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What if it has that same jet configuration in Jan/Feb?

November 1 2000: An F1 tornado touches down on a farm east of Prinsburg in Kandiyohi County destroying a small storage shed. It also tipped another shed on its side, and ripped off a portion of the roof of a third shed. 1999: High winds are reported in central Minnesota. The St. Cloud State University Meteorology Department in Stearns County recorded a 65 mph gust. The Morris AWOS in Stevens County posted a 62 mph gust and the Willmar AWOS in Kandiyohi county recorded a 59 mph gust. Area-wide sustained winds of 40 mph occurred, with gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range. 1991: Classes are canceled across the state due to the Halloween Blizzard. Three foot drifts are measured across I-94 from the Twin Cities to St. Cloud. MSP airport records its all-time record daily snowfall total of 18.5 inches. For Sunday, November 1, 2026 1755 - A magnitude 8.7 earthquake devastated Lisbon, Portugal, on this day, killing as many as 50,000 people. The epicenter was located 120 miles west-southwest of Cape St. Vincent. In addition, many individuals who sought safety on the Tagus River were killed by an estimated 20-foot tall tsunami that struck 40 minutes after the earthquake. 1848 - When Joseph Henry came to the Smithsonian, one of his priorities was to set up a meteorological program. In 1847, while outlining his plan for the new institution, Henry called for "a system of extended meteorological observations for solving American storms." On November 1st, 1848, Joseph Henry and Navy meteorologist James Espy wrote a letter urging anyone interested in becoming a weather observer to signify their willingness to do so. By 1849, he had budgeted $1,000 for the Smithsonian meteorological project and established a network of some 150 volunteer weather observers. A decade later, the project had more than 600 volunteer observers, including people in Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Its cost in 1860 was $4,400, or thirty percent of the Smithsonian's research and publication budget. 1861 - A hurricane near Cape Hatteras, NC, battered a Union fleet of ships attacking Carolina ports, and produced high tides and high winds in New York State and New England. (David Ludlum) 1870 - United States Army Signal Corps observers at 24 sites around the country simultaneously made weather reports and transmitted them to Washington, where a national weather map would be drawn. These simultaneous reports also started the process of sending out weather reports by telegraph to metropolitan newspapers. This would be the beginning of our present-day National Weather Service. 1966 - Santa Anna winds fanned fires, and brought record November heat to parts of coastal California. November records included 86 degrees at San Francisco, 97 degrees at San Diego, and 101 degrees at the International airport in Los Angeles. Fires claimed the lives of at least sixteen firefighters. (The Weather Channel) 1968 - A tornado touched down west of Winslow, AZ, but did little damage in an uninhabited area. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in central Arizona produced hail an inch in diameter at Williams and Gila Bend, and drenched Payson with 1.86 inches of rain. Hannagan Meadows AZ, meanwhile, was blanketed with three inches of snow. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Ohio Valley. Afternoon highs of 76 degrees at Beckley WV, 77 degrees at Bluefield WV, and 83 degrees at Lexington KY were records for the month of November. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Low pressure brought gales and locally heavy rain to the northeastern U.S. The rainfall total of 1.46 inches at Newark NJ was a record for the date. New York City was soaked with more than two inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A strong cold front ushered snow and arctic air into the north central U.S. Snow whitened North Dakota and the Central High Plains Region. Up to five inches of snow blanketed Denver CO. Yellowstone Park WY was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 4 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2014 - Up to 6 inches of snow fell in Gilbert, South Carolina. Observances: 1 Sun National Calzone Day 1 Sun World Vegan Day 1 Sun New York City Marathon 1 Sun National Brush Day 1 Sun Native American Heritage Month 1 Sun National Adoption Month 1 Sun All Saints' Day 1 Sun No Shave November 1 Sun Movember 1 Sun National Author's Day 1 Sun National Scented Candle Day 1 Sun Daylight Saving Time Ends 1 Sun Day of the Dead 1 Sun Anniversary of the Revolution 1 Sun Coronation Day of His Majesty the King 1 Sun D. Hamilton Jackson Day 1 Sun Extra Mile Day 1 Sun International Pet Groomer Appreciation Day 1 Sun National Biologic Coordinators Day 1 Sun National Cinnamon Day 1 Sun National Cook For Your Pets Day 1 Sun National Deep Fried Clams Day 1 Sun National Family Literacy Day 1 Sun National Mia Day 1 Sun National Pâté Day 1 Sun National Vinegar Day 1 Sun Prime Meridian Day

South shore was colder last night than north shore due to very light northerly flow off the sound. Still not below freezing anywhere locally and looks to stay that way for a few weeks, so definitely a late freeze here this year

More just to show the general idea snow maps and all will have the counties and everything right.

