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I just sits there with the firehose turned on over Arkansas and West Tennessee, up the Ohio River valley pumping in warm air and moisture. Like 3-4 days of heavy rain with zero movement eastward because there's a Bermuda high that would make summer Bermuda high's jealous. Even with a massive west coast ridge, and major blocking over Greenland/Davis Straits, nothing moves at all.

The Euro has a LP that moves from Colorado, southwest towards So Cal and then it just sit there over the Southwest.

Nothing burger from the 0z Euro. I have read some conversations that the MJO rolls into phase 6 right as the EPO forms. We may be seeing some of that. The Euro at 500 is still better than 12z though IMO. See u at 12z tomorrow.

This winter has been mixed. Low snow but plenty of cold. Roads and walkways are dry now save for the odd ice patch and small snow pile. Tomorrow night will mess that up. I’m ready for a mild stretch unless we can manufacture some snow that’s significant.

Oh well. Setting an alarm for 3:30am tonight. Probably in vain. But a weenie’s gotta do what a weenie’s gotta do!

Actually I’m not frustrated here after the 8.5” dump back on Friday. So I’m frustration free.

Gawx like so many in here have been all over the data of temps trending colder.

Blackwater will be fine regardless of snow depth. I've been up there w 2-3 ft of snow depth and while the roads can be snow packed, they are drivable. There will be no driving access to dolly sods. The FS roads that provide direct access are closed in the winter. You may want to look into going to whitegrass ski area and paying their small day use fee for hiking and snowshoeing. You can hike up above 4000ft and when you're done, get a hot meal at their hut at the base.

Not necessarily. Wintery but frustration potential abounds. LOL

A wintry non frustrating January then.

Nice looks and decent agreement in general with cold placement and vastness of the airmass.

GFS showing a more active pattern late next week. Something to watch.

So far, this winter has been "wintery", just in a somewhat frustrating manner. I expect a decent January.

I know. Hence "fantasy" snow.

Wait...how? Lol

The GFS AI has an incredible cold bias lol. It's a weenie's dream model.

GfsAI has another light to moderate fantasy snow near the end of the run.

Sitting in Knoxville… The 0z AIGFS is definitely quick with the EPO ridge as it installs it around the 8th, and the trough begins to kick eastward at that time. Very cold model and the 0z GFS has basically joined it. John covers all of that nicely above.

They'll build back up...giving time for the SE Ridge to reform of course.

Ridge in Greenland…Alaska and dc lol

Just under an inch here.

By the time the se ridge is beat down…the country would be depleted of storms

I am also noticing at tendency on the 0z GFS to include split flow with the -EPO.

I can’t resist this all timer… ⏱️

The 0z GFS loses the feedback over Baja and looks a lot like the 18z AIGFS. Let’s see how the rest of 0z goes, but they are trending colder as John has already noted with the AIGFS.