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Could you post your thoughts on what you think will happen up in the snowbelt east of Lake Ontario. Just for fun while there's low attendance lol

Finally... https://comicbook.com/gaming/news/kingdom-hearts-4-release-window-and-first-new-world-confirmed-in-new-trailer/

Yes, i agree. and yes, avoid social media w/ all its hype and gloom and doom rhetoric! Looking at radar, you'd think that Lala is easily a min hurricane, but it shows how things can be misleading. A less apparent mitigating factor is that Lala started out as a monsoonal system, so it already had a broad pressure field and center. Monsoonal TCs generally do not tighten up much, esp. for its inner core, so I think that why you have a clear eye feature on radar, but the winds are less than what you would expect. The eye is now apparent on IR, but it is very ragged and the convection is not smoothly banded around it. That indicates shear and dry air still present. Recon not since last night, so the one en route now will be interesting, but Doppler velocities suggest little change through 15z. The overall point I was conveying from the start is that Lala is not you typical TC, and had more against it than for from the start, so odds of RI were low and it intensity curve would not be like many TC evolution we see for one moving W in the deep tropics. These kind of details count. I see far too many "social-meteorologists" and hype-masters gloss over things and treat all TCs the same as if it is "one-size fits all." Nothing could be further from the truth! For example, I bet there are some out there that are saying, "radar shows a clear eye, and now there is an eye on satellite, why isn't it upgraded to a hurricane?!" And yes, I can see why. Say Lala was far at sea. In the absence of in situ recon data, going by satellite estimates alone, when an eye is present, even if ragged, that usually mean min hurricane strength (Dvorak Technique says this). But again, one needs to examine all data available and the details for a proper assessment. My hope contributing to this forum is point out the finer details of TCs and their nuances/idiosyncrasies b/c the variance from TC to TC can be very large.

Seems like the center will pass well south of the big island, but with elevation I’m sure some very strong winds will occur on land

The Andy Dalton era gets underway tonight. Goosebumps!

Yep looking active around the region.

I’m a mix of pop and folk songs personally, and my sister loves Taylor so as an extension I do too. Red and enchanted are great, but 1989 will always be a defining album of my teen years. Last year did a full song listen through and realized how good Folklore and Evermore are, though I prefer the crane wives for folk. Sad to see she’s highk fallen off since midnights but is what it is. As for why people hate her she is a very successful women who endorsed a 2024 presidential candidate and that, for some completely unknown and unguessable reason, annoys some people.

Thunderstorms started early today. Frequent lightning with the current cluster in Haywood County.

3 days with rain in a row here: 0.13" Wed, 0.97" Thurs (though could have done without the 1"+ hail which caused a little garden damage) and 0.39" yesterday. Can we make it 4? That would be the first time in a long, long time.

No doubt its going to be warmer than normal but those temperature departures are ridiculous. Just remember the warmest winter we had was 01-02 and that was neutral enso..Who really knows?

I am just on Facebook mostly now. I have an account on X, but barely use it

Still too long and cold for my liking. Another +1C doesn’t move the needle much up here.

Classic low-top, high-based "squished CAPE" cell wider than tall! Cold at 500 does wonders! And the cell just reeks "unstable" w/ its chaotic congestus appearance. Like the "chaotic sky" when ACCAS is present. This is an ACCAS on steroids you could say!

Yeah, this is my experience. I was worried that they were going to be everywhere, but there just haven't been that many adults.

I just don't get anything out of operating under the assumption that others have nothing to offer.

I like Alt rock. One of my fave female rock vocalists has her share of haters, much of it conspiracy driven crap.

i just don't get anything out of talking to people who don't know that much

I don't think the AM convection Sunday will be a detriment for later. There is solid support for the aftn-eve w/ a 700/500 trof moving in. PWATs increase in the aftn to as high 2.5" on the GFS/ECMWF/NAM, and there is very good directional shear w/ nicely looped hodographs and strong veering 925/850 to 700/500. Wind fields 925-500 ramp up in the aftn to 35-40 kt at all these levels. So supercells likely and the 2% tor risk is warranted. Could see upgraded to 5% given the strength of the 925 winds (30 kt+ is excellent and we have it fcst as high as 40 kt). Everything moves steadily W to E, unlike the previous events that were NW to SE and that pushed all the moisture and boundary focus S, so solid recovery for instability after the AM convection is a good bet. FF threat, as noted, is there are well. RRFS is quite aggressive for cntrl and nrn VA showing up to 7.5" of rain. This model tends to overdo things, but 4" in some locations high prob IMHO.

Honestly, though...I don't think anyone could read through my material over the course of the past couple of years and come away with the conclusion that I am in denial of, or neglecting CC. I think that is also true of this forum for the most part.

X is toxic. Full of bots and trolls. 90% garbage. Unfortunately many of the sports insiders and weather geeks primarily post there.

why should i give you my expertise for free