Feb 2-4 Storm

[FoothillsNC]

All mets are talking about how the cold is coming back next week. On tv last night all the locals showed warming up until tuesday then cold comes back, JB had a big hype on how cold it will be until at least mid february. So I don't think the cold is leaving but without moisture blocking we get nothing but cold rain just like now. 36degrees and cold rain

I dont think the cold here is a completely settled idea yet. The trough could actually dig more in the central and western half, which could place us in SW flow aloft, or maybe westerly, and moderate cold, depends on how the ridging orients out west. But the PV may be in just the right spot to really send down one heck of a cold front in about a week, the models are having trouble and until we get good agreement, anything is possible yet. Could be one big cold front, or maybe not. I could also see us getting into a cold and just dry pattern, but its better to leave all options open for now.

[Lookout]

Yes, I think the EURO handled this last storm pretty poorly IMO. And it continues to honk big cold that never quite comes to fruition. Though is seems the most reliable in some situations, I'm starting to think it has something to do with seeing -NAO conditions well like it did in Dec/Jan. I don't know, but this last storm was a swing and a miss in the medium range.

I'm pulling for the GFS forecast as of this time!! I reserve the right to switch at any given moment.

It didn't do any worse than any of the other models, which might not be saying much though. However, to me anyway, although it had a few runs here or there that did show snow in the nc foothills, otherwise it never showed much snow outside the mountains. It was more consistent but like every other model it was too far south. I think part of the perception it did poorly was because people were saying it was showing snow when it really wasn't. Some of the analysis of the models with this system was pretty poor at times to be honest with you.

[SnowNiner]

It didn't do any worse than any of the other models, which might not be saying much though. However, to me anyway, although it had a few runs here or there that did show snow in the nc foothills, otherwise it never showed much snow outside the mountains. It was more consistent but like every other model it was too far south. I think part of the perception it did poorly was because people were saying it was showing snow when it really wasn't. Some of the analysis of the models with this system was pretty poor at times to be honest with you.

Interesting. My thoughts were it was too far south and the qpf was way overdone too (even when we were finally reserved to rain). I thought the GGEM and the UKMET had a more accurate track but I could be wrong on that. In regard to analyzing it incorrectly, that certainly could have been an issue I think. It seemed like what was happening alot was there were statements made about what could happen and making is sound it was probable to happen...i.e. evaporative cooling, bombing cooling, deformation band rapid rates, etc. I think we may have gotten lost in the couldas and didn't see the gonnas.

In any event I guess I'm going to try to wait for more of a model consensus instead of putting all my eggs (snowy hope eggs) in one basket for future storms. Especially with next week where none of the models seem to have any idea of what's going to happen.

[triadwx]

Well I go to look at some of the long-range indicators today, and today the NAO, AO, and PNA ensembles are showing +, +, and - in the long range. I know that if this is going to be the case then, hello spring. We just can't have so many things working against us for another good winter storm..

[Cold Rain]

I really like the look of both the 0Z GFS and CMC at around 144-156 hrs. Both show strong HP dropping into the Plains with an offshoot of that in the NE. Both show a northern stream wave dropping SE toward the SE (although the CMC is more amplified). Both spark a system somewhere in the SE, although it's not a strong system. Potentially, there is southern stream energy to get involved, but the models have done so poorly estimating both the timing and strength of southern energy this year, I am not too concerned about that right now. The overall look is appealing to me, starting with rule number 1... An HP of decent strength in a favorable location. There will be energy around, which we can worry about as we get closer. In this pattern though, without a good high to the N or NW, you can forget about everything else.

Of course, the Euro has the whole pattern shifted to the west and we get a Lakes cutter. I don't like that solution for my back yard, so I'm throwing it out.

Seriously, I've been watching this time frame for a while, and I think this is our next best potential...at least until the 12Zs take it away.

