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CMC should come in hot, RGEM is amped

0z RGEM is very warm east and south of 85

Still rain..but looks to change pretty quick.

Super light precip but it’s mostly snow when actually gets falling.

Yeah, I’m rooting for this in hope to maybe chase on the plateau.

So far everything ticked a little better at 0z. That's better than the opposite. Looks like a burst of snow or rain on Sat. and a close call for something Sunday. Still a little time to trend better.

Check the panel before that friend

0z Rgem with a great look at the end of its run. Orientation of the trough looked really good

Rain?

Ha..RGEM gets light precip up to W Md

0z ICON with a big jump west

3K NAM appears to be headed towards a rain but timing works out and trys to salvage something. here's what it shows at 00z

RGEM gets some...rain closer, lol

Why is it that the NAM is so much colder than the other models for Friday night? It makes sense that the Great Lakes low would fail to provide east TN with enough cold air for snow, but that feature seems to be in a similar position with a similar strength on the NAM and RRFS/RGEM. Is the NAM just wrong? Does the NAM think heavier precipitation rates are dropping surface temperatures enough for snow for I-40 and north? Does the NAM just have the shortwave digging slightly more? Like Holston_River_Rambler mentioned earlier, I feel like the NAM (especially the high res NAM) seems to be the best at picking up TN valley warm noses, it's strange how it's the cold outlier here.

RGEM and ICON start the party off significantly more amped than 18z

Well, NAM was way way different than the 18z GFS at the same hour. It’s the 84 hour nam though so who knows what that means really.

It took a pretty good size jump west. You do realize the storm is still 4 days away right? Every model has been trending west. Not saying a GFS blizzard is on the table. But a few Inches certainly isn't out of the question

Trended west just like the Euro. .

3k NAM is delivering a solid Advisory event to the LSV on Saturday as well At the end of its 60 hour run.

ICON has a storm just offshore. But verbatim there’s nothing for most of us. Very similar to its last run. Light snow with a larger storm offshore. Aside from the GFS, that seems to be the consensus for now. Trough struggles to turn negative. Therein lies the issue

Chalk 2 up trending towards GFS

Snowfall totals associated with the overperforming snow squall/snow showers from this morning/afternoon... Final snowfall totals 1.4" - ORD T - RFD …2025/26 Season Snowfall... 21.5" - ORD 19.4" - RFD

Yeah, Icon got closer

Absolutely dumped there for a bit but slowing down a bit now. Can't really hear any wind overhead which is weird. Temp only down to 31 but I'm sure that'll fall off soon.