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Even with the strong NE flow today the warm water temps and breaks of sun allowed North Central NJ temps this afternoon to reach 70

Deep mind still has two clusters but a big cluster south of eastern Long Island to Block Island. Seems to be a lot of members sort of stall and spin in that area before wobbling back northeast. Seems to be a decent consensus around that spot I think.

just once I want a storm like this shooting up the coast

Vort95 will have some thoughts for you i believe.

Feb 1998 actually had a huge snowstorm in southern OH and northern KY, but I dont think it was very widespread. Feb was the torchiest month of the 1997-98 winter while Dec was the torchiest month of the 1982-83 winter. Typically December is the warmest month in strong Ninos but 1997-98 proved that wrong. I just cringe everytime you guys wish for 1983. Absolutely the worst strong Nino of them all here. Although certainly some bad luck played a factor.

About 75-80 miles S of Chicago .Mostly cornfields.. Haha

It’s still uncertain to me how much wind the interior sees. You guys are gonna be wedged it’s gonna be pretty darn cool at the surface. So that’s gonna hold back some mixing there. It depends on the track and how strong this thing is.

Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 100 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS POLO HAS STRENGTHENED EVEN MORE... Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds in Hurricane Polo have increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure has dropped to 892 mb...26.34 inches. Polo is nearly stationary but is expected to move generally west-northwestward over the next couple of days. SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 101.5W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

If CFS is going off how NOAA is calculating it, that model output makes more sense. Interesting to see the difference as Cyclonicwx’s is closer to Australian BOM’s RONI measurement.

GFS/Canadian/Ukie Vs. Euro's - the HP location will have the final say IMO

One of those somewhat rare deals where interior has more wind issues than coast with this in terms of trees and lines out of a direction trees are not used to gusts from that direction.

And there’s your update Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 100 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS POLO HAS STRENGTHENED EVEN MORE... Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds in Hurricane Polo have increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure has dropped to 892 mb...26.34 inches. Polo is nearly stationary but is expected to move generally west-northwestward over the next couple of days. SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 101.5W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

Where are you located now?

Full moon too. Yes it would be ugly for the coasts.

yeah maybe 40-50 max gusts

EPS

It would cause outages, but it’s nothing we haven’t seen before in October when there still is leaves on the trees. At least on the coast. Obviously, inland it matters.

.79" today + 1.12" yesterday. No complaints!

yea there will be some damage especially in areas further west..the trees are pretty hardy in this region though. twigs and maybe some limbs possible with that.

Eps is further west

Eps is further west

0.06 here from some passing light showers. Benign pattern going forward so should dry out over the next 7-10 days.

M0.6" just off Academy Ave in Reisterstown as of 7am this morning.

40-60 mph gusts is a pretty big deal when you have fully leaves trees, especially when you're talking about a long-duration of those gusts. Summer thunderstorms which gust in that range for like 20 seconds knock down tree limbs and power lines

See it , hear it, feel it