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Thought thread starting was my job?

In all seriousness, I know we don’t care as much but look at the amping up of qpf in the south. This is going to be a massive, moisture laden system.

I would argue it trended slower and broader with the precip, due to enhanced strength and the coastal low scenario.

That has more to to with the TPV splitting and digging more west than the energy in the southwest.

AI gfs misses us so I guess that's still on the table

I think you might have PTSD from past storms.

I am not certain it's a north trend versus an expanding precip shield. As Eric Webb alluded to elsewhere, this is a massive arctic airmass we're dealing with and most models, especially the ICON, are likely underestimating the CAD.

Not fully out yet

missing majors is always the worst but heavy ice is best watched from the comfort of a cozy and warm fully electrified living room hundreds of miles away

The @powderfreak to WXW2 corridor says hello

KA-BOOM? LOL

Sucky thing about being into weather and blabbing about it is when the models start coming out and I'm clearly deep into my screen, 1200 co workers pick THEN to want to come over and ask me about the storm. Anyway, GFS looks good so far. I think Saturday could be completely dry?

15-20".

I'm telling you, this may be the most likely outcome. This is far from a slam dunk snowstorm.

Its still early on

Ratios should be killer, could be ~15/20:1 for most. Won't take that much moisture to produce +6". ICON bump north below (00z vs. 12z)

ICON is worst case for this storm in central NC. Very brief snow then straight to crippling ice. Hopefully that’s sleet but idk that track looks like an ice storm to me

you and the entire state of Pa bud. Lets hope the trend is our friend once again today.

Agreed 100% with this. More of a classic progression and honestly a lot more analogs like it that we can compare to. It's what produces the 2 part WAA over to CBB/deform PD2 and others have had. You love that primary into NE TN/W NC and transferring with this kind of airmass.

What no PBP anymore??? gfs is rolling

Same

Everything is trending that way. Primary driving into the TN valley then a handoff off of NC. Interestingly, the euro ai was showing that type of progression several days ago. CMC was as well but was very amplified. From a history and climo standpoint it makes a lot of sense. It's a classic progression for a major SE/MA winter storm.

Remember models are now ejecting it out slower. Which has led to the type of out come Euro showed last night.

One other thing to note is that the para gives more weight to the CAMs in the short range, so it will be really fun to see what this event looks like as get closer to it happening.

Depends on how the trailing northern stream vort goes. A phase there makes it more likely. But, usually, in order to get the biggest totals, you need to smell the sleet.