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One well-placed nor’easter can absolutely push the Lehigh Valley above normal for the winter. Allentown got 31.9 inches from the January 2016 blizzard alone. If a coastal low slows down where its heaviest snow band sits over the Valley and the cold air holds, that one storm can decide where we finish. preview.weather.gov My pop-up thunderstorm analogy fits. You can reasonably forecast that the afternoon favors thunderstorms and still have no idea at breakfast whose backyard will get drenched. El Niño gives forecasters some insight into the winter storm track. NOAA’s outlook this winter favors wetter conditions along the Eastern Seaboard, but it gives no seasonal snowfall total for Allentown. I’d take the regional odds seriously and be skeptical of anyone claiming in November that our region will finish below normal

Are any of you all using Spotter Tools Pro? It is a new weather radar program and it's free after initial purchase in the app store. https://www.facebook.com/share/1DSNaajEg8/ Sent from my moto g stylus 5G - 2023 using Tapatalk

That huge cold anamolie over eastern Siberia is the last thing you want to see. .

Now that the multi-run CFS’ have warmed considerably in the E US for Feb vs how they were a couple of weeks ago, the above Nov Cansips run for Feb is notably colder by ~2F than the latest 3 day CFS for Feb, which is below (even after considering the ~1F colder climo being used by this TT CFS):

Depends on where you were. Don't be a @CoastalWx!

That’s an absolute beast. 1st of many possibly. .

2016 sucked around here...basically for areas that whiffed on the blizzard.

2.21" rainfall on the month.

Deeply negative, no....but I think it will get more favorable in that domain during the stretch.

Yes, toss the Modiki crap...all guidance has been erroneously doing that.....but Cansips and JMA have been worst.

Nice.

But given we have only 4 very strong El Ninos prior since 1950, we could be surprised. One thing I have come to realize that just when you think you'd seen it all, a big curve ball is thrown, so do no totally dismiss the E Coast for sig snows. Case in point when it comes to very strong El Nino, and I have mentioned this before, we always assumed the Cali gets soaked in such El Nino and the Pac NW dry, but the 2015-16 event, the exact opposite occurred! So even though many regions often get the same sensible wx in this type of El Nino, they can be sig deviations for some. Why not us this time? And locally for this type of El Nino, we can cash in from a not-so-apparent or rather MEH-looking event. Like Dec 23. 1997! And of course, big events like Feb 1983 of Jan 2016. And really 2015-16, we did not do that bad in SNE. Better than the long lamenting 40year period @CoastalWx would not stop b*tching about through Dec 2025! https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sne-15-16

The above-normal warmth continues

I ended up with 4.3” of rainfall this month, which is slightly above normal. But I’ve gotten none since Oct 11th, which was from a feeder band with thunderstorms that woke me ~7AM from the influence of Isaias’ remnants and which was just ahead of a cold front. I got a total of 1.6” from Isaias Oct 9-11th. The wx especially early this week and last week with comfy dewpoints and sunshine was great for outdoor activities. Due to the combo of persistent breezy NE winds most of this week and the full moon early this week, there was coastal flooding near times of high tide Oct 25th-29th despite sunny wx (“King Tides”).

From Spann: SSW/POLAR VORTEX: I have been getting many questions about last night's post here about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in progress. Let's clarify in plain English... Twenty miles above the North Pole, a river of wind circles the Arctic — a fence keeping the coldest air on Earth bottled up over the pole. Next week, that fence collapses — earlier than ever recorded. The air high above the pole warms sharply in days (that's the "sudden stratospheric warming"), the circling winds reverse, and down comes the fence. All 50 European forecast scenarios show it by November 12; the record is November 28. What it means for Alabama — and what it doesn't: *It does NOT mean cold arrives next week. The next two weeks stay mild. *It DOES raise the odds of real cold later. With the fence down, Arctic air can spill south in the weeks that follow — for us, the window is Thanksgiving into December. *The wildcard: a super El Niño brings a wet, busy storm track here. Cold air meeting that moisture is the December combination to watch. Bottom line: no hype, no snow forecast — just better-than-normal odds that December brings cold. I get the idea our weather will be pretty interesting over the next 4-6 months. Stay tuned.

Miller A ?