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NWS GSP chat says they will upgraded to a warning this afternoon.

It seems like parts of LI have done well this winter. NJ, with the possible exception of right along the NY border, has had a lot of sleet during both bigger events. It's definitely been a much better winter than the past few with lots of minor events and one major. But out this way it still feels like we're waiting for something to break right.

But don’t forget the messenger ticks. You need some leeway for those so these next two runs are really important. Fingers crossed!

Yes crazy gradient around here

Yea I mentioned in the main thread about how everyone was tossing the 18z nam yesterday because it looked wonky. Im not one to believe the accuracy of the long range NAM, but if it starts spitting out different solutions that dont match up with globals, you at least have to pay attention to it.

Still seeing the graphics on rah NWS saying 6-13 range. Expect 8. Low end 3. High end17/19 for Raleigh

Very well-done. One minor adjustment I’d make would be to move “A” to encompass a *little* more of SE VA…as 3-7” seems a little too conservative for Norfolk, IMO.

I think the different audiences has to explain a lot of this, right? Brad P. has different considerations to make as a TV met. Huffman is probably just more free to speculate. Though I do still value how open Brad P. is in communicating his thoughts for someone in his position. I think that's the right way to do it (kinda like the ACC's new football review transparency).

Low of 3.

There has to be a few similar cases from 1970 through 1999 when is rarely snowed/had KUs. Especially the 70s which were cold. Have a hard time believing we didn't have a fast flow at times back then. Do not know if they even tracked it.

As I mentioned in my X post, the 12z runs will be the first to contain full data ingestion from direct sampling of the northern-stream energy. With that, I fully expect a tightening consensus amongst the guidance through the 00z cycle this afternoon and evening.

-9F at my house in the valley today, drive up 6 into RI and jumped up to 5F, crazy difference

In a discussion on X Allan said he didn’t see Raleigh getting under 2/3 but could easy be 8/10. We may have to be happy with these large range ideas and be prepared for anything. Can’t be too exact with this or greedy.

stuck with in hand out in arctic cold?

Funny, Nova Scotia isn't lamenting the gradient. I understand the concept of it, but it's an oversimplification IMHO.....I think the struggle to phase near the east coast is probably related to CC, but more so due to the impact that it's having on the tropical convection patterns as the west Pac has warmed disproportionately fast. The gradient saturation idea doesn't really work for me because storms are phasing, just not where we want them to.

Low of 10 here, still haven’t gone below that yet this season.

Slight changes early on with NAM wanting to dig some (we'll see where it goes).

Super Bowl Pete RePete same teams with a snowstorm lurking

Don't go there man. It is what it is. Plus, it's not too common to have back to back big Winter storms anyway. It's that same game every Winter. We're not suppose to see days and days of Snow, just not what is common for our winters around here( although it can happen yes ). The good news? February is still looking great for the possibility of storms as we have more cold air pumping in, so don't give up.

Hasn’t been seen or heard from in months

SREF looks good!

Google it to find discussions, @Picard. There are several ways. For example, round up towards zero, round down from zero, etc. Be consistent with whatever method is chosen.

What we’ve had work out so far are simpler setups that don’t rely on a bunch of factors working out. The super SWFE over the weekend-huge slug of moisture running into a high pressure dome. The two clippers in Dec, we were lucky to be in their path and they picked up some Atlantic moisture. We’re still in this rut where we can’t get anything more complex to happen because of too much interference. Love em or hate em (I still generally hate em), SWFEs are a lot simpler and more predictable several days out that don’t require complex phasing or other factors to work out.

Lets fuse Ditty’s eyelids open so he has to stay up for the overnight runs…

I guess that's exactly what I do, just try and analyze differences run to run. Where I guess I break down is understanding why models show what they do and recognizing, for example, synoptic setups conducive to constructive phasing in a general sense. In this case, I can look at 500mb geo height maps all day and see where different pieces of energy are coming from. Looks like shit from the Pacific (?) and some crap riding down the rockies (?) could conceptually come together, but the setup is otherwise seemingly too progressive (?) Now, there's still a moderate HP center out in front of this, but obviously its impact is much less than in our last system where iirc heights kept building slightly over canada with every run instead of trending the opposite way (?) Obviously this is a major oversimplification but that's the point I suppose - I wish I knew how Again, I am not trying to equate this system with the last let alone say I have any hopes for it. It's just the next upcoming case study.