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We got low end mid week duster and a fantasy range overrunning setup to track, neither looks major but could be worse

round 2 on gfs

And that fast, first flakes.

WB 6Z GFS for next Sunday.

Radar just filled in over mby in a matter of 15 minutes. Should start to see some flakes here and to my west very soon. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

A usual you are ignoring the evidence I posted or don't understand. Lets make it simple. Here is the Avondale USCRN station, our best local station, and the Philadelphia Airport (PHL). Since its start-up, Avondale has warmed at .125F per year or 1.25F per decade. Over the same period, PHL has warmed by .113F per year or 1.13 per decade. The same numbers are in the table I posted. The table shows similar results for the 12 DEOS stations, KMQS, Phoenixville etc. All warming at a similar rate as PHL. Clear and overwhelming evidence that Chester county is warming at the same rate as the Philadelphia Airport.

If only… maybe the rap can sniff something out for the continued trends. The 6z suite definitely brought this a fair bit west across the board

Everything on Rap from this morning thru Monday.

Think this is looking like a 3-5” event SE of 84 and SOP

06 gfs brings the goods next weekend

9z RAP is a major hit for Sunday

Picked up an inch of snow and still snowing nickel sized flakes a nice surprise.

It’s round two that I’ll need to perform

snowing good, everything coated good flake size. hopefully get an inch or so from this first one

Big bump west on the GEFS

Snow and 28F. Accumulating on all surfaces. Nice to see snow again. Last snow was January 4th.

Pulling a Feb 5 2016 out of the hat Still cautiously optimistic on a moderate event Canada ftw

I think we are very much back in the ball game. Going to have to play a little catch up with my forecast but NAM 3km now showing a dusting for all and 1-3” for Haywood, Henderson, & Transylvania. These overrunning events are always poorly modeled, especially for WNC.

Just woke up to a healthy 1” to maybe 1.5” inch of snow. Roads are covered. Mix of rain and snow currently. Nice surprise Clark.

6z GFS and ensembles show a significant improvement in the amount of moisture across the entire state.

Round 1 should get you an inch

Last 4 runs of the goofus. More downstream ridging and curling in of that vortmax

The second I head to DCL the snow rockets back toward DC? Hate to see it

I've been pretty adamant about the first phase 8 attempt being a fraud regardless of what the RMM charts had shown. Now, given the renewed MJO... Which still looks quite good to me for a real run at phase 8 this time on latest guidance btw... I'm more bullish on this run being more successful, but we'll see of course. Therefore, I believe the gefs is displaying the more plausible route forward. It's also slower with the MJO wave, which I believe would actually be the case. I think some of the RMM charts (EPS) posted lately are rushing it too much. Look towards the beginning of Feb or shortly thereafter for that potential IMO. This would support the idea of an energized Aleutian low/+PNA outcome such as the gefs is displaying. In addition, only one cluster on the extended range 00z EPS run from last night. So that means they're not helpful in showing different options in the extended this run. However, the one cluster that there is, does look to support the same idea also. Moreso than the smoothed out mean would suggest.