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when did it go to 72? I think it use to be 36 then 48

One thing that (is expected with the more northern solutions) generally has decreased the likelyhood of 4+ inches over 24 hours from a near guarantee to a "mere" 80-90%

In agreement with this but might remove the word hellacious from my current thinking.

There’s gonna be a nasty CF in Essex county.

Nobody outside of the coastal plain is mixing with this storm. Lets get real guys.

If we get even half the storm currently modeled with those post storm temps… DC area will be shutdown for days. Had a similar type setup a few years ago and secondary roads were skating rinks for nearly a week.

to be fair his observation about the mid level low tracking too far NW for what we typically want is not wrong. But there are more variables than just that. The depth of the cold in front makes this a situation where a further NW track than typically ideal might not hurt us as much. Remember February 2015 when a storm tracking into OHIO gave us 8-14" across our area before mixing with sleet/freezing rain, because there was arctic air in front...and there was absolutely no 50/50 or blocking with that setup...it was simple that a departing arctic high had left a shit ton (borrowing this from Randy) of cold air in place in front of it and the WAA needed to scour it out produced a ton of snow before we lost thermals. And that would be kind of a worst case scenario here given the setup is even better. So on the one hand I get what he is saying...he isn't wrong about that one thing being an "issue" but I think on the whole there are factors that offset that. Hopefully I don't get schooled by a legend here.

wrecked

Well, that's kind of extreme. I'd disagree with him in that Chicago is getting the goods while we mix/ice. Certainly won't rule out some sleet here, but I'd put the snow max along the spine of the Apps through central/northern MD.

He's been in informal communications with LWX. I think they are kind of all of on the same page that have been echoed here.

I think you meant 0Z Saturday

12z EURO

For a little historical reference, Jan 94 had a sleet bomb storm that cemented all week thanks to ridiculously cold temps after.

February 2021, and possibly GHD 2011...

Gotta ride with the GFS and the AIs for now. I wouldn't expect the track to adjust back southward in future runs. North trends at close range seem to occur more often.

72 hours. And in this case they are gonna use that because its higher than normal confidence. Based on where the watches have expanded east and probs have gone up to 80% categorical in OKX. Tomorrow night. Almost guarantee theyll be out by tomorrow pm package.

Euro temps after this storm are hilarious. Lows in the negatives and wind chills down to -25

SSTs are only like 40, plus antecedent air mass...pour the ocean all over me like baby oil...just lather me up

Saw this... "Had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. "I'd rather be in Chicago."

I remember the blizzard of 1993. It was a foot of snow. Followed by freezing rain and then a deep freeze. Everything was a block of ice. It took 10 times as longer to shovel it, basically hitting it with an axe. You could actually stand on top of the snow without sinking into it.

That's my thing, why not show some real gumption and relay this concern when the core of the snow totals were projected along the N. Carolina border, not when it's to the point any novice can see the possibility. Don't do the 'ol "the reason I haven't said anything about the storm is because I feared this thing happening that is now showing to happen on the most recent model runs." Uh huh. Then say that, back when you thought it. Unless of course you never had those thoughts and are just trying to appear like the smartest guy in the room. He could have scored some real points but this just feels like covering his bases mixed with a bit of late-game justification.

To your point, just did a 24H max temp check, and ECMWF has us go below freezing at 0Z Sunday and not get above through the end of its run. In fact, many of us don't even get out of the 20s through that period.

My pont forecast shows: .61 total FR 2.3" snow Sleet is not totaled but happens from 7am sat- 4pm Sun.

Again 1 run. We will track until the day of if we have to.

Fairly sure we have a rule here about no cliff-diving/dramatics LOL! Reel it in!