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You well need a better push S from that ULL in AE Canada or it just acts as a low in the lakes type deal. If you want some morale boost here is end of euro Ai, I’d take this .

I’ll lock it in

I ended up nailing that stretch after the cold-scare. My PNA call for the month is more precarious, though...we'll see. I would have made the same call again given the data at my disposal last fall.

Same here, except that most of the additional area was well away from the Northeast.

I'd love to hear you get out of this one....

Always something....

Would take him on the Browns in a heartbeat

10"-20" in 14 days is a lot. It's above the annual rainfall of Colorado every state other than California and North Dakota has drought.

Happy hour adds some hopium

Thanks for the assist

In fact, this 18z GFS run came in with a trough deep enough to get it done for the first time in this approach, but ... the wave spacing of the individual S/W's are interfering.

I see what you did there lololol

I have a dad-bod...but all of my labwork and BP are pristine at 45 years of age. Secret is weight training.

Heh... pistol to head I'm more inclined to suggest the 13-16th based upon science of mass field modulation and correction ... The period after that isn't 'bad' per se, but honestly... we slip the +PNA and then see a new pattern signal right on it's heals that is an abrupt blossoming of a bona fide negative EPO ( not that weird N. Pac thing last month) ... I'm just referring to the actual spatial construct of the hemisphere in the deeper ranged ens system, all three agreeing in principle. The problem with that is, we could observe a seesaw in the pattern just the same ... a flip back "warm" ( ish ) in the E. There's a spatial synoptic argument for it. It shows up statistically/climatology on negative EPOs where a fair number of them actually drop heights in the W immediately downstream of the Alaskan sector ridge. A variation that wouldn't likely be sussed out at this range necessarily. I actually think in the winter where we have established cold on this side of the hemisphere, the flow rate will encourage lengthening L/W lengths ...that might offset the tucked west scenario, too. So some help perhaps That all said, I don't see that as encouraging as this rather powerful looking +PNA burst that is happening in the foreground ... It starts ramping earlier actually... late this week, and maxes around or just prior to the 15th... Usually it is along or near the apex, we engender a bomb or a series with aggregate energy. The operationals have a kind of 'correction vector' that is pointed toward amplitude when there is such a loud signal, yet they are lacking. This signal predates their typical extended stochastic bs.

Yeah I can just click a few buttons. But I’m not going to.

Still have to watch mid month closely if these can somehow phase.

Is there anyway you can delete or move all that shit out of the thread and enforce keeping it out ?

I jumped off the cliff, crashed out, and landed in nothing but hopium below. This hobby won’t let you go that easily

I wonder what month Paul Revere used to install.

If you want a period to watch for a storm. The Period ~15th is def. worth keeping an eye on... Possibly a big +PNA phase shift, well advertised actually, with potential for some southern energy running out during that time. Could end up as nothing. Anything could. But when I see that kind of framework, I think you watch that every time.

Last year Jan’96 repeat was modeled 6 days out and I don’t even think it we got a fine mist in the end. We haven't had a shortage of modeled snow storms and blockbusters recently - just a shortage, nay outright dearth, of storm verifications. We can complain and bitter about these recent winters, sure, but worse, the models. maybe its a good thing we don’t have an OP blizzard rn with an apparent ‘good’ pattern model presenting on ensembles.

Please don't hire someone who doesn't go for it on 4th and 1

tomlin to Balt Harbaugh to Steelers

Basically, the 18z GFS traps a piece of the TPV under HL blocking. It just sits and spins while locked over central Canada. This is what ensembles might not be able to see. It kind of looks like LR ensembles w/ a SER. But...that SER is minor as it is getting lifted into place by the strong BN heights over Canada. The HUGE plus on this run....storm track is right over our forum area w/ repetitive winter events.

It snowed on my son’s birth date.