All Activity

The signal for development around mid-month has been mixed on the operational and ensemble guidance, but it looks more and more like a CAG will set up and give the chance for some development in the Gulf. Today's GFS, which probably isn't right, would be fun all the way up the coast haha. Drought buster.

69/61...where's my torch

Struggling to reach 80 here.

Summer in Tolland begins on May 1.

15z RRFS shows the classic "cell ahead of line" near RUT. 15z HRRR looks somewhat better that prev runs for the SQLN holding on better farther E.

Isn’t it a bit late in the spring season to be dropping fert ? Especially since you are calling for HHH weather which tends to put our grass into dormancy. I could see it if there were a stretch of cool and wet weather coming, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.

He’s been a warminista for awhile now. He’s a few years away from moving the fam down to SW FL.

No real surprise seeing the models dry up for tonight. Dry begets dry. 87F/DP 66F

all the cloud cover over us and to the west with no storms developing until you get into eastern Ohio will push back any severe potential a few hours past the peak heating times - SPC has no mention of any possible severe watches close to the area as of 1 PM SPC Products Page

Definitely a CoastalWx switch I see. He is leaning more towards having a PT in the warm season w/ time and all the wx phenomena that comes w/ that!

Training showers now. Heat cancel. 71.8/63

The Cape Cod CONS LTG. I am pretty sure it was from a second wave after the 3 tornadic supercells in the afternoon. A few years ago, high quality photos surfaced taken from central MA showing local damage and also showed a very crisp and impressive CB in the distance to the E close to sunset. So that would jibe w/ the Cape Cod LTG.

And WxWiz would pass out from Xtreme ecstasy!

Eastern Mass would lose its mind

More on 97. Here were the monthlies: 1+2 3 4 3.4 1997 6 26.12 3.00 28.13 1.51 29.23 0.26 28.82 1.09 1997 7 25.59 3.63 27.90 2.09 29.37 0.47 28.86 1.56 1997 8 24.96 3.96 27.71 2.59 29.29 0.50 28.75 1.89 1997 9 24.69 3.96 27.74 2.84 29.44 0.68 28.85 2.13 1997 10 24.69 3.67 28.06 3.08 29.34 0.58 29.08 2.36 1997 11 26.12 4.47 28.37 3.27 29.39 0.69 29.12 2.41 1997 12 27.06 4.25 28.53 3.30 29.11 0.57 28.89 2.29 1998 1 28.12 3.55 28.74 3.08 28.95 0.64 28.93 2.38 1998 2 28.74 2.64 28.90 2.49 28.79 0.59 28.78 2.03 1+2 (peak 4.47) and 3 (peak 3.3) were way, way stronger than 4, which remained just wk (peak 0.69) and even way stronger than 3.4 (peak 2.41)! The forecast for ‘26 is much stronger in 3.4/4 and stronger in 3, but not as strong in 1+2: Per latest Euro, here are peak non-rel. monthlies: 1+2: 3.9 3: 3.9 3.4: 3.7 4: 2.4 That’s only a contrast of 1.5 from E to W compared to 3.8 in ‘97! And contrast from 1+2 to 3.4 is a mere 0.2 vs 2.1 in ‘97!! So, the prog is for ‘26 to be E based but way more balanced and thus not nearly as E based as the extremely E based ‘97.

Keeping my fingers crossed that we get a much-needed heavy downpour tonight. It has been close to 2 weeks since we've had rain and the ground is bone dry. I'm tired of having to water the vegetable garden almost every day, so hopefully some help from mother nature tonight.

HRRR is around that .25" ish

It didn't have much two weeks ago on Wednesday and we know what happened in parts of Queens and Nassau. WX/PT

Didn’t get the shower but got the humidity here

I think 50/50 shot of getting a storm here. Or at least .25 which is minimum needed to wash in . Late timing generally weakens storms but it’s not impossible

certain mets have been touting plenty of storms and downpours tonight, what could possibly go wrong?! You don't trust them? Drop the fert and be done with it!

You'll hopefully see a few storms. Yeah everything collapses rapidly, we're all expecting a dry fropa besides Coastalwx

Brief shower came through to make it nice and humid. .

Let’s get an all out torch

Probably will stay north of us... but... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0998.html Mesoscale Discussion 0998 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026 Areas affected...eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...northern West Virginia...and northern Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 061507Z - 061730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to increase in coverage and intensity through the late morning/afternoon with an increase in damaging wind potential. DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues south and east across portions of eastern Indiana into Ohio, with occasional strong to isolated severe gusts (50-60 mph). It is uncertain how this will evolve downstream, with guidance showing potential for maintenance and intensification along the remaining outflow later in the afternoon. Gradual increase in forcing for ascent will occur this afternoon as strengthening mid-level flow overspreads the area with the trough across the Great Lakes. Filtered heating is expected through broken mid-level cloud cover. This in combination with dew points in the low to mid 60s will yield around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Additionally, steepening low-level lapse rates are expected, supporting downward transport of higher momentum flow aloft to the surface. Additional downstream development is likely with potential for several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind through the afternoon. While exact timing of this threat remains uncertain, a watch will likely be needed to cover this potential by the afternoon. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...