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A general 0.50" around the TH area yesterday. More on the way later today.

Bottom line….big things can happen in a super Nino too. 2016 had a 3 footer in the mid Atlantic, and also a record breaking cold snap on Valentine’s Day weekend. Overall the winter wasn’t good for most. But if I can get a 30-36” blizzard…and a record breaking cold snap…sign me up.

Throwback to Melissa's intense eye

The lack of meaningful cold air / snowcover globally thus far, and even what's projected heading into early November, is not exactly a great signal for a sustained witner pattern any time soon. That being said, things can certainly flip on a dime, and that doesn't preclude intermittent cold shots or even snowfall opportunities. BTW, the SSWE / Polar Vortex hype every season by certain mets is becoming some real shit.

For all you weirdos who want a rainy, dreary fall, the 06z GFS is for you.

I don't blame you for that change, and frankly my argument doesn't rely on the notion that people are good. I wish they were, but there are more than enough counterexamples to make it an unrealistic claim. My argument is a one which places the onus of our behavior onto the competitive and exploitative mode of production society operates under. No wonder people are nasty when we are told that other people succeeding is to our disadvantage, or that more people means less to go around. It creates the interactions motivated by hate you talk of. So yes, I think its a valid claim to say that there are people who want to hurt others and are what we can categorize as morally wrong people. However, I think it's fine to add a consonant claim which emphasizes that behavior is a product of the greater system society has setup. We are all adaptive to the environment were in, and it happens our environment is one which favors hate over care. My real claim, and goal, is arguing that our system doesn't need to be that way and there are alternatives. I know that such a change is one which I won't even see the start of, but I also believe its folly to think capitalism will somehow exist for all time forever into the future. I think our situation is analogous to asking a peasant in 13th century Europe if feudalism will last forever. To them it may seem so, but that is because they are blinded by their historical moment. As for how this translates to day-to-day interactions I'm not really sure. Extend empathy towards others, but if they're "bad" people then they also deserve to be called out on their behavior. Honestly, what would your advice be to someone who was in your place 30 years ago?

One period in one month does not make a winter. You'll see ppl just focus on those select periods they got right, when what matters is the overall avg for the entire winter! "97-98 had a November winter event." Ok....many Novs do, your point? Dec 23, 1997 there was a surprise 1-2 footer in SNE. A winter event. Did that change anything in the mean for temp in the CONUS overall that winter? No. I had 42,6" that winter in Woburn. That's 15" below avg. I did have 6.4" in Nov which is above avg. But again, slicing and ice down short periods is cherry-picking. For Woburn,for the 4 very strong El Nino prior, one was close to avg snowfall (1982-83), and the other three below. That does not make a "big" winter in the @CoastalWx context!

Here we go. Massive extratropical WWB in the NH due to the N Pac cyclone. This will help flip the -PDO, and it’s why I say it’s a lagging indicator of ENSO, because the tropical coupling comes first, then the NHem coupling followed by the PDO.

I sounded exactly like you 30 years ago so it would be hypocritical of me to criticize your view. All I’ll say is let’s see if you feel the same way after banging your head into the same wall for 30 more years! Also, living where I do (there are some wonderful things of where I live and some of the people are nice) for the last 20 years has been eye opening. I’ve sat in the room at town hall meetings with people who most definitely wanted to hurt people. They were 100% motivated by hate. When some in town kept changing local ordinances to harass the local Hispanic population it wasn’t out of love. When I got into a fight with some loser chud at Walmart who was calling the Muslim cashier a “sand Nger” you think that was because he just wanted to make the most of his one spin? The contractor working on my deck who told me the best part of living her is there are no black people. Sure that was out of love. These clowns talk to me like I am one of them because of where I live and what I look like. I know exactly how evil many of the people around me are because they openly tell me. Sorry 20 years of that’s changed my opinion of the goodness of humanity.

Ehh. Not east of the city or anywhere near a coast.

Here are the CPC temp forecasts for winters 2013-14 to 2024-25 (left) and on the right as to what actually happened. This is not targeting CPC here, just showing how long-range forecasts are generally not good. There is a distinct warm bias for the winter forecasts in this particular case set.

who's ready for THIS?

Oh boy....

38.3 this morning

he's just salty 'cause the foliage this year has been great almost everywhere, except for the dullness for The Oaks at Tolland I'd be salty too if the foliage around me was meh and everyone else was enjoying a great season

If we do see a cold shot from this disruption, it’s likely to be brief. I mentioned that in the winter thread here. But that’s no different than other strong Ninos. 97-98 had a November winter event.

Also, regarding my previous post, when El Nino is this strong, mild air *rules* across most of the Lower 48 for most of the winter. The polar vortex is secondary. All other very strong El Ninos have had very mild conditions for the winter in the Lower 48. The only cold air shots, and they are not too intense and are brief, are in the Northeast. Why not just say that b/c you hare wx history and analogs to support your fcst. That is the most logical course and has a virtually 100% success rate given past event. Any more is just pure speculation and content to just draw out talk about the wx b/c it gets the ratings.

Min 25.1° Airport mins