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0z Euro, full split by NOV 7 10mb 50mb One week later warming still undergoing 10mb 50mb Regardless if u-wind reversal occurs (full SSW), this is very impressive! Is there another year comparable? Is there another super el nino that has an early warming & comparable to this?

No. Pattern is furnaced

Too bad it’s not a 30 min game lol

Burrow has 0 points in the last 6 quarters against Baltimore

You’ll freeze before that.

Offense has dominated, and defense has played lights out, but only 13-0? Bengals are gonna wake up at some point. Some bad throws by Snoop in that last series. Should have had a TD.

No, i'd rather have cooler weather. Kankakee's October is avg for Raleigh NC. I lived in SC for 17 years, I remember it well.

you’d rather have bouts of rain showers? pass.

Set up the sprinkler?

Become anomalous enough to no longer be boring imo

We are in the midst of one of the best stretches of autumn weather I can remember. Almost hit 70 after a low of 27. Wandering around the yard looking for something to do, but its all done...

Couple weeks? lol. Won’t freeze thru Tgiving

Perfect October day. 61* and not a cloud in sight at Pit2.

Why are you watering things that are going to be frozen and dead in a couple weeks? #wasteoftime

close to 70 here, thanks to a stiff S wind. Watching wednesday for a potential record high (current is 72), and the NWS point is 71.

Got down to 33 here this morning. That was a close call, but the plants in the vegetable garden look ok.

Early Nov looks quite torch. the overnight lows are what the daytime highs should be in that timeframe... mid to upper 50s.

I have a tarp on mine. I moved it further away we’ll see what happens

My early fall issue is proximity to a much much larger pool.

I'm not defending the Cfs2, but all the models have their share of major fails and/or persistent biases at one time or another. That said, the point of my post was that the Cfs2 was confirming your call. You don't want confirmations from modeling for your calls? Fine....Chuck the models say you suck! Lol You know I'm just bustin' chops.

Picked up .07" yesterday.

The MJO into the IOD,which still is having some effect on the ENSO,by waves,the MJO regardless how you look at it into the thermocline isnt getting stronger,its slowly weakening right now Right now,it still looks like the MJO is going to be probably stick into the IO the next couple weeks and just being getting destructive interfernce form Rossby and Kelvin waves.You can really see a Rossby Wave moving in the East pac moving east to west,the next several days just as much with the aide of a KW,least that what it seems right now,today

I think @GaWx has done some research that it is tied into cooler mid-Winter conditions, I think -AO tendency. We had one around the same time last year, and I believe he used it to forecast a cooler Dec and Jan. I think we want November Stratosphere warmings because they correlate with -AO 30-45 days later. Something not a lot of people know though is in the DJFM mean, warm Stratosphere has direct correlation with above average temps, in the Northeast, US, and cold Stratosphere - below average temps, in the mean-Winter-total

I posted on a Western US wx board in 2024 and 2025. One of the members there was obsessed with the CFS, kept posting from Aug-Oct several runs showing -38F departure monthly, yes -38f, in the PNW for Dec in 2024. Then it did it again in 2025, -38F! Dec 2024 and 2025. Seattle/Portland, etc. This is how it verified

28.2 at 7 am.