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Well, it's not coming up from the south and running west of us....it's a northern stream storm that rides east through the lakes, closes off, and then hits the confluence, turns se and begins to fall apart.

I was thinking that or just a clipper on a bit of HGH. Hoping we can see some more positive trends for us further east today. I fell NY over to WCT are locked in. My other feature to keep an eye on is the linger lighter stuff as the low exits east. We have an easterly fetch to the winds that may give coastal areas lingering OES fluff.

27.3/18 Worthington Valley

The great ice storm of 2025

NWFE…? Lol. Which is a SWFE in reverse. But similar idea..just from a different direction…and reverse the warm air winning out as you said, and replace it with the cold winning.

I'm at 20 here in Manhattan. My farmhouse in Litchfield County CT is 9. Heading up there in two hours. Roaring wood stove and incoming snows. Hopefully we all do well with this system.

Perfect, I can get out of class and get sone things done and not worry about people forgetting how to drive.

Gorgeous sunrise Don…soak it up. Great analysis too on this evolution the last couple days.

Increasing clouds red sky east losing the sun. 25f humidity 52% dewpoint 10f expecting 1.1” of snow followed by sleet 0.4 then freezing rain 0.1. Those are my expectations.

Reasonable, I'd say 4-8 as due to decent upside potential. My exact estimate for CPK is 5.

This is why some of the same SWFE rules in terms of limitations are applicable here...we get there a bit differently, but this is essentially a SWFE in which the cold ultimately winds....usually in those the warmth does in a relative sense.

So Brian, what is this showing…RH at 700mb? That light blue color…is that saturation?

This is gonna be a good one for most of SNE. We’re about 12hrs from game time and the trends still look good. About all you can ask for. Models try to get good snows even up here but I don’t have any expectations. Hope you all get crushed. On another note, if the neighbors didn’t think I was a before they certainly do now. It’s -8.1° here and I just went out in a short sleeve and lounge pants to capture the sunrise. Felt good. -8.1/-12 here at WXW2 -16/-22 WC -29 at KSLK Man cold.

23F

27/17 Chilly and dry…some moisture please

No argument there.

There’s not a lot of moisture to work with in the profile. But if you loop the H5 vorticity trend you will see that s/w and embedded vortmax strengthening and slicing over CNE more with time. So yeah, a little dPVA and some H7 convergence and you get some mid level hangback snows after the main isentropic push affects SW SNE. I guess the key is how moist the low levels remain. If the globals were more NE and the nams were dry I’d be more pessimistic since the nam can sniff out that virga a little better with it’s extra vertical levels…but that isn’t the case. Of course the nam could be on the sauce anyway. It’s probably best to just ride a euro/consensus blend right now.

E Mass Wx map?

Right's...it's attenuating....closing lows over NYS and antecedent dry air doesn't scream S+ to me.

You’ve been hanging with the pope too much…

My final call is 4-6 total for area. I’m going with the op EURO and EPS

My counter to that is that while closed mid level lows are good, having them over NYS isn't.

Biggest limiting factor I see right now is saturating the lower levels. Lot of dry air to overcome. We need storm to hold its structure together for a bit longer further east, otherwise we’re looking at virga.

It’s all good my man. Give me 6-8” and I’ll be very satisfied. Just wish most of it was coming during daylight hours…but I’m not complaining.