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  2. Typhoon Tip
    yeah... no one's been told before that the NAM has a N-W biases beyond 24 hours... heh
  3. weatherwiz
    These are always tough because it depends on exactly where the front stalls and where the low pressure tracks. I've felt the past few days the GFS may be a bit too aggressive with Saturday...at least with northwest extent of the heavier rain. We'll probably see some showers around though given weak lift
  4. Snowlover11
    Congrats NYC, LI
  5. Kmlwx
    Qdoba > Chipotle
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I get it's too early to definitely say whether that will chance by the time that the winter season ensues, but the mid latitude ground truth relative to the development of past major El Nio events dictates that this definitely remains a work on progress.
  7. mahantango#1
    Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 1214 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 PAZ012-041-042-045-046-049>053-057>059-065-066-210000- /O.EXB.KCTP.FA.A.0013.000000T0000Z-260821T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Clinton-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Lock Haven, Shamokin, Renovo, Williamsport, Selinsgrove, Harrisburg, Danville, Pottsville, Hershey, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Sunbury, York, Lebanon, Trout Run, Lewisburg, Laporte, and Lancaster 1214 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Columbia, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Montour, Northern Clinton, Northern Lycoming, Northumberland, Schuylkill, Snyder, Southern Clinton, Southern Lycoming, Sullivan, Union and York. * WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Periods of heavy rain are expected this afternoon through the evening. Rainfall amounts up to 3 inches are possible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
  8. Brian5671
    New GFS keeps most of it south of all of us Saturday
  9. donsutherland1
    Hopefully, the guidance will be accurate and the heaviest rains will avoid your area and others that have recently experienced flooding.
  10. Typhoon Tip
    Need the return of hemispheric seasonal gradient increase - the triggered machinery response ( wave spacing and speeds and jet location biases ..et all) will be conducted by the new maestro so to speak. Prior to that, all we have is WWBs and vague SS stressing differentiating SST pattern/morphology, happening amid a generic summer hemisphere that remains unresponsive. The gradient and the response/forcing of planetary wave modes come hand in hand
  11. ravensrule
    Are you at Chipotle?
  12. MANDA
    Feeling FAIRLY confident that my area of NW NJ will escape the heaviest event totals. Guidance has been targeting mainly along and east of I95 for max totals. Will have to watch radar over the next several hours. Key for NW NJ is where downstream convection starts to "ignite". Hopefully it will be near or east of BWI/PHL and then lift and/or train NE leaving NW NJ with just more frontal related rainfall but still with heavy downpours. Can deal with 1 or 2" out this way but 3-5" totals not good for this area. Still very wet out my way. Sitting at 5.5" for August to date here.
  13. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  14. A-L-E-K
    What a time to be alive
  15. weatherwiz
    Looks like Hawaii dodging a bullet with Two-C
  16. donsutherland1
    The August 20, 2026 12z HREF:
  17. RedSky
    Drought buster incoming
  18. weatherwiz
    Very tough forecast. Definitely better potential for more in the way of consistent rain eastern CT and points east, particularly on Saturday. Sunday I don't think is a rain all day but there could be some room for some strong storms and downpours in the afternoon if we destabilize enough. Saturday could be like EOR type ordeal and Sunday WOR
  19. Chrisrotary12
    We’re #1. We’re #1. We’re #1!
  20. Kmlwx
    Crapvection around now
  21. Ginx snewx
    Shit weather incoming. Damn it. Hopefully doesn't rain all weekend.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    It seems to me like we are establishing a modest cool ENSO baseline of sorts due to the increased warmth pooling in the western Pacific, however, for that same reason the frequency of powerful El Nino events is also increasing as part or the overall redistribution oriented efforts to maintain the global heat budget.....ie more frequent La Nina, but weaker...less frequent El Nino, but more powerful ones.
  23. frd
    A refresher on the way.
  24. Stormpc
    I've had lots of rain in Currituck NC the past few weeks. Mowed yesterday afternoon but ground still saturated. However, it doesn't take much for my particular location to stay wet for a long time since I'm only about 4 ft above sea level. Looking at another soaking the next 3 days.
  25. A-L-E-K
    hi-res baby canuck been having a summer
  26. A-L-E-K
    secret on our wonderful region very much out these days
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