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Don't know why the media yesterday painted today as a wet showery day after the morning when guidance had it after 8pm

Would explain why I’ve been so extremely congested for the past week. Just chalked it up to allergies, but normally symptoms aren’t this severe for me.

ive never seen the NAM3k enthused about any precip

2 pages if it were 75 miles S. 1 of them all bitching and moaning. 12Z Euro spitting out 5 to 1 ratios for NE IL. Get out the pick axe's lol

Flagstaff had some very hot summers in the late 1800s: https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?az3010 It's very possible that their was a thermometer is those summers, though 1898 in particular was hot throughout the region. But those are the official records for Flagstaff per the WRCC.

3k NAM is less enthused but still gives something to most:

Tor seems to be on the ground nearing Roaring Spring S of Altoona. Nasty hook.

18z 12k NAM says yes:

gif i made of some stills from a ~90sec video of the tornado in wheatfield yesterday. this was about 4 miles ESE of the city, looking northwest. the lightning was frequent enough to be able to pull a good amount of frames.

85 in Pen Mar

record high of 82 there-beat the old one of 75

hmmm... Hmmmm......

Hey @jaxjagman I have no idea. How was the wind at your location?

That sucks

It will be a universal miss. Not doom casting but precip chasing cold. We know better.

Have you ever tried it?.

We got our severe thunderstorm watch at 210 and it was stamped at 220,something was off

Surface temps are pushing 80 which primes the Valley. Storms coming in from Middle Tennessee have meant business. We'll see how they hold across the Plateau. Not much action yet in North Mississippi. I believe it's a local area of subsidence (or at least less rising) in the wake of the Tennessee stuff. Another upper wave lurks, making quick progress from the Ark-La-Tex. Good thing the low levels are veered off all crazy. If those winds were backed and/or had better convergence on a mesoscale boundary it'd be trouble. As it is, just the synoptic front and its orientation should favor mainly straight-line wind. The hatched 2% remains valid and legit. Still this is mainly gonna be straight wind. No chase plans.

KLYH hit 88 degrees at 3:30 Wild.

RDU up to 89, can they make it to 90? Probably have about 30 min left to do it

trying to figure out if i need to cancel an early evening gathering at church—is the line of rain and possibly a few storms in the Eastern Panhandle right now likely to be all there is in our tornado watch box, or is there more behind it?

Looks about right.

I know some people doing research w/ lake-breeze fronts and their influence on CI, this could be really useful for a case study

And suddenly it's raining. Wasn't expecting any precip until after 10pm.

counterpoint: do some posts about every model run