We may have a coastal before mid month, but after you can see in my earlier post that we have the classic PAC screamer of a jet.

35.9 and first frost.

I’ve been snotty all week. Thought it was kid germs, as she’s also gross, but feel fine overall so think it’s allergies

Will the giga-Nino rainy pattern ever arrive!?!?!!!?

We’ve found an AI that’s better with not messing up maps so hopefully that won’t be a problem going forward.

To add some numbers to this. taking my local station as an example, there is a chance HGR will run its current consecutive no precip streak into the 20's of days, possibly ending at 19 if it rains Thur. Ironically the same station already has one other such streak of 20 days this year ending in Feb. As you alluded to, 3 other years since 2017 have had similar strings around this time. Here is 2017-2026, including all months, with the Met fall data points highlighted.

Oh we can absolutely run into a big storm or two, but that’s not going to save a winter in NNE. I mean, I’m a very positive person but can’t spin a couple big storms in a sea of meh as a “not too bad” winter like 2015-16. The biggest problem is the lack of arctic shuts off our main snow divers in NW flow, lake effect, etc. That stuff probably accounts for at least half the mountain snow with synoptic the other half. These maps show how the lack of cold in Canada moving SEward really stunts snowfall in this area back towards the lakes.

Happy November, all

BWI: 18” DCA: 15” IAD: 21” RIC: 3” Tiebreaker SBY: 2”

That’s refreshing to hear.

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites · · The dry stretch of sunny days will come to an end by the end of this week. Thursday will feature a fall frontal system that will bring widespread appreciable rain to the area for the first time since the beginning of October. Clouds and rain are expected to linger into the beginning of the weekend.

Yea im throwing in the towel before winter begins.

oday back in 1950 Phoenixville 1E hit 86 degrees and the county as a whole averaged 84.7 for a high...this followed the warmest Halloween ever recorded across the entire USA. That date here in Chester County was the warmest November 1st since records began in 1890. Today we should see highs from near 60 degrees in ridge locations to the low 60's in valley spots with lows tonight in the mid 30's to low 40's. Our warmest day this week will be Wednesday with highs not far from 70 degrees! We turn progressively chillier starting Thursday and by next Sunday morning we should see lows in the mid 30's to low 40's, not far from freezing in the colder valleys! It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Thursday into Friday with around 1.8" possible according to our ChescoWx model.

Busted forecast. Steady light rain all morning

Today back in 1950 Phoenixville 1E hit 86 degrees and the county as a whole averaged 84.7 for a high...this followed the warmest Halloween ever recorded across the entire USA. That date here in Chester County was the warmest November 1st since records began in 1890. Today we should see highs from near 60 degrees in ridge locations to the low 60's in valley spots with lows tonight in the mid 30's to low 40's. Our warmest day this week will be Wednesday with highs not far from 70 degrees! We turn progressively chillier starting Thursday and by next Sunday morning we should see lows in the mid 30's to low 40's, not far from freezing in the colder valleys! It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Thursday into Friday with around 1.8" possible according to our ChescoWx model.

BWI: 0.5” DCA: 0.2” IAD: 0.6” RIC: T Tiebreaker SBY: T

You can continue to bet against the RAGING El Nino....one that has already taken out the Atlantic hurricane season...

You got me. I’m making this all up and my Davis is broken . All the flowers and veggies are dead . It has all been a charade

They were mid 30s most of the night and then snuck a brief 29-32° in there when winds went calm. It looks like just a freak spike down that was localized to them.

My youngest son loves sloths so I carved him this for Halloween last night.

The CANSIPS was/is by far and away the worst. Just embarrassingly horrible with both the strength and orientation of this El Niño. It was the weakest of all the other models (dead wrong), it finally, at long last just woke up and is now showing a +4.1C peak in December and it kept insisting on a Modoki event (also dead wrong) and it still is. Just awful. It needs a complete overhaul