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Reflectivity

Yeah this will start showing up towards the end of February.

Could be. We were trying to figure out yesterday when we took our last measurement. I was so dead tired from snow plowing that I might have missed the last couple inches

New forecasts now confirm a Stratospheric Warming event in early-mid February, causing a Polar Vortex split and collapse. The latest predictions show a breakdown of the polar circulation, with a prolonged colder weather pattern across North America and parts of Europe, potentially lasting into early spring. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-collapse-february-2026-stratospheric-warming-forecast-winter-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Started obs thread

I think a lot of people have Helen PTSD. I think thats why everyone went crazy at the grocery stores last week.

I’ll do the honors

Hoping the 6z euro is out to lunch for the triangle and just struggling with banding. Surely it won’t beat the crap out of all the short range guidance on totals.

Delete

Or how about the 12/26 storm that gave us a mix & didn’t trend south. That one was congrats NYC & southern NE. How did that seasonal trend work out @mitchnick ?

Yeah most likely. .

Stay safe

Since we are basically at nowcast time, are we gonna have a storm obs thread started?

Later in the 11-15 day we develop some western troughing. But the -NAO is on roids and we have confluence to our northeast. So that probably means shrederola. Maybe at times we can try to squeeze in some overrunning if timed right.

Will stopped posting….

We do that all the time. For some, most of the time.

What are they a day behind!? [emoji23]

-0.7 was the low Should stay in single digits for high here

This is 10/1 also .

Until this changes, we are going to remain largely cursed with respect to east coast phasing IMHO.

Really …? Just like the storm last weekend “knew” to stay to our south …. But then became congrats Boston & Toronto? How was that for a seasonal trend? Let’s see how this one plays out.

Sunrise. 8°.

Last storm was a way around that due to the extreme nature of the airmass...but it wasn't a big, phased coastal until it got beyond us.

I think at this point noon - 1 is probably a good call, but I would just watch radar and wait for the snow to reach the ground. HRRR is struggling with the radar depiction, even when it initializes with the current radar. You can see below it initializes with the current radar: But loses it in the next frames.

RIP