All Activity

430a update…. Still pinging. Just from looking out window we never flipped. What a bust by HRRR. Fire tgat thing into sun. Need always remember that the warm layer always wins.

31F and light freezing rain. Must have gotten a batch of heavy freezing rain last night though. All the tree branches have that grey haze of ice on the branches, and my 7 ft holly bush is so heavy with ice that it's drooping halfway over.

North facing spot still has snow

Great little event

WB 0Z EURO for the 16-17 period. EPS does does have an eastern trough.

Im not sure I understand what he is trying to say here in the bold.

Over to mostly snow now with a few pellets mixed in

Lol pepsi co but the Frito Lay division.. I had to find something up here.. I got sick of driving back and fourth to westfield every day.. mostly do the leominster area.. first stop is bjs this morning put shit up and order its a pretty good gig.. pays well plus get good mileage. benefits are amazing usually out by 12 to 1 and Noone bothers me

Never never had a chance here. Always looked like mostly a mixed mess nop with a couple/few well north

0.65” of rain here yesterday. Eastern PA definitely looks to be denied a full torch this weekend as cool air damming, cloud cover and maritime flow off the Atlantic have a firm hold east of the mountains. Meanwhile from the Laurels westward, increasing breezy southwest flow is going to make for much warmer temps, likely making a run at 65-70 or so on Saturday. Sus Valley may eventually mix down 50s to near 60 later Saturday/Sat night as a weak frontal passage approaches. Mon-Wed is the real time frame where it looks quite warm, as it has looked consistently on models for like the last week. Tuesday is the best chance for at least the southern half of PA to make a run at 70ºF ahead of the next system. Some difference between Euro and GFS with the Euro being much more expansive in PA with the very warm temps and GFS more confined to southern PA. Much more uncertainty abound beyond that, big differences between the Euro and GFS. Euro has been way colder around the St Patty’s day timeframe and also has a storm on tonight’s 0z run. GFS bottles up cold air more in Canada and runs a further north storm track. Both models and ensembles develop the really negative WPO, which should put a lot more cold back in Canada. They’re also pretty firm on a pretty positive AO and NAO though, which would suggest cold intrusions into the US are limited and brief. Difference area is the PNA, where the Euro/ensembles (and Canadian) reverses a pretty negative PNA to positive to set up western ridging and a chance at the kind of storm it puts out at 0z tonight and holding a cold pattern more. The GFS op just keeps the PNA solidly negative and its ensembles do reflect the other models more with the reversal but is more neutral. I’m fairly pessimistic overall on any decent snow chances in that timeframe mainly due to the +NAO/AO, but building a western ridge even briefly would at least allow for a window to try to line something up.

Congrats!

24.2° -SN 2.1”/0.28” Looks like sleet mostly won out south of here

Snowpack is officially gone. There’s a shady spot in my yard that still had some remnants left. Today’s rain washed that away. All that’s left now is the pile at the end of my driveway. Overall a very impressive duration, I had snow on the ground there for a month and a half straight.

Agree Time is ticking

about 1.50 inches of rain for nyc.

That's our chance, mid month time period. After that it starts getting really dicey climo wise around our area

Significant cross polar flow pv attack mid month and snowstorm chance on 0z ECM

Tell me about it

@Damage In TollandI see what Gibbs meant now with the EURO ENSO guidance that came out today...easy winter outlook if that's right. Could still get a biggie in latter January or February, though.

Let's go !

Since I checked, flipped to sleet/zr in the last 10 min pouring

There has been only one March in which GSO didn’t get down to 32 the entire month: 1945. But their coldest in April of 1946 was a much colder 25! RDU’s warmest coldest in Mar was above 32 three times: 1919, 1945, and 2024. Of those Aprils of 1919 and 1945 had a coldest of 32 or lower. But April of 2024 didn’t get down to 32. That means that the earliest last freeze was in 2024, which was Feb 21st! Can you believe it?!? That record is safe this time.

Looks like Scooter was right....probably be 2-3" tops....still grainy crap. Oh well...off to bed.

Never had a chance here. Plain plain rain.