[triadwx]

I just took a look at the 00z CMC, and it looks pretty defined, well compared to the ECMWF. The ECMWF is really all over the place, and that again would be another cold rain. The CMC is close for most of NC, it splits NC into thirds, with the southern third getting rain, and the northern 2 thirds getting snow, or something frozen falling from the sky. Not really buying the GFS at this point, because it delays this thing 4 or 5 days, and it's just sitting there in the gulf. Though it is more organized than the ECMWF, there is nothing to make it stall in the gulf, so not buying that. CMC is going to be the most realistic model at this point, just because it is actually using common sense in it's solutions. The JMA is also going crazy with this solution, how about 20-30"+ in Nashville, and a fall thunderstorm here? JMA is just being the JMA 192 hours out. So I agree that this is the next legitimate change for a storm, though it's looking like more of a rain storm then snow storm on the eastern side of the Apps. Still a lot of time for that to change.

[Brick Tamland]

The models are all over the place again, so we'll probably just get rain here.

[Cold Rain]

The models are all over the place again, so we'll probably just get rain here.

That's the case cracker! I've been wondering how to tell if we're going to get rain or snow. When the models are all over the place you get rain. That's how you tell. Awesome!

Pack it in, boys. It's just gonna be rain.

[Brick Tamland]

That's the case cracker! I've been wondering how to tell if we're going to get rain or snow. When the models are all over the place you get rain. That's how you tell. Awesome!

Pack it in, boys. It's just gonna be rain.

well, you can't depend on the models more than 24 hours out, and sometimes that is too far out.

[DaculaWeather]

That's the case cracker! I've been wondering how to tell if we're going to get rain or snow. When the models are all over the place you get rain. That's how you tell. Awesome!

Pack it in, boys. It's just gonna be rain.

If I had known it was that easy I would have quit model watching a long time ago!

[FoothillsNC]

the 12z GFS has the southwest trough or ULL that will need to be watched in about 6 or 7 days. If the next cold trough comes through the east with too much troughing, it would allow the Southwest system to stay put, and not affect us. But if the cold shot is moderate, that may allow enough southwest flow aloft and open the door for the southwest system to come in, but its questionable how much cold air is around the central and east. Definitely worth watching, I'm sure GFS and ECMWF will play with the position of that over the next several runs.

[Weather Czar]

Perfect spot for the gfs at this time frame. Without the mega blocking we have had this will probably come north.

[dsaur]

The models are all over the place again, so we'll probably just get rain here. there will probably be massive amounts of sleet down where Tony lives!

Fixed it T

[superjames1992]

The models are all over the place again, so we'll probably just get rain here.

I had 7" of snow on the ground at this moment one month ago. Science tells us that if you get a cold rain exactly one month after you had 6"+ of snow on the ground, then Old Man Winter will pay you a visit within two weeks and drop a minimum of 12" of snow during that timeframe. You just gotta research this stuff, man; no reason to think we're not going to get anything.

[bingcrosbyb]

the 12z GFS has the southwest trough or ULL that will need to be watched in about 6 or 7 days. If the next cold trough comes through the east with too much troughing, it would allow the Southwest system to stay put, and not affect us. But if the cold shot is moderate, that may allow enough southwest flow aloft and open the door for the southwest system to come in, but its questionable how much cold air is around the central and east. Definitely worth watching, I'm sure GFS and ECMWF will play with the position of that over the next several runs.

We've seen the 1040mb HP's progged by the GFS in the 5-7 day window only to turn into 1030mb HP's this winter with moderate cold shots. I don't buy the GFS troughing from 126-192 and the s/w sitting this one out just yet. Nice to see the GFS have a vort pretty far west though. Looks pretty stout for this timeframe.

[griteater]

I think we need to keep an eye on the polar vortex in Canada. If we can get that to sag south into Hudson Bay or a little further south as models are hinting, we could have a good setup without the presence of the traditional -NAO block and 50/50 low. The comparison that comes to mind is Jan 22, 1987 - NARR 01/22/87. This morning's GGEM has a large polar air mass that sags slowly south and covers everyone east of the Rockies.

