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  1. Past hour
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Correlation between May-Sept SSTA and Nov-March NAO. Edit: I actually have it in reverse, I should have done lag instead of lead. Here's the +3-6 month correlation: This means that for a Winter -NAO you want cold water in that pool south of New Foundland
  3. Yardstickgozinya
    Get a second and third opinion, especially if it doesn't run in the family. After nearly 2 years of extreme pain discomfort and weight loss, I too was diagnosed with severe Crohn's disease in 2002 . I was scheduled to get part of my intestines removed, but I was so fearful of the surgery that I didn't follow through. Fast forward a few months later, and I actually started to improve. I decided to see another gastroentinologist and they diagnosed me with chronic gastroparesis and told me that was probably the best that I was ever going to get. Fast forward a few months later and I was fully recovered, and I haven't had any problems since. I've shared this experience with several people over the years. Apparently Gastroenterologists misdiagnose a lot.
  4. IronTy
    What exactly am I looking at here?
  5. donsutherland1
    Through today, JFK Airport has had an average high temperature of 82.50° while Central Park's average maximum temperature is 81.85°. The only June that saw JFK Airport record a higher average high temperature than Central Park was June 2015 when JFK Airport edged Central Park 78.53° to 78.50°.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's camped there from July-through September, too.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Preceding Atlantic SSTA for following cold season NAO I find May-Sept is the best because it has that positive correlation around Greenland which you can play vs SSTA south of New Foundland
  8. Yardstickgozinya
    Light shower here in Mechanicsburg
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Copernicus seasonal mean seems to have a New Foundland cold pool in November.
  10. dendrite
    What a torch of a first half. Full fledged summer.
  11. dendrite
    fixed
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    This what I meant this morning when I said we'd be walking a tight-rope...this season pull it off, though with a slight nude east of the warm pool. We are do for a good Nino...it's been over a decade.
  13. Baroclinic Zone
    Gorgeous evening Wind has subsided from earlier.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just make sure it doesn't spill over into the Indian Ocean and produce a +WPO
  15. JACKASS
    Why is “yes” a question mark?! Change it to a check mark please. @dendrite
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    At some point, all of that warmth in region 4 is going to produce a Modoki season.
  17. Modfan2
    Looks like some decent showers from Ellington CT down to Norwich area, missing just to my west
  18. JACKASS
    Pouring now. With hay laying .07 in less than 3 minutes.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another interesting thing will be the Feb-March PNA. This 9-year period is the most extreme anomaly for any 9-year period on records over the last 120 years.
  20. Today
  21. donsutherland1
    The weekend will conclude with fair and warm conditions. Highs will mainly reach the lower 80s. Monday and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on Monday into Monday night. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.112 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7 (1.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  22. FPizz
    Tons around here too.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, well....we did just see a 2013-2014 type of pattern last year, so who knows.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we are the furthest thing from seeing west-based Nino patterns decadally, despite general warming in Nino 4. Another question is if the North Pacific High weakens this year. It's like a 5 std "PDO" vs 5 std east-based El Nino. Interesting!
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    In the seasonal mean, sure....DJFM isn't averaging -NAO...not a huge leap of faith. But we just need one. month to average -NAO.
  26. SouthCoastMA
    Meh, wagons East with the precip. HRRR was more correct
  27. 40/70 Benchmark
    I find it interesting that last year had an SST profile that mimicked a Modoki set up, but the competing MC influence combined with the +WPO ended up making the pattern look east based. Some of the guidance this year is implying that while the SST may look more east-based, the warm pooling pulling more eastward with potentially a more favorable WPO may result in a more Modoki pattern. Tricky how CC modifies these traditional relationships.
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