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CMC is a nice paste bomb for the interior. I'm rooting for that.

I don't see why this would trend any better with the system tracking north....if anything it would probably trend towards less.

I'd sign for this right now

Not sure how much of the Aigfs is snow but if that's all rain with that track and the cold we've had for weeks that would be a he'll of a gut punch

With the primary jumping from Indianapolis to Wilmington

Canadian whiffs.

12z CMC comes in a little bit colder and has some ice around the I40 north area. This was actually the coldest run the Canadian has had in several runs, it usually does good at sniffing out the CAD, so this might lead to other models showing a colder solution as we get closer. Definitely an outlier at this point, but might not be too far off as far as the wedge placement looks.

Looks like the Hudson is almost completely full of ice even down to the city. https://www.portnywebcam.com/

I think 1-3" is higher confidence from the rt 2 corridor points northward....maybe coating to 2" south of there.

Negativity bias is real. People often assume that their "crystal ball" is clearer at longer lead times when adverse outcomes (e.g., lack of snowfall) are involved. Psychologically, people tend to give greater weight to negative outcomes than positive ones. Those threats appear clearer or more certain, because they generate stronger cognitive or emotional reaction. In reality, the extended range forecasts showing a bleak outcome for snowfall are no more or less likely to verify than those that show a lot of snowfall at similar ranges. Guidance beyond 10 days has a sharp falloff in skill. Having said that, the frequency of days with significant (6" or above) snowfall declines in New York City, especially after mid-March. Moreover, just over one-in-four years (26.8%) saw no measurable snowfall during February 15-28 but only 3.1% of years (1878, 1925, 2002, 2012, 2020) saw no measurable snowfall from February 15 to the end of snow season. At the current lead time, it is premature to assume that Winter 2025-2026 has seen its last measurable snowfall.

Hi all. Hope you had a good weekend. Next weekend looks tricky, but I remind some that only a few days ago this week looked warm, and we're now down to a 1ish day "warmup". Nooner CMC is what dreams are made of. Verbatim its a best case scenario, and not sure I believe, but really nice to look at. Antecedent cold is there but as NAO is on the rise, so will be the thermal boundary, so the souther secondary is the way to the white promise land, as critical layers recover and we lose less cold. At least we are pulling off another solid week of winter.

Canadian threads the needle. Barely

Yes!! Lol

GEFS and EPS actually in good agreement just outside of BM.

CMC is best case scenario....but its also the CMC. If the euro shifts south like it should based on ensembles...could be interesting

EURO OP went to shit with rain....EPS still outside BM.

Got woken up at 230am with a brutal migraine and ended up calling out of work (Thankfully non-operational shift). Is anyone else having headaches recently? I think the dryness is starting to crush my sinuses and hits at night. Might have to start back up a saline rinse regimine

12Z Canadian strong blocking - models are beginning to agree that this won't cut

NWS has a possible freezing rain to rain scenario as of now. Temps in the upper 30s Sunday. I was on the verge of giving up for the weekend... but latest CMC has almost perfect scenario for us. Its going to require a perfect track. UKie is similar to CMC with period of heavy snow.

Random ripper on the cmc. Low cuts to Ohio but transfers fast enough to keep us mostly snow.

I’m not sure his logic applies here. I guess if Reggie has a clue and it somehow shoots a ton of moisture in here, but in general that low track doesn’t argue for an overachiever. Ratios look decent though.

Thump to rain on the GFS.

Very cold low of -12.3 this morning. Second coldest low so far this season (few weeks ago it was -16.8).

I couldn’t care less about jacks. Just looking for 1-3

Sometimes you just need to look at the big picture, and you can use this gfs run as an example. You have a short wave approaching with low pressure approaching the Carolinas, but look at that bulge of warm air and ridging to the west. You’re also losing the high to the east. So all around you’re getting warm air advection pretty much surrounding this low and that short wave now is starting to attenuate because of that push-up warmth behind it. This is what I mean by not being in a good set up. Could it work, I guess if you really thread a needle, but all I’m trying to do is have people at least understand that this might not work out.