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You wonder if these will be the common temperatures all winter.

Touch of frost on the cars this morning!! nothing on the grass though

Looks like the MHT sensor shit the bed

Not sure if we touched the upper 30s pre-dawn; 41/34 now.

Pulled out my first sweatshirt of the year this morning.

I think The Eagles are finished. I know it's still early but there are too many injuries to make up for. I know they were 2-2 two years ago and won the Super Bowl. This is just a completely different vibe going on. Maybe something will click and they go on a nice run. That was a fun preseason game to watch for the Sixers last night.

Very impressive to get a near record 594+dm Southeast ridge during an El Niño October. So a continuation of the ridge axis located further south than usual since last May. The typical -EPO October El Niño ridge will probably finish this month the furthest south for an El Niño October.

42/36 this morning

37 for the low here. Didn't see any frost.

It is an interesting phycological effect with the transition seasons. Funny how we adapt to it as we get deeper into each.

Feels like 23°, not 43°.

1st frost advisories up for much of SNE.check on the women and children first.

00z mav mins for tomorrow

42 imby. First butt warmer drive of the season.

42 when I left the house. Had to run some heat in the car this morning.

50 here

38 this morning. Expecting a light freeze tomorrow morning

41 currently

What an early morning sky today. The moon instantly caught my eye with the “star” basically adjacent to the moon. I did not initially realize it was Jupiter, thought maybe Mars. You can also sort of see the un-illuminated part of the moon as the brightness of Jupiter is just enough to give an outline (though it’s obviously exaggerated in the photo)

Zeke Hausfather asks the question, where would we be without renewables?. The answer is: on an energy trajectory without hope. As fast as renewables have increased, we could ramp even faster with more supportive policies. That's how superior the technology has become vs fossil fuels. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/what-if-the-world-hadnt-built-wind

King clickbait

The 00z ECMWF still has a stark 700-300 mb RH gradient early on that just intensifies as it heads N. The pattern/structure at 108 hr for this parameter looks more like a baroclinic leaf than anything. It dependents it to 998 mb, 9 nm weaker than the 00z, which is in line w/ the 1992 and 1994 early Oct events as to am ET low development in the Gulf making landfall. The HAFS-B is much deeper, but also look at its 700-300 mb RH fcst (attached). That configuration strongly suggests a frontal structure and baroclinic leaf. I would find it hard to believe it could drop into the 970s from largely baroclinic forcing. The deepest ET low in the Gulf ion record s 980 mb from the Bliz of 1993 and that had unreal baroclinic support! The GFS does the opposite of the HAFS-B, it makes it strong as a TC early, and *then* weakens is as it heads N. That coulld happen.