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Morning low of 5F. Warmup begins today. Going to be a photo finish whether our snowpack survives for a white Christmas.

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MJO moving into phase 2, PNA tanking, NAO going from negative to neutral. Too soon to call the month shot but January is looking extremely bleak. We’re losing the cold in Canada and likely will be looking at a total reset needed on this side of the globe. In other words, this is trending towards a disaster as we head into prime climo. Looks like a pure Nina pattern developing with continental air. My god any optimism has faded at rapid rates this year

You are correct. The recently added Newark snowfall back to 1843-1844 shows a 30 year snowfall average of 43.7”. So areas just west of the present I-95 corridor were probably closer to 50”. The winter average temperature then was 30.7° which is 7° colder than the most recent 10 year average. Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.8 9.1 12.1 12.6 7.3 1.8 43.7 1843-1844 0.0 1.3 9.5 5.5 13.5 1.8 0.0 31.6 1844-1845 0.0 0.5 6.5 5.5 20.5 5.5 T 38.5 1845-1846 0.0 T 8.5 16.5 28.0 T T 53.0 1846-1847 0.0 1.5 12.0 10.0 21.0 4.3 0.5 49.3 1847-1848 0.0 T 6.0 T 8.0 5.0 T 19.0 1848-1849 0.0 1.3 24.0 T 13.0 6.0 0.0 44.3 1849-1850 0.0 0.0 11.0 3.0 T 9.0 8.0 31.0 1850-1851 0.0 0.0 6.0 2.5 3.5 10.5 2.0 24.5 1851-1852 0.0 2.0 7.0 20.0 14.0 16.0 4.3 63.3 1852-1853 0.0 T T 15.5 2.3 7.0 T 24.8 1853-1854 0.0 M 6.0 15.0 23.5 2.8 13.5 60.8 1854-1855 0.0 T 8.0 18.5 16.0 2.5 T 45.0 1855-1856 0.0 T 9.0 32.8 5.0 11.0 0.0 57.8 1856-1857 0.0 0.5 4.3 28.1 2.1 17.0 0.0 52.0 1857-1858 0.0 T 4.5 1.8 10.5 10.5 T 27.3 1858-1859 0.0 5.5 6.5 12.3 15.8 6.0 T 46.1 1859-1860 3.0 0.0 5.1 11.3 25.0 2.5 T 46.9 1860-1861 0.0 T 7.0 20.6 1.3 17.0 2.0 47.9 1861-1862 0.0 1.0 1.0 12.0 25.5 4.6 6.0 50.1 1862-1863 0.0 6.5 8.0 10.0 13.0 10.9 1.8 50.2 1863-1864 0.0 T 4.3 7.0 1.0 7.0 T 19.3 1864-1865 0.0 0.3 26.0 10.5 12.5 T 0.0 49.3 1865-1866 0.0 0.0 13.1 11.8 8.0 1.5 T 34.4 1866-1867 0.0 T 7.0 23.5 15.5 17.5 T 63.5 1867-1868 0.0 T 15.5 23.3 14.0 15.0 7.0 74.8 1868-1869 T 0.0 9.5 11.0 12.0 5.0 0.6 38.1 1869-1870 T T 8.1 1.8 8.5 11.0 3.0 32.4 1870-1871 0.0 T 5.0 16.0 16.1 1.3 2.0 40.4 1871-1872 0.0 T 8.5 2.0 5.0 8.5 T 24.0 1872-1873 0.0 4.0 25.1 14.1 23.3 2.2 3.0 71.7 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 32.2 29.1 30.7 30.7 1843-1844 33.4 25.5 31.5 30.1 1844-1845 32.5 33.4 32.7 32.9 1845-1846 27.7 30.7 27.2 28.5 1846-1847 30.8 31.7 29.5 30.7 1847-1848 35.1 33.7 30.5 33.1 1848-1849 40.5 24.5 24.9 30.0 1849-1850 33.4 33.5 35.4 34.1 1850-1851 33.2 33.9 36.6 34.6 1851-1852 27.7 25.9 30.9 28.2 1852-1853 39.9 31.9 35.1 35.6 1853-1854 32.4 28.4 30.6 30.5 1854-1855 29.7 32.4 26.9 29.7 1855-1856 33.7 22.3 25.2 27.1 1856-1857 30.8 21.1 35.2 29.0 1857-1858 37.4 35.1 26.4 33.0 1858-1859 34.1 31.5 33.2 32.9 1859-1860 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.0 1860-1861 29.1 28.9 35.7 31.2 1861-1862 35.1 27.1 30.3 30.8 1862-1863 33.4 32.8 31.9 32.7 1863-1864 30.8 29.6 33.4 31.3 1864-1865 32.6 21.7 30.0 28.1 1865-1866 35.6 28.3 30.6 31.5 1866-1867 31.4 22.9 36.4 30.2 1867-1868 27.5 25.4 21.3 24.7 1868-1869 28.3 33.1 33.8 31.7 1869-1870 33.0 36.2 30.6 33.3 1870-1871 33.7 26.4 29.7 29.9 1871-1872 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.7 1872-1873 24.8 24.9 27.5 25.7