[MichaelJ]

Not to play the Debbie Downer role, but I think we have seen the last accumulating snow for the majority of the SE barring the block and -NAO coming back. Could happen but I think cold and dry or warm up and rain are our prospects from here on out. ( and no, I am not related to Brick)

[superjames1992]

Not to play the Debbie Downer role, but I think we have seen the last accumulating snow for the majority of the SE barring the block and -NAO coming back. Could happen but I think cold and dry or warm up and rain are our prospects from here on out. ( and no, I am not related to Brick)

The Northerners had their PSUHoffman Storm; it's time for us to have the "BRICK TAMLAND STORM". It would be a guaranteed success.

[Cold Rain]

The Euro is Johnny on the spot with that Lakes cutter at 144+. When it shows a se winter storm, it gets rid of that in like 2 runs. But it's holding on to the Lakes cutter for dear life. Surely that will change 7 days out right?

[Weather Czar]

The Euro is Johnny on the spot with that Lakes cutter at 144+. When it shows a se winter storm, it gets rid of that in like 2 runs. But it's holding on to the Lakes cutter for dear life. Surely that will change 7 days out right?

3 things in life are certain. Death, taxes, and lakes cutters.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Meteorologically, I may be completely wrong but it seems like sometimes you needs a Lakes Cutter to re-establish a deep cold trough in the Eastern US. Days 6, 7, 8 indeed does that. Then afterwards we need to watch to our southwest for any systems to come across.

[Cold Rain]

3 things in life are certain. Death, taxes, and lakes cutters.

Indeed. I want to start seeing a -NAO before it's too late.

[WhiteoutWX]

Meteorologically, I may be completely wrong but it seems like sometimes you needs a Lakes Cutter to re-establish a deep cold trough in the Eastern US. Days 6, 7, 8 indeed does that. Then afterwards we need to watch to our southwest for any systems to come across.

Ya the massive lakes cutter in November is what kicked off the extended -NAO period to start the winter.

[BIG FROSTY]

The Euro is Johnny on the spot with that Lakes cutter at 144+. When it shows a se winter storm, it gets rid of that in like 2 runs. But it's holding on to the Lakes cutter for dear life. Surely that will change 7 days out right?

How many 7 day Ice/snow storms has the euro showed this year ? If we had all the euro 7 day storms we would have had a record snow/Ice winter...

But I agree it will keep this lakes cutter, And verify too.

[griteater]

Meteorologically, I may be completely wrong but it seems like sometimes you needs a Lakes Cutter to re-establish a deep cold trough in the Eastern US. Days 6, 7, 8 indeed does that. Then afterwards we need to watch to our southwest for any systems to come across.

Yep, and that's where I was going with my previous post

[Cold Rain]

How many 7 day Ice/snow storms has the euro showed this year ? If we had all the euro 7 day storms we would have had a record snow/Ice winter...

But I agree it will keep this lakes cutter, And verify too.

Yeah we've had some massive 7+ day winter storms...some of the best in recent memory.

[HKY_WX]

euro has a decent icestorm for western and central NC on tuesday. imo that has potential to trend colder too. need to watch early next week closely for that.

[Marion_NC_WX]

euro has a decent icestorm for western and central NC on tuesday. imo that has potential to trend colder too. need to watch early next week closely for that.

Good catch Brandon...I was looking at the North American surface and 500 mb maps before I posted. But now looking at the US maps, definite wedge configuration on the front side of that lakes cutter.

[nchighcountrywx]

Agree. Analysis I have seen with the lacking of blocking and all indicates upcoming cold outbreaks will not likely penetrate as far deep south as models show. They also will be more transitory in nature. Outside of mountain high country events, the storm track for snow will likely stay well north of where it was in January.

I'd rather see something different, but as of now, that's what I'd go with.

[HKY_WX]

Good catch Brandon...I was looking at the North American surface and 500 mb maps before I posted. But now looking at the US maps, definite wedge configuration on the front side of that lakes cutter.

Even as of now, it gives Marion to Greensboro a solid .3 to .5 inch of sleet/freezing rain on Monday night and Tuesday. This is with a SLP over the great lakes. So it has potential for sure. I can see raw text data to prove this.