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Last freeze and last frost are not the same. Just had a frost at 37F

Freeze killed my Japanese maple and redbud never seen that before.

I already posted it was the latest 24 and 25F for many area. The lower the temp the more it kills.

I have found a site that allows you to trade future monthly US Temperature IBKR ForecastTrader May is currently going for 62F. Over or under? +NAO March, which you pointed out as a huge anomaly rolled forward to this May pattern When something is counter-intuitive like that (instead of warm begetting warm), I take note of it as something going on in the evolution of the pattern

They have been overly bullish the last few events. They were calling for up to 1.5 inches of rain. Now it's only .25 to .50 here. I think closer to .25 unless the a heavy cell or thunderstorm moves close by.

I saw wild things in La Plata. I talked to the father of some poor teenage girl that worked at the Taco Bell that got obliterated. She was standing next to him in shock still. He brought her back there so she could understand what happened. Her friend that worked there was still missing if I remember correctly. I have no idea how she survived unhurt. The only thing left was the stools that were bolted to the foundation. The tornado ripped the blacktop off 301 where it crossed. It was an EF5. I'll fight anyone that says different lol

This crap cold weather couldn't come at a worse time. The rubber band is going to snap back to mega heat just in time for the hottest part of the year. It's gonna be 110F DPs and derechos all the way down.

30-day SOI is below -10 for the first time since Feb 2024. It will need to average -10 for the next 2 days to hold that value for Apr - which is indicative of a healthy developing El Nino. Big switch from anomaly in March, where it was +7 and developing Nino's (>1.2 RONI peak) since 1950 had never been above +2

No, there have been freezes in May before. At PHL, the record is May 11, 1966. Much of this area had a freeze on May 9, 2020. Even as far south as North Carolina, there was a freeze on April 19-22, 1983 (this was also the latest snow in our area): Don't try to tell me that a few weeks ago was a 'record latest freeze'. There have been freezes later than that. I just showed 1966, 1983, and 2020 (there are probably more examples).

Put 1.7 in the bucket with that one so that puts me over 2in locally. At least thats something. That and the incoming cold snap ought to trigger the Morels that haven't flushed yet to do so and the areas that have, to do it again, hopefully. Double flushes of mushrooms DO happen so if your favorite spot popped early because of the wet and the cold/heat/cold/heat cycles over the last month check them again over the next couple of weeks. Cold snaps shock them into fruiting. I've had 2 spots double flush this year. Been the best year in while for me, I'm over 400 bagged. Hell found 50 in my front yard 2 weeks ago and it hasn't flushed since Covid. They are finicky lol

It looks like the 26c isotherm has made it down the thermocline. Doesn't get much warmer than that. I mean, there's not a perfect correlation of subsurface making it to the surface, but it is pretty high +time. I have also theorized that subsurface anomalies on the thermocline effect the N. pacific pattern, and we are seeing that on current models in May with more +PDO-type patterns, n. pacific 500mb low pressure It must be interesting for deep sea fish in the area to go from 65 degrees to 80 degrees (El Nino) to 55 degrees (La nina), all along the equator. Maybe some interesting evolutions there.

half and half here

Whoa !

Kinda chilly out there. Upper 40s.

I was in the supercell 24 years ago as well. Very heavy rain HP supercell and then the back half of the storm passage was all hail. I did see what became the 2nd tornado/waterspout as this storm crossed into the Bay....but overhead in southern St Charles...rapidly rotating funnel maybe no more than 100 to 200 feet above us. The trees were swaying but none fell. That was immediately preceded by some clearing and the steam coming up from all the hail. Just an incredible storm. I drove down to La Plata and I remember so many windows busted along the way by hail. Then seeing the guard rails wrapped around the tops of the trees a considerable distance away from the 301/Rt 6 intersection. Wild stuff.

0.46 for me this morning. Nice!

By a week or so? And the fruit world would be catastrophically destroyed this season? Drought guy said the freeze was 2 weeks ago which is around mid April. Doesn't sound super late? I think things will be just fine...perhaps a record setting over abundance. 57F, heading to the 40s.

It’s shorts weather everyday once mid Morch hits. I’ve had shorts on since then .. other than some cold morning runs .

I just got back from Sarasota a couple days ago from a family wedding and mini vacation and man this is a tough adjustment. 80 nearly everyday with a gentle breeze in the evening and walking around in shorts everywhere is hard to beat. I did get a bit of a burn on my upper back and shoulders but it’s totally worth it just having that nice change of pace for a while!

Ahhh, reminiscing. 1 of 2 20”+ storms this year.

by the way, this large hail storm was right at Springfield MO

Tomorrow will see temperatures reach the lower 60s. Another shot of rain will arrive. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely tomorrow into Thursday. Following the rainfall, temperatures will top out in the lower 60s through Saturday. May will likely open with cooler than normal conditions. Sunday could be especially cool with highs only in the upper 50s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -15.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.394 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

18z HRRR is insistent on //some// rain for everyone, but it really tries to run a few decent thunderstorms north of I-66 that drop localized 1" amounts.

Drove the pike to Lee today, still full stick season at 1,700 feet in Becket

Let’s make a plan together to “MYLGA”