All Activity

Feb 2015?

Anyone see the 6z HRRR? I think it is by far its best run yet for us and now the best model output of everything I've seen recently. Will see if its 12z comes back to reality.

Pretty concerned about the train of moisture that has set up along the southern border. It seems that was poorly modeled. It's fine as snow, but I don't think we will be able to maintain 850 temps capable of supporting snow for much longer.

10F -10.5 dew point. NW DC.

25.9°/8°

It's a skating rink down here.

I reviewed both posts and he said it better. Although yours was solid too. Tough call. 7/-8

6z RGEM is looking good

Im actually being serious wasn't there a storm a few years back that was supposed to transition to sleet but didn't as fast...I can see that happening in some places

This has to be the best year for ice fishing in a long time. Early start even in my area. I saw people on the ice in mid December which I can’t recall seeing before.

My chickenshit answer is to not toss them completely. If the euro and NAM stay apart at 12z, take a 70/30 or maybe 60/40 split favoring the euro?

HRRR now gives Chattanooga .7” of snow when it has shown nothing. A little front end surprise looks to be in store.

So this is not an error! 8am Knox airport obs: KNOXVILLE HAIL 29 11 47 N12 30.39R WCI 19

Snow returns on radar as far east as Boone NC and as far south as Russelville AL, Holly Springs MS....interesting

06z GFS on bufkit 0.73" qpf for here, You can do more with less qpf because of ratios 260126/0700Z 49 03010KT 9.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 18:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0 260126/0800Z 50 02010KT 9.2F SNOW 25:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 18:1| 9.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49 100| 0| 0 260126/0900Z 51 02011KT 9.6F SNOW 29:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 20:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0 260126/1000Z 52 02009KT 9.9F SNOW 28:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 20:1| 11.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0 260126/1100Z 53 02010KT 10.3F SNOW 28:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 21:1| 12.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.61 100| 0| 0 260126/1200Z 54 02010KT 10.5F SNOW 30:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 21:1| 13.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260126/1300Z 55 02010KT 10.7F SNOW 30:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 21:1| 13.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 100| 0| 0 260126/1400Z 56 02010KT 11.6F SNOW 28:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 21:1| 14.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0 260126/1500Z 57 02010KT 13.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 21:1| 14.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68 100| 0| 0 260126/1600Z 58 02011KT 15.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 21:1| 14.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68 0| 0| 0 260126/1700Z 59 02011KT 16.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 21:1| 14.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68 0| 0| 0 260126/1800Z 60 02010KT 16.2F SNOW 23:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 21:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260126/1900Z 61 01010KT 16.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 21:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 0| 0| 0 260126/2000Z 62 01009KT 16.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 21:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 0| 0| 0 260126/2100Z 63 02009KT 15.2F SNOW 20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 21:1| 14.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 100| 0| 0 260126/2200Z 64 02008KT 14.3F SNOW 17:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 21:1| 14.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.70 100| 0| 0 260126/2300Z 65 01007KT 13.5F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 21:1| 15.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71 100| 0| 0 260127/0000Z 66 36006KT 13.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 21:1| 15.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260127/0100Z 67 36005KT 13.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 21:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0 260127/0200Z 68 01004KT 13.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 21:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0

I may go full tilt is it's seven degrees outside and fuckin raining :LOL:

The initial front end thump is definitely going to be impressive. That’s locked in, I think the only remaining question is, when does the changeover to sleet with the warm nose then dry slot happen? As a sweeping generality, I’d say 6-10 in the NYC metro area (including the immediate north and west suburbs) before the changeover/dry slot

Its a wee bit chilly....Great for ice fishing. No trucks or ATVS breaking through the ice this year. My friend built himself a 5x8 Bob house. Put it out on the ice last weekend at Martin Meadow. Cut some holes in the ice and said the ice was at least 24 inches thick

One of the big differences is a not insignificantly stronger 850mb low on the NAM… I feel like I’d trust the euro more on low placements and strength. Temp profile goes to NAM if those are pretty much the same but they aren’t in this case. Also I feel like I trust the euro QPF over the NAM. But I haven’t been looking at these models as long as many of the people here…

Not too bad in the Sun.

Since ‘08! Let’s go!!! That was in March too so it was gone in like 3 days.

Great for ice fishing. No trucks or ATVS breaking through the ice this year. My friend built himself a 5x8 Bob house. Put it out on the ice last weekend. Cut some holes in the ice and said the ice was at least 24 inches thick