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Local mets are NOT impressed with this. Most mentioning using broom for your car on Sunday morning in Boston.

There should be a little more after that. Still a few more frames of snow. Bncho jumped the gun a little

You f’n should be. You’re a beggar now…take what you can get..And appreciate. You at rock bottom bro..the last 3-4 yrs have taken you down to humble levels.

Operational Gfs and 12z Euro sure give more hope than their ensembles.

<<< HALL OF SHAME DECEMBER SNOWFALLS >>> (with rest of seasons) Winter ____ OCT _NOV _DEC _JAN _FEB _MAR _APR ___ TOTAL 1877-78 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.0 __ 6.1 __ 2.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ _ 8.1 _ 1882-83 ___ 0.0 _14.0 ___ 0.0 __ 9.4 __10.2 _ 10.0 __0.5 _ _ 44.1 _ 1891-92 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.0 __12.2 __ 0.1 __12.0 __ 1.0 _ _ 25.3 _ 2006-07 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 2.6 __ 3.8 __ 6.0 __ Tr _ _12.4 _ 2011-12 ___ 2.9 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 4.3 __ 0.2 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ __ 7.4 _ 1885-86 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___13.5 __ 5.3 __ 1,.0 __ 1.0 _ _ 20.8 _ 1888-89 ___ 0.0 __ 1.5 __ Tr ___ 4.0 __ 7.0 __ 4.0 __ 0.0 _ _ 16.5 _ 1895-96 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 3.0 __ 9.5 __30.5 __3.0 _ _ 46.0 _ 1936-37 ___ Tr ___ 3.2 ___Tr ___ 6.5 __ 3.4 __ 2.5 __ Tr __ _ 15.6 _ 1943-44 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 4.8 __ 7.7 __ 4.8 __ 6.5 _ _ 23.8 _ 1953-54 ___ 0.0 __ 2.2 __ Tr ___12.7 __ 0.5 __ 0.1 __ 0.3 __ _ 15.8 _ 1965-66 ___ Tr ___ 0.0 __ Tr __ 11.6 __ 9.8 __ Tr ___ 0.0 _ _ 21.4 _ 1971-72 ___ 0.0 ___ Tr ___ Tr ___2.8 _ 17.8 __ 2.3 __ Tr __ _ 22.9 _ 1972-73 ___ Tr ___ Tr ___ Tr ____ 1.8 __ 0.8 __ 0.2 __ Tr __ __2.8 _ 1994-95 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 0.2 __11.6 __ Tr __ Tr ___ _ 11.8 _ 1996-97 ___ 0.0 __ 0.1 __ Tr ___ 4.4 __ 3.8 __ 1.7 __ Tr __ _ 10.0 _ 1997-98 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 0.5 __ 0.0 __ 5.0 __ 0.0 _ __ 5.5 _ 1999-2000_ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 9.5 __ 5.2 __ 0.4 __ 1.2 _ _ 16.3 _ 2001-02 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 3.5 ___Tr ___ Tr ___ Tr __ __ 3.5 _ 2015-16 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ Tr ___27.9 __ 4.0 __0.9 __ Tr __ _ 32.8 _ 2018-19 ___ 0.0 __ 6.4 __ Tr ___ 1.1 ___ 2.6 _ 10.4 __ 0.0 _ _ 20.5 _ 2022-23 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 2.2 ___0.1 __ 0.0 _ _ 2.3 _ 2023-24 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ 2.3 __ 5.2 ___ Tr __ 0.0 _ _ 7.5 _ 1899-1900_ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.1 ___ 1.0 __ 6.6 __ 5.9 __ Tr __ _ 13.6 _ 1900-01 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.1 __ 2.0 __ 7.0 __ Tr ___ 0.0 _ __ 9.1 _ 1931-32 ___ 0.0 ___2.0 ___0.1 ___0.8 __ 1.8 __ 0.6 __ Tr _ __ 5.3 _ 1954-55 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.1 ___ 2.6 __ 5.2 __ 3.6 _ 0.0 __ _11.5 _ 1974-75 ___ 0.0 __ 0.1 __ 0.1 __ 2.0 __10.6 __ 0.3 __ Tr ___ _ 13.1 _ 2021-22 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.2 __15.3 __ 2.0 __ 0.4 __ 0.0 _ _ 17.9 _ 1906-07 ___ 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 0.3 __11.0 _ 21.8 __13.3 __ 5.8 _ _ 53.2 _ 1913-14 ____0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.3 __ 1.3 __17.4 __21.5 __ Tr __ _ 40.5 _ 1918-19 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.3 __ 0.3 __ 0.5 __ 2.7 __ Tr __ __3.8 _ 1941-42 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.3 __ 6.4 __ 1.9 __ 0.5 __ 2.2 _ _ 11.3 _ 1988-89 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.3 __ 5.0 __ 0.3 __ 2.5 __0.0 _ __ 8.1 _ 1977-78 ___ 0.0 __ 0.2 __ 0.4__20.3 _23.0 __6.8 __ Tr __ _ 50.7 _ 1992-93 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.4 __ 1.5 _ 10.7 _11.9 __ 0.0 _ _ 24.5 _ 2012-13 ___ 0.0 __ 4.7 __ 0.4 __ 1.5 __12.2 __ 7.3 __ 0.0 _ _ 26.1 _ 1978-79 ___ 0.0 __ 2.2 __ 0.5 __ 6.6 _20.1 __ Tr ___ Tr ___ _ 29.4 _ 1986-87 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.6 __13.6 __ 7.0 __ 1.9 __ 0.0 _ _ 23.1 _ 1937-38 ___ Tr ___ 0.8 __ 0.7 __ 6.5 __ Tr ___ 0.7 __ 6.4 __ _15.1 _ 1991-92 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.7 __ 1.5 ___ 1.0 __ 9.4 __ Tr __ _ 12.6 _ 1956-57 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.9 __ 8.9 __ 7.0 __ 2.6 __ 2.5 _ _ 21.9 _ 1985-86 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 0.9 __ 2.2 __ 9.9 __ Tr ___ Tr __ _ 13.0 _ 1875-76 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 1.5 __ 12.5 __ 3.8 __ 0.0 _ _ 18.8 _ 1905-06 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 1.0 __ 1.5 __ 6.0 __ 11.5 __ Tr _ _ 20.0 _ 1934-35 ___ Tr ___ Tr ____1.0 __23.6 __ 7.2 __ 2.0 __ Tr _ _ 33.8 _ 2014-15 ___ 0.0 __ 0.2 __ 1.0 __16.9 _ 13.6 _18.6 __ 0.0 _ _ 50.3 _ 1881-82 ___ 0.0 __ Tr ___ 1.3 __ 17.5 __ 9.3 __ 2.8 __ 0.5 _ _ 31.4 _ 1946-47 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___1.3 __ 5.5 __ 17.7 __ 6.1 __ Tr __ _ 30.6 _ 1949-50 ___ 0.0 __ 0.5 __ 1.3 ___ 0.4 __ 8.5 __ 1.4 __ 1.9 __ _14.0 _ 1989-90 ___ 0.0 __ 4.7 __ 1.4 __ 1.8 __ 1.8 ___ 3.1 __ 0.6 _ _ 13.4 _ 1898-99 ___ 0.0 __19.0 __ 1.5 __ 5.3 __25.3 __4.8 __ 0.0 _ _ 55.9 _ __________________________ From this arbitrary cutoff at 1.5" for Dec snow, there are 52 (of 156) winter seasons where Dec snow is less than 1.5" and of those, 30 had no snow or a trace amount. A few of those cases had significant snow before December, notably 1882-83 and 1898-99. So there may have been snow on the ground for the first portion of some of these futile Decembers. A few were quite cold or even very cold (1989), so that small amounts of snow would have persisted longer. The interesting thing here is the frequency of snow-free Decembers (about one in five) and low-snowfall cases expanding that to one in three, so almost a normal feature of the climate. the Dec average snowfall is clearly influenced by a few heavy falls such as 1947, and the median is probably lower than the mean. Also interesting is a significant number of very good snowfall winters following on, such as 1898-1899, 2014-2015, 1977-1978, and 1913-14. The median seasonal snowfall after a hall of shame December is 16.0" which shows that a poor December is often an indicator of a poor winter, but there are plenty of exceptions to inspire some optimism.

