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Huge flakes in monmouth co .

1.5" here at 2am... Lighter intensity now.

They do this for the same reason that chatGPT hallucinates if you don't phrase the prompt correctly. AI is very good at things like 500mb patterns that are relatively linear and confined to specific modes that have been thoroughly sampled in ERA5. It is not good at all at things that are highly nonlinear, conditional on sequences of events with a very broad phase space of possible outcomes - like the phasing of a storm or snowfall accumulations. You need information from a physical model to get that right

Pretty band Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

36dbz snow at 29-30 degrees is easy 1.5"-2" an hr. That band has been hitting same area past 2 hours. Wouldn't be surprised to see 4"+ readings, maybe 6"+:if it keeps up another hour. Not a single advisory, bulletin, hazardous weather, etc. Talk about hitting a jackpot. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

EPS OTS

Long Island is getting slammed, with absolutely no snow in the forecast. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Checked my forecast yeah no mention Roads are snow covered

Schyukhill county has some areas 2"-4" Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Even the short range of the Euro AI has bogus snow. Check this stupidity out: The bogus 18Z Euro AIFS ens member 7 on WB gave Valdosta, GA, a foot of snow for the 6 hours ending at 7PM last evening lmao:

I just know what people were posting here in the storm thread. They were showing like 2-4" in DC and Baltimore as late as last night! It was obvious 5+ days ago that this was a rainstorm.

0.4” at the park so far

I look (or more accurately laugh) at them mainly on WxBell. Are the Euro AI snow maps flawed on Pivotal and other places, too?

Why aren’t there any WWA for this?? Weird.

EURO AI ENS are a fringe like the OP.

Yea, I wasn't claiming the storm will miss just because the GEFS and EURO AI didn't nail us, rather I was just clarifying that they didn't in fact nail us this run. I don't think we'll get crushed, but that isn't why.

Yeah.. I've seen them be constantly wrong since appearing on model pages. NWS doesn't even use them. 3 days ago I think they were showing 11" of snow here on the ensemble mean! I don't know why they are so flawed- it's suppose to be a new model. There have been bulletins I think saying don't use them.

Man that was some snow job lol

As of 1:00 am, still snowing moderately, with 1.1" of new snow on top of the existing snow, so we had 0.4" the past hour, which is our heaviest snow of the event and there's maybe 1/2" on all paved surfaces, even the treated road in front of our house (see pic). Looks like lower intensity precip is close by - not sure for how long. Temp now down to 31.5F.

Chuck, Even the short range of the Euro AI has bogus snow. Check this stupidity out: The bogus 18Z Euro AIFS ens member 7 on WB gave Valdosta, GA, a foot of snow for the 6 hours ending at 7PM last evening lmao:

2"

The area around DCA (and where the reporting station was before) has been urbanized since the turn of the 20th Century.

You’re counting on them measuring correctly at CPK? Enjoy your 2 week vacation from the board

Blasted with cotton balls too bad it's not daytime