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Nothing on radar but decent snow shower breaking out.

To be fair, I'm pretty sure the NAM got it right for the wrong reasons. The prevailing consensus on what I hear is that the low level cold air was so dense that it actually allowed refreeze just before it hit the I saw several reports of tall trees with ZR accumulation at the top and then it was just converted to sleet at the ground. The NAM showed a deeper cold wedge and that was not quite what happened. Now, should that negate what took place and it's forecast? Honestly I'm not sure. But it still didn't quite nail it I don't think.

Longer range of the RGEM but a better look than the ICON at 500 84H

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm-model-inputs

GOOFUS time

Am I wrong? A full hit in this set-up would be feet

GFS is off and running. Good luck everyone

Henry's psychedelic Weather.

RGEM was still potent with the PV lobe, but was more suppressed up here in advance.

Biggest issue I see is the lack of a return flow out of the gulf ahead of this system. Not really sure a north trend of the ull will accomplish much aside from being a clean clipper unless we get some kind of a norlun trough involved. The best runs were mostly throwing moisture back from the Atlantic…which would be awesome but basically requires bombogenesis.

Overall the ICON-EPS moves east and looks suppressed, although there are some definite tucks in there too. Hopefully the GFS up next doesn’t nod to the Germans.

I mean... Blind folding a bed ridden hamster and asking them in English to step on what they think will happen probably has the same statistical probabilities of verifying. (I jest. Kinda).

Agree with all on this. It’s really the more disorganized lake effect/lake enhancement scenarios that we really cash in, these single intense lake effect band scenarios take a lot of luck on this side of the lake. Low expectations but high ceiling for sure.

Yeah, Good place to start, Can always adjust up if need be.

NAM was great with profiles on the last storm. Only one that showed us with sleet through the duration of the storm - just missed the 8 hour dry slot over the Upstate - but do we really need a model to tell us that? Kind of a given these days in the Upstate.

ICON is a big miss for everyone except extreme SEVA. Not so good trends so far in the 12z suite

Another fun experiment is to throw a boiling cup of water into dry, frigid air. An amazing physical effect occurs. It turns into a fog of "snow," bypassing the solid state of water (ice).

Matthew Cappucci is on board

Hit the rad pit jackpot this morning with -23, coldest since Jan. 2022. Temp wiggled between zero and -4 last evening with a very thin cloud layer. That cloud must've disappeared before midnight, and with fresh deep snow, dry air and no wind, the temp plunged nearly 20° between 11 PM and 7 AM.

Yep that's how you get that second moisture push from the coastal. Great outcome.

Yes that one, but others as well. I guess if upper air pattern is only criteria it’s using it makes some sense but the only two on the list that had the southern displacement of the PV and Arctic high deep into the south central states were Feb 1989 and Jan 1996. If you use those as criteria along with upper air patterns opens up a bunch of other events that were overall more similar. Admittedly I’m a rank amateur with little meteorological knowledge.

1-2’ easily

Helluva block

Is that even possible with were it closed off? Seems weird to me.

Use the NAM for profiles, not precip output. Profiles won’t be an issue in this storm tho.