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US National Weather Service State College PA 6-10/8-14 Day Temperature & Precip Outlooks: Strong warm signal for temperatures above the historical average weighted heavily toward March 10-11 will be followed by more seasonably cooling trend into mid-March. Wet pattern signal driven by frontal rains around the middle of next week (March 11) with main focus for heavier rainfall currently positioned to the northwest of central PA. 3/5/26|616AM

cool thanks steve i appreciate you reaching out and letting me know. i guess that 79.9 was from somewhere else or a typo? either way at least we got a cocorahs near by for now buts its technically not N Foster, its 4SSE Foster

I really do think there will be some solid ice here . It’s mainly all at night and 30-31 with NE wind. That’s how ORH did it in 2008. I’m not expecting that obviously, but there almost has to be some icing here

I don't think so.....unlikely. I will take my chances with that..ice, nope.

Maybe you have that from paste

I like that my area is on the northern edge of the main snow area on guidance because despite the seasonal trend, I would still want some wiggle room for mid levels to verify a bit warmer. I could also see lower levels verifying colder than modeled, but think the correction vector maybe warmer aloft.

Yea, if his hill were closer to the source, like up in my area, he'd get his wish and be eating PB & J in the dark for a few days.

We hope the pros win

Southern ORH hills may not have power for a bit...

The pros of icing for Kevin are a stout northeast wind and not stagnant air. The cons are that I don’t really think it’ll be much colder than like 31.5 maybe. So I don’t know how much icing you could get maybe it’s right around 32.

Gfs , Rap, Nam.. models you may not want in your corner

I believe UHI effect, while a thing, is overblown as well. My point though is - deniers like to point to UHI as tainting the data and general claims of trends, so in order to remove all doubt it would be good to have a data set (more than a single station, but rather hundreds of stations) that are truly remote. It appears the USCRN is a mix of some remote and some not-so-remote sites. Doing a filter of the USCRN data and weeding out the not-so-remote sites and presenting an average would seem like the thing to do. The Lake Erie thing actually brings something else to mind. Has anyone done studies on how much water warming (mainly rivers and lakes) is due to general industrialization vs greenhouse effect? It seems like it could be quite significant actually. I mention this because I was looking into water usage recently (context was discussion on data centers) and found that actually one of the biggest water consumers in the US is power plants - used for cooling. There's more water used for cooling power plants than there is for irrigation, believe it or not. Much of this is evaporative but much ends up back in rivers and lakes, raising their temperature. Much is used for other industrial things as well, which certainly raises the temperature some.

Well that just sucks

Mann HRRR trying to look violent.

C winter at best. We didn’t get 80” of snow, it got above 50 that one day in January, and it rained today. It wasn’t the winter Jay’s Peak, VT experiences so it’s trash honestly.

I never said that you dummy.

Nice synopsis. Forgettable event for me living in Middleborough at the time.

If Scooter thinks no ice.. you do worry . He sets the morning tone here

Yea, well the range accounts for that...more IP would be 3", less results in closer to 6". Just glad the icing will be SW of me.

Good map.Sleet may cut your totals for a while but 6 is a good number.

So your analog is showing a huge aleutian low with a ridge over the rockies (again). How does it look over the polar domain though? If we get a -WPO/-EPO or -NAO along with that aleutian low, we just might avoid a wall to wall torch. If we get a well-timed STJ wave with cold air lurking nearby, we could score and big.

I got the impression it was conservative based on this place....I hadn't seen other maps when I did mine. I agree not much snow SOP...the "up to an inch" is just to cover my ass because IP counts.

Just talked with NWS chief met. Hey Steve! The observer had to retire due to health reasons unfortunately. We are getting a new observer nearby who should start reporting in the spring. We have to set him up with all the equipment but need to wait for the snow to melt a little! Only snow data is from Cocorahs

Guidance looks way too warm at the surface today. No idea how temps rise much from here with north winds already being felt down to Hartford and clouds thickening up…

Yea, you have more than I do...you must radiate decently because Providence is already down near a foot.