It would just be a gut punch to strike out for the rest of the winter.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002759593269792869?s=46 Well…

damage control activated

Thats a overunning prolific snow storm on the 6z Euro. Ongoing at day 6

First of all winter is far from over.if we get a few inches Tuesday morning, ,might be enough for a white Christmas. Second with NAO and AO going negative...we will have several shots in the next few weeks..Models have not picked up on the -NAO....a few days Christmas day was forecasted to be in the 60's..now the 30's.Stop looking at the long range Euro or GFS..it's wrong.

Eff snow and cold. I'll take another month of these.

Aside from outliers, this has basically been a 1-3/2-4 type event for much of interior SNE for a couple days now. There’s still some uncertainty on whether a little norlun/IVT can develop but my money would be downeast or mid-coast Maine for that. But it’s possible it could sneak down to north shore area too.

As per my previous posts, there are legitimate reasons why I believe this winter will not be conducive for snowfall. Doesn't mean "winter is over" or anything like that. But there are reasons as to why I believe that this winter might not be a good one, along with some thoughts on how the pattern can change. In the 2025-2026 ENSO page, I outlined those thoughts last night.

The roads from this highly unlikely 0Z Euro still in semi-fantasyland (mainly Dec 30th there) snow out of nowhere (and only one of the 50 EPS members (#30) has anything like this) would be fine by Jan 2nd per the same run. So, you’d just be left with beautiful scenery for your closing. If this were to somehow happen though, there’d be many very upset members NC/TN north. They’d be giving @suzookand @dsaura hard time! So, maybe it’s better it not happen lol. I don’t think they’ll need to worry about this occuring.

Its becoming weaker on the models

I kinda, sorta remember that storm but don’t. How much did we get? I’m thinking it was a wet, nickel & dime thingy. Anyway… Just got solstice’d, daylight is increasing, sun angle getting higher 38F

You don’t want to talk about the weather. You want to talk about snow and positive outcomes. That’s not the weather we’re experiencing, or have experienced the last half decade. I have no time for the all snow all the time crew, who ignore mountains of evidence of a bad snow regime pinning hopes to a needle in the haystack solution. Period.

Some pretty good gusts right now, wasn’t really expecting that.

It does? Looks like icon confines accumulation to SW CT

Every model coming in further south at 12z

We moved into my current house December 8, 2018. I think some on this board remember that date. Thought at the time I’d cracked the code for snow in triangle

Icon is also coming in further south. Bolds well for SNE.

Well some of us are still torching on Xmas. Lol

There are a few others like him on here.

Can we get rid of this guy on here? This is supposed to be an intelligent weather forum. I have snowpiles on my lawn and I need to read this moron telling us on 12/21 that we are done with snow for the winter? Why are we tolerating posts like this?

Looks like ens are filling in with 2 camps now. The mean shows no major shift with large scale features but under the hood looks more promising. Fairly deep (semi stable?) trough diving down and height rises along the west coast. Could be the first sign of a way out of the current doh! pattern lol. Ops are obviously hinting at the idea with the 6z gfs going straight nuts lol