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Two weeks before the 93’ blizzard, an F3 tracked through Oak Ridge, Powell, to Halls. Strongest tornado on record for Knox Co. .

Lmao did this storm thread even survive one model run?

CLE only reported 1.3" yesterday. Seems like that area specifically always comes in with the lowest totals. Looking at the PNS reports areas right around there reported more.

Picked up 0.5" on the back end last night. We'll see what friday brings.

Looks like we are going to hit phase 8 again. So much for getting stuck in phases 4,5,6 due to the warm pool in the western pacific. Reasons to be optimistic: Warm pool causing repeated 4,5,6 seams to have stopped. Clippers being extinct no longer the case. SE ridge always linking with the MJO not always occurring. SE ridge being an unstoppable force is no longer the case. Next up - fast flow.

6z GEFS suggests 1-2" for a good chunk of the area for "my" storm.

Most winters have a January thaw. This mild pattern will be 10 to 15 days. Colder than average starting the 18th.

They stopped the chemtrails.

Watch the magic act continue to unfold...the incredible disappearing RNA...vanishing right before our eyes faster than a medium range SNE snow-threat.

Everything looks awesome in the 10-15 day range. No trouble there. It's getting that look inside day 5 that's the issue. Give it till the end of the month then it's punting time.

It appears to be more than a NE region issue interesting

@qg_omegaHave you been keeping track of this? Flip back to RNA started out at 1/15 as of the 1/2run, now it's 1/20 and sliding....

Looks mild and dry as far as the I can see. The threat for the 16th is over, and with that, the threat for the 18th is over. So now we will look beyond the third week of the month for any semblance of wintry weather across the US (aside from the Great Lakes in northern New England, which continues to clean up very nicely). Looks quite cold in the long range with the cold air, returning in a few days across much of the eastern, central, south US. Normally that would accompany increased chances for wintry weather, but we’ve seen how that doesn’t always play out. This has been one of the most mild starts to a January across the US that I can remember. Even in the 2023 winter and the 2024 winter, while they were in good for the vast majority of us, there was an active train of storms across the west and central US. Similar to January 2020 which was also quite mild and not snowy for the vast majority of us still had an active train of storms across the northern tier. This January has none of the above and looking into the foreseeable future, remains as dry as it has been. Remarkable

Kidding aside…that ULL moves right overhead now Thu night. There will probably be some accumulating light snows up here. You still can’t rule out this thing blowing up for E ME if we start getting some pressure falls in the GOM. But yeah, it’s only 1/12. The elephant in the room is that continues up here.

Cant be too discouraged with this mornings gfs run. Plenty of chances are coming over the next couple of weeks.

"Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, January 9th. In a panic, the weenies try to pull the plug."

Nothing gives me goosebumps quite like ensembles 10+ days away.

Chargers blew that game, should have been 14-3 early. I thought the Patriots looked beatable…Houston (if they win) will be a tough matchup. I still think the winner of the DEN/BUF game are favorites to reach the SB for the AFC.

Bout as bad as me wearing a different shirt than I normally do for the Panthers game on Saturday... We should both know better.

Looks like a continuation of the milder and dry pattern through the next week. EPS January 12 to 19 forecast

I buy it...I know someone like @qg_omegawill beat me over the head for that, but this season is going to eventually produce....I don't think I'm going to challenge my futility record.

Gonna take the blame for totals being slashed in the mountains since I said I’d book a cabin there this weekend haha

Steady....looks pretty close to the last wave that hit 8.

Not much of a winter so far across the CONUS

20 this morning