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Probably Thanksgiving 01. 01-02 was an awful winter.

Whereas the progged drop in the 10 hPa 60N winds is quite impressive, the progged overall temp. rise of the 60-90N region at 10 hPa (~7C and only to ~-57C vs others in Jan/Feb rising 15-20C to ~-40C) is not because it is mainly on the Russian side with less on our side of the pole:

Yes and a record breaking ice storm up north too. Any idea what it did in the Poconos Chris? I was on Long Island for that winter but I'm now at my other house in the Poconos at 1551 feet. I might need to get ready for ice storms up here. I hope not because I have electric heat. I have propane fireplaces too but I don't want to use them unless I really need to.

I don't remember if it was Thanksgiving of 01 or 02 but I planted grass seed on the side of our house in RI. It grew and was thick by New Years. That next January there were cherry blossoms out in Providence.

You seem surprised. Get used to it! Very strong El Nino - 'nuff said!

More like the 97 Nino than anything,by far the Eastern Pac into the thernocline is nothing comparable right now,you wont find much of a analog and i still would not use 2015,nothing close.While these maps are still Dec,it shouldnt change unelss the MJO just sits the whole month of Nov into the IO,which would be rare in a strong Ninio

Clocks fall back tomorrow btw, tonight will be the last 2am ECMWF (next one after will be at 1am Sunday November 1st)

Do you have any idea how things may eventually evolve with a record strong niño, -PDO, +QBO, and possible SSW, albeit very early in the game? I think its very interesting

Wife got a song in Russian on her Holiday Playlist It translates to "If there was no winter" Pretty sure Forky would love it since all he preaches is warm and rainy Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Just some preseason practice for the heart of winter.

It showed up for an hour straight and included visibility reductions.

Dec 97 had plenty of snow in southern NE and the southern Apps. .

How many days in a row without measurable rain? This is such an eventful time of year for weather. 1925, 1940, 1991, 2011, 2012. October 1925 was the Octoblizzard for the DC area. I noticed you mentioned the record NJ tides during the Perfect Storm weren't these exceeded in the December 1992 super noreaster? And October 2024. Which is why those are two of my analogs. I wish lol. Absolutely Awesome. Yes and an earthquake lol. October 2001 and October 2024 should be analogs. 8.5 inches here and up to 14 inches on the Jersey shore. That was a blown forecast. It's fine at that point. After the beginning of November I'm in indoor mode until the middle of March. Except when I'm cleaning up the leaf drop. Is there a way to see a county by county version of this map? The local news station said that up to a foot of snow fell here but I think with elevation it could have been twice as much.

Comparing Oct 1st with Oct 29th, neither 3.4 nor 1+2 have changed much: But Nino 3 has had a steady rise: Nino 4 ended up ~same but that’s because after a 1st half drop it had a sharp rise last 5 days:

I’ve got a hunch we’re going to see a super dry month or two locally. Probably won’t beat 2002-2003’s all time driest winter period locally but we certainly could flirt with an all time driest month. I’ve got my money on a super dry JAN

The persistent GOA low and Hudson Bay ridge is basically -TNH. Basically the inverse of 2013-2014.

How similar is this to October 2024 Chris and does this set off alarm bells for you that a drier outcome is possible? This is why I bring up 2001-02 as a non nino analog. October 2001 was also similar to this. Ray I was more referring to how NOAA broadbrushes their long range outlooks based on ENSO they very typically use 1997-1998 as their main analog for every strong el nino event. The reason I am going drier is because it hasn't rained here in 4 weeks this is very similar to October 2024 in that respect. Although selfishly if it isn't going to snow this is the perfect weather, warm and sunny It's non nino like Chris this actually reminds me of October 2024 in terms of both widespread warmth and dryness. I love it lol. ENSO is responsible for only 30% of the outcome. It reminds me of Doctor No coming out right after the GFS lol. I think they are just saying that weather and climate are two separate things. Also John I love how you write But I digress at the tail end of a long post lol. This is the same reason I get incensed with the sabr people who turned baseball into a boring comatose sport. Having the Brewers and the Rays in the Wotld Series was a nice global FU and middle finger to those fools. Yes this is also why I savor late season snowstorms especially in April. You know it's going to be the last one for a long time. Also they aren't a pain to clean up. The January HECS was bigger here, I was on Long Island for last winter where the February event was bigger but both were HECS. How did you do in the January event? That was a big one over here. Didn't we have a hugger track with the January KU event? Bias and agenda aren't the same thing. There was also an HECS in January that was bigger out this way. But it changed to ice right at the peak of the storm otherwise NYC and the local airports would have all had two 20 inch snowstorms and 50 plus inches for the season. That first storm was an 93-94 kind of storm. A global disaster? Most people love hot and dry summers. I welcome a 1966, 1983 and 2010 repeat. Yes I distinctly remember you said there were 3 different future outcomes. Nowhere did you say a KU event could not happen without a big volcanic eruption. I also grew up in the 80s and while they were much colder in the winter anyway we also got less snow. The only HECS we got in the 80s during the winter was during a super El nino. The other one was in April the previous year. While I love the warmer falls what I really hate is the longer pollen season. My allergies are much worse than what we had back then. And I feel like our May weather has gotten colder and wetter. My ideal spring weather happened in 1991 that spring was much warmer than any we've had this decade. For summer I'd take a combination of 1991 and 1993 we dont see summers as hot as that anymore. For Fall I'd take 1983 for the same reason. Either way it's no snow so warmer and sunnier would be far preferable.

Probably another few days until peak color here. Some trees at peak/ past(Maples) while some oak varieties aren't quite there yet. Very pretty now, and the leaves are coming down. Leaf blowing/mulching season is here and will go until early Dec. Fun.

I wonder what would happen if my aunt had balls.

1877-1878.... There's that year coming up again. I'm not sure how accurate reanalysis is, but let's say it's reasonable. I had dug into it a little bit. That is actually an exceptionally intriguing year, especially in light of the early season progression we're seeing now. Look at the month by month from that year. Different timing, much earlier this year. However, watch how it evolves for November and December vs what we've already seen so far. Nov 1877- Big cyclonic anomaly near Iceland to start off. We've already done that this year, and they had a record storm in Iceland out of it. Also some blocking, near the Urals. Dec-1877- Big cyclonic anomaly amplified that Ural blocking. Eerily similar to the way we achieved the monster Ural block this year. I'd put my money on there having been a disturbance in the stratosphere that year too. Something like what we've been keeping track of happening now. It's almost like it's all connected to the el nino, stratosphere included One mainstay feature of that entire season, was a big ridge near Hudson Bay in Canada. Ensembles sure are advertising plenty of that to come currently. Is this the playbook we're following? I don't know, but that early sequence has some striking similarities to ours. Check out the stubborn ridging east of Japan that year as well... My expectations for the winter are in the basement. They have been all along. I couldn't possibly bury them any deeper than where they started. There is only one thing that I personally expect we will achieve this season, a record Pacific Jet. I am, however, also willing to remain open minded for surprises at the same time. This event is interesting as hell to me though, regardless of whatever winter does. Here's that whole season, November -> March 1877-1878: