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Then your methodology is off.

Be nice to some white with the Christmas decorations this weekend

Those three stations are what I'm testing. Again, assumption made that is incorrect. Take an average of those three stations, that's your 'snowfall index'. Bench that snowfall index to ENSO past 30 years and you get a correlation that fails. So other than arbitrarily fitting it to the data, why does 4" mean something meteorologically?

We are taking about local and not regional snowfall observations. A broad brush approach doesn’t always work especially with the wide variation between the coastal plain to mountains areas to the north and west. You need to more narrowly focus the data for the sensible weather from EWR to NYC and LGA for which the relationship is valid.

Some Met .Doesn't understand CAD.Thinks we live at 850 and 500. As far as calling me a loser. Come to our GTG Sat and we can talk bout it.

One of the 4 features I’ve been talking about, the negative WPO, is starting to fade or weaken. I’m starting to think that with the extended -PNA through the rest of this month, the warmth is going to last past the new year. We still haw canada cold, mjo projected to return to into 7/8, and stratosphere activity (with a lag). With these still in the picture, cold may return around the second week of January. The PNA may also flip positive for the majority of next month as well.

Latest blend juiced up

What's Christmas without a 570dm ridge overhead?

With age comes extreme wisdom. The knowledge that we can only control our individual lives and the realization that all that surrounds it is uncontrollable. There is no sense in getting upset over things we cannot control.

It’s worth recognizing… You’re a fool.. Even with the coldest Ensemble runs of the EPS for that date, it’s still warm. A loser taking a losing bet. Shocker. That incredible warmth is 250 miles away; the deep cold is 2500 miles away…Take your bet… Some critical thinking is worth something.

I guess. I mean, nothing is ever 100 percent. I have plenty of other hobbies and duties, so if it doesn't snow I can distract myself. Also it's a double edge sword having a career where you have to work out in said weather. A break can be nice

I wonder who those 2 are?

Higher ratio to the north too .

You're making a lot of assumptions about how I do things and those assumptions are wrong. I used SAI as an sample of a 'near term' trend with a strong statistical correlation that showed forecastable value off a short sample size and ultimately failed as your sample size got larger. My correlation work largely ignores what happens before 1991. The correlation still fails to reach statistical significant when testing between ENSO, the SOI and any number of corresponding variables when you benchmark them to regional snowfall observations. You're speaking with someone who has done this professionally in the commodities space for 15 years. My methodologies discount severely anything before 1991 because it is a different climate regime. This is an industry that benchmarks to the 10 year normal and not 30 -myself included- so I don't need a lecture and explanation about understanding what regime we are in. This isn't a discussion about that, it's a discussion about overfitting to an arbitrary value. For the record, I also do detrended analysis to find statistical signals around warmer background trends. I am very cognizant of the CC forcing arguments you've made and how deeply you believe them. But as we got into an argument last year about Feb, we're getting into an argument here on what constitues actual statistical signal and more importantly *why* you used a threshold value other than fitting it to observational data. You still need to find a robust statistical *and* meteorological reason for 4" of snow meaning something for us to take any real stock in using it as a metric. I can test it, I can say 'hey, that's kinda interesting' but you're not giving me a real meteorological reason for why 4" is an actual threshold.

I truly don’t believe anyone here is fully able to shrug it off . Everyone is here because they love at least some facet of weather. Some it’s only snow.. others like me are extreme wx nuts that love every extreme there is . Whatever brings us here is weather related and folks are not being honest if they say they shrug it off and move on. I will never buy that

Until a week or so after new years if the sentiment is anything to go by. The cold air is on this side of the hemisphere this year.

Which Ens is that. Better look under the hood

I’m with you, having it balls cold and bare frozen ground F’s with me. Is what it is.

Seriously, this was a 70s thing. They're so collectable I just won't spend the $$$ for them. Should help though!

gfs selling mid upper 60s on xmas signal not going away

Someone may have already mentioned this, but it looks like we get a GFS suite of AI models starting Dec 17.

In fairness, I made the post a few hours ago when Euro weeklies have shown it for days and all 0z modeling, including ensembles, we're out. Lol