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not really

300+ hours out for late March on an operational model

Chicago has a shot at yet another top 10 warmest March if what Ben Noll is showing ends up transpiring (which I don’t see why it wouldn’t tbh).

Is Roger ok? He hasn’t been on since Feb 26th

because the ensemble means show basically the same colder pattern and temps down the road

you literally just said the warmth will finally be winning the battle in the ENSO thread, are you okay in the head?

why are you paying any mind to 300+ hour OP guidance in the first place? they’ve been struggling inside of 72 hours as of late, lmao

The models handle the temps better than the individual storms - whole point is winter cold will continue through March at least because of the strat warming event. Anyone expecting to see 70's past this week in March north of the Mason Dixon line is wrong IMO

Probably a few chances but so far nothing has gotten inside 7 days really.

I remember seeing the 40-50 dbz echoes on the doorstep and thinking it was definitely sleet. Then we got monster hooked-dendrite aggies pounding for a couple hours. We got 6” per hour in ORH at the peak. Not quite the 8” per hour stuff just northeast of us but pretty insane regardless.

ABSOLUTELY.

Inside 400 hours, nice. What could go wrong?

There will be a few chances. Yesterday full Mast ahead…today done lol. A fickle model hugging crew.

All springs do this ... possible exceptions being 2010 maybe 2012? otherwise, they never get warm and stay warm. They always lube you up with massages for 2 days, then pour ice water down your pants before running out the back door.

NYC and the coast of NE are likely done, but inland and central and northern NE not likely done

I’m locking in 3/24 on euro.

Good afternoon discussion from LWX KEY MESSAGE 2... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible west of I-95 Wednesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes through. A significant drop in temperatures and gusty winds will accompany the front Thursday. Still monitoring the progression of a deep digging positively northern stream trough out of the Great Lakes and it`s associated strong cold front which looks to cross the area during the late Wednesday into Thursday timeframe. Meanwhile, southern stream energy will be lifting northward ahead of the boundary Wednesday afternoon and evening. SPC currently has a Slight Risk (Level 2 out 5) west of a line from from Frederick/Hagerstown, MD southwest toward Strasburg/Harrisonburg/Monterey, VA. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) east of these areas (including both the DC/Baltimore metros) with a focus mainly west of I-95. The primary threat with storms would be wind and locally heavy rainfall. Secondary threats would include an isolated tornado given the increased shear/helicity and large hail with dry air aloft. CSU probabilities remain between 15 to 30 percent for all severe hazards areawide while NSSL/NCAR probs generally focus on areas, mainly west of US-15 and in particularly west of the Blue Ridge. CIPS probabilities remain less than 10 percent for this event. Plenty of uncertainty remain in regards to the severe weather threat Wednesday into Thursday. Timing will be important along with cloud cover. 6z/12z model soundings from KCHO, KIAD, and KHGR all have hints of a capping inversion which could squander convective development. The question is to if the cap breaks and to when it happens with a focus west of Frederick, MD down toward the I-66/US- 50 corridor and points west per the latest CAM guidance. One or two strong storms could fire within the warm sector Wednesday afternoon along a lead shortwave trough out ahead of the cold frontal boundary. Any of these storms could become severe (i.e either multicellular clusters or supercells) given the added shear and instability to work with. Confidence drops off with the severe threat along the immediate cold front given the projected timing late evening into the overnight period. Even with that said, a gusty line of shower could exist Wednesday night into Thursday as the front pushes through. The severe threat diminishes Thursday as the front pushes through. Expect any residual moisture over the mountains to change to snow with coating to 1" expected on grassy/elevated surfaces.

bump.

Scenes around Washington Square Park today.

Crappy spring ahead

Snow is done

66

I'm referring to the Eric Fisher's and Ryan Hanrahans of the platform. Clowns gonna clown on there, but you would think a Met would keep it real.

Lucy is warming up!