burgertime Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well not set in stone... I think this storm will be for the western regional boards. Too much mounting evidence against this region or the Mid-Atlantic region. Next potential will be determined based on how much energy gets left behind.. and what happens with it as it ... eventually spits out. Yep unless we can pull out a miracle it's not looking good. Might be dicey for central VA and northern NC though with the CAD setup. I'm sure there aren't too many people pulling for even moderate ZR though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yep unless we can pull out a miracle it's not looking good. Might be dicey for central VA and northern NC though with the CAD setup. I'm sure there aren't too many people pulling for even moderate ZR though. I dont see this storm as being a threat for the region any longer, looks to be becoming a glc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I don't know...I think that goofy-looking morning met at News 14 does OK sometimes.... I thought Lanie Pope was on 12 WXII. In the triad, you should ONLY watch Van Denton or Austin Caviness. Otherwise is a waste of your time vs. the many other options (web based) you have. TW That is some mega-CAD showing up on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I don't know...I think that goofy-looking morning met at News 14 does OK sometimes.... That is some mega-CAD showing up on the Euro. Matthew, I watch you every morning I looked at the data and 2m temps and 850s look a lot warmer than 12z Euro had ? I don't think I even get down to freezing here in Surry County. EDIT: It shows about .07 qpf with temp around or slightly below freezing. BTW- Why don't or Who needs to contact Mount Airy Temp sensor reporting they need to get it out from in front of the heater.lol It's always way to warm, something wrong ? I'm 26 this morning and they are reporting 32 ? It's always 6 or so degrees off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I appreciate you watching! Yeah, that sensor drives me nuts...I have no idea why it always reads warm. Verbatim, on the graphical products, once the wedge arrives, your area doesn't get above the mid 30s until sometime Wednesday. But yeah, I was just commenting on the slp charts....quite an impressive wedge signature. Matthew, I watch you every morning I looked at the data and 2m temps and 850s look a lot warmer than 12z Euro had ? I don't think I even get down to freezing here in Surry County. EDIT: It shows about .07 qpf with temp around or slightly below freezing. BTW- Why don't or Who needs to contact Mount Airy Temp sensor reporting they need to get it out from in front of the heater.lol It's always way to warm, something wrong ? I'm 26 this morning and they are reporting 32 ? It's always 6 or so degrees off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knee deep to a grasshopper Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Matthew, I watch you every morning I looked at the data and 2m temps and 850s look a lot warmer than 12z Euro had ? I don't think I even get down to freezing here in Surry County. EDIT: It shows about .07 qpf with temp around or slightly below freezing. BTW- Why don't or Who needs to contact Mount Airy Temp sensor reporting they need to get it out from in front of the heater.lol It's always way to warm, something wrong ? I'm 26 this morning and they are reporting 32 ? It's always 6 or so degrees off. Amen to that. I always say that they have left the gates of hell open in Mt. AIry. That is why it is always warmer than everywhere around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 she is on WXII 12 Oops! My mistake! I must have had Fox 8 on my mind at the time. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Amen to that. I always say that they have left the gates of hell open in Mt. AIry. That is why it is always warmer than everywhere around. Looks like somebody from NWS (I guess) would look in to getting it fixed. It's been like that for a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The models have trended like I expected. Hard to beat the Euro ensembles when they are consistent. Lake Cutter here we come. Lol.. I still want my snowstorm the euro ensembles gave earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Matthew, I watch you every morning I looked at the data and 2m temps and 850s look a lot warmer than 12z Euro had ? I don't think I even get down to freezing here in Surry County. EDIT: It shows about .07 qpf with temp around or slightly below freezing. BTW- Why don't or Who needs to contact Mount Airy Temp sensor reporting they need to get it out from in front of the heater.lol It's always way to warm, something wrong ? I'm 26 this morning and they are reporting 32 ? It's always 6 or so degrees off. There are a lot of of problems with where NOAA/NCDC have placed their stations to gather temperature data. See The Surface Stations Project for more on that. The local station in my area is located somewhere warm, too. In summer, it can report ten or fifteen degrees warmer than the local weatherfan stations that report online to Weather Underground or the ones that are on CoCoRahs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Can I have a little downslope please http://www.accuweather.com/us/radar/sir/sc_/radar.asp?play=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Lol.. I