Cheeznado Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Cheez, You think it's unlikely the system gets delayed? I'm not sure I'd put much stock in any model solution at this point, given the fact that they were routinely hundreds of miles apart with each other (and sometimes with their own previous runs) with the last storm. The Euro ensembles have been pretty steady with either a Lakes cutter or an Apps runner, the Ukie has been steady with a Lakes cutter, the CMC, which previously was suppressed now has a Lakes cutter. This far out technically anything is possible but given the state of the NAO and given what happened with the last storm, I an firmly in my Debbie Downer mode for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Its the way the trough and setup is aligned. Its happened before. Right now I'm favoring west of the Apps for a good hit from a Winter storm. Low level cold should have no problem west of us bleeding down, but east of the Apps different story, unless the northern trough gets here much earlier, or the SW system arrives later. I don't see much chance with a Lakes Cutter on this. CAD, west of the apps style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 After the way this winter has been I wouldn't trust the models much until it gets a LOT closer maybe 12 to 24 hours out. I'm thinking 12 to 24 minutes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The Euro ensembles have been pretty steady with either a Lakes cutter or an Apps runner, the Ukie has been steady with a Lakes cutter, the CMC, which previously was suppressed now has a Lakes cutter. This far out technically anything is possible but given the state of the NAO and given what happened with the last storm, I an firmly in my Debbie Downer mode for this one. Unfortunately, even for here (KRTI) I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I do not think it's out of the realm of possibility for the southern system to be delayed. As usual, we're 7 days away from this arriving in the SE. The timing of these features WILL change. I don't think a Lakes cutter is more likely than a non-Lakes cutter, although an inland track/Miller B is solidly on the table. Shift the whole pattern just a bit east and we're in really good shape. Not an impossible task from 7 days out. Yeah if I remember correctly pretty much every southern system this winter has trended slower, Some significantly. We saw how this greatly affected our last storm's outcome. There is a slim chance this storm system is gonna be nailed, as far as timing, this far out. I say the odds that it comes in slower outweigh the odds that it comes in faster. We have plenty of time to watch this develop, so no one should come in here saying all rain for GA/SC/NC just yet imo. I can see where Cheez's Debbie Downer mood is coming from though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Will wait for the Euro ensembles but my thinking is that they will be more in a Lakes cutter mode than the op. If so, except perhaps western TN- this is going to be just rain, sorry, Cold behind it, yes. But very little to no chance of snow for almost all on this board. yep - lakes cutter is the certain kiss of death for almost all of us This storm manages to hit everyone except nc/sc/ga. of course it does. sigh. watch this one verify from this far out with no shifts at all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 We just can't get any snow around here anymore in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 We just can't get any snow around here anymore in February. It just snowed last February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 We just can't get any snow around here anymore in February. Well if history holds correct, this storm wont pan out since the first week of February has historically not been good, hence the other thread started, not that we dont get snow in February. http://www.americanw...-snows-in-gasc/ But hey, maybe this will be a reversal, the last storm blew up in to a huge snowstorm and was a big icestorm this far out, then was an epic fail, so maybe we can get the opposite luck this time. But Im not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think that this storm needs to be watched closely to notice trends in the models. If this storm slows by 12-24 hours, this could be a different set-up for those living on the east side of the Apps. As we have scene this year, the models are not doing a good job handling storms this far out. If this storm trends slower middle/late next week, it could be a major deal for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It just snowed last February. 761 posts for Brick, pretty much like that one.....jeeeezzzzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 We just can't get any snow around here anymore in February. Yep you're right ZERO snow for you last February and no snow for you this February either. In fact there will be no snow in the whole United States this February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The Euro ensembles have been pretty steady with either a Lakes cutter or an Apps runner, the Ukie has been steady with a Lakes cutter, the CMC, which previously was suppressed now has a Lakes cutter. This far out technically anything is possible but given the state of the NAO and given what happened with the last storm, I an firmly in my Debbie Downer mode for this one. I hear you, and I don't blame you for being in DD mode. I'm not going to throw in the towel yet though. When the modeling shows a SE winter storm at 144 (ensembles included) time after time, only to have it not pan out, I refuse to trust that their depiction of a Lakes cutter is going to yield more accuracy at the same time frame. I'm still somewhat optimistic as it wouldn't take much of a shift in timing to change things substantially for the better...and that is well within the possibility envelope at this point. We're not talking about a total pattern shift...just modulating a few key details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 761 posts for Brick, pretty much like that one.....jeeeezzzzz. I told him yesterday to just copy his previous post so he wouldn't have to waste time typing the same thing over and over again. If you're going to whine, at least do so efficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I'm glad to see the old Cheez is back. I was starting to wonder if you had turned into a real weenie. I now realize it was just a good stretch of winter weather. I don't know what happened in Brick's neighborhood last February but I got as much snow as the previous 5 years combined that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The 12z Euro looked almost like the 0z Ensemble mean of the Euro last night. (Not sure about the 12z Euro ensembles..) The further east you go on the warmer the storm is unfortunately for those that want wintry precip. The UKMET, and GGEM cut the storm because both models phase a northern stream short wave