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That was the event @ORH_wxman and I talk about where we had synoptic sleet with heavy OE snow at NZW. One of those Jan events.

18z NBM

Lemons into Lemonade!

We need to see some positive trends tonight for the sanity of this board but the fact remains- there will be winners and big time losers here. Losing here carries more repercussions than usual (extended outages, etc).

I've been busy all day. Wonder if the whinging and meltdowns over op runs have been predominant from the usual. (my guess is yes) I just checked the 12z ensembles and they all look fine. All I need to see until HH. On we go.

Wow, you have the sleet/snow line pretty far south. I am rooting for you to be right!

CTP being rightful caution in their afternoon update KEY MESSAGE 2: Medium-range guidance remains consistent in depicting a large-scale winter storm this weekend, tracking from the mid-South across the Mid-Atlantic states. The devil, however, will be in the details, with a tight northern edge snowfall gradient expected to be at play. Where exactly this gradient zone sets up is highly uncertain, with the potential for it lie somewhere across PA. In all probability, the highest winter storm impacts will be south of the Mason-Dixon line, but again with a tight snowfall gradient and the anticipation of heavy snowfall where jet dynamics are maximized, this situation bears watching. Please stay tuned for the latest forecast updates.

I don't remember ever seeing a forecast like this from the GSP NWS. Thursday Night A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Light and variable wind. Friday A 50 percent chance of rain, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 51. Friday Night A chance of rain after 11pm, mixing with snow after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Snow before 2pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 32. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1am, then freezing rain and sleet. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Freezing rain likely before 9am, then snow and freezing rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night A chance of snow and freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Hah go to jail for a wrong forecast

Yet zwyts can post here to tell us he can’t post here? It was confusing. i too agree with the EPS trend gif being my favorite part of 12z, maybe minus the UK thrashing us all again

-12 to -18 C. That sound right, Perhaps I was thinking the HGZ (hail growth layer) or the ideal charge layer for LTG for mixed phase!

Would be nice to pull in 3 inches tomorrow as an appetizer.

Other stuff keeping me in town Saturday. Maybe I enjoy the storm and then go.

Is there one of these for Middle yet?

Yay, meeting time at work. Will return for the GFS/ICON. Hopefully.

No mention of the Icon? I think we're The only ones that actually look at that model lol

I believe the old man is better at forecasting than he is at providing services he was contracted to perform.

I love it when you step out of your comfort zone for early calls

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 314 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is continuing to increase for a significant winter storm for the region Saturday into Sunday. Additionally, snow accumulations increase for upslope snow showers in the Alleghenies Wednesday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Significant winter storm expected across the Mid- Atlantic states late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread snow. Arctic high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures this weekend into early next week. - 2) Accumulating snow is likely along the Alleghenies Wednesday night through Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant winter storm expected across the Mid-Atlantic states late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread snow. Arctic high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures this weekend into early next week. Broad upper troughing will remain established across the Great Lks into the northern Mid-Atlantic through at least early next week. Southern stream energy is expected to interact with very cold air to the north to produce moderate to heavy snow across the area this weekend. Looking at most recent model data, the 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM remain the furthest south and weakest solutions as it leaves more energy cut off while the 12Z EC and Canadian models show more energy getting absorbed into the northern stream. The 12Z EPS and AIFS are more consistent with their deterministic runs while the GFES shows a very different solution to its deterministic run. Will continue to highlight a significant winter storm affecting the area this weekend in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Direct flight, but other stuff going on Saturday keeps me here unfortunately.

@Herb@MAWS I’ve got a work flight Monday afternoon. If they suggest I move it to Saturday to get ahead of the storm that’s going to get a big ol’ negatory from me.

NWS 3-7 day outlook for heavy snow pushed NW

One consistent trend is this is more a Sun (PM) - Mon (PM) or even early Tue (AM) event.

My initial thoughts