Feb 2-4 Storm

[Cold Rain]

It's just the idea that everyone is looking for that "perfect" storm to pop up and give the SE a good snowfall or ice storm. Not necessarily hype, but it's the idea that you are really looking for something. If I get into looking at models so far out, then I'll probably go mad. But I'm not stopping anyone to "peek" into the future. Alright, continue the Feb 2-4 thread.

Chances are, that nothing happens in February, we warm into the 70s in March, and by March 15, we get a nasty snowstorm.

I don't understand posts like this on a weather board. I'm not trying to be contrary. I'm really not. But this is a weather board and the reason that we're on here, the only reason, and not somewhere else is because we love to analyze what the models are telling us about the pattern and about storm threats whether they are 2 days out or 2 weeks out. Very few on here are going to buy in hook, line, and sinker to a model solution 7 days out. Reality is likely to be much different, as you say. But that doesn't mean it's not fun or interesting to explore the potential.

If this was the real world and Robert and Burger (for example) were giving play by play of the Euro and telling everyone they knew it was going to snow in 7 days, then yeah, that might be problematic. But there is nothing wrong with enthusiastically talking about and even debating about what might not occur. That is what makes this place so appealing and ultimately what we're all doing here. It's just a discussion of possibility, not hype.

Sorry if I sound snippy. I really don't want to diminish your point of view. I just am baffeled by the number of posts I see that imply it's worthless to believe a model's 7 day prediction as if you can't discuss it without taking it as gospel, which nobody here is really doing.

[BIG FROSTY]

18z Does appear to be snow here in N.NC, BUT take it with a huge grain of salt ! .63 qpf all snow

WED 06Z 02-FEB -0.2 -1.1 1025 96 98 0.04 562 542

WED 12Z 02-FEB -2.5 -1.0 1024 97 99 0.25 561 543

WED 18Z 02-FEB -3.7 -1.1 1018 96 99 0.27 559 544

THU 00Z 03-FEB -4.5 -1.7 1019 97 62 0.07 554 539

[Cold Rain]

i think you'll see that blue frezzing line trend further south than that, the other storms did as time went on and closer to the event.

I'm with you on your earlier post about the HP sitting in the Plains driving cold air down. As Hickory said, the source region is very cold. And the air will have to travel over a some very cold air.

You give me a sprawling 1040+ high around Minn. pressing S/SE, with a source region that cold and some confluence in the NE (which would argue for a secondary high there) and you can take your Lakes cutter and shove it. I'll take that setup any day of the week and take my chances with southern stream energy, especially this year when it's been so abundant.

[Jon]

18z Does appear to be snow here in N.NC, BUT take it with a huge grain of salt ! .63 qpf all snow

WED 06Z 02-FEB -0.2 -1.1 1025 96 98 0.04 562 542

WED 12Z 02-FEB -2.5 -1.0 1024 97 99 0.25 561 543

WED 18Z 02-FEB -3.7 -1.1 1018 96 99 0.27 559 544

THU 00Z 03-FEB -4.5 -1.7 1019 97 62 0.07 554 539

Looks due to some decent CAD...haven't looked at the models much so I don't know how accurate that statement is, gotta read back in this thread a few pages but interesting enough it looks decent for RDU as well.

[Weather Czar]

18z Does appear to be snow here in N.NC, BUT take it with a huge grain of salt ! .63 qpf all snow

WED 06Z 02-FEB -0.2 -1.1 1025 96 98 0.04 562 542

WED 12Z 02-FEB -2.5 -1.0 1024 97 99 0.25 561 543

WED 18Z 02-FEB -3.7 -1.1 1018 96 99 0.27 559 544

THU 00Z 03-FEB -4.5 -1.7 1019 97 62 0.07 554 539

Chase to frosty land?

[Poimen]

welp, that was encouraging, as encouraging as a 5-6 day GFS 18Z prog can be. At the very least this run assures I will stay up to peak at the 0Z run, although my better judgment tells me to do otherwise.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Haven't many of the storms lasted 2 days this winter.? Dec 25&26th.Jan 9th and 10th and Jan 25th &26th.What i'm getting at is if the storm begins as rain ,which i prefer snow, then on day 2 when the disturbance comes through it could turn the storm to snow. I know i'm grasping at straws but the storms I menthod all have had a disturbances come through on the second day.Just a thouught.

