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Work took me down Seaside today; I’ve never seen the Barnegat Bay frozen solid from shore to shore. Manasquan inlet up by Point was open water, but down by the Route 37 bridge it was frozen solid.

Please God let the HRRR be right it has me nearly reach 70 degrees tomorrow.

With the preliminary climate report for today 31/10 the scoring above is now confirmed. I will review the snowfall situation at end of tomorrow's data and score the snowfall forecasts separately just for fun. CPcantmeasuresnow had a perfect 17/3 going before the final report of 18/3 changed the results by one degree but still finished first in the temperature contest. Thanks for participating.

Snow depth still at 5.5-6.3”

Whatever the merits of this map, arctic cold does not arrive in the west from the central Pacific. It builds down from the Yukon.

And throw in a Norlun or two.

You're such a tease.

RGEM GFS and NAM have 1-2 inches just north of NYC tomorrow night

Ehhhh its progression makes sense sadly. Not saying its right but with this pattern we are relying solely on timing so a situation where the 50/50 is too progressive and we end up without any cold at all is possible. Though I guess it's a less damning storm in terms of PSU's climate change book if that happens.

We need like weekly 1” rain events for a couple months and then a juicy thunderstorm season. Drought just won’t quit us…

It’s an ugly run but we wouldn’t trust the GFS if it showed a snowstorm at hr 144 so why trust it now?

Check out the other thread. Reason for some optimism.

It’s pretty obvious at this point that we’re gonna need to wait at least a week or two for a snowstorm. We’re due for a late season triple phaser anyway.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A deep Pacific trof is expected to spawn low pres E of the Rockies by Sat, then track it across the Southeast and offshore by Mon, potentially passing close enough to impact the local area. The modeling has been consistent with the general idea of the storm, but there remains a high amount of uncertainty with the details. Most of the data suggests a W to E, or SW to NE type track, not making a big hook up the coast. The arctic air thus far looks limited, so this could be a sys with a lot of mixed pcpn and rain, with a decent freezing rain threat inland if the low tracks to the S and the flow remains backed at the sfc. Too far out to have confidence in the details, and with the AIGFS consistently S of the area, it could end up being just a glancing blow or nothing at all. Still, with the multi-model support, the NBM is producing a 60-70 pop for the event. Stuck with the NBM for the fcst, but of all the fields the temps in particular may be much too high for the event if the flow remains backed and CAD occurs

You did but reading between your posts were thinking north of 90

Oh great!

I'm interested in his track record. Anyone can put up a .WX on social media, create sites, or apps and "forecast." And, models and ensembles have virtually no skill at the lead time involved. Finally, there's no verification of past claims. The reason I ask, is because he is wrong when it comes to early spring (the transitional period) and Greenland blocking. For both the first and second halves of March (late winter/eaely spring transition), Greenland blocking results in cooler conditions in the East. Getting the basics wrong is a red flag. I am not suggesting right now that March will be cold or warm. I am focusing on the narrower point that Greenland blocking leads to a colder March outcome, not a warmer one.

If it’s ugly it’s probably right

Lets see if it holds, but for now it looks like the last week or so of the month could be cold, and hopefully not dry. Sucks we have had this glacier otg for 16 days with historic cold and no fucking precip.

Many a good to great winter was built on the 2-6" clippahs

Wave timing is terrible. There is no block so the vortex moving though the (nearly) 50/50 region is exiting and with that the surface HP is sliding off the coast.

Boring weather followed by a rain threat Monday…. Really thought things were gonna be different after the January storm

I heard it's like basically Florida down there

What a solid winter…this is excellent.

There's like three weeks left in February. Save a post like this for Feb 20th or later at least.