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Northern Neck might be a good spot for this "event".

Welp, no snow yesterday. And I'm doing ok today but slept SUPER heavily and missed the squall and somehow even the warning ?! . Went out at 8 a.m. measured a few spots on the deck, 0.2" as average. Abingdon mesonet snow depth was same at 8 a.m. but had more earlier. Bel Air spotter 0.2" Neither place that close to here idk outta energy again lol 0.2" it is. Happy new year to all!

Where has LongBeachSurfFreak been?

Don't underestimate the drifts that .5 on top of a glacier can cause in this wind, so good ones out here along 416.

The runs d10-15 have some decent rigor in regards to the long wave 500 pattern. I think where frustrations occur(me included at times) is the details are often just wonky and getting wonkier - see 12z today. My main concern is that some of the solutions make zero sense. Prior to November, the solution might be wrong at that range...but at least it looked plausible. I am a big believer in getting the pattern right, and then let the chips (details) fall where they may. I am cautiously optimistic that we have a chance at a good EPO pattern right when our climatology is the best, beginning around Jan 12-13 for a TBD duration. I think we can use d10-16 maps to get a clue as to that pattern. Sometimes we will see a model lock onto a big storm at that range, and nail it...but generally only w/ big storms. I have seen the GFS nail two strat splits at d16....it has an uncanny ability to model the stratosphere at range, maybe not so much the surface at range.

I can confirm that Rainthuen has survived the latest onslaught from Old Man Winter despite having nearly 3/4 of an inch of snow... #RAINTHUENSTRONG

Well anyone is free to counter my " bold guess"....provided of course it isn't wishcasting..

Ensembles have all run. Generally (exception EPS since it only goes to d15), these are 5day blends of d11-16. In other words, we are taking January 12-17th. I have attached the 12z GEFS and compared it to its 18z run yesterday - flip city. Key notes: -The EPO ridge looks legit. WHERE it sets up is going to be important. -The 12z GEPS is probably the best case, but it is hard not to like the 12z AIFS Euro ensemble w/ that Alaskan block. -Now the 12z EPS is interesting. That is more of a PNA ridge. Likely feedback over Alaska w/ that trough. -12z GEFS is trending considerably towards an eastern trough. It retrogrades the ridge rapidly, leaving only a narrow window for cold. But the trend is your friend with this model. What a great look around 276. -The ridge is retrograding for sure. It remains to be seen whether it stops in the EPO region or continues to retrograde into Asia as Holston correctly noted is a risk. I think it sticks the landing, but that is only a hunch. -Mammoth is getting hammered today as is Los Angeles. There may be rain in the Rose Bowl. -Good trends w/ ensembles at 12z. With deterministic runs all over the map...this is probably the best way to go. -Increasing risk of a stalled frontal boundary. The 12z GEM has it at 240, but as Icy would correctly note...it is 240. The 12z Euro flirts with that as well. That risk is even more apparent on ensembles. I don't see a big snow accumulation bump, but one can easily see the gradient pattern s/ a slight southwest to northeast axis after Jan 10. Thats's all. Oregon has already scored while I right this. Ducks up 13-0...the Ducks are pulling the truck!

Winds are back again. Blowing 40 mph. Had so many 50 gusts overnight. CTP really undercut wind today.

Looks good, we pretty much all thought that though on Tuesday. My point was we still have some lighter threats to track so not dry, and cutters although likely are not guaranteed not sold on warmth 100% yet. Over this past weekend into Monday, the -NAO block idea on EPS tricked me, that idea is not happening. We can all agree that we have to wait to post Jan 12ish for anything significant.

Can't really complain about winter at all. Way above our average this time of year. Now lets get a bigger storm and get above our average for a change.

I think what you mean to say is that places to the south(and east) Have been at or above climo for those locations while places NW have largely been below for those areas. There is a significant difference in what is 'normal' snowfall for southern DE compared to places NW of Baltimore. Pretty sure PSU has had more snow than Lewes every winter since 2017(except maybe one).

This is pope’s post from 2 days ago.

Ya for the interior for sure.. At this point, only need one good coastal to hit climo along the south coast..

We could use them so we actually don’t finish another year BN in snowfall. Getting weakening overrunning systems and clippers won’t be sustainable for anyone who averages over about 40” per year.

Well isn’t that even more reason to want snow whether it’s an inch or 9?

The op EURO/EPS was absolutely awful with its big west-based -NAO block it kept insisting on for days, run after run for early-mid January, which is totally gone now. A really bad performance with that

Little low too, the last event was a 10 spot here alone

See this is where the forum divides. The snow climo for south of Baltimore to NOVA has been better for almost 10 years. The person who made that joke thread for the northern half of the forum wasn't completely wrong!

Actually after the initial heavy snow burst it continued to snow until 6 a.m. It was a solid squall but not as impressive as the one that came through in January 2020 the following morning of the only snowfall we had that year. That squall was the highlight of what was just an awful year. We got about 5 inches the day before then squall put down 2 inches in 40 minutes the following morning. It was a total whiteout. Attached is a picture of that morning during the height of the squall.

Less subtle hint...the 12z GEFS ensemble runs looks good as does the EPS. That energy getting held back in the Southwest w/ a trough over the east. Yeppers!

Bring it on! See this is why at first I wasn't even gonna give this winter the time of day and just track the PDO ahead of what looks like a possible niño next year (but then the cold and slightly snowy start reeled me in, lol) I really want us to have a better swing at than the hostile -PDO of the 23-24 niño that couldn't do jack diddly. I feel more confident in next year breaking our above average drought than this year.

We could use the coastals so we can all be friends again lmao