[BIG FROSTY]

Chase to frosty land?

Come on up I'll take you down town Mayberry ! lol

[FoothillsNC]

I agree with HKY this can trend colder, but no guarantees it will. There's much more separation between the flow on GFS , versus ECMWF and that would allow more cold and more HP to penetrate just before the overrunning begins. I don't like how close the southwest SW is though , and wouldn't get my hopes up on this side of the Apps yet, but its something to watch. Also, like Cheeze state the PV is pretty far north atleast initially so the north trend could begin any run now, but again the location of the Surface high and the s/w will determine that. Its a slim chance but its possible that both the northern stream and southern stream move in tandem, in which case would probably be a major winter storm for some areas. So basically every option is out there at this point, and soon we'll probably get a much better idea.

[WeatherNC]

Somehow Dallas/Fort Worth gets half a foot and I get heavy rain.

I know right. DFW is actually one of our benchmarks here in ENC as we often get SN out of the same systems, not the 12z Euro though. Based on the rough Euro panels from inaccuwx, areas along and north of a Dallas - Nashville - DC line would be SN, south of that is mostly if not all RN. This run is actually pretty close to a big storm, like the UKMET is showing, although maybe a little east given the H5 vort placements. Instead of constructive interference like we see with a phase, it barely misses, destructs, and we end up with a strung out mess. Speed that southern parcel up 12-18hrs, or slow the northern stream down and lookout, big time storm going somewhere. Here is the 144 hr panel from Plymouth, the in-between panels to 168 look close but no cigar.

This does not look like the 18z GFS, not even close, and I can only assume without having access to the UKMET H5 maps past 72 hrs that is similar to the Euro, and phases these two parcels. Since this has the potential to be a phasing scenario, expect greater than normal perturbations going forward as the result (track being a function of strength) is likely dependent on the interaction, if any, of the two streams.

The UKMET is obviously an outlier atm in terms of how deep the slp is going to be, however the track is on the western side of what should be considered possible at this range. If I am not mistaken, several days ago the ens means were showing a strong Clipper in the GL region during this window. That feature has all but vanished, and what we are seeing now is a potential weakness between the HP going off the N NE coast around day 5 and the monster HP coming down into the plains. That could allow the storm to cut inland, maybe even through the TN Valley depending on how fast the departing high to our north retreats into the Atlantic. Another question is whether or not we see sig nosing into the GL and NE from the HP coming into the Plains. This is actually shown to some extent in the 12z EC ens mean between 96 and 144 hrs, and to what extent that can hold would have implications on track and cold air.

[NCSNOW]

Not sure what thread I was peeking at lunch today talking about solar influence on NAO. Fixin to go back and read. Anyway Volcanoes play a huge roll in disrupting solar influence and our weather. Good read on Japan eruption., Drudge has link; Check out the pic.

Also a story on NYC snowiest JAN ever.

[NEGa]

i think whether the models will shift n or s probably depends on just how cold the cold air is. if they are underestimating it, chances are it will push the system (if any) south. if the cold air is looking weaker and weaker chances are it shifts the wrong way (well for most of us, at least lol)

thats a strong high, but if its too strong on the models this far out, then things will probably not shift in our favor

Not sure what thread I was peeking at lunch today talking about solar influence on NAO. Fixin to go back and read. Anyway Volcanoes play a huge roll in disrupting solar influence and our weather. Good read on Japan eruption., Drudge has link; Check out the pic.

Also a story on NYC snowiest JAN ever.

saw that as well - an awesome pic! also pretty wild that there is another volcano going off. maybe the ones the last year or so put enough sulfur or gasses, dust etc to mess up the usual nina pattern

[Carvers Gap]

DT is seems to echo many thoughts from today.

http://www.wxrisk.com/

[gritsnc]

Lanie Pope on WXII is leaning towards rain only on Tuesday/Wednesday. We shall see if she's right or not!

