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Models seem to want to hold off on storms until this evening around dark. The slight risk area includes most of the area. Time is ticking on thunderstorm season. I'd like to get a good lighting show. It's been super lame in the lighting department imby.

The O's are 3 under .500, now watch they win today and lose the next 4 or 5 after in a row.

it's worth looking at multiple sources for forecasts and information comparing data makes it easier to figure out what's likely, what's possible, and what's BS

Man, the latest CFS is how you watch 'ole man winter swallow a pistol.....brutal combination of east-based El Nino overlaid onto residual MC regime....look familiar? It should-

At least the start of September will show some similarity to 2023 and 2015. But the forecast is for a stronger Southeast ridge this time. Matches the summer theme of stronger mid-latitude 500 mb ridging than past developing super El Ninos.

Lala is still rather stunning as she undergoes transition

Low of 68 with .01" of rain. Curious to see how things set up today.

If ever there were a season to be leery of disregarding ENSO in favor of CC-oriented conceptualizations, it's this one.

The cluster missed me to my west and north. I have heard constant distant thunder for an hour. Actually, a little tail formed and I should get a brief downpour

Started with heavy rain around 7:45 while we waited for the bus; kids 1st day back. Still going now with frequent lightening and thunder. No wind.

HA ... the most "nuanced" understanding of ENSO is actually that its influence may be dwindling as an agency over winter patterns - that's what the very necessary evolution of RONI is all about. Which is all ironic because that dwindle affects the "general" application - or should. What I mean by that, if RONI and CC are implicating less effective factorization, then logically the nuances go out with the bath water. I'm also suspecting a hesitation if not reticence to adapt to these fundamentals of changing factor-ability wrt the various input channels. Part of that may be a state of the art needing to go up the learning curve .. but it also seems that there are those that have sort of 'institutionalized' a standard canvas upon which to draw long lead outlooks; if having to acquiesce to a notion that their canvas is thus torn/tearing, they're losing their ability to paint - the artistry suffers. Some ego too

Looks like post 10th back to normal temps. Doesn’t seem too cool, maybe a tad BN for a day or two.

Looking at the orientation of the vortex up north and the slope of the height field out west, I would be willing to hedge "white over wet", especially for the interior, in this map VERBATIM. IMHO, while it isn't a cold pattern with that raging PAC jet, what cold is available would be streamlined into our quadrant of the country. Like Will said, if that GOA low ever found it's way 1000 miles west, then the sky would be the limit...but I don't anticipate that.

Dry for some, wet for most. I've had so much rain since the 4th of July that I have had to mow every 5 or 6 days, and every time I need to scrap grass from my lawnmower deck.

Getting weather from app??

AFTER the first week of September. I give it a cursory glance as I do the contributors on this site as far as the winter outlook goes....but personally, I'm not fond of his presentation.... has this way of going about it where as he never actually commits himself to anything, and I think his interpretation of ENSO leaves a great deal to be desired. He clings to these archaic, over simplified generalizations, such as "winter will rock if ENSO weakens quickly"...his understanding of ENSO is quite crude and not nuanced enough. It's apparent that he doesn't have a firm grasp of local climo when viewing his storm maps for the region.

Should be a nice breezy day in the upper 60's w/ lows tonight in the low 40's. Not much rain materialized over the past several days, It's pretty dry. I've had a hummingbird feeding frenzy for about 2-3 weeks then seemingly overnight they're gone. I'll leave the feeders up another week or two for stragglers. Sure sign that summer is over in the northland.

That's +PNA/-NAO...don't mistake the blue shading out west in association with an immense PAC jet as RNA....look at the height lines..see how they have a gentle WNW - ESE slope? That is a subtle +PNA.

I just know how you closely follow all of DT stuff

This first week of September?

Not him...you are obsessed with DT. Joe Karnik

Tell Dick Tolleris he is incorrect

Just waiting to see how much rain we get today. Currently 62 degrees River is still a mess.