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.63”

^This is going to be about the best El Nino/-PDO analog we are ever going to get. You can probably also flip this Fall/Winters anomalies around in the future for La Nina/+PDO

Still waiting. Looks like we get about 1/4" at best. That 10" event is beyond my experience - tops was 8.90" on 27-28, 1971 at NNJ, PRE dropped 3.8" during daylight on the 27th then Doria 5.1" in the wee hours of 8/28. PWM had 9.62" on 10/21/996, also 2.78" the day before. I'm confident there was a 10/24 in there someplace.

This has to be the wildest Orioles game I have ever seen.

Greenfield has gotten that much in the past 15 minutes.

I'm tanning

Fak’ dumping!

Debating heading west just to be in this

So true and the fact I was able to stay with this storm for 3+ hours.

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts...

1.08” of bore

They’d be +1.5F with the old normals

Radar shows it finally pulling west and north of Albany proper but damage is clearly done.

JTWC says it is at 130kt, a strong category 4 (supertyphoon) possibly rising to 155kt, which is much above the category-5 critera.

We need the PDO to go positive IMHO. Bastardi looked at it recently, and mentioned 23-24 as a year that occurred (Nino and -PDO). It tried to go cold but the cold ended up along the spine and front range of the Rockies. There was no mechanism to get the cold into the East for long periods of time. The needed QBO cycle(for cold, snowy) is what is counterintuitive given the solar state(dropping flux at the back en of this cycle?) and ENSO combo. Now, the PDO has moved towards neutral this year. That index really likes to double dip, but this has been a severely negative episode for several years, and I wonder if it flips positive for a bit. However, it could briefly go positive or neutral and then back negative.

You guys have some nice storms building from the SW. Be sure to unplug the force field projector.

Buddies of mine are sending videos from upstate. Parts of Albany proper are under feet of water. Even Stuyvesant Plaza, uptown by UAlbany, is flooding.

Yesterday was the first day in 12 days where ORH was AN +0.5F MTD. Today will drop that a bit

I agree with your thoughts here. I follow weather a lot and even I don't really understand the meaning of the "Tornado Warning" well. When I hear the alert, I'm instantly thinking there's a tornado somewhere on the ground near me, but the truth is that the warning is a predictor that there might be one on the ground near me or one could form near where I am.

Great question. One of the guys at WxBell maybe had an article about that. The best winter scenario might be opposite of what I think is normally best. I hate to guess. Let me go look. But the correlation w/ a strong Nino and PDO is tricky.

Not my station, but 0.01” here too. Just a hundredth feels like a deluge. I’m 4…not 154.

Man what a stein. Did not expect that. Maybe more develops.