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One thing I’ve noted the last couple days is that the end of the op runs haven’t been looking like the ensemble means. This is @mitchnick’s anecdotal rule. Today there’s better similarity with non-GFS runs having a more or less favorable winter pattern for us D10-15.

Where’s the torch ?

Snow chances probably aren't very high(although this is literally the only period the model gives us snow). Nor have the chances of snow been high with the better look up top, legit cold in place and zero SE ridge. Its a crapshoot man. I bet we get some snow in the next 15 days, because that's how random this all is, models aren't very reliable at range, and ofc, the WDI!

I like early Feb...then flips warm while strat does it's thing.

Theoretically speaking, I agree....but I would be stunned if ends up solidly negative.

Lol….a big whoosh!

From the SE forum, Euro heading in the right direction.

12z euro. It's in the mid to long range and we've seen what the points look like but this is kind of what we want. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

That’s basically a 4 week window…and at peak climo for SNE that Cosgrove is predicting. He didn’t do too well last year with his ideas if I remember correctly? Or maybe I’m mistaken?

Someone with panels wanna find the big dog in the GEFS for Jan 16-17? Quite an influence on the average I imagine edit: can see it in the mean mslp with members lol. Looks like it even tucks a bit. 1004 at OBX, 996 just off Ocean City, then 989 off central NJ

Whatever, I'm reasonably confident we can get cold air by the latter half of the month. My top analogue is.....1985. I was only 4yo that winter living in Michigan so I have.no idea what it brought here. What I'm not reasonably confident is precip. The drought presses on for the next few weeks and I see no reason it lets up this month.

What I think would be fascinating is if someone developed a "Pattern Incoming Surety System" (PISS) Index to describe the certainty level associated with the 2 week pattern forecast. A variety of factors would go in the creation of PISS. How many ensembles are in support? What's the spread? Did it just pop up for a couple of model cycles, or hace the runs been dripping in and steadily increasing the flow of confidence as we approach? Less important, but still crucial: how do the higher res mesos compare to the short term ensemble depiction (kind of an initial conditions test). A 5 alarm PISS Index reading would be something like we saw in I believe January of 2016. Amazing pattern trending to locked in storm 10 days out. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Oh yeah yall can get hammered with a Miller A. It will ge nice when that pattern sets back in.

You damn right I do. Im an optimist even when the pattern is crappy. Seen it too many times. The pattern is volatile and honestly it's been like that for most of the season. No reason for that to change now. I hope your right about after the 10th. Many ensembles look to build the EPO ridge out west after that time period but as we've seen the ridge out west collapses...

Going to have to disagree with you on this one. First, I'm discussing the run verbatim. You used the 11-16 day average, so will I. Surface and 850 are decently AN verbatim. I don't believe the chances of snow are high at all.

Maybe I can get the outside Christmas decorations down before Memorial Day this year.

Pretty much

this is a SE ridge. I think what your showing is more of a split flow

And oh my gosh it still exists!! Someone once called it an abandoned amusement park, lol

Dusting of snow today. It’s snowed 7-8 times already this year

12Z Euro/GFS coldest low at Chicago 1/6-1/18: 22/30 12Z EPS/GEFS coldest low at Chicago 1/6-18: 22/25 Normal low 20-18 Not good for SE cold prospects. So, hopefully they’re going to turn out way too warm like 12/28-1/1 and earlier periods did. We’ll see. If not, it’s going to be very hard for the SE overall to get substantially cold before 1/20. Those 90 day bias maps had Chicago too warm by 4 F for the 11-15 fwiw:

Just a January thaw. We've been in a freeze since right after Thanksgiving. Its going to be ok...winter will return. Just look ahead at 5 days max dont get caught up in 2 weeks out. Enjoy the reload period.

FWIW even BAM isn’t 100 percent on board with the red flags he found.

Venture to this thread at your own risk. I am still positive towards mid month and the second half of Jan.