still want my snowstorm the euro ensembles gave earlier this week. +1 Czar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I don't know...I think that goofy-looking morning met at News 14 does OK sometimes.... That is some mega-CAD showing up on the Euro. Matthew, Please accept my apologies. I've lived here for 36 years and just always think of the local news as being 2, 8, and 12 (not even 45/48). The only time I watched the news/weather is 10 o'clock weekdays and sometimes 11. I always check out your blog and video when we're in "active" patterns. I need to get out of my rut and start watching your broadcasts. When are you on? Thanks TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Haha.... no need for apologies at all. I was just kidding around. I appreciate you watching the blog/ video though. I am on weekday mornings 5am through the 10:51am hit. Matthew, Please accept my apologies. I've lived here for 36 years and just always think of the local news as being 2, 8, and 12 (not even 45/48). The only time I watched the news/weather is 10 o'clock weekdays and sometimes 11. I always check out your blog and video when we're in "active" patterns. I need to get out of my rut and start watching your broadcasts. When are you on? Thanks TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 IMO there is a pretty good chance of ice early next weekend in NC CAD region. 1030+ HP in NY is consistently showing up on every model run, with overruning. The caveat is with Lake cutters you never end up with as much precip as modeled, usually due to a energy transfer to the coast to your north(millerBish). One thing that really sticks out on the 6z gfs if you go all the way through the run it is below normal cold. You can see the blocky look restablishing itself, probably a notch futher west then what transpired in Dec. If this holds serve, the stj should bear some good fruit as Feb rolls on with fading La nina and we would have higher than normal odds of getting licked a time or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Matthew, I watch you every morning I looked at the data and 2m temps and 850s look a lot warmer than 12z Euro had ? I don't think I even get down to freezing here in Surry County. EDIT: It shows about .07 qpf with temp around or slightly below freezing. BTW- Why don't or Who needs to contact Mount Airy Temp sensor reporting they need to get it out from in front of the heater.lol It's always way to warm, something wrong ? I'm 26 this morning and they are reporting 32 ? It's always 6 or so degrees off. It's funny you say that .A couple years ago I menthond that to Van Denton,in an e-mail, and he says this there seems to be a warm bias on the temps for this ares .After looking at, Watts Up With That, and seeing all the misleading monitors I can see why it 's that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like somebody from NWS (I guess) would look in to getting it fixed. It's been like that for a long time The tempurature monitor is at theMt.Airy airport,probably next to the runway,.There is another one at Jones emementary school,probably on the roof.The reason they don't change it is because it goes along with the AGW that they are so hung up on.You really need to check out ,Watts up with that ,site.Very eye opening.He talks of all the tempuratures monitors that have either been moved ,next to asphalt parking lots,on roof tops next to heat pumps not to menthond the many that have been shut down all together ouside the city.You may can also find it on you tube type in Anthony Watts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I don't know...I think that goofy-looking morning met at News 14 does OK sometimes.... That is some mega-CAD showing up on the Euro. Matthew, Living 30 miles SW of ATL. our options for TV news and weather are truly depressing. I gave up watching locals news and weather both mornings and prime time years ago. I truly wish we had the option of watching you for our local weather. It would tempt me to tune in, at least for the weather segment. Your blog and videos are great! Thanks for making them available to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 there looks to be a lot of potential in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 there looks to be a lot of potential in the coming weeks. looks a lake cutter next week though, i wish it wasn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 looks like below normal temps will hold on until the middle of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I read another Mets thoughts on up coming pattern and he says big changes on the way (early spring) for SE Mid late Feb. But cold comes back March and April for veggie killing !!! I want mention his Big Dog name on here, For danger of being flamed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Maybe some of us can get some severe weather from this system. I wouldn't mind it at all. SPC: DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011 VALID 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... 