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There is a connection; i spent a large part of growing up in Plano- i had mentioned this in a earlier post about N Texas being a good place to monitor with regards to what happens during the initial part of the storm

NAM, which the naysayers cling to for mid level warming, popped the secondary earlier and further SE. this ticked the mixing south. Great run of the NAM. the RGEM was less snowy due to a weird QPF min around the city. The ICON has been wildly inconsistent. so far I like the 12z suite

Icon

MPM's stress level heading North as QPF trends South?

Yeah it didn't change much other than got drier so looks like less snow. Nam got wetter.

Just comparing surface maps...GFS basically the same so far

Yeah both sides of the argument are maybe meeting in the middle, the GFS "winning" at this point is not really like what it would be like if it "won" with one of its earlier runs, for sure. It would just give its depiction some more credence even if it was over-committed.

23.4 for the low this morning. Currently 36.3/12.9 at 10:35 am.

Yeah. Not happy about the totals being cut. But again. The Detroit area has 4-7" of packed powder base, so add several inches and more powdery snowbanks...deep deep winter.

Take us home @stormtracker

People have short memories

slightly juicer out front at 24...no major changes

This. Lord is it so bad sometimes.

Compare RGEM from 6z, definitely improved with the primary speed and location. Can't take the snow map or mix timing at this long range.

Going to be fun to watch how far north the mixing issues occur

Maybe this squall line can stay together as it heads south and we get brief heavy squall later this afternoon

This should be quite different for ERCOT. 2021 the main issue was freeze offs in the Permian. That won’t be the case for size this time

Reggie QPF output looks more in line with what you would expect from a SWFE. Doesn't have the steroids look of some of the other guidance.

1/23 12z GFS

I don't take the ICON very seriously but the cutoff is pretty insane, 8 inches southern NYC, 20 inches at the Bronx/Westchester border.

Nope. That isn’t the reason. .

Yep. Start there. 12” is baseline for majority across the 3 southern New England states.

New GFS running now.

Way Last 3 runs

Add the RRFS to the models that have improved at 12z. It shifted the thermals and surface features south. Looks like a great run for most of our forum. And it's not quite over here with some light wraparound stuff still to move through.