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Any brief mix here if it does will go back to snow as CF moves through and winds aloft still out of NE. You should do well even if you flip for a few hours. Much better look there vs outer cape

Only goes up to 66hrs

I guess it Bern but whatever you get the point.

Given the airmass, the trend could actually be a significant benefit to us, at least on the mesoscale level when it comes time to pinning down banding and what the potential amounts may be

Notice that Mt. Holly's Winter Storm Watches only include mixing in their southern zones WSW from KPHI

Jeez, these are gaudy. Is this an artifact of questionable precip algorithm or does it think that much snow for real?

Do we have access to the 6z operational run?

They are always concerning even when you think you're far enough north or west. With that said if this ended with just the last .10 of precip as sleet, I find that ideal for many different reasons.

lol I can be cool too

A Viking seed?

At worst 95% of your precip will be snow. I have a bit more to worry about after the initial thump. Euro still looks decent despite changing over. All bets are off if the trend to keep the primary stronger and further north persists

No he didn't. He also knows what he's looking at. I have no idea why you guys are getting annoyed with him.

I rarely post here despite being a long time lurker. But why exactly are our models so bad at this? We seem to have improved immensely with hurricane forecasting in the last 10-15 years, but modeling this type of event seems to have had zero long range progress. What's the inherent difference?

Look to bottom right at initial phase then look at skew-t. I'm utterly confused how initial phase is not snow Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Nice to finally have a big one to track here in central Ohio! Looking likely to have first Winter Storm Warning in years. My concern now is cold/dry air winning out & that precip shield getting shunted to the south. Not saying it won’t snow but big snow here still at risk. Ratios should be good but too cold & you get a pixy dust storm.

No rest for the weary here. Hopefully everyone has power to track this next wave in the 10 day. All 3 major models show another shot. Of course take it with a grain of salt, but winter certainly doesn’t look over after the ice passes.

I felt terrible for him. It’s hard to read these mods and see our snow disappear, I can’t imagine being on here living in Halls watching it rain and reading about Maynardville having 8+ inches of snow. .

Euro

6z Ukie ensembles convinced they were too warm.

@Blacksburg Coachnight and day difference there between GFS and EURO. Those are FRAM averages too which is even more significant when we're talking about accrual/accretion.

Time to go plant this bad boy in the yard

Feel the Burn

Extremely bullish briefing by mt holly. Wow. https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

This piece of crap is supposed to replace the NAM at some point, I believe. But hey, dare to dream.