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Why is it every time the models show a wet pattern coming up it collapses a week before it starts, Will the niño ever kick in? Or is this nw dominated pattern the new normal?

Punting from September to October. There were signs that September was going to turn wet but over the course of this week the modeling for it completely collapsed.

Looks like a general 1.75-2.25 inches of rain IMBY last night based on the NWS data.

Wouldn't shock me if ensuing administration applies referendums, if not immediately repeals when and where legislative rules allow, many of the changes that have been making headlines during this ... quirk of history BS that seems like an infinitely long 4 years in an asylum run by inmates

I think the easiest answer is the marine heat wave off japan. +5-8c anoms are going to have an effect there. But once the NH cools, that will get chipped away slowly but surely. Like it did the last couple of years, it may take a few months but we have time

It has been two weeks since our last rain. We could use a soaker.

Oh are we really doing this? Ok, let’s split hairs. In another post, I said Sept-Nov is when we should see effects. So what is “mid-fall”? Fall is SON, Winter is DJF. In the middle of SON is October. Where’s the can kick?

Right...weakening correlation due to the the ambient warmth washing it out, which is why it's facing more hemispheric competion.

Like I just said, competing forces....it's why 2023 had MC tendencies. Last season wasn't as favorable as 1995....you keep acting as though CC was the only difference. It wasn't.

-- Changed Discussion -- 1) Late summer warmth to end August and start September with potential severe weather and heavy rain threats early next week -- End Changed Discussion -- && .DISCUSSION... -- Changed Discussion -- IR satellite trends show fog coverage expanding in the western and central valleys where skies have cleared for the most part. Can`t rule out a stray shower/t-storm southeast of I-81 today, but overall conditions will be trending drier/less humid through Saturday. Noticeable cooler tonight with more locally dense valley fog into early Saturday morning. -------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 1: Late summer warmth to end August and start September with potential bouts of severe weather and heavy rain early next week Large scale pattern to close out August and kickoff September will feature an expansive sprawling upper ridge centered from the southern Plains into the Southeast U.S. Residing on the northeastern periphery of the upper high in CPA will open the door for returning late summer heat/humidity along with the potential for episodic bouts of severe weather/heavy rain in a ring of fire type pattern. WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rain Monday 8/31 and Tuesday 9/1 across northern PA. This limited predictability flow regime offers reduced confidence in the precip department, but does send a strong warm signal for temperatures trending above the historical average as the 9th month of 2026 gets underway. -- End Changed Discussion --

FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane.

LFG.

Was EasternUSWX renamed to American weather to distract from the winter of 2009? Just a thought...

Looks like the government deregulated the transgenic american chestnut. I initially supported the original Darling 58 trees, but the whole thing became a fiasco with a mix up. These are Darling 54 trees now and they don’t have the vigor the D58 or regular trees had. https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/program-update/usda-deregulates-american-chestnut-engineered-enhanced-blight-tolerance

According to the following link, NOAA has switched to RONI as its official way of reporting ENSO effective 2/1/2026 and not just for weak ENSO despite them still maintaining the ONI dataset: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

You are talking local patterns and nuances more than the actual strength of the event. The last event in 2023-2024 jumped the planet to a new higher global temperature baseline with a relatively weaker RONI. The Nino ridge was among the strongest on record with the warmest winter in record for the CONUS and much of North America. It’s debatable whether the weaker Aleutian low was a function of RONI or just a symptom of weaker upper lows in general over the years with both La Ninas and El Niños. Notice this past winter with a weak La Niña configuration closest to 1995-1996 the ridge overpowered the pattern with smaller 500 mb lows.

it's struggling to burn off the morning misery mist here in the valley

It's deeper than that ... It actually is an attempt to atone for the weakening correlation that's been observed in climate recency. Not wanting to get into a whole pedantic tl:dr but correlations exists between two points because there is a physical relationship between them. In the context of ENSO, as the whole planet's been warming outside the ENSO girdle with accelerating d(C), the gradient is shallowing. That shallowing gradient means the (particularly warm ) ENSO phases are not coupling to the hemisphere(s) outside the <= subtropical regions as deeply. Climate Prediction Center says it right in their definition, "..RONI is one measure of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods..." RONI is an attempt to tighten the correlation back up by accounting for the whole systemic warming, which offsets the climate bases of ENSO alone. So, using the RONI outlook should ( in principle ) show better impact/effectivity scoring. Heh, it's why Ray and I and others are keenly interested in this espoused ensuing super NINO - it's the best opportunity to date to test that. Really ... all of this is necessary because the climate change has out paced the usefulness of using a static climate inference to gauge the intensity of warm(cool) ENSO.

Agree Dec probably sucks.

Very true - Also San Diego is much cooler in July and August then NYC metro ContextClimate - scroll to different stations to compare

For anyone wondering about the source here...great tool: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

Low of 64 with .12" of rain, as most of the action dodged me yesterday. I'll need to get a mow in after work today. Great weather for opening night of high school football. Might be a campfire night. Onward.