GaWx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Robert, I'm starting to wonder how cold it will actually get. Two days ago, the 12z Euro had a record breaking massive outbreak. Yesterday's 12z Euro, though still very cold, wasn't as cold. Today's 12z Euro, though still quite cold, is not as cold as yesterday in the SE. Two days ago, the 12z euro had KATL down all the way to an unbelievable -21c and 850's at or colder than -10c for nearly 48 straight hours. Today's gets down only to -12c and is at -10c or colder for only 18 hours. Will this warmer trend continue? its a strong arctic outbreak following the storm. TN, Ky and ARk are at -16, and the Southeast is very cold. So hopefully somehow areas west of the Apps get more snow , not ice, but I'm leaning a lot of ice for someone west of the Apps with this setup, which would be very bad news with such a cold airmass coming in afterwards. The overall setup is pretty wintry. Plenty of time to follow this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It just snowed last February. And twice at that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hard to tell with the maps I look at- this will be a close call but really only between a total phase like the GGEM and UKMET have, or a partial phase as shown on the ensemble mean- the latter holds out hope for central/western TN and maybe northern MS. I still see little to no chance for GA/AL/SC and probably NC haha. I still hold out some optimism. Lets see what the 18z GFS has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yes- the 00Z run was much more suppressed than this run. The handwriting is on the wall for this one. I will take the rain but snow- forget it. I can't believe you are already giving this no chance, have you not been watching models this winter?? The whole set up will change by then along with arrival time. Stop writing it off so quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hard to tell with the maps I look at- this will be a close call but really only between a total phase like the GGEM and UKMET have, or a partial phase as shown on the ensemble mean- the latter holds out hope for central/western TN and maybe northern MS. I still see little to no chance for GA/AL/SC and probably NC Yeah, I pretty much agree with this. The pattern really to me seems to favor a mid-South event - if a solution like the op ECMWF were to pan out, would be a pretty good winter event for AR, N LA, N MS, and west/mid TN. I don't know enough about the CAD areas to comment, but the pattern certainly does not seem to favor AL/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Robert, I'm starting to wonder how cold it will actually get. Two days ago, the 12z Euro had a record breaking massive outbreak. Yesterday's 12z Euro, though still very cold, wasn't as cold. Today's 12z Euro, though still quite cold, is not as cold as yesterday in the SE. Two days ago, the 12z euro had KATL down all the way to an unbelievable -21c and 850's at or colder than -10c for nearly 48 straight hours. Today's gets down only to -12c and is at -10c or colder for only 18 hours. Will this warmer trend continue? Seen the models do this the last several years. They always seem to blow the cold air out of proportion 7+ days out. If it shows really cold just expect kinda cold, same goes for warm ups. Doesn't make since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Wasn't ther an ice storm in Atlanta area a few years ago during the Super Bowl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Robert, I'm starting to wonder how cold it will actually get. Two days ago, the 12z Euro had a record breaking massive outbreak. Yesterday's 12z Euro, though still very cold, wasn't as cold. Today's 12z Euro, though still quite cold, is not as cold as yesterday in the SE. Two days ago, the 12z euro had KATL down all the way to an unbelievable -21c and 850's at or colder than -10c for nearly 48 straight hours. Today's gets down only to -12c and is at -10c or colder for only 18 hours. Will this warmer trend continue? \ It probably is overdone with the -16, but in this instance, maybe not so much, but probably closer to -12 in the Midsouth. Already at 96 hours all of Canada is completely covered in true Cak. air and with the pna , its a matter of just how far south it gets following our storm. And the storm itself is going to determine how much gets dragged in behind. I'm bullish on a pretty cold airmass later next week, but not to the tune of -16 at 850 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 What does cAk mean? Arctic air? Larry Cosgrove uses that abbreviation a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 What does cAk mean? Arctic air? Larry Cosgrove uses that abbreviation a lot. I believe it refers to continental arctic air.Arctic air that is colder than the surface over which it lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I believe it refers to continental arctic air.Arctic air that is colder than the surface over which it lies. Awesome, thanks. I thought it meant something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Do any of you rely on the good old Farmers Almanac? I was looking at the new one and it called yesterdays storm and also the Christmas one if I remember correctly. Going by it, I'm not expecting many more chances of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think it's great that everyone is passionate and curious to see what will happen next week, but to be honest, it's next week. Models that far out cannot be trusted at all. Voodoo land as James Spann says. The weather will do what it wants. Kinda ridiculous making guesses at this point. No reason to hype anything. Euro is likely our best bet for long term situations for now. GFS, not so much. I'll start paying attention by Sunday. Until then, I'm going to be enjoying my 60 degree weather here in Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I think it's great that everyone is passionate and curious to see what will happen next week, but to be honest, it's next week. Models that far out cannot be trusted at all. Voodoo land as James Spann says. The weather will do what it wants. Kinda ridiculous making guesses at this point. No reason to hype anything. Euro is likely our best bet for long term situations for now. GFS, not so much. I'll start paying attention by Sunday. Until then, I'm going to be enjoying my 60 degree weather here in Georgia. Who is hyping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Who is hyping? It's just the idea that everyone is looking for that "perfect" storm to pop up and give the SE a good snowfall or ice storm. Not necessarily hype, but it's the idea that you are really looking for something. If I get into