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18z Euro going to peel some paint off the cruiser in NY, It’s pretty warm

Forcast has not changed. Biggest factors are thump and ground temps, both things models will keep waffling on.

At about 300 hours, the 18z GFS looked like it was trying to do it all over again, but the northern stream energy coming out of Alberta cut off and started drifting southwest over Utah.

No power would kind of put a dent in tracking future winter storms. Give me some light snow Thursday w/ that front.

The lakes are probably going to form Ice fast over the next week so we might lose a little from that.

I have a feeling the 1 to 3 inches of sleet forecast by FWD might be a tad underdone given what I am seeing in the models and the potential for convective sleet.

That storm next weekend is a legit blizzard. Key for us, assuming its anywhere close to accurate is get that phase to happen much earlier.

No, what's the story?

Been working outside all day at home. The front went through a while ago with a burst of wind from near dead calm conditions. The gust was clearly cooler than the ambient air it was replacing.. How much I don't know - but it was a pretty cool experience we don't get much around here..

2013 was the most snow I've seen in one storm in my life, including 78, jan 2011, and so on I can go... I remember early 2000s, Will may remember the storm, but we had a two day stall closed low, and got maybe 2' all said and done over a two day period, and that was hyped as the apocalypse, maybe was PD1, I can't remember, but 78, 82 stick out to me because we actually couldn't leave the house for at least a day.

The NWS finally dropped their snowfall forecasts (new and previous attached) to a somewhat more reasonable level, especially S of 78 where sleet will likely be at least at a moderate level. Likely tied to the NBM drop.

In sports, they say if you "turn the corner" enough...you might end up right where you started.

S. Denton Ct here - OAT is a good 1-2C lower than most models projected today. Feels like the transition time gonna be quite a bit earlier.

6-12 is the forecast for here. I will expect closer to 6, but if precip comes in hot and heavy as some runs have shown, upside might be better.

Yes. Here’s the NWS forecast:

I stg next weeks storm better not be too warm

I didn't realize you were that far north in Illinois. Sorry I didn't realize... I just looked it up, and probably should have known that since you post here some. I know now! Yeah, that is cold! For some reason I thought you were in central Illinois. It makes sense now why you were mentioning bare ground during December.

That was a rapidly strengthening coastal low. https://www.weather.gov/phi/eventreview20220129 https://bluehill.org/historic-blizzard-of-2022-impacted-new-england-with-strong-winds-and-record-snowfall/

Fyp

These last 2 gfs runs belong in the weenie hall of fame.

GEFS snow depth mean is still nuts. It definitely decreased from 12Z though.

my wife works p/t at Stop and Shop and she said it was absolute chaos in there, like people, it ain't 78, or even 2013, which was only a one day inconvenience...i mean Oct 11 was a mess to where shopping like that was warranted but c'mon folks, it's like a storm has never been here before, boggles my mind every time

Your kid will teach you, haha.

Going out to look at the empty shelves in the grocery store tomorrow morning.

I believe the forecast is actually 11/12 at islip can you confirm that?