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MU gettin' feisty... MU Weather Center The SPC has placed us under a "slight risk" for #severewx on Thurs, but I strongly disagree. The setup is basically a "rinse and repeat" of last Friday. Strong, WSW flow will cause a "downsloping" effect off the Apps, & leftover convection moves through during the morning hours.

If NJ was getting soaked on models, I feel like the fear would be it stays south and Stein has a grip, ha. There’s no spot on a map for moisture that would illicit a “this looks good right now” .

A delightful 43 here this am.

All true, and the newsies seem always focused on the worst-case scenarios. ("If it bleeds, it leads.")

Wait for it - "it always trends north"

That's a superb basketball hoop you have there!

Possible, could also go so far under you it stays dry too. But I get it, you’ll never even give it a chance of happening for the next 5 months regardless of model data.

Though it's now #3, that 1947 storm might've been Central Park's biggest, exceeded due to measurement changes. My opinion is based on snow depth. The 12/47 event pushed the pack from 2" to 26" (NYC's tallest on record), while #2 - Feb 2006 - only reached 17" and #1 - Jan 2016 - brought the depth from zero to 22". I think that Central Park records depth at noon, or why the 26th only reported 4" despite nearly all the snow fell before midnight, and that 26" pack was measured about 10 hours after accumulation had stopped. The numbers: 12/25 33 19 0 0 2" 12/26 31 25 2.36" 26.1" 4" 12/27 35 29 0.04" 0.3" 26" We'll never know for sure.

I've also noticed the "FengWu" ones seem to be more bullish than the other one. Maybe it's just not well calibrated or something?

The expanding drought has enhanced the daily high temperatures. We have been more on a La Niña background pattern through the WPAC warm pool leading to a strong ridge setting up over the East and ongoing national drought. Looks like the record El Niño will began to exert some influence next few weeks with the more standard Great Lakes trough and Western ridge for June El Niño climo. We could briefly see some 90° readings on Thursday. But the next few weeks will be a relaxation for the record heat of the first half of June. We will have to wait until we get near the start of July to see how much the El Niño and marine heatwaves in other regions like the WPAC influence the July pattern.

50 even last night. Wanted that .1 less to get into the 40s, haha

They’ve all trended north all spring . SNE will end up warm sectored in that

Slight risk introduced for today for Michiana, 5% TOR

All emotion all the time? Monday on GFS and Euro looked tailored to you. Obviously a long way out but how do you arrive at Congrats Dendrite on this guidance except for emotion?

Raining again today in ATL area. Apperantly it's rains every day now here. All or nothing.

Yes! "Leave the leaves". If everyone would let at least a corner of their yard stay "messy", it would be so much better for fireflies (butterflies, moths...). We manicure and spray way too much to worship the lawn gods.

And Monday next week . Congrats Dendy again then

This is just my observation, but the AI stuff (NCAR) seems to over do convection is marginal environments. It's almost like there aren't enough events in it's database.

So glad you guys broke free from the Post. You were literally the only reason to keep the subscription. I'm loving the app, so much great information in a single spot. Congrats! (and stop being a stranger around here!)

Probably cooked for any severe weather potential here on Thursday. Going to have widespread clouds with the warm front moving through and we won't have time to really destabilize during the afternoon. Plus with poor lapse rates and a weakly uncapped airmass, we'll remain heavy in the clouds with pop up showers. Could be interesting though just off to the west, particularly in the lower Hudson Valley. May have to watch Fairfield County though

Big update coming soon is adding ERA5 analysis GIF loops for SFC/P-type/Thickness for all storms in the winter storm archive. This will be a major addition to the site and will take several months to complete but some will be up shortly. Most likely these will be dark mode with a northeast and US view.

I recently did maps and updated the site for all these storms. March 1960, two Feb 1969 storms, Dec 1992, Apr 1983 and others. Just finished Boxing Day Dec 1947 snowstorm last night. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/historic-storms

That data set seems to have a great deal of -PDO warm ENSO events, which may explain the curious QPF deficit. Super events were very dry over the interior, implying a coastal storm track...small sample size, I know.