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Even being kuchera, that’s a whoa from Euro. Haven’t been many maps looking like that that aren’t of the full 300+ hour run. This time the fantasy storm is only 120 hours out and the whole region gets the goods.

Back in the day, I think you used to check the UKIE for baja phasing situations. There was an old bias card. But I don't know if it's even applicable now after all the updates.

Gonna be a long but very enjoyable week!

Seems about right, and is consistent with a slow shift upwards in temperatures. In a no-change scenario one would expect both the number of record highs and the number of record lows to be decreasing over time. In a shifting-upwards scenario one would expect the number of record highs to be remaining about constant while the number of record lows decrease over time; those are apparent in those charts.

Excited for the mountain and foothill crew!

that's not true, the GfS showed a storm last week and everyone discounted it ended up being half right but everyone said it wasn't worth looking at but gfs is a good model but i think its wrong here because you literally have the cmc uk and euro depicting a SECs

If it phases earlier, the mid Atlantic and NE will rejoice while we weep without power.

But is 5-7” our ceiling or is there room for MECS totals here in SNE? I get that the Kuchera ratios on the maps might be inflated, but still…

I don't think we would see any scenario where anyone has to worry about sleet. Any concern would be more related to subsidence

Hey Gang. There's a big storm acomin!

So will we get any dynamic cooling in the 50-50 areas? .

Must be some secondaries on the EPS because duration/qpf goes longer. Nice to see that as well

Love to see less southern outliers on the ENS 12z 6z You can also see a stronger Tennessee valley handoff signal as well on 12z.

I see now....the first slug went SE and some people got excited. You were fine! I am setting my expectations for at least 6 inches; more than 12 inches and a 0 degree low would exceed expectations. But so much can happen in 6 days....long week ahead.

I hope we all get a Blue Bird day soon. After a busy weekend at Wisp, calm has returned. Pic is this afternoon on the backside of the mountain. Temp this afternoon is in the low teens.

hopefully not congrats Powderfreak....I definitely do not want sleet @ 12 degrees

We should have a banter threat for any one storm instead of a catch all! I LOL so many times from some of the posts... I want to hone in on them for the storm! Just saying!

Biggest snowfall I've experienced, March 14-15, 1984 (26.5") began at about 1030 mb and over its near-24h hour dumping, drifted down to about 1017. To the north there was a very strong cold HP, don't have its mb but the afternoon high on 3/12 was 1°. CAR 29.0", BGR 22.2". From up here we'll be watching at a distance while feeding the woodstove. -20s Sunday morning?

Yeah not expecting to know anything. A lot of details to iron out. Looks like temps are gonna be around 10 degrees during the storm. Thats how you get big numbers but I still dont buy 12 inches of snow from .6 inch of liquid

Wxbell stuck at 45… anybody got eps precip?

Or we sand? Cold doesn't automatically equal awesome ratios. We'll prob get good ratios as long as deeper lift gets into our area, but if we are pseudo-fringed, then it could be arctic sand.

Too many setting the bar too high for the next event. If it's a HECS or even MECS you won't know until 2-3 days prior, not 5-6

Good bump north on EPS total QPF when compared to 0z.

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