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Yup.

They're all sloppy with the QPF fields...if that ends up being more a consolidated WAA snow shield we may see this overperform. Once again though the NAM was pretty bad with this til we got inside 36. I've been saying for awhile now, avoid that model beyond 36, sometimes it does okay 36-48 but often time its the final day or day and a half where its reliable.

Look at how much the EPS has cooled for the lows of Dec 30th in just 6 runs thanks to the pushback from the strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging! It has cooled this much from the Friday 12Z run, an amazing amount for an ensemble mean over such a short period: - Roxboro, NC 12F from 38 to 26 - Charlotte 14F from 40 to 26 - CAE 14F from 43 to 29 - SAV 15F from 48 to 33 - ATL 18F from 45 to 27 - Chattanooga 19F from 41 to 22 - Nashville 19F from 42 to 23 - Birmingham 20F from 47 to 27 - Tupelo 19F from 48 to 29 - Chicago 13F from 30 to 17 - Tulsa 11F from 43 to 32 12Z 12/19 EPS: 0Z 12/22 EPS:

I agree. And I feel like I’ve seen mentioned here, these types of deals historically have ticked north in the last couple days. The one real problem I see is the trajectory is pretty unfavorable the further east and NE you go. It’s a good look for CT, but not so much here

It will probably end up like a situation where it will come back enough for CT, but I'll be bent over before the next MHT points north event hits.

While we got more snow overall last season they actually had a larger single storm accumulation than we did.

Just absolutely can not win....unbelievable. That said, I would be surprised if that actually ends up whiffing.

12z HRRR is pretty much shredded garbage for everyone. SW CT looks okay

i have big fingers. Sorry.

That is about my guess for the moment on what happens. I think it'll be extremely hard to get this to be heavily frozen this far south.

I’ll tell you what. Heads are going to explode if this ends up getting crushed south. Everything rides over NNE or through NY and then the cold press shows up just in time to punt a good system down to the Mid Atlantic

I think this is what's most frustrating for me. We finally have a great Atlantic setup but the Pacific is screwing us from getting a snowy pattern.

Depends where you live. lol

Shit or shift? Lol

12Z NAM12km, NAM3km, FV3 and RGEM all show 1" or more along and N of 78, including for NYC. We might get an overperformer if we're lucky.

Yea, it certainly did shit on me...like most runs and storms.

There’s been a subtle shift of trending the inv trough from SW ME more northward to the midcoast. Although I see the FV3 just came in with warning criteria here.

Look at how much the EPS has cooled for the lows of Dec 30th in just 6 runs thanks to the pushback from the strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging! It has cooled this much from the Friday 12Z run, an amazing amount for an ensemble mean over such a short period: - Roxboro, NC 12F from 38 to 26 - Charlotte 14F from 40 to 26 - CAE 14F from 43 to 29 - SAV 15F from 48 to 33 - ATL 18F from 45 to 27 - Chattanooga 19F from 41 to 22 - Nashville 19F from 42 to 23 - Birmingham 20F from 47 to 27 - Tupelo 19F from 48 to 29 - Chicago 13F from 30 to 17 - Tulsa 11F from 43 to 32 12Z 12/19 EPS: 0Z 12/22 EPS:

Everyone should get some.

Icon slightly more south

South shift on icon

Uhhh...

Is that dong meant to go right up my arse, cause that’s what it feels like

BDL right in the tip.

Nice NWS-Philly discussion of the possible 12/26 event. Would love to score a "surprise" snowfall on Friday. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 546 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025 Beyond Christmas Day, forecast uncertainty becomes very high. Guidance indicates there will be a high over eastern or southeastern Canada with low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes and toward the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. This setup will likely bring precipitation to our area. The 00Z suite of guidance had a significant change in course, indicating a much stronger high and weaker, more suppressed low. This solution would introduce potential for wintry precip for our region and much colder temperatures, quite the change from widespread 50s and rain from before. The shift in guidance was consistent between different models. GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all showing this much colder, wintry solution now, however given this *very* recent change in course, have stuck with NBM for now until there is more consistency in a colder, more wintry solution. Precipitation is still likely, with 50-80% PoPs, however we could be dealing with all rain, a significant wintry system, or anything in between. Remain alert for changes to the forecast for the Friday timeframe.