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What does this mean? You aren't talking dry when you say instability, correct?

I think you’re an AI Bot…sent to infiltrate.

The big 3 RRFS HRRR 3km nam

Deep deep winter out there. Let’s get some big numbers tonight. 16.4/1 at WXW1 3.2/-3 at WXW2

True banter thought - whenever I read someone say a long range prog looks good and then says "hopefully we can avoid ______" - I think reflexively think, yeah, we won't avoid _______"... See e.g. - My reflexive thought: gonna be a big ridge bridge fo' sho'...

Slower on the NAM and being pulled back closer to OBX? This would certainly mean more QPF over eastern NC but also CNC as well correct? Looks much wetter than 12Z to my untrained eyes.

I've been around here for 25 years. Agree this kind of cold usually has an expiration date. Usually it's 24-48 hours.

Can we get group rates???

Yeah, big picture, it's good news. In the moment, I totally get the frustration. The atmosphere is a fickle mistress when it comes to snow desires for sure...

jan 2005?

Down the line western trough/-PNA showing up, if we hold the blocking and run that energy into the cold that’s built up I could see some major mid month storm like we saw with the last event. Hopefully we can avoid any ridge bridging in the east

Separate. But now I wonder if he meant to say E based Nino.

SN/+SN for over an hour now at ORD.

NAM is literally just playing hopscotch skipping back-and-forth every run. It didn’t even screw the Triad that run. I have zero confidence in what’s going to happen to be honest .

These are the first big changes we've seen to the SPC outlook in a long time. SPC will transition to issuing conditional intensity information beginning with the 1630Z (10:30 AM CT) Day 1 Changes to Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 1, 2, and 3 Convective Outlook Probabilities of Significant Severe Hazards on March 3, 2026 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/

Anyone have the latest graf model to post?

Still running but the 3k has widespread 8-10”

We're like 12 hours from the event and I've been following this from the beginning. 0 clue what's going to happen IMBY lol. Literally anything from 0" - 12" seems possible. Outrageous.

The HRRR is really only good for taking radar trends as the event unfolds (under 8 hours) and creating a kind of future radar projection. And for thermal profiles. I wish they had never made it run past 18 hours

Seriously. Either Raleigh gets nothing or a foot. It’s crazy how far off these models are from each other this close to game time.

3 metro airports are all at or above climo season to date, right?

wow these 18z models are hitting hard. Johnson city over 15" on 3km NAM