THE NYC AREA BY 00Z THU. THIS TRACK SHOULD ALLOW THE WEDGEAIRMASS TO EVENTUALLY ERODE AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...WEDGEWILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO WED ACROSS THE TRIAD REGION.ISENTROPIC LIFT FADES DURING WED MORNING AND THE MAIN FORCING FORASCENT ARRIVES DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTN HOURS FROM THE COLD FRONTMOVING EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WILL CONTINUE POPS AROUND 50PERCENT FOR WED. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WARM DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 50STO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. BUFRSOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE DESPITE AWARM/MOIST SFC LAYER SO WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT.HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE DRAMATICALLY FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THERESIDUAL DAMMING REGION IN THE TRIAD TO AROUND 60 IN THESOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN.PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON WED NIGHT. PERFECTPROGGING THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WILL BE OVER BY LATEAFTN WED. WILL TREND END TIME OF PRECIP UP A LITTLE BIT BUT PREFERNOT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH TIMING ON DAY 5 FCST. REGARDLESS COLDADVECTION ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOWER TOMID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY THURS MORNING.DRIER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THETHURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET PERSISTSACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT JUST SOME PERIODS OFMID/HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERNTHIRD OF FORECAST AREA. -BLAES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 +NAO plus PNA heading negative = Well...maybe we will get a shot later in Feb or early March.... Got to love it during prime climo time We knew this was coming at some point though. All we can do is suck it up and get ready for cold rain in spring when the blocking returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Got to love it during prime climo time We knew this was coming at some point though. All we can do is suck it up and get ready for cold rain in spring when the blocking returns. Well lets hope we can get something to help fire some storms Wed sounds like we will have a decent airmass just nothing to set it off, hopefully the models will come around on the lapse rates either way I bet south winds are kickin in the east come Wed. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WARM DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE DESPITE A WARM/MOIST SFC LAYER SO WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE DRAMATICALLY FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE RESIDUAL DAMMING REGION IN THE TRIAD TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Guess everyone is out enjoying this fine weekend. Will be myself in a few! 12z just got very interesting @ 5 days. Weak lp forming in the Yucatan Chanel. Seems right where we want it at this range . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I will have whatever the 12z GFS is eating, double order please... Beaches get crushed, again. Starting around 120hrs, the front stalls and the conveyer belt of moisture begins. SLP forms around 150hrs and is OTS by 168. Wish it had some support, the Euro is dry in this period, taking the front offshore and cutting a system inland around 204hrs. The GGEM also takes the front offshore, but it at-least has moisture off the coast, something the Euro did not. Looking at the 0z GFS ens members, that are several that show development along the front so it will be interesting to see if we can get a trend in that direction over the next couple days. That is a boat load of QPF along the coast on this run, 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well lets hope we can get something to help fire some storms Wed sounds like we will have a decent airmass just nothing to set it off, hopefully the models will come around on the lapse rates either way I bet south winds are kickin in the east come Wed. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WARM DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE VERY IMPRESSIVE DESPITE A WARM/MOIST SFC LAYER SO WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE DRAMATICALLY FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE RESIDUAL DAMMING REGION IN THE TRIAD TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. Yeah if it is going to be warm I'll take a solid severe threat for sure. I know early on (Nov/Dec) some of these events underperformed but Lakes Cutters can do that much at least. Sometimes they help reset the pattern for eventual winter weather as well. This was the case with both our big storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not trying to be criticaI, just making an observation. I know there is a fine line between a Lakes cutter and a Apps runner but what i'm seeing modeled is definately a Apps Runner and not a lakes cutter. Maybe I look to much into things but there is a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the 12z canadian offers some hope, especially for the carolinas with a potential damming event in about a week. Yeah I know...it's a week away but only thing worth mentioning at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The latest NAM has taken a 150 mile SE jog with this system from its' earlier run. Still too far to our west, but it looks to be feeling the effects of the monster HP to the north. Also, the cold air is farther south in TX this run. Maybe this is the start of a trend. Who knows what to believe??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 well for me all plows will be disconnected Monday for a while. Time to get fertilizer out and on with pine needles and mulch. February always seem spring is in the air. Hopefully we will get some more wintry weather but for now I am ready for a break. Time to start making money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I find it strange that a HP that strong and cold wouldn't push cold air down into our area. Just seems a little odd. Can't argue with the models much at this time range. Oh well. It will cause damming but it's likely not enough for NC. I think VA will likely see some ice mid week. The HP is centered too far west. It generally needs to be east of the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My Mom moved from Ft. Lauderdale to Joplin,MO last year. I think I might need to road trip out to see her! (haha) Looking better & better for her to see her first significant snow. I guess it's only fair that she gets a good one but, I sure like it the other way around. My brother moved to Decatur IL a little over a year ago and he is looking prime also for this event also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My brother moved to Decatur IL a little over a year ago and he is looking prime also for this event also. Ha, I just returned back to Cincy Yesterday and apparently we are getting ready for a major Ice to Snowstorm from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Things getting kinda interesting on tonight's GFS after 120 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Things getting kinda interesting on tonight's GFS after 120 hours... Yep, sure is. The infamous nw trend is in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Things getting kinda interesting on tonight's GFS after 120 hours... It does look interesting, I just wish the euro would pick up on this also. If tonights gfs was right though, we could see some good times next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Took a break from playing QWOP to look the GFS over... this storm is guaranteed to produce snow here. Bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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