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There are going to be multiple instances where arctic air will time well with moisture and the Sub will get totally annihilated by snow. This is no ordinary Nino.

It’s not hard to research these days. Plus all bets are off with climate change regardless Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is not expected to end immediately, though scientists are actively tracking early signals that a shift could begin to take shape over the next few years .

85 my high .

I'm afraid to say this as much as we need the rain, but I really just want a cool, fallish Saturday with deep blue skies. I really want to work on my shed. Had two straight rainy weekends.

It’s gonna rain all night there. Friday too. They have no choice. Thursday A chance of showers, mainly after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 10pm. Low around 62. East wind 7 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Mid teens here

What this means is: Mid Atlantic will see more cold air intrusions, some of which WILL time with immense moisture to produce HECS in DC; Texas will get chilly but end up dry as crud. What else is new. So, in summary----- EXCITING atypical Nino Winter in the Mid Atlantic which will have frequent Siberian intrusions, some resulting in major snows, flooding rains in the Southeast, and cool weather in the Southwest and mostly dry (Texas is well west of The Plume), and the Midwest will be drier than normal, milder than normal, West and Pac NW will be milder with some storminess and the SNE/NE may see a few Nor'easters.

Get used to cold solutions, correcting warmer passing through the mid ranges

You may have already observed that correlation

Anyone else seeing windy conditions right now (9:50pm)?

SPC has day 1 marginal risk out for middle TN parts of west TN and east TN and South ky north of i40 just for 5% wind also a line of thunderstorms along the cold front making their way here too https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html .

I wonder how much butthurt would there be on here if it verifies and coal country gets a head start with measurable snow this year?

Yes and we also refused to let blacks play with whites. Not during the 70s - 90s, but it happened. Things change. Progress occurs. Stadiums have lights now. There's no need to be playing baseball during the day, especially during the league championship series.

Yes. It will turn milder, but very likely not as warm as it was today or will be on Friday.

Cooler weather will arrive overnight. The temperature will top out in the middle and upper 60s. Friday will then turn briefly milder with temperatures topping out in the lower to perhaps middle 70s ahead of another cold front. Afterward, a piece of the air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada last weekend will move into the region for the weekend. The arrival of this air mass could trigger a few showers on Friday or Friday night. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest temperatures so far this season. Highs in New York City will struggle to reach 50° on Saturday and rise only to the lower and middle 50s on Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -17.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.336 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It is interesting you mention Edna. The greatest hurricane of that period was actually Hazel. How did it keep hurricane force winds all the way to Toronto and even 113 mph to NYC? Looks like 1846 had a similar hurricane to that that occurred on this date? What the devil was going on in 1780 that made it so destructive? What were the water temperatures back then? I know our winters were historic back then because of a big volcano eruption in Iceland. By the way the climate has shifted away from east coast impacts and thats a long term shift . And yet very few east coast landfalls. Actually zero. We have seen a shift away from east coast hurricanes though and it's a long term shift that may be ACC related (stronger highs). How do you know the AMO isn't returning to its cold phase again? The warm phase as already lasted for 30 years. I think the drier years we've had the last two years indicate that change is now beginning. The AMO warm phase started in 1995. Its time is up.

Next week is precariously close to turning into a disaster .