into the southern stream wave.. and the result cuts it into the lakes. The GFS and the Euro do not do this. JMA is more inline with GFS and Euro but the arctic front is slower to arrive so the overall result is further north than the Euro. So as far as "type" of scenarios go. Euro then GFS then JMA as far as a general wsw to ene moving low with orientation with the northern extent depending on how fast the arctic front moves in. Euro as coldest of these solutions... JMA the warmest. UKMET/GGEM with a phased cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 There are a lot of things (in the pattern) that currently go against us getting a winter event. But there is one good thing; we have snow cover to the north in the mid-atlantic and NE. If a CAD sets up this would help enhance the cold air feed more than the models would currently show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 There are a lot of things (in the pattern) that currently go against us getting a winter event. But there is one good thing; we have snow cover to the north in the mid-atlantic and NE. If a CAD sets up this would help enhance the cold air feed more than the models would currently show. I'm sure lookout is about to comment on this but...have heard this a million times and it never actually verifies for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I have to leave soon, but at 132 this is similar to its other run, maybe further south. Its going to come down to timing of the arctic front and where it drapes. I'm favoring APPs west with the low level and upper cold, and overrunning begins around Tuesday. Snow and ice for much of Texas interior, Ark, Tenn, n. Miss. Certainly no Lakes cutter, as I sort of suspectd with such strong artic high in the Plains. Could be a heck of a ice and snow event west of the Apps, even deep into Ala, Ga, La, Tex, Ark. I agree, this also definitely has potential CAD wise. That high over the plains can easily cause some wedging down the apps before this system comes in wed/thurs. Should be interesting to watch the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The 12z Euro looked almost like the 0z Ensemble mean of the Euro last night. (Not sure about the 12z Euro ensembles..) The further east you go on the warmer the storm is unfortunately for those that want wintry precip. The UKMET, and GGEM cut the storm because both models phase a northern stream short wave into the southern stream wave.. and the result cuts it into the lakes. The GFS and the Euro do not do this. JMA is more inline with GFS and Euro but the arctic front is slower to arrive so the overall result is further north than the Euro. So as far as "type" of scenarios go. Euro then GFS then JMA as far as a general wsw to ene moving low with orientation with the northern extent depending on how fast the arctic front moves in. Euro as coldest of these solutions... JMA the warmest. UKMET/GGEM with a phased cutter. Yep 12z was the dreaded cold chasing the rain away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The 12z Euro looked almost like the 0z Ensemble mean of the Euro last night. (Not sure about the 12z Euro ensembles..) The further east you go on the warmer the storm is unfortunately for those that want wintry precip. The UKMET, and GGEM cut the storm because both models phase a northern stream short wave into the southern stream wave.. and the result cuts it into the lakes. The GFS and the Euro do not do this. JMA is more inline with GFS and Euro but the arctic front is slower to arrive so the overall result is further north than the Euro. So as far as "type" of scenarios go. Euro then GFS then JMA as far as a general wsw to ene moving low with orientation with the northern extent depending on how fast the arctic front moves in. Euro as coldest of these solutions... JMA the warmest. UKMET/GGEM with a phased cutter. A pretty fair number of the 12Z Euro ensemble\ members have the look of the GGEM/UKMET- at 144 the mean surface pattern has a low over eastern TN moving NE- moving up just west or over the Apps. Not good for snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z Euro Op is not far from the 01/22/87 storm that I referenced in this tread yesterday. Problem is, we need this thing in friggin Key Largo on the models right now in order for it to end up in N FL. Euro yields 0.55 QPF of snow for Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 A pretty fair number of the 12Z Euro ensemble\ members have the look of the GGEM/UKMET- at 144 the mean surface pattern has a low over eastern TN moving NE- moving up just west or over the Apps. Not good for snow at all. Do many of them phase? Or is this a low that forms and rides the arctic boundry? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z Euro Op is not far from the 01/22/87 storm that I referenced in this tread yesterday. Problem is, we need this thing in friggin Key Largo on the models right now in order for it to end up in N FL. Euro yields 0.55 QPF of snow for Nashville. As others have mentioned, we need the northern wave going through the Great Lakes to move on into the NE and drag cold air in behind it, and ahead of our wave in Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 As others have mentioned, we need the northern wave going through the Great Lakes to move on into the NE and drag cold air in behind it, and ahead of our wave in Texas Yep...but not too much so as to squash our storm. Always a fine line for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I hope it slows 12 to 24 hours so that the Arctic High can get in a favorable position. These systems where the cold is chasing the moisture doesn't pan out to well around here. Maybe if the high latitude warming creates blocking in the right place, it can extend winter longer with many more chances to come. Carolina Crusher used to be the name of a monster truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Do many of them phase? Or is this a low that forms and rides the arctic boundry? Thanks. Hard to tell with the maps I look at- this will be a close call but really only between a total phase like the GGEM and UKMET have, or a partial phase as shown on the ensemble mean- the latter holds out hope for central/western TN and maybe northern MS. I still see little to no chance for GA/AL/SC and probably NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yep...but not too much so as to squash our storm. Always a fine line for us. I'll take my chances with the squash scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I'll take my chances with the squash scenario. Me too! Let that Arctic front settle through here real nice and easy like and let's see hat happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 We just can't get any snow around here anymore in February. The chicken little of American Wx The Optimist!!!! Bricckkkkkk Tammmlannnddddddddddd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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