[Cheeznado]

i think whether the models will shift n or s probably depends on just how cold the cold air is. if they are underestimating it, chances are it will push the system (if any) south. if the cold air is looking weaker and weaker chances are it shifts the wrong way (well for most of us, at least lol)

thats a strong high, but if its too strong on the models this far out, then things will probably not shift in our favor

saw that as well - an awesome pic! also pretty wild that there is another volcano going off. maybe the ones the last year or so put enough sulfur or gasses, dust etc to mess up the usual nina pattern

I disagree. The key is all in the mid-upper levels. If the phase occurs as far west as the UKMET amd CMC say, the cold air dumps down well west of us regardless of how cold it is. For wintry precip in the SE we need the CA low/short wave to be bypassed by the first northern stream impulse- which then draws down the cold air for the southern stream short wave to work on as it come east later on. I think there is a misconception with some here that cold surface air is all powerful and can by itself direct the track of systems. If the upper levels are strong enough to force a low to go to our west, then it will, regardless of the strength of the cold air.

[Cold Rain]

I disagree. The key is all in the mid-upper levels. If the phase occurs as far west as the UKMET amd CMC say, the cold air dumps down well west of us regardless of how cold it is. For wintry precip in the SE we need the CA low/short wave to be bypassed by the first northern stream impulse- which then draws down the cold air for the southern stream short wave to work on as it come east later on. I think there is a misconception with some here that cold surface air is all powerful and can by itself direct the track of systems. If the upper levels are strong enough to force a low to go to our west, then it will, regardless of the strength of the cold air.

If there is a surface high over let's say the Great Lakes, would that mean the upper air features are such that a Lakes cutter would be unlikely? I know the big H at the surface doesn't dictate the track of a storm in and of itself, but the big H is in a particular spot for a reason. I guess what I'm asking is that is the reason it's there enough to keep storms from tracking into it? Does my question make sense?

I don't care about surface features 7 days out, but my understanding is you won't get a strong Arctic surface high underneath upper level difluence. Upper level confluence would potentially be found over a surface high, and if you have upper level confluence, a storm would be unlikely to track into that. Am I thinking about this correctly?

[FoothillsNC]

I disagree. The key is all in the mid-upper levels. If the phase occurs as far west as the UKMET amd CMC say, the cold air dumps down well west of us regardless of how cold it is. For wintry precip in the SE we need the CA low/short wave to be bypassed by the first northern stream impulse- which then draws down the cold air for the southern stream short wave to work on as it come east later on. I think there is a misconception with some here that cold surface air is all powerful and can by itself direct the track of systems. If the upper levels are strong enough to force a low to go to our west, then it will, regardless of the strength of the cold air.

If there is a surface high over let's say the Great Lakes, would that mean the upper air features are such that a Lakes cutter would be unlikely? I know the big H at the surface doesn't dictate the track of a storm in and of itself, but the big H is in a particular spot for a reason. I guess what I'm asking is that is the reason it's there enough to keep storms from tracking into it? Does my question make sense?

I don't care about surface features 7 days out, but my understanding is you won't get a strong Arctic surface high underneath upper level difluence. Upper level confluence would potentially be found over a surface high, and if you have upper level confluence, a storm would be unlikely to track into that. Am I thinking about this correctly?

you're both right and this is the chicken/egg theory. If there's strong high pressure, obviously the low will track around it, in this case, the high is supposedly in the Plains, which forces the low to the south of it, but at some point the low cuts north. Both the low and high are there as a result of the upper structure of troughs and ridges and longwaves. Thats why I always focus on longwaves and the 5H look, and determine for myself where the surface features should be. The GFS and Euro look in the ballpark on the 1040 to 1045 high in the uppper Plains. If the 5H confluence were much stronger , then the surface high could strengthen even more.

And if you've noticed about 2 or 3 times this season, a High Pressure has suddenly popped up on actual surface obs during a storm, when one wasn't really forecast just 5 days out. Under confluence in the Northeast or Lakes region on both accounts. Proof that in synoptic meteorology, it has to happen, regardless of progs 5 days out. I love to see that happen and is one of the reasons in-situ cold damming often busts surface temps in the Carolinas. I've been accounting for that for many years now, in my forecasts days out.

