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ICON-EPS has one lonely captured member… this is an improvement from 12z, when it had none.

It may show one more crazy solution especially since the 18z run often is a weenie run

I agree.

Well - Just watched the brand new trailer for Pressure - about the meteorologist forecasting for D Day!!! Now that is the real deal. Kinda puts things in perspective!!!!

Closer

At this point it's almost comical how different it is considering we're a few days out from the potential event. I'd put good money on it backing off at 18Z, maybe not a full cave right away but it's fairly likely that it'll at least take a step back.

fixed.

This is the HECS thread

Expect 18z gfs to pull back and 0z to do the same for a full cave tomorrow.

ICON is a hair west. tickles the ccb closer to Cape, in case Ray was interested

Rgem and icon just shifted west. Not like the gfs but a good shift.

tomorrow?

beautiful deflection in front

18z RGEM improved aloft, for what little that happens to be worth

I mean it might as well go big before it finally comes back to earth and gives favored areas 3 of slush in the grass

Icon an rgem both ticked better. Ticks can be effective with this lead time still. We move

Babysteps!!

both Rgem and ICON get the IVT and both in almost the same spot offshore at 84

That would be hysterical.

0 nor'easters that hit here since jan 22. Even that one was more of a graze for the city proper, decent hit for LI though.

H5 looked a bit better for both the RGEM and ICON but still letting the surface get away from us before we could capture. Rather this than getting worse but a long ways to go to get anywhere near the GFS of even 06z, let alone 12z.

uptrend from the 18z icon

I don't know... I might get more snow from this that from yesterday's disaster

Decent rain here now. Looks to be a nice amount behind it.

Not going to lie I hope the GFS starts caving in a few minutes it basically has 0 support and keeps stringing us along.