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yup, the budget for the insurance company I work for got wiped out from Helene. they were over leveraged there because that was supposed to be a “climate change haven.”

I'm expecting a mild, rainy winter like 1998 so no pressure. Heavy rain moving out with 1.6 inches, with 1.2 of that coming in about 45 minutes

2.45" for the week. Not bad.

Some more breaks in the clouds pushing south and east

Stack up those hissyfits for this winter, we're gonna need them!

It can really pour along the escarpment late evening in August when there is a slight NE flow

Exciting times ahead

Partly sunny pleasant here

Drizzle off and on all AM. Kinda sucks out but manageable.

A nice taste of Fall coming in starting tonight and especially Sunday night with lows around 50 degrees.

Impressive!

Slight and marginal risk today for 5% damaging winds and 5% hail in west TN area Tennessee is actually 99% full of marginal risk haha lol and slight risk in the far northern part of east TN just 1% https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html .

+4 would be one of the warmest winters on record here.

Idk guys. Real freaking nice today. Might be perfect.

Look like around 1.2” out of this last storm fell here. Nice soaker

Yeah, your area has been getting trained for a couple hours with lots of 2-3 inch amounts on the RainDrop app. That app runs high so cut 25% but still a lot of rain. My hissyfit above worked too as I'm finally under some good stuff! 0.4 so far

.40" from yesterday, was a gentle rain.

The fact that 1999 was the driest summer, I will always believe that if Floyd never happened, we would have had a continuous, multi-year drought from about spring 1998 through fall 2002.

Overcast 73F/DP 70F Critters are doing late season critter things...

Now did I understand correctly that developing niño summers have more severe weather?

The models have always been inaccurate. They always will be too. In order to have a perfect forecast you need two things: 1. A perfect simulation of every thermodynamic/kinematic process down to the air molecule and 2. Input data of every air molecule and its relevant properties. Now, obviously we will never hit that lofty goal. However, the same principles apply to figuring out why models have improved or stalled/declined in skill. Considering that, and this is a hard fact of reality not up for debate, here is list of soundings ended due to both budget cuts and personal loss at NOAA post doge. Below is quoted from a brookings article. Weather balloon launches were suspendedin Albany, New York, and Gray, Maine. Weather balloon launches were ended in Kotzebue, Alaska. Balloon launches were suspended in Omaha, Nebraska, and Rapid City, South Dakota. Balloon launches were cut from twice daily to once daily in Aberdeen, South Dakota; Grand Junction, Colorado; Green Bay, Wisconsin; Gaylord, Michigan; North Platte, Nebraska; and Riverton, Wyoming. Nearly half of all weather offices are currently missing 20% of their staff. The New York Times reports that some of the weather service’s departments will no longer have weather forecasters working overnight If you cut input data you cut model accuracy. To reiterate, this is not up for debate but the reality we live in. Ask yourself if those actions were done by the “other” political party what would your reaction be? It’s alright to admit that these cuts are a price you paid due to aligning with the admin on its other policies, but it’s not alright to deny the truth of the matter. Final point here. For the 2027 fiscal budget the admin wants to cut NOAA spending another 17-25%. Imagine that. Our forecasters are already overworked, our data collection crumbling, and our main flagship models falling behind peer nations; and the solution is to cut funding. Own up to your politics. Sources: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-politics-is-weakening-americas-weather-service/ https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/18/trump-cuts-ai-weather-prediction-forecasts https://silencingscience.org/actions/noaa-budget-cuts-proposed-for-fy2027/

First 10 days this month were +4.5. Since then we've been a bit BN. That ramp has been pretty flat so far.