[Cold Rain]

you're both right and this is the chicken/egg theory. If there's strong high pressure, obviously the low will track around it, in this case, the high is supposedly in the Plains, which forces the low to the south of it, but at some point the low cuts north. Both the low and high are there as a result of the upper structure of troughs and ridges and longwaves. Thats why I always focus on longwaves and the 5H look, and determine for myself where the surface features should be. The GFS and Euro look in the ballpark on the 1040 to 1045 high in the uppper Plains. If the 5H confluence were much stronger , then the surface high could strengthen even more.

And if you've noticed about 2 or 3 times this season, a High Pressure has suddenly popped up on actual surface obs during a storm, when one wasn't really forecast just 5 days out. Under confluence in the Northeast or Lakes region on both accounts. Proof that in synoptic meteorology, it has to happen, regardless of progs 5 days out. I love to see that happen and is one of the reasons in-situ cold damming often busts surface temps in the Carolinas. I've been accounting for that for many years now, in my forecasts days out.

Thanks Rober. I actually think that with the tendency of modeling to underestimate the strength (and as you mentioned, sometimes even the development) of highs, as well as the magnitude of more shallow cold air and damming, AND with the tendency of southern stream waves to be delayed somewhat this year, I am pretty optimistic for this threat. It's still going to come down to timing, as it often does around here. If there's phasing, then all bets are off. We'll just have to wait and see. I hope we catch this one, because if we don't, the pattern looks to warm up. BUT, that's not guaranteed either. Seems like that's been delayed so far this season too. First, it was late Dec./early Jan. Then it was mid Jan. Then it was late Jan./early Feb. Now it's getting toward mid Feb. I don't dispute that the NAO looks to go positive for a while, but I'm not convinced that any warm up won't be short lived. But that's for another discussion, I guess. I'm just rambling tonight.

[FoothillsNC]

Thanks Rober. I actually think that with the tendency of modeling to underestimate the strength (and as you mentioned, sometimes even the development) of highs, as well as the magnitude of more shallow cold air and damming, AND with the tendency of southern stream waves to be delayed somewhat this year, I am pretty optimistic for this threat. It's still going to come down to timing, as it often does around here. If there's phasing, then all bets are off. We'll just have to wait and see. I hope we catch this one, because if we don't, the pattern looks to warm up. BUT, that's not guaranteed either. Seems like that's been delayed so far this season too. First, it was late Dec./early Jan. Then it was mid Jan. Then it was late Jan./early Feb. Now it's getting toward mid Feb. I don't dispute that the NAO looks to go positive for a while, but I'm not convinced that any warm up won't be short lived. But that's for another discussion, I guess. I'm just rambling tonight.

I won't touch the longer range, as its had problems doing what we thought should happen. So we may warm up, and maybe just the opposite, if we keep a PNA . On this particular case of the Cold outbreak though, I think its much different than the ones earlier this season for areas WEST of the Apps. I'm seeing the positive longwave tilt, which is a sign of a strong surface high. This type of high is usually associated with low level cold bleed, so for even down into the deep south , west of the Carolinas, for central Texas for example, the surface air will probably be much, much colder than you'd think based on 850's. Thats why following 850's and thicknesses for p-type this far out are likely to be wrong. When you get to 1045mb strength of C.Ak. air, and no obstructions, then it reeks of low level shallow cold air, which is an icy setup at the very least, west of the Apps. I don't know what happens east of the Apps yet for next week, depends on the surface highs position and the strength and track of the overrunning. Right now, it looks to come so far north the Carolinas for the most part would be rain, with an icy to snowy mess west of the mtns, but if the northern s/w comes in faster that would bring the High closer first, and change things up. I wouldn't count on that here though, as usually cold air is like molasses and slow to move east of the mountains. We'll see how this trends though.

