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light rain

Recent Josh update on Polo on a farm he was staying at on Baja: includes a nice video of the peak as well as aftermath, which shows that people/farm animals weren’t injured despite significant damage to the farm. The main house he was staying in handled it well though:

Off and on drizzle all AM

WB 12Z models for Sunday.

Sun was forecasted, but as usual a busted forecast. Has happened all year.

the problem with orchestrating life behaviors around traditional points of views and perspectives/belief systems is when objective evidence, and math, prove that the old traditional methods are harmful - yet, they remain unwavering.

Which was a record Nino…signs of things to come. Bad things.

office normies loving the early fall weather

I actually saw the sun for 30 minutes before the clouds moved back in

Perhaps that is why he enjoyed a September torch??

After having finally gotten back to slightly AN since late Aug (that was 1st time since way back in early May), note the recent drop and how cold it was yesterday N of 80N: 2026 having it this cold N of 80N on Sep 28th is per this site technically the coldest this early in the season in 30 years, quite notable! I say “technically” though because it only barely beat 2011, 2004, and 2000. Regardless, the most interesting comparison is to 2012-25, which were all much warmer/AN on Sep 28th: 1958-2002 mean: -11C 26: -13C 25: -7C 24: -9C 23: -8C 22: -7C 21: -8C 20: -5C 19: -5C 18: -5C 17: -8C 16: -7C 15: -8C 14: -7C 13: -9C 12: -9C 2012-25 mean: -7C So, regarding Sep 28th, 2026 is: 1. 4-8C colder than every year since 2012 2. 6C colder than the mean of 2012-2025 Yes, I’m mainly only talking in this post about a point in time and 80N+ is a small area in relation to the N hemisphere (only 1.5%). But it is a very important 1.5% due to Arctic ice. Also, that area is just coming off the coldest late May-early Aug back to 1958 by a good margin, implying the possibility that this overall cooling up there will have legs. I’ll keep following this to see if there’s cooling trend follow-through up there going ahead as this is quite interesting, especially due to its implications on Arctic ice since GW had lead to the greatest warming by a good margin in the Arctic. Is it possible that the massive warming up there is done at least for awhile? Could there be a new cycle that’s just started? @Stormchaserchuck1@bluewave@Wild Weather Monger

Since Thursday is October I'll just put this here Might take a bit to climb on Thursday but we'll definitely see lower 80's within the region. Some of the typical torch spots would have a shot for mid 80's but the warmest llvl temps may get in a bit too late. We probably see a big regional temp spike though between 2-4 PM

storm is still being blocked from moving fast enough away from us because of the strong blocking the last few days so it is weakening and spinning itself out more or less - beginning to wonder if the clouds will still be lingering tomorrow especially in the northern and eastern areas of the region - this satellite image is not encouraging - this will have an effect on high temps

Again, completely different climate on the east coast vs Great Lakes. The least days with measurable snow on record at Detroit was in 1889-90, when just 15 days recorded measurable snow. But thats still 15 days where snowfall was measured. Even Detroit and Boston, which average near identical snowfall, are completely different climates, but I know further south in NYC its more extreme. All that said, I don't see how you could ever expect a snowless winter in NYC without everything going completely wrong, especially in a wet pattern. I mean, easily rain would dominate over snow. But snowless would be an extraordinary feat.

Sums up winter pretty well here!!!

4.97"

remember when we would get cool dry air behind a noreaster

The seasonal forecast models continue to underestimate the mid-latitude 500mb ridging pattern leading to this persistent -PDO.

Looks like maybe a 1/2" of rain at most on tap today. Take whatever we can get. N WI is real dry with D3-4 conditions.

Nauset Beach on Saturday afternoon.

Next 7 days per WPC. About as wet a forecast as you will see over such a large area.