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Yeah, the La Ninas have been getting weaker following super El Niños since the early 1970s. This past La Niña was the weakest on record following the 2023-2024 super El Niño. Also the first time that Nino 1+2 didn’t fully cool off between super El Niño events. This lead to the more Nino-like December 2024 with the record +PNA. While the STJ and Nino 1+2 warming was relatively weak vs the Northern Stream, the Gulf Coast got an historic snowstorm in January 2025. Super El Niño ONI and the lowest ONI in the years following NDJ 72…..+2.1 NDJ 73……-2.0 NDJ 82…….+2.2 NDJ 84…….-1.1 NDJ 97…..+2.4 NDJ 99…..-1.7 NDJ 15……+2.8 NDJ 17…..-0.9 NDJ 23…..+2.1 NDJ 25…..-0.5

Yeah. I just noticed that too. Weird

NAM looks weird with zero storms anywhere. Seems alone in that.

71 for the low again. 04” of rain yesterday. As soon as it hit cars or pavement it dried right up. Last 2 storms not much rain at all.

Multiple record highs on Thursday with a drought upgrade across the area. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 236 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 97 DEGREES THURSDAY, JUNE 11 AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 DEGREES, LAST SET IN 2000. RECORDS FOR THE NEWARK NJ AREA GO BACK TO 1931. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 234 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 96 DEGREES THURSDAY, JUNE 11 AT LAGUARDIA AIRPORT. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 96 DEGREES, SET IN 1984. RECORDS FOR THE LAGUARDIA NY AREA GO BACK TO 1939. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 231 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 95 DEGREES THURSDAY, JUNE 11 AT JOHN F. KENNEDY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 93 DEGREES, SET IN 1984. RECORDS FOR THE KENNEDY NY AREA GO BACK TO 1948. In New Jersey, severe drought expanded across much of the northern portion of the state and into New York and eastern Pennsylvania. Abnormally dry conditions expanded across southeastern New York, while moderate drought expanded in southern Connecticut and western Massachusetts. Severe drought also expanded across eastern Massachusetts, eastern Rhode Island, and portions of eastern Maryland. Extreme drought was introduced in southern New Jersey and expanded into Delaware and eastern Maryland. A combination of short- and long-term drought is affecting agriculture as well as groundwater and surface water resources throughout the region.

It's interesting that the QBO has swung wildly every year this decade: 2020-21: solid +QBO 2021-22: solid -QBO 2022-23: solid +QBO 2023-24: solid -QBO 2024-25: solid +QBO 2025-26: solid -QBO 2026-27: solid +QBO?

Yesterday was trash night, and the 50mph gusts blew plenty of cardboard and plastic garbage into the middle of the street and into my yard!

We were hoping that cell would maintain as it went southeast but it weakened some.

Just a quick shower last evening. The NAM says no worries of any storms until possible late Sunday. I thought today was the best day for storms. Bummer

I didn't know that MJO812 golfed.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 410 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056-058-130815- Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset- Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry- Schuylkill- 410 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible late this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters, please follow normal reporting procedures.

Who said Boston's a big city (I kid)

Garden variety sleeping storms imby, nice to see IL adding to our tor numbers

Video - Certainly could have gotten closer for better shots, but didn’t care to. Was a beautiful storm to watch.

Good lord what great news to wake up to. Will support right away. Glad you all are free from there.

December 2004?

Wxwiiz mad he missed this??? CoastalWx proby just MEH! LOL. Look what happened Thu just over the border in Pauling NY. Hail up to 2" in diameter. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1E8jBs32e1/ Video of hailfall: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=999500782484311 Serious wind damage right over the CT border in Quaker Hill NY. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1TsM5ejxkj/ NW flow delivers! The LTG plot reminded me of July 10, 1989 a little. Also, June 20, 1995. See here: https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/remembering-the-1995-hail-storm/16546/

And here we have yet another factor that misleads. Bad data and using a single point!

There are 4 types of drought: - meteorological - agricultural - hydrological - socioeconomic All go into the drought status monitor we see, but it can me misleading. For instance, two of the factors have nothing to w/ actual precip. Agricultural and socioeconomic deal primarily w/ land/water management (or the lack of) and demand over time from increase population/infrastructure (data centers anyone?). And it goes one step further within the categories. You can have plenty of rainfall, but a lack of snowfall, so the reservoirs and lakes are full and water table high, but snowpack is below avg. And keep in mind, the current U.S. Drought Monitor we look at weekly w/ its current standards and guidelines did not exist prior to 2000. So that is not long enough to determine trends either way. What we call drought and how we measure/categorize it has changed over time as well. From my observations long-term, the U.S Drought Monitor has a tendency to overdo it, and it is misreading b/c most ppl just think lack of precip for drought, when it is much more complex than that.

MSM cherry-picking again. Sure you have svr drought SE NH and ern MA, but that is just one local area. Take a look at the drought status 3 months ago compare to this week for the NEUS and Mid-Atlantic (attached). Overall improvement for the NEUS and Mid-Atlantic. A large area of svr drought is gone in NNE. Yet you get ppl just focused on one small area, not telling you the larger picture. SE NH and ern MA do not exist isolated. Watersheds flow into this region, and if adjacent watersheds in decent shape for precip, then that mitigates things downstream. The term "drought" is treated as singular and simple term. It's not like that at all. But some never let the details (or key facts) get in the way of a particular narrative (all gloom and doom and the end is nigh). The MSM narrative is to push drought all the time, as if it never should occur, any that occurs is unusual, and we can't handle it as society, never mind it is just one more thing to hype to scarce the public for ratings. Drought exits in the U.S 10-15% of time on avg, and it waxes and wanes in irregular cycles. This is not cause for alarm in itself. The NEUS and Mid-Atlantic have not had a multi-year drought since the 1960s. How is that possible if droughts are getting worse w/ time everywhere? Short-term droughts are common and par for the course. If you want to see a deep dive and analysis about how drought conditions and declarations are misused and abused, take a look here about conditions in WA currently. The morale here is that there is more to the story. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-is-no-drought-emergency-in.html https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2026/05/why-washington-drought-emergency-should.html

You do realize that cooler can mean a lot of tstms and SVR!

Split the upright here. Storms to my N, S, E, w. Just a shower here. 0.06. Did see some nice lightning though

Are those natural to your neighborhood or did you plant those?

Good that you noted the satellite presentation. One thing that *really* stands out to me and is atypical for a svr wx day here -- the storms had zero anvil-level flow. No glaciated anvils spread out anywhere upwind or downwind of the updrafts! It's just a series of "updraft puffs," so to speak! So upper-level winds were lacking as well. No "venting" of the updrafts, not good for sustained storms. This perhaps explains a lot why w/ such high CAPE the storms failed to realize their full potential! I attached a VIS GIF loop from 2130z to 2330z. Also, you can clearly see how outflow dominated the storms were almost from the start. And look at the high clouds over the Delmarva. Moving S? The ridge axis at 250 mb at 00z extended from about BGM to CAE. You don't want ridging aloft directly over the area of interest for svr wx! This also explained why the storms had no spreading anvils. So yet another item to throw in that messed things up! Yet many wind reports, so it wasn't a bust in terms of the slight risk, just some details were off, like lacking a lot LTG and more outflow dominant that you would expect. Actually, a pretty fascinating case looking at the details, and why things did what they did. It's important to look at why things fail in expectations, not just why things exceed expectations in fcsts!

This is from Kouts