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We are about to get clocked…

H5 pass will definitely be far to our south which is what @Terpeast has been hammering home as our ticket.

Come to papa

GFS looking better than 18z, which was already a good run

I expect this will be another decent run at the surface.

So far so good.

I mean the top is 0z and bottom is 18z. I find it hard to see this miss, just look at that lobe digging south.

0z GFS looks more like 12z than 18z with the incoming trough midweek

The height lines seemed backed a smidge further west with more vorticity in the main lobe angled west. Additionally, the ribbon of vorticity running out ahead of the lobe (paving its path) seems to be a bit more intense and catching the southern energy better. So far I am hopeful.

Would be pretty shocked if this GFS is a whiff. Said that about the ICON, though.

So worthless range. Got it

Take us home @TSSN, gonna be good

here you go. Fresh off the CTP press. Boy their distain for snow/cold is slightly obvious. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1035 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Added mention of SNSQs in the wx grids for 14-19Z Sun && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Snow accumulation /and possibly a few squalls/ expected across the western highlands Sunday. A few snow showers could even make it into eastern Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon. Wind picks up behind a broken line of snow showers/squalls. 2) Quieter wx for Mon-Tues. Warmer than normal for Tues-Wed. 3) Still a possibility for a low pressure area to develop later in the week over the Mid-Atlantic. But, many factors are in question.

Btw we are in Nam range now at 84 hours

Gfs looking good

Yup so far that piece is closer to the 12z solution.

Every hour is important bro. Everything connects

The s/w coming through the Dakotas is slightly deeper, good sign

Eventually things will turn around. Totally agree. Just don’t know when that’ll be so we should appreciate whatever opportunities we do get.

Why are we comparing the GFS runs at hour 48. There won't be a difference really until hour 90ish

NAM is insistent on snow squalls even into the immediate suburbs.

That look on the 0Z ICON was a thing of beauty at H5. But hardly anything at the surface, outside of the Mts... Not sure why.