00Z ECMWF/GEFS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN-CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAYS 4-5/. WHILE THE DETAILS OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES ARE UNCERTAIN...THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER FORCING/ANTICIPATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...COMBINED WITH THE QUICK RETURN OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INITIALLY ACROSS TX MONDAY NIGHT/LATE DAY 4 INTO TUESDAY/DAY 5. AS SUCH...THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED AROUND DAY 5/TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX/ARKLATEX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE DEGREE OF GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF A POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT PRECLUDE 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO DAY 6/WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS VERY LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FFC: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...WELL ANY CONSISTENCIESTHE MODELS MAY HAVE HAD GO OUT THE WINDOW IN THE EXTENDED PORTION.LATEST ECMWF COMING IN HAS GONE FROM A SNOWSTORM IN ITS PREVIOUSRUN OVER NORTH GA TO A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THEFORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY...AT LEASTWITH THIS 00Z SET...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INBRINGING SURFACE LOW WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A DEEP FETCH OFGULF MOISTURE TO MOVE IN AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THECENTRAL PLAINS. SIMILARITIES STOP THERE AS ECMWF SHOWS ANIMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW SETUP WHICH WOULD ALLOW SURFACE LOW TOTRACK DUE NORTH WHILE AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFTDEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WOULD ALLOW A BRIEFPERIOD OF HIGH HELICITY VALUES TO BE JUXTAPOSED WITH INCREASINGINSTABILITY WED. GFS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURESBUT DOES MANAGE TO BRING SAME HELICITY AND INSTABILITY INGREDIENTSTO THE TABLE. HAVE JUST INTRODUCED THUNDER FOR NOW AND WILLMENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT BASED ON MODELPERFORMANCE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETAIL ANY SPECIFICS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Very kind of you....I appreciate it! Matthew, Living 30 miles SW of ATL. our options for TV news and weather are truly depressing. I gave up watching locals news and weather both mornings and prime time years ago. I truly wish we had the option of watching you for our local weather. It would tempt me to tune in, at least for the weather segment. Your blog and videos are great! Thanks for making them available to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 My initial thoughts for early next week was severe weather due to the huge warmup this week. If that does occur, don't forget that it could cut QPF across the northern southern states, especially if a squall line forms and robs moisture to folks in TN/SC/NC. Very possible. We'll need a front to move through to get us back or below normal before we can talk about winter storms. As everyone has mentioned, the best shot of cooler air would be a wedge builiding in from the NE. I'm trying my best to not look too far in advance because I've done this the past month with all of these systems, and lost too much sleep because of the potential impacts. (too draining) I just don't want to give my hopes up. But man, I would love for a severe weather event. Hadn't had those in a while! Winter is far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 IF hp builds in over the northeast, I woujld be very concerned about icing over the cad areas. With such cold air to the north, all it will take is 1024 or higher sitting over the northeast during precip to result in zr. Look for hp to begin showing up over the northeast in the coming days. It will also hang on longer than the models depict. Thus, I think there is risk for significant icing before a changeover would ever occur. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 La nina finally getting herself into the action. I think mr big dog is on the money with his outlook. Crappy spring this year, if you like a normal one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z NAM had a 1032 High in PA at the end of it's run, I'm sure it'll get scooted out to sea but if it could stick around for awhile could it help establishing cooler temps later on down the road for the CAD to work with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Very kind of you....I appreciate it! Matthew : I really enjoy watching your forcast on the internet .I found your site last year ,durring the winterof course, and follow your pretty much every day during the week .Ireally enjoy the way you explain the weather and about the pattern we are in.Iknow this winter is far different than many had projected it to be.I feel tstrongly that this is setting up a pattern of winters to come in the future. I'm very pleased to see you are a christian and that you put your trust in the Lord.I trusted the Lord back in 78 and although i've fail him many time he has never failed me.Keep up the great work . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 06z DGEX develops the trailing s/w after the lakes cutter passes and gives the south a pretty significant ice/snow storm. http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html IMO, that's the best chance we have at getting anything from this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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