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Sunday evening/night holds blizzard warning criteria. Something to keep an eye on.

why are we looking at anything the 12k NAM has to say past 48 hrs? how many times do we have to learn this?

Icon is just the icon. .

The beast has arrived. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G18&sector=wus&band=09&length=24

Or better yet.. retire…

WRIC being more conservative after getting burned last year lol

WeatherFront app is amazing btw. Yeah it's coming over the mountains I believe. Crazy to see. This wind is siding the cold transport.

Once in range, I'd imagine the mesos will start upticking the qpf associated to ocean enhancement and long fetch easterly flow. Wouldn't be shocked to see 1.5-2" on those models as we get closer. Can already kind see it on the Euro maps

After looking at the NAM temps above, that was my first thought. The air is warming as it moves away from the foothills and into the valley of the 81 corridor so that makes some sense. You know how they do those air parcel tests to see where airmasses come from? It'd be really interesting to see where the air that is moved by the mountain wave events originates and what happens to it as it accelerates over the mountains and descends into the East TN valley. This seems like a very unusual situation. Usually when we have mountain wave events it seems like we have a strong cutter heading west and there isn't really any concern for cold air except on the backside of the system.

But falling sleet sucks. I made a post about it a few pages back that captures my feelings on the subject of a flip to sleet.

Nice run from the RRFS as well. 1" liquid all snow for most of our area as precip. lightens up late Sun. with the dryslot. It looked a tick cooler than 12z. The details don't matter that much at this point. But what I think is important is that we stop seeing further north trends. So far with the NAM and RRFS at worst the northern solution appears to have held. If we go much past this point it becomes increasingly difficult to reverse the trend at the last minute and we start introducing the possibility of ZR to CNJ and even rain for the S & E coasts of NJ.

Already bought one lol

Literally was salivating on some chances that are in the pipeline the next few weeks lol

The screw zone on that one is brutal. 12+ in the city. 5” in Morgantown .

It’s been a long time coming where I can enjoy a storm and not worry about ptype. Almost 4 years man. Just gonna enjoy this one. If at worst it gives me snizzle I’m not worried.

The high res models try very very hard to account for terrain. Probably too hard at times. It's because their resolution is so small they see every hill and valley. Are those fingers deep valley areas?

I wish it was the last model to run so no one would even look at it.

The most important question at this point is whether to stay up all night Saturday or go to bed early and wake up at 4am to dendrites.

1/22 18z RGEM snow arriving by 1-3 AM

Take what we can get build the glacier and on to the groundhog storm

Alright one final model before I go and be productive. This is supposed to replace the NAM

This is fun and tragic and fun at the same time. We are at a moment where we are hoping the GFS is right. I love you guys. Prepping for the GFS...

They are currently going through the 5 steps of grief but at different stages at various rates. Some are actually already at step 5. "3-5 inches isn't that bad" Denial: "This can't be happening to me," a defense mechanism to process overwhelming news. Anger: "Why is this happening to me?" Blaming others or feeling rage. Bargaining: "I'll do anything if this isn't true," making deals with a higher power. Depression: "I'm too sad to do anything," profound sadness and hopelessness. Acceptance: "It's going to be okay," coming to terms with the reality of the loss.

Nina MECS for us are really rare for a reason. Northern stream just so rarely plays nice. This is still going to be a good or great storm though! Still probably top tier for a Nina.

You can't hide your lyin eyes. From your descriptions over the years, you seem to be in a horrible area for snow so I believe you.