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I’m expecting a half inch here. Typical

DCA at 00z Tuesday 12z NAM

12z NAM soundings would definitely suggest potential for tornadoes tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night IMO

Happy Father's Day to all the dad's out there! Plus happy first day of summer which began this morning at 4:24am. Another great weather day is on tap across the area. Temperatures are not far from typical levels for very early summer. Rain chances to ramp up by later tomorrow before we clear out for mid-week. Shower chances return again by Thursday afternoon.

Happy Father's Day to all the dad's out there! Plus happy first day of summer which began this morning at 4:24am. Another great weather day is on tap across the area. Temperatures are not far from typical levels for very early summer. Rain chances to ramp up by later tomorrow before we clear out for mid-week. Shower chances return again by Thursday afternoon.

What are y'all talking about low DPs? My DP is 67F.

Hrrr says let’s flood Madison nh again.

Surprised to see 1/2 - 3/4" in my forecast for both tomorrow and tomorrow night. I predict by tonight's update those totals get cut in half, and by tomorrow mornings's they get cut in half again. In the end, I get less than 1/4".

So far, 16 locations in France have reached 40°C (104°F) or above today in an ongoing climate change-enhanced extreme heatwave. Pissos has hit 41.5°C (107°F). While one waits for the final numbers from today and coming days that will rank this heatwave as among the worst in French and western European climate history, I created a digital artwork "It's A Crazy World" to symbolize humanity's unwillingness to confront the cause of ongoing climate change. A burning globe stands before a background of climate stripes, transforming scientific evidence into a stark visual record of the world’s ongoing warming. Europe glows with dangerous heat, while a thermometer planted over France reads 40°C. In the lower left, fossil fuel infrastructure appears almost toy-like against the scale of planetary disruption: small in form, but immense in consequence. At the right, a pale sculptural figure (detail from Jean-Baptiste Carpeaux’s "Ugolino and His Sons" that I photographed at the Metropolitan Museum of Art) evokes humanity’s mounting suffering under the pressure of a hotter world. This work confronts one of the central absurdities of the modern age. The evidence is overwhelming and unequivocal. The burning of fossil fuels is driving anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming, and that warming is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme heatwaves. Yet humanity continues to extract, burn, subsidize, and consume the very fuels accelerating the crisis with seeming indifference to the harm it is inflicting on the world and its ecosystems. The contrast between beauty and terror is deliberate. The climate stripes are visually elegant, but they record a destabilizing planet. The glowing continents are dramatic, but they signify real risk. The sculptural body, drawn from an image of suffering, gives human form to what can otherwise seem abstract. The quote from a young French climate activist anchors the work in moral urgency, insisting that the crisis is not distant, theoretical, or merely environmental. It is already a question of life and death. "It’s A Crazy World" is about knowing and continuing destructive business as usual anyway. It asks viewers to consider the madness of a civilization capable of measuring its own danger with precision while still choosing to feed the fire.

GFS is very wet ? IMO when this system arrives it will not be one solid area of precip - it will be a more showery system with T-storms possible only areas that will see over 1 inch will be the few that get the t-storms The system will not arrive till afternoon and by then daytime heating will support T-storms

Absolutely. This ongoing experiment is demonstrating the cooling power trees provide in a warming world.

Loving it. My wife's newly put in plants... did not like it. Solstice + 40's dews + full sun = Toasted.

Euro and GFS very wet tomorrow. CMC much drier.

.1” last night. So lucky. In shocking news Monday’s rain is headed south.

Low dews are the compensation prize for our mega drought

WPC increased overall precip 7 day totals ( most of that is early week )

Summer softball started last week and we’ve been loving the low dews. Probably gonna pay for it come July though haha

Happy Fathers Day to all the dads!

Euro's been more and more leaning away from a strata rain look toward something more convectively distributed later Monday afternoon. That tells me that's capitulating over time and model runs, slowly toward less of synoptic forcing scenario - though some would likely remain/still be present with that. The NAM's most recent run could be N-W bias overall ... a failing not uncommon to that model as I've said 327 times over the last 20 years, and it gets conveniently forgotten when it is the only model showing a snow strike in an otherwise suppressed consensus. Anyway, that 06z NAM solution tries to warm sector SNE which strands the region on dry ground because the impetus for raining at all has always been PWAT flop over the antecedent cool/dry air in place type of deal. If we warm wedge...that shuts off that mechanism. The "cool" front then limps through with limited fan fair because mechanics are too weak. wah waahhh. GFS still offers the overrunning general wet hope ... albeit light. One aspect consistent with all guidance is that there is a PWAT anomaly being either pressed up against, or succeeding in overrunning ... that offers a higher mesoscale error in QPF because the convection uncertainty/placement. Expecting some variability in results. Spectacular early summer weather Tuesday afternoon - Thurs. Bit of heat signal still looms ~29 - 3rd, and actually has become more significantly suggested in the numerical values of the telecon from all three sources. However, the spatial/synoptic manifestation of that is still ( if ever ...) middling impression. Euro wants to be west enough that we never taste it here.

