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Time for the south trends to stop though

The official die roll for this event is 11 50/50 chance And yeah, I'd toss any solution that gives New Bern, NC 20 inches of snow until it becomes a repeat thing.

Will be absolutely incredible if this actually ends up as long duration as it’s showing it could be. Been a long time since seeing something like that.

I did pretty much the same loop today. It was my buddy's first time out on his new sled so we didn't want to get too adventurous. We bought a package from a guy in Plattsburgh, NY who had gotten divorced. 2017 Ski Doo Blizzard 900 ACE - 3200 mi. 2017 Ski Doo Blizzard 12004Tech - 3200 mi 2018 Nitro Hybrid Trailer Paid $13K. I think we got a really good deal. The sleds had been fully serviced with oil changes and new batteries at the end of last year. Trails we good today. A few bumps after the weekend but we met a groomer out.

The GFS:

Nope. I just honestly feel like it’s going to get squashed. Not exactly a hot take, that’s what most guidance shows lol

Right, I think Wednesday if things are looking good

GEFS is going to be a bit north of OP, but further south than 12z GEFS. Heaviest totals appear to be lining up right down I40 from West to East. Also seems to be step for step with 12z EPS. Regardless, this run is going to be big for many!

Here's the thing, nobody should put much weight in the GFS now, but I don't care how much I'm ridiculed, I'd like to see it on board if I'm being honest. People have gotta stop being binary. Me saying I wanna see it onboard doesn't mean I'm in angst over what it shows now. For me, it's just a caution and prevents me from being overly confident/hyped.

The GFS has zero support. Not from it's AI, not from it's ensembles, which are very wet. It's precip shield is almost 200 miles south of the GEFS through 120.

Caveat: it was just for 30 min until the AI CRAS comes out. Then more jumping. temp down to 34°. Should stick once precip starts

One solid thing about us Mountain Folks is that we watch and never weenie out. It will always be what it is.

Yes it is!

Subtle differences in the interaction between the pieces of h5 vorticity make a pretty significant difference at the surface downsteam- one such difference occurs here with a lack of phasing between the NW energy dropping southward and the Baja vortex. Compare to 12z- some phasing occurs and vorticity from the SW energy ejects eastward contributing to more amplification and sooner.

I’ll be on total tilt as well since it’s had 2 MECS within 100 hrs for the area and been wrong so hopefully it’s just as wrong on this one as well. Having it finally score a coup on this potential storm would be so tilting.

Not sure the reason for doom or gloom. If I had just been looking at the model and not reading in here, toggled back and forth to previous runs, this looked great. Definitely moved in the right direction for snow vs none in previous runs. Maybe I’m missing something?

Its a perfect setup for your area!

You should care. Especially if euro follows suit

Silver Diner. And it’s dark out so had to come inside because of my cataracts. Just asked the kids to program the VCR so I can watch the college game in the morning

We are all feeling that.

There are no trends yet - the gfs went way north the gfs ai went way south. Other most recent model runs blast the area. .

The way the gfs is now shouldn’t alarm anyone. It showed an 80 inch snowstorm in Pa last week. Let it play out

GEFS a bit south, big picture comparison

You new here?

That kicker in the Dakotas is the problem on the Gfs suite this run. Will it start showing up on other guidance is the question.