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  2. jaxjagman
    NINO looks still strong to me,you even see another strong WWB into Sept with hardly any EWB,start seeing EWB should be the first sign the Walker Circulation is breaking down,until ten
  3. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    https://northtrustpharm.com/# NorthTrust Pharm
  4. GaWx
    0Z UKMET delays transition to a TD for 4 days vs the 12Z run but still has it taking a similar path and gets to a TS quickly as it moves WNW a little NE of the Bahamas: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 20.3N 67.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 31.08.2026 132 21.0N 68.5W 1011 32 0000UTC 01.09.2026 144 22.4N 70.3W 1009 38 1200UTC 01.09.2026 156 23.0N 71.7W 1006 43 0000UTC 02.09.2026 168 24.1N 73.4W 1002 39
  5. Weather_or_Not
    Note the lack of actual crisp air (SUB 55 DEWS) on this chart. 2025 had 290 hours under 55 DP (3rd best), 2026 has 14 hrs (all time worst). Here's hoping Saturday brings us our first crisp day (low 50s dew) of August - fingers crossed!
  6. jaxjagman
    That not true to some extent,while the 82-83 strong NINO showed a -PDO into srping it went positive into summer.That 82-83 winter was quite uniques alone which had the help of a EQBO and not a WQBO this year
  7. GaWx
    I don’t recall ever hearing/reading even one bad word about Dolly. Never! How many public figures can you say that about in our lifetimes?
  8. Today
  9. GaWx
    I’ve rarely if ever heard/read one bad word about Dolly. Never! How many public figures can you say that about? Yes, one part of her anatomy was often made fun of, but that seemed to be mainly in good fun even if sometimes coming off as rude and she seemed to take it well with great responses.
  10. JerseyWx
    Can you show me which stations in our sub-forum that is true for? This has not been an extremely hot summer, those surges of heat we had were short lived. This was a typical summer for the metro that featured warm and humid days and a stormy pattern starting after the 4th. It's interesting because if we had the inverse of this summer pattern happen in the winter (some extremely cold days mixed in with mostly average/warmer ones), you wouldn't have people going around saying that it's an icebox record cold winter.
  11. EasternLI
    Yeah. You would expect to see some recurving typhoons instead of that. Key part of the puzzle IMO. Which we are still waiting for...
  12. LakePaste25
    +PDO tends to be more indicative that the Pacific was in more of a nino state during the past 5-10 years and vice versa so that makes sense. Weak ENSO is going to have high variability.
  13. John1122
    Looks like the Nino flatlined a little more than expected the last week or two. It's actually weakening considerably in 3-4. It may not quite peak as high as predicted. Regarding the PDO. Nino winters had positive PDO in something like 80 percent of moderate to strong ninos. 2023-24 was the only -pdo winter for one of them in the last 75 years.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    In some months the PDO correlates higher with US Temperature than ENSO. In a few months it actually scores higher than the PNA!
  15. LakePaste25
    If this event doesn’t strongly couple then we need to start making PDO threads rather than ENSO threads.
  16. jaxjagman
    I agree with you,it dont seem like when the monthly updates you should see much change with a typhoon going into East China the next couple days.Look at how warm those SST's are east Japan into the Pac.Its rare in a strong NINO to even witness this
  17. EasternLI
    Disagree that the odds are nearly zero. I do agree that the sheer magnitude of this el nino prevails. And I believe this autumn will do major work on that. However I also believe it is a true battle between the two. As the upper air pattern driving said PDO are fighting against it. PDO after all is a reflection of a predominant 500mb pattern. It takes effort to transform that as research shows. A major driver of this is known to be aleutian low variability. So it will be fascinating how that shakes out. The runaway strengthening on pause currently could be a little clue towards that. Or maybe not, but I would not be overly confident in either, and I am not.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    October 2024 PDO hit a 150-year low. Then in July 2025 it beat that, going lower. Now relative to ENSO it's probably just as impressive as Oct 2024 and July 2025. Don't think you can call a peak in the cold phase yet.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    This will couple more than 2024 at the height of the cold phase.
  20. Prismshine Productions
    Man I am moving near a cliff don't do this to me Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  21. ensonerd1233e343
    thanks
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_3mon_tcc.html
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Something to consider as models show nearly a 6000dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands in 4-5 days, here are the last 3 El Nino Winters:
  24. Boston Bulldog
    Yeah the GFS short to medium term backoff was expected, though the later window for recovery and potential intensification north of the islands is real. Future Dolly has the cards stacked against it in terms of making it to that pocket however. The shear is very real, as well as decreasing RH. Basin tenor has been very hostile this year, it just seems so much more likely that this fragile system will dissipate with a whimper. Some classic survivor bias within ensemble intensity forecasts down the line, and even that has been reduced as we've seen downtrending across the board today. Most AI ensemble members don't even show a TC anymore!
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Everyone falls into the analog trap. 23-24 didn't couple and it peaked at +2.0c Here are the last 3 El Nino Winters:
  26. jaxjagman
    PDO next update shouldnt change much with a typhoon headed into east China the next couple days.Maybe this winter will have its own analogs,but i wouldn't rely on a +PDO,probably wont happen ATM,thats rare in a strong NINO those SSTS east of Japan,lets go skiing in West Japan this winter?Very unique pattern regardless
  27. ineedsnow
    click around here and you can find the 1,000 ensemble run https://polarwx.com/tropical/#al962026/super also weathernerds.org is good
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