Gaia theory has already been proven. Did you know that trees in the Amazon control their own rainfall? And are you familiar with the wood wide web how trees communicate with each other and mushrooms to control their own environment? By the way I had a long conversation with Gemini about a topic that mutually interests us I'll post some of it to you here: https://www.google.com/search?q=my+google+homepage+had+a+recent+article+on+a+recent+quantum+fluctuations+found+in+the+CMB+but+i+can't+find+the+link+can+you+find+it+for+me+and+does+it+have+anything+to+do+with+the+multiverse+or+cyclic+universe+theory&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCjEwMzk5NWowajSoAg6wAgE&client=ms-android-att-us-rvc3&sourceid=chrome-mobile&source=chrome.ob&ie=UTF-8&fbs=ABfTbFXXq5_lq1-qc-RNbCT-iVCv1pqpzFbsklS6H69T2lad0GTf_QfkL84T_NcuUjCLgDARHbyGxBgoONb2ZzsFCAMnn5FpLgyJf_3J6jzq_3iFiND4grLzxzUiNcVVuyoRfMiKsGOOY7X4WpN1LCTfZrldpw0TpjvvKV4oUNAOvaUAxCas03At6J2eiT8eezKqSbtYRKWAGaTEJ4VT73Ov27_x1hUyMxZFgnscg-h_xcAJkLt4u9I&aep=10&ntc=1&sxsrf=APpeQnumT__IKLg_2evuZ_4jCuCtXlNPsg%3A1792015565485&mstk=AUtExfAl8s-Mac66jydJ5to_El1JKf9v-eNn1Eak2ZQKRH99EF_Y51kf3_RLFau8TJxkOYqXGA8sRlWbnKyLJoc506zklVqDEIdnp7v25iZh_c3my-KuZ03iSYCogxvQyESpQ40Fks3Xxt8-LPclQd9Y4_OW5akeg0nmgyWwWIjxFMA4A0v9F0egreDUMonvblVjU4F0w8LjGxuacU0MyMUEcRRMJK0xOpOb6Pqt9qiJiUrI7X3AfPxGr6RgfawFzsyOWyITDCAIxG1eXtTPCD5JsBtMgQefa6OVLSHNg0HZ7gK8U8hzLwGFZGt8lPIKXx7t7GEN0vgS-cUx-A&csuir=1&aioh=3&mtid=o_3PauzhAueo5NoPlv_G-AM&udm=50#lfId=ChxjMe https://www.google.com/search?q=my+google+homepage+had+a+recent+article+on+a+recent+quantum+fluctuations+found+in+the+CMB+but+i+can't+find+the+link+can+you+find+it+for+me+and+does+it+have+anything+to+do+with+the+multiverse+or+cyclic+universe+theory&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCjEwMzk5NWowajSoAg6wAgE&client=ms-android-att-us-rvc3&sourceid=chrome-mobile&source=chrome.ob&ie=UTF-8&fbs=ABfTbFXXq5_lq1-qc-RNbCT-iVCv1pqpzFbsklS6H69T2lad0GTf_QfkL84T_NcuUjCLgDARHbyGxBgoONb2ZzsFCAMnn5FpLgyJf_3J6jzq_3iFiND4grLzxzUiNcVVuyoRfMiKsGOOY7X4WpN1LCTfZrldpw0TpjvvKV4oUNAOvaUAxCas03At6J2eiT8eezKqSbtYRKWAGaTEJ4VT73Ov27_x1hUyMxZFgnscg-h_xcAJkLt4u9I&aep=10&ntc=1&sxsrf=APpeQnumT__IKLg_2evuZ_4jCuCtXlNPsg%3A1792015565485&mstk=AUtExfDIKWopk4_zi8Wat6oTUVMnZ2prTce3qwEZCRq2Xqe4aYq7iCweln0-GyBG05Q1912rEkEns-YM3Z1UtgASGx6pve10N9YxYg94dJEuhlo0eNKb3j_FPMQikPWKFffBDsll7-FR6mdiYdAcNxLxLB5zMVvjtKi8EWUCO2ovu1aUZ2rkK8ifYLjpGuSLvkQwldtDGNhz75d8yiAG9KS5NUY6cndS4o2LFoeyZ-w6jiCrZdAe_CzfgKoytp0c4qH0GTkX3BowByY5CycKfxBWIitUxSifYTwRsAyq0x-xWy_heUk571C_N9sYpkNTDD3Wi5-xke9jvZsFsw&csuir=1&aioh=3&mtid=o_3PauzhAueo5NoPlv_G-AM&udm=50#lfId=ChxjMe They dont kill whales or birds. First of all they can't kill whales at all unless the whales are jumping out of the water and hundreds of feet up. And they dont kill birds because they are computerized to automatically shut off when birds approach. I'd like to have more sunny days for my newly installed solar panels. Warmer winters are actually really good for lower fossil fuel consumption.

Just looking at 12z(Euro) and the 18z GFS, the SE is sitting under a STUBBORN southeast ridge. Pretty much every HP that brings us cool air, slides over to Bermuda, and re-establishes warm, tropical return flow. Today felt like one of those sci-fi movies where the sun was growing hotter over time! El Nino winters "should" place a mean trough over the SE (but w/ poor cold sourcing). Extended summer seems like the recent norm regardless of ENSO. This feels like a La Nina fall with the exception that we have received some rain. Most years, we see the weather "snap" cold later in fall. I think this will be a slow descent into "meh" for December and a good portion of January. Then, I think we could be in business kind of like many 14-15 but less snow. We'll see. I wouldn't be surprised to see some early snow embedded in this warm pattern as crazy as that would seem - some El Nino winters have faux starts. Good to be back. Our family is doing ok. We know my Mom is with the Lord, and not suffering any longer. She fought the good fight and ran a wonderful race. As Jeff noted, she graduated to a place w/ no more suffering, a new home, and a new body. She will be greatly missed, but we will meet again. Thank you all for the notes in the winter spec thread. Those mean a lot.

That time of year. Migration stop for feeding.

It would be nice if it was more sunny October is supposed to be our sunniest month. How much more hot was October 2024? That was my all time favorite October with the warmth and dryness that lasted into mid November. No you shouldn't be sweating because it's not hot. LOSE WEIGHT GET UNDER 180 POUNDS FOR YOUR OWN HEALTH ANT! Was the heat around this time in 1995 due to Hurricane Opal cutting up to our west? I remember NYC hit 86 and the Pope was in town and people were fainting in the heat. As we all know the record setting historic snowfall season began just a month later! Also if this was NYC earliest 32 degree temperature in 1876 why does the record say that the low was actually 34? Interesting comparison between Hurricane Hazel in 1954 and the 1846 hurricane. Do we know how strong the winds were with it when it got up here? Also 1954 had a record high today was that from Hazel? Next weekend will be much better as a matter of fact it will be clear sailing for at least a week after Friday. The cool shot will only be brief and it will be warmer again next week. No it will likely be in the mid 70s again next week after this brief cool shot. Could be in the mid 70s again next week. Wow it was already in the 30s this time in 1993 but hit 80 on November 15th (the latest ever) before the long cold winter began. Just a few drops here and today was still warmer than yesterday here. The warmth is confined to the middle of the country both coasts are cool. We've barely had a few minutes of sunshine here the last two days most of the sunshine was to our west where it got into the mid 80s and set records. No it's actually perfect. You need to lose weight, Ant. It was warmer here today than it was yesterday even with the rain. Last night was really warm even for me and even at 1551 ft lol. Yesterday's splits were 52/70 and today's were 63/72. My highs are a little lower than Mt Pocono yesterday it was 71 there and today it was 73 there. Why is it so cloudy almost all the time? October is supposed to be our funniest month but even when it's not raining it's still mostly cloudy. The last two days the sun came out at 5 pm and the high temperature was at 5:20 pm. Wow no seabreeze today! Did JFK hit 80? Meh the 80 degree temperatures in February 2018 were very isolated.