All Activity

Long range models are moving toward more blocking during the last week of April. This was what happened following the mid-April record warmth back in 2023 during the developing El Nino. So it will be interesting to see if the models like the EPS continue with the blocking as we get closer in time since these week 2 forecasts aren’t always the most reliable.

ready to sbcape

So you want backdoor fronts that ruin things for days sometimes and funky 42 degree drizzle with 25mph E wind? How is that enjoyable in any way outside? We’re past when we’d be getting any snow.

perfect april week on tap

Summer of dews is approaching.

I noticed that too. Just all around troubling.

We pray it last all Summer

And why is that one brick out , just laying there ?

The fact that he would post it online is just mind boggling . Something is not right

You know, seeing as my Blues are out now, I REALLY would love a Caps/Pens first round series.

First of all no data is altered. That is a false, misleading claim on your part. The adjustments are merely a step in the climate data analysis process. They are never purported to be actual measurements. Second the adjustments make sense if you know how they are calculated and used. Plotting the data in your table shows that Coatesville and Morgantown do not agree at times on the year-to-year temperature changes. The largest discrepancy, roughly 2F, is between 1966 and 67. That is a clear sign of a major station change, probably at Morgantown. Congratulations you've identified another major COOP station change , The station change doesn't mean that the data is bad. Only that station change needs to be accounted for when estimating long-term temperature trends. Otherwise roughly 2F of bias will be introduced. Also note that a change between 1966 and 67 would trigger station adjustments in all the prior years. That's why you find so many large positive adjustments in the older West Chester, Phoenixville and Coatesville data. All of the stations experienced moves from warmer to cooler sites between 1946 and 1970.

I’m guessing for stat geeks you’re spot on. In my world, just enjoying the annual tug of winter to summer as it transitions. As they say; to each his own.

That pic is so disturbing.

I have everyone complaining how cold I have the house this morning but I call it prepping for this week. The ac goes on the minute the sun breaks out today. I currently have ambient temperature at 61 degrees inside Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Min 39° 0.25” rain The lawn is starting to green up

I think that'll warm up and models will back off on the blocking

Sell

yes

Thank god

2023 OHC for reference

Enjoy the next 7-8 days because meh awaits after.

It’s still too early to know for sure how strong the El Niño will be but the early signs do favor an event that gets fairly powerful. How strong is uncertain, but he’s right that if it does become a super event that would be very bad news for northern areas.