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Yep

I don't put too much stock in the GFS-AI, but it's showing snow and ice for Friday 12/26: >0.5 liquid with surface temps at or below freezing NYC north throughout the event. It has hinted at this wintry outcome for several cycles. There is a little support amongst the ensembles, particularly the ECM suite, but the majority of mid-range guidance takes the boundary well north of us, favoring NNE for wintry precip.

Gfs coming in south with a nice press for the 27th

A lot of our stinkers in recent years have been Februaries that are no shows. 2017, 2020, and 2023 had multiple 70 degree days and in the latter example an 80+ day.

Maps?

GFS solid for most

This forum is the best of any of them. Everyone gives sound reasoning & terrific discussion as to why. Everyone is welcoming & helps others learn. There is no negativity & winter cancel thankfully. Yeah the pattern has not been the best for snow in TN but when has there ever been a snowy December in TN? Yet many places have had a lot of snow already. As Carver said it’s been a well below average December. Many days have been like a January day. December has been a win in my book. It’s felt like Christmas! I do hope everyone is having a great Christmas season & wish everyone a Merry Christmas!

That's it. Pound the rock. Throw it to Zay. Play solid D. Win or go the fuck home.

Lamar so fragile. Pretty sure Mahomes would be playing with a tweak to his back. Whatever. LFG Huntley!

February is the snowiest month in DC on average is it not? It’s not even January what is this lol

The WPC maps have <10% probability for 2" of snow in the far northern reaches of the OKX forecast area, including elevations above 1000ft. That should have nothing to do with "white rain." Those areas might not get 2" of snow. But I would like to know what the basis is for assigning a probability of less than 1 in 10 chance.

Other than the usual weird jump by the NAM, so far 0z looks similar to previous cycles. Changes look like noise to me... Still looks like a coating to 3" or so from the south coasts to far northern suburbs with a ragged and unpredictable gradient... The variable and inconsistent geographic distribution of snowfall between models suggests a low probability forecast. Model changes are being driven by very minor differences in vorticity and micro-short-waves. The WRF-NSSL is the weenie model of 0z with 3-5" right through the NYC metro. Unlikely but probably not impossible.

Some people aren't very good students of history, it appears. How many times do predictions of things like "food insecurity" have to be wrong in order for people to learn? Sorry but alarmism like this deservers to be mocked. It certainly doesn't help the cause any.

Agree on the Jan 15-Feb 1 timeframe.

Best of both worlds.

They are probably favoring in the white rain due to warmer temperatures at the onset, which will lead to minimal accumulation in the urban zones of the tri state area. Either way, that should make for a solid 1-3” further inland

Private forecast company out of the Midwest. Indiana I believe. Yes, legit. They were spot on last year with their calls of cold despite models when they were trying to break down the cold. But past performance is....

I would say he's fairly knowledgable, but he leans colder often. Definitely not weenie status though.

He also mentioned a lot about convections, but I don't know anything about that, so hopefully somebody more knowledgable can explain

Lol. Ww still hsve Pit2 in Maine. As ling as we still have that, I'm fine.

Who is Bamwx. Is he legit?

New video this evening from BAMWx (see link below) (I haven’t watched it yet)(don’t know why it shows twice but couldn’t fix it) Summary from @bncho Here were my main takeaways from this video: 1. Dec 29-31 will trend colder, like it has been for the past few days. 2. He thinks there'll be a big storm favoring NE for the first week of January; his top analogs like 1996 and 2000 3. Somewhere between the end of Dec and the start of Jan, he thinks that WWBs will happen, causing: - the death of La Nina - -EPO by early Jan, but no +PNA - MJO to move very quickly and finally get unstuck thru phases 2, 3, 4, etc., finally getting back into 7 by around Jan 15 (just in time for prime climo) 4. He likes the fact that the PV is on our side of the hemisphere, and he thinks it'll stay there 5. The models are not seeing the cold in the long-range TL;DR: BAM WX believes that there will be a prolonged period of cold and stormy weather from Jan 15 to Feb 1. The first two weeks of January will likely offer shots of cold, but with relaxations in between.

925 looks cold enough for a lot of the region, so if there's decent growth and some consistency with halfway decent rates, it should be okay.

We begin battling the increasing sun angle tomorrow.