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You can compare, just not a side-to-side comparison. To compare you'd need a bit of a complex statistical analysis

I was 30 last week with a higher thickness setting going in tho. I dunno.. we're in the time of year where the land battery doesn't get charged during the day. yeah, the sun feels warm and given the right conditions, we can go above average... by quite a bit even. but even on those types of afternoons, the sun kisses the tree tops in the w and it's 10 off the high really fast. I noticed that just the other day when we were 75 for high and it was 64 on dusk.

Light rain here over the past 20 min.

The NAO is higher on today’s GEFS mean vs that of two days ago: two days ago: peaking 10/15 at +1.0 and then dropping to -1 Today peaks not til 10/19 and with that being up at +1.3 and then drops only to -0.7 followed by a quick bounce that gets back up to -0.2 on 10/27 vs it still being down at -0.9 on 10/27 two days ago @Stormchaserchuck1

hm If we decouple there's going to be brick off the edge falls tho

Only about 0.2" for the storm.

So what you’re saying is this years is very easy, and maybe they get the easy one correct? But last year was more difficult, and they flunked it.

Just like the GFS has a bias to overmix I also think it has a bias of going a bit too extreme under radiational cooling conditions.

If you can’t compare to what really happens ..then what good are they? That’s comical.

Also, those forecasts are probabilistic so "technically" you can't really compare them to what happened at face value.

MOS is pretty cold Sun AM. Seems a little overdone in spots.

Enjoy

To be fair it’s a basic strong nino forecast. Compare this year’s to 23-24 and 15-16 and then what the actuals were.

Currently 91/71 for a feels like of 98. Is it really October?

Not far off here. Unfortunate about tomorrow's degrader. One of the best years in many.

Windshield wiper. GFS finally onboard with it too, tho weak and offshore

I don’t necessarily have an issue with the depiction of low heights and a cut off over the southeast trying to form a coastal, but last night’s euro was absurd lol.

bizarre .. the operational version too. Chaotic hodgepodge of perforation in anything that resembles a ridge. That's been a verifying theme, though - holes punched in ridges. seems like there will be holes punched in the heights S of the polar branch, but at this range ... not correct on where those are. That run from 00z happened to time/place one where a book-end TC happened to be getting going ... Goes on to being a nice example of spontaneous emergence from model generated noise.

October wasn’t expected to be that wet. The above normals start Nov and especially Dec

Picked up another .11 this morning. .36 storm total. Watching the developing pattern around day 9-10...

The 12Z Euro still has the E coast storm next week. So, currently the 12Z run non-AI main global models with it are the CMC (its first time) and the Euro (3rd time in a row at 0Z/12Z as 6Z/18Z have yet to have it, which I could tell because 144 hours was far out enough to tell). Also, the 12Z Euro AIFS still has it.

Euro AI misses next week aside for gusty winds on coast but then tries again at the end of its run.

Take a look at the AI Euro, backs it into the coast and gets rain to us by Wed night-Thusday of next week.