All Activity

Still a strong difference between the legacy ensembles—which have a growing signal for Gulf development—and the AI ensembles which have a weak signal at best.

We landed at BTV around 11:30 in an absolute deluge. Doesn’t seem to have rained as much down here.

I had a nice rainstorm, but no lightning and thunder so technically speaking I still haven't had 1st thunderstorm of the year, despite 4 high risk days (SPC). This one was severe thunderstorm warned, don't know why. The sky was dark but that's about it.

Since the Aurora borealis in May 2024 associated with Solar Max, this big +AO pattern has been happening at the beginning of the warm season for the last 3 years.

Massive round of -SOI.. 30-day below -18, which 23-24 never did. 15-16 peaked at -22. 97-98 is the next higher up (although there was 1-month strong dip in Feb 2005). 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 What we have been calling -PDO may have actually been more of a -ENSO decadal state. 82-83 is the real one to beat, that had a streak of 3/4 months <-30 SOI.

True but the ensembles have a strong signal for some sort of genesis inside of ten days. AI less so.

Wish I could show @Roger Smiththis.

.12 at my station in Sheepshead Bay. Lots of trees and wires down In northern Queens as per the fire radio earlier this evening

Phalanx/dong headed in

Lightning and maybe 30 mph gust

Strong gust front blew through earlier followed by a whopping 0.08 inches of rain.

I hate when models back off as an event approaches. First, it was Friday (yesterday) that totally crapped out for this area. Now, the widespread 1-2" Sunday and Monday has been reduced to scattered showers, with more isolated heavy downpours. Some spots may get an inch, but others may get very little. Most of the rain on Monday has been shifted east.

Almost hit a tree branch on 684 on my way to KEWR.

The thought that you would question the great JB's claim of a weather record setter is shocking, just shocking.

There’s a natural feature that fires up storms in eastern New York due to terrain issues late afternoon. By the time they get to us, it’s into the evening and it cools as well. There’s definitely certain set ups that can favor some areas over others. But as far as tonight goes the storms in Southern Rhose Island, that are pretty potent. Carly, the marine issue is not a deal there.

A freaky record breaking cold period for N of 80N just occurred May 23rd-June 4th per the image below (records back to 1958). I saw it mentioned by Bastardi but wanted to confirm it, myself. So, I went through the graphs for every year to confirm this and it turns out he’s right with that period averaging ~-6C, which is ~3.5C BN:

We knew

Waterfront in Toms River

Is it this station? Seems like a good call and enough to soak in.

Love it!!!

I understand marine air influence but why does Eastern mass always lose these storms? Is there some other factor? This one is setting up for a complete meh again. We used to get real storms. Sorry typed while 6 IPAs deep. .

Severe Thunderstorm to my North brought in cool temps and ruined my chances for a nice soaking rain with the line that came through around 8pm. .

Crazy wind...ruined the last couple hours of my son's graduation/confirmation party

Dang! Headed up to Thornton just for the night. Passing lane was closed at around exit 27, with tree in lane. Not sure if it was straight line or tornado, but missed it by about 15 minutes. No power.