[Cold Rain]

I won't touch the longer range, as its had problems doing what we thought should happen. So we may warm up, and maybe just the opposite, if we keep a PNA . On this particular case of the Cold outbreak though, I think its much different than the ones earlier this season for areas WEST of the Apps. I'm seeing the positive longwave tilt, which is a sign of a strong surface high. This type of high is usually associated with low level cold bleed, so for even down into the deep south , west of the Carolinas, for central Texas for example, the surface air will probably be much, much colder than you'd think based on 850's. Thats why following 850's and thicknesses for p-type this far out are likely to be wrong. When you get to 1045mb strength of C.Ak. air, and no obstructions, then it reeks of low level shallow cold air, which is an icy setup at the very least, west of the Apps. I don't know what happens east of the Apps yet for next week, depends on the surface highs position and the strength and track of the overrunning. Right now, it looks to come so far north the Carolinas for the most part would be rain, with an icy to snowy mess west of the mtns, but if the northern s/w comes in faster that would bring the High closer first, and change things up. I wouldn't count on that here though, as usually cold air is like molasses and slow to move east of the mountains. We'll see how this trends though.

That makes a lot of sense.... I'm not sold on the long range guidance either in terms of a warm up. We had the NAO- and now the PNA+. Will the PNA+ abate? Will the NAO- return? Who knows. The cold has been persistent, and so I have to give some weight to persistence when thinking about the longer range. Anyway, we'll see how next week plays out. Hopefully, the high will come in as strong or even stronger than advertised and we can get that cold to bleed east of the Apps. I like the placement of it...we just need it to build in in time. Thanks very much for the thoughts and comments about the situation. Sorry about leaving the T off of your name before. Wife is watching Sex and the City and Charlotte was on the screen. I kinda got distracted.

[POWERSTROKE]

Lanie Pope on Fox 8 is leaning towards rain only on Tuesday/Wednesday. We shall see if she's right or not!

she is on WXII 12

[Tacoma]

don't why she is saying rain, i would say rain ice or snow and cover myself cause it could be one or all three from where I'm sitting.

she is on WXII 12

[Cold Rain]

don't why she is saying rain, i would say rain ice or snow and cover myself cause it could be one or all three from where I'm sitting.

If it's in the Tues/Wed time frame, I'd just go mostly cloudy at this point. The way some of these systems have been, very little precipitation is just as likely as snow, ice, or rain.

[BIG FROSTY]

don't why she is saying rain, i would say rain ice or snow and cover myself cause it could be one or all three from where I'm sitting.

Most likely she will be right, Hope not, But Forecast rain 5 days out and 9 times out of 10 in the SE and you will be correct.

[FoothillsNC]

If the NAM is any indication, the Canada s/w is very far west at 84 hours. Which wouldn't be too cold in the Tenn Valley later on with that look.

[wxsmwhrms]

If the NAM is any indication, the Canada s/w is very far west at 84 hours. Which wouldn't be too cold in the Tenn Valley later on with that look.

Way farther W than any 12Z model at that time - which combined with the fact that it's the NAM, means it's probably wrong.

[Tacoma]

foothills can't wait to hear what you have to say about the upcoming storm, still think this is going to be a decent winter storm for the NC Mtns. but will wait and let you experts tell us your opinions in the coming days. I've enjoyed reading your expertize lately.

If the NAM is any indication, the Canada s/w is very far west at 84 hours. Which wouldn't be too cold in the Tenn Valley later on with that look.

[tarheelwx]

Lanie Pope on Fox 8 is leaning towards rain only on Tuesday/Wednesday. We shall see if she's right or not!

I thought Lanie Pope was on 12 WXII.

In the triad, you should ONLY watch Van Denton or Austin Caviness. Otherwise is a waste of your time vs. the many other options (web based) you have.

TW

[rxwxunc]

I see this shaping up to be a Miller 'B' set up. The sleeze factor will be high for this event, provided the moisture arrives at the same time the secondary H from New England noses down for a classical CAD event.

[Marion_NC_WX]

0z GFS off and running...at 96 hours a pronounced CAD signature developing with high pressure extending all the way back to the Northern Plains. Light patches of precip all across the southern tier at that time frame but no low development yet at 96...I like the looks of this.