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Can’t lie, it’s been a long time since I’ve been so down on HU activity in the short and medium time scales. SSTs across the Tropical Atlantic, unfavorable subseasonal variability, ripping ENSO conditions, and general early season hostility are slamming the door shut on deep tropical development for the foreseeable future. The most recent lemon is a good example of what we can get until a lucky MJO-CCKW linkup occurs with more encouraging climatology… mediocre subtropical spin ups. Blah

That's a mean looking MCS dropping out of Canada. My dad might have to abandon his campsite for the second time today. Oof.

Speaking of cansips. Its July 1st update maintains a cold look centered in the Great Lakes despite the nino strength. January is the coldest month relative to average. It warmed some in December.

Nola is worse then Tijuan Walker they have a problem

83 again today for my high. Much cooler this morning with a 65 than the day before. I see signs in the medium to longer range a general troughiness over head. Once we get past Independence Day I believe a more unsettled pattern sets in.

No compete for the Orioles tonight. Another bad one.

Is there any wildfire smoke in the area? I smell it but assuming it’s local. And I heard about the big fire Rosedale but this smells like a campfire and not mixed with chemicals

I dont have numbers as ive been at a pinball tournament. But you could literally feel the change in the air over the past few hours in Charlotte. Went from being "reaonable" to just absolutely soupy.

18z mav went wild

It’s really the south wind that does BTV in. There’s like a localized nocturnal jet that can even strengthen overnight on the VT side of the Lake. You’ll see most stations calm (like Plattsburgh on the NY side of the Champlain Valley), while BTV is steady 15mph gusting 25 in like tropical breezes. And the temp will be like 86F at midnight lol.

According to my records, 2026 is actually the 12th driest first half in DC history, but you are correct that the first half of 2023 was even drier, at only 12.32 inches (5th driest). Interestingly, the driest and wettest first halves in DC history each occurred in the 19th century: Driest: 1872 with 10.49 inches Wettest: 1886 with 35.80 inches It should also be noted that calendar years 2023-2025 were each drier than normal, averaging only 36.27 inches annually. However, during 2018-2022 DCA averaged 50.71 inches -- the wettest five consecutive calendar years in DC history.

Yeah I just read that they've done it twice since 2018! That's damn impressive for that latitude. Maybe with a S wind and enough nightime cloud cover they pull off another one. It hasn't happened around here in my lifetime, BDL record is 79 back in 1955.

Time to start a July thread! Latest weekly EPS for July.

High of 90 today. 3rd 90 of the year at MSP

Last year it was super humid out here. We also had monsoon type rains that would blow out gravel driveways. Looks like the humidity is gonna happen again this year. First couple summers didn't have this many days of high humidity during the day. I've had to invest in dehumidifiers!

Feel like BTV is usually a candidate for that too in these heaters.

Wonder if we have debris clouds tomorrow. Seems possible.

Extreme heat watch here ( north central md) for Thursday and Friday I beleive

They dropped ours from 98-100, to 94-96

Average end of June day here. High of 89, low of 70. Month end stats: Highest temp: 98 Lowest temp: 55 Highest dew point: 84.5 Lowest dew point: 44 Rainfall: 4.55"

BOS is probably gonna stay above 80 Thursday night. Congrats.

NYC forum he was good when it used to snow.

DVN lowered us to 93 today, but we still came up short and hit 91.

That's definitely concerning

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.5 0.8 2.0 2.5 1.8