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Starting to roar out there.

That squall line means business, moving through with heavy windswept rain. Don't let the radar fool you.

That line they’re talking about must be the one from Long Branch to Toms River. It doesn’t look as bad as what’s passed but that has to be it.

next 1-2 hours is the main show

11,600 outages now this is insane

I've bumped this post, because the original embedded tweets calling for a PNA+ in December were deleted (not by @stadiumwave). It's ok to be wrong in a field where there are no crystal balls and variables typically have low coefficients of determination. These low coefficients of determination increase complexity and raise risks of oversimplification. Error is inescapable. It's also ok to change one's thinking. Indeed, the information on how one's thinking evolves can provide insight and also learning opportunities. IMO, it's not ok to simply delete posts to obscure one's errors. Indeed, it is bad practice. That someone I greatly respect makes this bad practice all the more disappointing. Although the original post is gone, at least some people remember that the prediction made (and one I questioned here) was for a predominantly positive PNA in December. The argument was that the base state did not favor a PNA-. Probably not too surprisingly, the poster's question was ignored. Responding to it would have acknowledged the original position that apparently was deleted.

A pretty impressive satellite presentation this morning and you can see some embedded areas of convection which have contributed to some locally stronger gusts. Noticing some breaks too just to our southwest, so something to watch as we move through the next 3-4 hours.

Think the worst has already passed us.

Wind is here gusting 30-40 ish

:crap:

It’s here in CT. Gonna be a huge couple hours in the state

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 1028 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 191900- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk- Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 1028 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025 A line of showers with gusty winds will be moving across the area late this morning into early afternoon. This will likely be the time when the strongest gusts of the day occur. Gusts will be mostly 40-55 mph, but some areas will see gusts around 60 mph. Gusts up to 70 mph will be possible across Long Island and coastal Connecticut.

I think January 2022 is a decent analog, but the cold will likely be delayed a bit relative to that month.

I sure hope not. Don't need the over excessive salting again.

Looks like radar filling in, Could be a snow showery day after losing all of our snow,

55 mph now

Holy cow! 62F now at BTV, an astounding 13F above the 130-year-old daily record high.

ENSO thread has officially entered last rites overnight.

Picked up 0.39”

Yup, it all adds up.

Just ripped a pretty solid gust here a few minutes ago. I love how every now and then you can hear what sounds like a freight train

The waves here at the state park have to be 8 feet tall right now

And if course the tide gauges are now responding to the big up tick in winds and there rising again

...or when they have 4 little kids and are desperately trying to complete a 36 page winter outlook

Big winds here-delayed not denied