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Nice downpour. 0.86”

Yeah, barring a major volcanic event happening really soon (like Pinatubo did in mid-June just before a robust el nino), I think most of us can agree that there will be another baseline temperature jump coming.

Moving younger daughter back from UConn today. Sunny breaks and was into the 60’s there and a little dewy . The sweat was tickling . Felt good. Only .25 from these showers with backedge not too far

Just dumped another bag of pellets in the stove. 47 is the high for today.

It did get cooler .

Another day, another 0.20” in the bucket, 55F.

Today absolutely blows. Saying today is depressing is an understatement

I’m so F’ng tired of it being 45, cloudy and rainy on Saturdays. If it’s not raining it is blowing 30. Like who pissed off Mother Nature? Haven’t had a single round of golf this year with even remotely ok scoring conditions and it’s really starting to piss me off.

Chuck’s clearly refers to the strong -SOI of these two. I can add the even stronger -SOI of 1977-8: But keep in mind that these 3’s ONI peaks were only +0.8 to +1.2 per Webb or only weak to low end moderate: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

I mean if the gov’t would stop spreading boxes full of them that would be great.

That's unherd of.

Yeah there's some interesting stuff in the dataset. I believe the warm winter of 1949-50 was a strong Nina.

The pattern has been largely de-amplified with much of the h5 energy on the weak side-strung out and mostly to the north of us. PWATs have sucked with a predominant westerly component to the flow- all downslope with little to no flow/moisture ingress from the south. Comfortable temps with low DPs, but not conducive to getting any appreciable rainfall in our area this time of year. If we want rain we need a big ass HP off the coast to pump the warm/moist air northward with some cold fronts moving through.. we need warm and humid.

Careful what you wish for.... I got clipped by the pop-up shower around 1:30p. Got a whopping 0.02" out of it!

I was only referring to the comment about 2013-14...I said it in spring 2014 and ill say it to the end...there will never be another 2013-14. Goes far beyond just being the snowiest winter on record. A retired local climatologist did a writeup at the time how it was the most severe winter on record and all the things that made it that. Not repeating that winter has nothing to do with warmer globe or anything like that. It was a winter that defied local climo. As for 2015-16 thru 2024-25, ive discussed it several times as well as how it differed from the warmth of the east. Here it was a product of 5 very mild winters (15-16, 16-17, 19-20, 22-23, 23-24) and the rest around avg (+/- a minimal amt) whereas the east was consistent mild each year. I will say though that 2025-26 was solidly colder than avg. Its colder than the longterm avg and its colder than the coldest 30-year normal in the entire period of record. The departure would be even more impressive if not for a sharp rebound the 2nd half of Feb. Lastly, what has intrigued me more than anything is how the past several decades, milder winters have less correlation to low snowfall (not just les but synoptic too) than they used to. Its more of a crapshoot now.

You might be surprised what a Super El Nino can produce pattern wise in the Winter,, an event that isn't totally east-based allows the GOA low/+EPO to disconnect a bit. A lot of warm bias from limited examples. I think there are some really cold Strong Nino's in the 1895-1948 dataset, or at least very warm Strong Nina's (counter-examples) Here's one.. strong -SOI in the Winter of 1911-12 Another strong -SOI Winter

Gonna be cutting the lawn twice this week. Been a helluva run for the lawns and gardens.

Summer dews and heat are near. LFG!

Earlier mesos were chucking mid to upper 60's here. Currently 51, rain, and a north wind.

Found this in the NYC forum, the Appalachians are acting like an anti rain force field for pretty much the entire eastern seaboard.

Off and on rain but 3rd bout of heavy rain in past hour in Port Jefferson. Seems like a lit up red line on radar keeps training over my area. Gonna be some big totals from this..

Looked at the radar and saw nothing close by, looked out the window 10 minutes later and it was pouring, in downtown Bethesda. Guess that cell popped up right over me.

Look what's developing to your SW heading your way

FWIW, whether it’s more like 1997-98 or 2015-16 doesn’t really change the odds of a big NE snowstorm or two between breaks of the pacific jet IMO. Just really getting into semantics here of what more closely defines a super Nino pattern in the western hemisphere.

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