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mirrors 1978 blizzard

10:1 kuchera

The issue is they're all cutting back. Plus the closer in we get to go time, each model run is is more accurate than the last. It's not like having a bad run 5 days before the storm. It's supposed to start snowing in 24 hrs.

Great writeup in your WPC analysis, and great thoughts! I believe some pages back in this thread, someone posted the EC ensembles and they were clearly clustered more to the west and the deterministic was on the eastern end of the spread as you mention. Don't know if anyone posted the GEFS (if that's relevant), whether they're farther west than the deterministic GFS, etc.

GFS

Just in that eastern edge! Hopefully it'll tick a hair west at gametime

Does the NWS afd now not do coastal flooding details? They used to do tides section near hydrology stufg

Picked up 3 Floyds Arctic Panzer Wolf Imperial IPA, felt fitting. I’m pumped for tomorrow night. Could be hours of thunder snow.

GEFS slightly snowier at 18z over 12z lol .

I mean, why not right?

Amen!

I like that very much, yes I do

HECS

With a massive storm bombing right off the coast nothing would surprise me really. Could easily go boom for us. Will it? Who knows, hopefully.

Great exchange here between @MillvilleWx & @DDweatherman

100% this. GFS would be a total nuisance.

I like your positivity and I agree, it could go boom. Just haven't seen that enough on guidance (a 25-50 mile shift west) to believe. But, I did just read Millvilles post and he actually knows what he's talking about unlike me lol. Maybe I should have more confidence

Correct!

Wouldn't give it weight for another 12 hours.

I'm a realtor in the area. Let me know when you're ready to move back to the snow country of NW Frederick County and I'll help you out lol.

I am in there! And solution man. And yes I am watching that.

I wouldn’t be shocked with 8 or more, very dynamic situation and some of these mesos are throwing us bands through Monday morning. Tuck this a tiny bit more and boom.

we have a professional weather met craig allen doing the weekend weather on wcbs 2.

Start time down in Ocean City NJ? 10am?

Anyone SE of an ASH-HFD axis doesn’t have much to worry about unless youre being greedy and demand 2 feet.