My south trend was sarcastic. I'm in Northern MD where I'm expecting 3 flurries tomorrow night lol

Heartbreak Mo-del Runs .

The spacing, graphics, and grammar on this site raise the rush of epileptic seizures. .

I mean for my area. Think I’m a little north of the good stuff.

They can have it if I get it as depicted.

Well, it's Friday. Here is a bonus...Take a look at the run-to-run change when the slp (spinning endlessly off of Cali) doesn't feed back. Then take a look at the actually 500 map. There is the Alaska block, and the same persistent pattern(hard to break) that we have seen for a few weeks. The PNA flips positive. Should be a good run the rest of the way here in fantasy land.

You know what? I wouldn't even care if they got more...it would be a frickin' White Christmas!!

Muting as we thought…it’s the tenor this year so far. We take.

South trolling will hereby met with north trolling so watch it brother!!!

2 hours of flurries/lt snow but no accums. Was hoping to squeeze .2 to hit 7" for the month but the minor accum stuff ended up south of me by 20 miles. It was nice dendrites for a while so SnowTV looked pretty good for a bit

On both NAMs, at least at the height of the storm for areas snowing decently, omega (lift) values are in the robust -10 to -15 ubar/sec in the saturated DGZ, so we should see good supersaturation occur and decent dendrite growth for ratios above 10:1. It's why my guesstimate is for ~4" at my house vs. the 3.3" forecast by the NWS.

OMG

Actually it’s a 5 day anomaly so probably 34/20 right at the coast.

Plenty of time for a south trend

DT is all in has the 4" line roughly through Sellersville

Hoping to avoid to much of a delayed start with the rain as well as getting into that quasi stationary band that some mesos have showed. Should be a decent storm forum wide for most to get on the board

I think what we are not used to is having a more than decent cold air source. 500 maps can get wonky and sometimes not represent the surface w/ these. When that happens, it is really important to look at surface pressure. The mechanism(on that run) is in place to send the TPV south. It just got hung up. Still, that is a good run at this range. Cheers. Maybe I will come back for 0z.

Cross guidance improvement with a tick more kinked flow to our NE. Festive Sunday incoming…

Clipper energy transfer to the coast lift convergence northwest of the developing low then rapidly pull away to the east-northeast. Where the Convergence sets up before collapsing southeast and east will be the areas that get a quick 4-5”.

That is just a timing issue or that is a huge winter storm. As is, it is CAD city and Virginia gets hammered. The surface high slides a little bit too far ahead. If this were to get over the top, slider city. Very, very close. And just amazing given the torch that has been shown for days for Christmas. This is the GFS' second run w/ Christmas cold. Let's see if it can hold and get this inside of ten days.