Over 3.5” past three days. I see J.Spin is over 4.5”. Mushrooms growing in the yard. Mountain Operations station for Mansfield showing 5.47”… about 2” more than town, which fits with orographics and NW flow.

Like the 06z NAM ?

Can you post your app link again please.

We can see the influence of the tree growth adding artificial cooling to the NYC record when we look at very warm June 1-20 periods for high temperatures going back in time. NYC used to be more evenly matched with Newark. Notice how the spread widened following the tree growth since the 1990s. NYC mean maximum temperature compared to Newark 2026….-4.1 2008….-2.4 1994…..-2.5 1984…..-1.4 1966….+0.3 1957….…0.0 1952…..-0.7 Data for June 1, 2026 through June 20, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 86.0 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 85.4 NJ HARRISON COOP 85.1 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 85.0 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 84.0 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 83.9 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 83.7 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 83.1 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 82.9 CT DANBURY COOP 82.7 NY CENTERPORT COOP 82.6 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 82.5 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 82.4 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 82.4 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 82.2 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 82.2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 82.2 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 81.9 Data for June 1, 2008 through June 20, 2008 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 84.9 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 84.9 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 84.8 NJ CRANFORD COOP 84.8 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 84.7 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 84.7 NY BRONX COOP 84.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 84.2 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 84.1 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 83.8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 83.5 CT DANBURY COOP 83.4 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 83.0 NY MINEOLA COOP 82.7 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 82.5 NY WEST POINT COOP 82.5 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 82.1 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 82.0 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 81.5 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 81.3 Data for June 1, 1994 through June 20, 1994 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 87.2 NJ CRANFORD COOP 86.1 CT DANBURY COOP 84.9 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 84.8 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 84.7 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 84.6 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 83.6 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 83.5 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 83.4 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 83.4 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 83.3 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 83.1 NY WEST POINT COOP 83.0 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 82.9 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 82.8 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 82.8 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 82.7 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 82.3 NY WEST NYACK COOP 81.6 NY SUFFERN COOP 81.1 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 81.0 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 81.0 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 80.8 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 80.7 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 80.7 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 80.7 NY MINEOLA COOP 80.6 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 80.3 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 80.3 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 79.6 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 79.6 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 78.9 Data for June 1, 1984 through June 20, 1984 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY SCARSDALE COOP 87.5 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 85.4 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 84.9 NJ CRANFORD COOP 84.8 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 84.8 NY WEST POINT COOP 84.8 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 84.7 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 84.5 NY GARNERVILLE COOP 84.2 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 83.8 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 83.7 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 83.5 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 83.3 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 83.3 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 83.1 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 83.1 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 83.1 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 83.0 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 83.0 NY WESTBURY COOP 83.0 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 82.9 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 82.9 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 82.8 CT DANBURY COOP 82.6 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 82.5 Data for June 1, 1966 through June 20, 1966 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 82.6 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 82.6 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 82.3 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 82.3 NJ PATERSON COOP 81.9 NY WEST POINT COOP 81.5 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 81.3 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 81.2 NY SCARSDALE COOP 80.9 CT WATERBURY RADIO WBRY COOP 80.5 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 80.4 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 80.3 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 79.5 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 79.4 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 79.4 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 79.0 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 78.9 CT SAUGATUCK RESERVOIR COOP 78.8 CT DANBURY COOP 78.8 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 78.8 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 78.8 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 78.6 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 78.5 NY CARMEL COOP 78.3 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 78.3 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 78.2 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 78.1 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 78.1 NY SUFFERN COOP 78.0 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN 77.9 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 77.9 NY HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY COOP 77.7 NY MINEOLA COOP 77.1 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 76.9 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 76.8 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 76.7 Data for June 1, 1957 through June 20, 1957 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY WEST POINT COOP 85.0 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 84.9 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 84.9 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 84.5 NJ PATERSON COOP 84.5 NY SCARSDALE COOP 84.3 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 84.1 NY SUFFERN COOP 84.1 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 83.5 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 83.2 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 83.0 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN 82.8 NY CARMEL COOP 82.8 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 82.7 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 82.5 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 82.5 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 82.5 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 82.5 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 82.5 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 82.4 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 82.4 NY HEMPSTEAD MALVERNE COOP 82.2 CT DANBURY COOP 82.2 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 82.1 Data for June 1, 1952 through June 20, 1952 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ ELIZABETH COOP 88.6 NJ PATERSON COOP 85.8 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 84.6 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 84.5 NY SCARSDALE COOP 84.4 NY WEST POINT COOP 84.3 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 84.2 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 83.7 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 83.5 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 83.3 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 83.0 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 83.0 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 83.0 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 82.8 CT WATERBURY CITY HALL COOP 82.7 NY MINEOLA COOP 82.6 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 82.5 CT STAMFORD COOP 82.3 CT NORWALK COOP 82.2 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 81.8 NY HEMPSTEAD MALVERNE COOP 81.8

First Happy Happy Happy father's day Totals from 6z

Dep through 6/20 two thirds JFK: +4.2 EWR: +4.1 LGA: +3.3 NYC: +2.6 (running consistently 3 - 7 beind other sites daily maxes)