looking at models so far out, then I'll probably go mad. But I'm not stopping anyone to "peek" into the future. Alright, continue the Feb 2-4 thread. Chances are, that nothing happens in February, we warm into the 70s in March, and by March 15, we get a nasty snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 NWS Blacksburg not to bullish even on cold next week atleast thru Thursday MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. .WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. Weather Channel says Wednesday wintry mix high of 33 What's 10 degrees among friends Funny thing is most of the time it's the weather channel is the warmest forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It's just the idea that everyone is looking for that "perfect" storm to pop up and give the SE a good snowfall or ice storm. Not necessarily hype, but it's the idea that you are really looking for something. If I get into looking at models so far out, then I'll probably go mad. But I'm not stopping anyone to "peek" into the future. Alright, continue the Feb 2-4 thread. Chances are, that nothing happens in February, we warm into the 70s in March, and by March 15, we get a nasty snowstorm. LOL! That's how NC weather usually works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 doesn't anyone else see a 1038 H coming into the plains next Monday that would feed cold air into this storm coming across the gulf coast especially the northern southeastern states? if we can get the storm to slow down like this last one about 12 hours its a hit for NC, GA and SC and VA. look what happened to this last storm Monday night into tuesday turned into Tuesday afternoon evening into wednesday. thats the time frame we need for this next storm to give the 1038 H time to get into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 NWS is only going by what models say right now, a lot will change between now next wednesday, look at this last storm. i went from 6-12 inches of snow to a few snow flurries, that storm trended almost to Canada. NWS Blacksburg not to bullish even on cold next week atleast thru Thursday MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. .WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 this is what I'm talking about one weather service says low 40's and the other says 33 and a mix bag. i realize no one knows right now but the potential is there if the Cold H Pressure will get into place thats coming in at around Monday time frame. NWS Blacksburg not to bullish even on cold next week atleast thru Thursday MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. .WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. Weather Channel says Wednesday wintry mix high of 33 What's 10 degrees among friends Funny thing is most of the time it's the weather channel is the warmest forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I don't think this will be a lakes cutter, to much high blocking this storm will hug the gulf coast. come on cold high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 18z GFS says ice ice baby for most of NC. By the way it looks more inland so the 18z could be picking up on the trend Cheez was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 One thing i would keep an eye on with this pattern. Not saying it's likely, unlikely, whatever, just possible. The below frame is from the 18z gfs at hour 24. You can see the parent HP over northern Canada that is going to come into the CONUS early next week. Noitce the cold air source with this, -30 to -40C 850mb temps. Also you can check out the PNA axis below on the 18z gfs, which would pretty much guarantee a south-southeastly trajectory with the HP as it enters the CONUS. That would put it entering somewhere over the Dakotas/Minnesota. If that's the case, I would favor a much colder surface solution than what the models are currently showing. Especially over VA/NC. IMO this would definitely favor an ice setup if I'm right. The euro just yesterday was showing sfc to 925mb temps being -1 to -2 over much of northern NC/southern va mid-week next week with a day or two of freezing rain. The NAO is not negative, but IMO it doesn't have to be for an ice setup in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 @ 132 GFS seems to have trended a bit further north. A tad colder at 850 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Haven't most of the other storms this winter start as miller b or App runner only to go to coastal solution in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 One thing i would keep an eye on with this pattern. Not saying it's likely, unlikely, whatever, just possible. The below frame is from the 18z gfs at hour 24. You can see the parent HP over northern Canada that is going to come into the CONUS early next week. Noitce the cold air source with this, -30 to -40C 850mb temps. Also you can check out the PNA axis below on the 18z gfs, which would pretty much guarantee a south-southeastly trajectory with the HP as it enters the CONUS. That would put it entering somewhere over the Dakotas/Minnesota. If that's the case, I would favor a much colder surface solution than what the models are currently showing. Especially over VA/NC. IMO this would definitely favor an ice setup if I'm right. The euro just yesterday was showing sfc to 925mb temps being -1 to -2 over much of northern NC/southern va mid-week next week with a day or two of freezing rain. The NAO is not negative, but IMO it doesn't have to be for an ice setup in this area. Looks like it's catching on with the temps on the 18z , major ice storm for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 18z GFS says ice ice baby for most of NC. By the way it looks more inland so the 18z could be picking up on the trend Cheez was talking about. Yeah that looks like a nasty ice storm for NC on the GFS. Maybe into upstate SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 138 looks close for some snow N.NC and def ICY for NC, 1026 high in PA will do it with such cold air with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 thats what i'm talking about snowman, the other snow storms we have had started out like this then trended in a good direction for the southeast except this last storm which had a mind of its own. Haven't most of the other storms this winter start as miller b or App runner only to go to coastal solution in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 i think you'll see that blue frezzing line trend further south than that, the other storms did as time went on and closer to the event. 138 looks close for some snow N.NC and def ICY for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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