All Activity
- Past hour
-
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
he had 90s last march lol -
I think this winter depends on whether we can time one or two big El Niño loaded systems with some cold air and a good track, and that probably happens in late Jan or Feb. 97-98 obviously we couldn’t and 23-24 either, but that was a weird Nino/background Nina hybrid season. I would like to see something happen in December because I always hate going past New Years hoping for a snowy winter generally but zippo in December. It rarely works out.
-
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
SnowenOutThere replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Not necessarily. This would work if the event was random, however, we have strong evidence that our climatology issues are related to human caused climate change. Therefore, it will most likely not revert till we revert the atmospheric forcing mechanisms of climate change effects on the atmospheric/oceanic circulation. -
-
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
why? the climo baseline is about to jump even warmer -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
MJO812 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
-
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
frontranger8 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
So there is a good chance the short term trend for March the past 6 years will revert to a certain extent sometime soon. -
-
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
so? -
This is exactly why when it comes to winter, I'd rather it just be boring than WAW. I think this is what separates the real real heads from semi-posers. Any other time of the year, sure, break the monotony up. But rain at slightly above freezing is downright the most dogshit ass weather you can get imo. I'll gladly layer up and go strolling in arctic conditions, but what the fuck are you gonna do outside in 33 and rain? And frankly, light rain from a cloud deck one physically cannot discern is incredibly dull in my eyes, so all that's left for me personally is to get tilted over the fact that it's snowing instead of raining. I guess approaching/departing systems make for cool sunsets at least...
-
65.5° and not even noon yet.
-
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
frontranger8 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Short term trends and limited sample sizes are a thing. -
Neat, that's a pretty simple way to produce them. I liked how they were easy to interpret but also impactful with the information. Always appreciate your posts and insight...
-
-
Sir, this is a weather forum…not grindr
-
Man that's scary dry looking for the end of October - could probably still drive over Trail Ridge road! Northern Colorado mountains snowpack only about 25% of normal. The southwest part of Colorado obviously looking good for whittling down the drought. In Fort Collins, last winter's snowfall of 22" was the driest since the winter of 1945-46. If things don't start changing soon we'll be lucky to even have 22" this winter... This El Nino is definitely favoring the southwest US with abundant moisture (that's great they needed it), leaving further north high and dry. That pattern just seems to persist - it's now looking questionable that our region will even see our first snow in November :-( Oh well - maybe December or January?
-
-
I'm really proud of how they played in the 2nd half tbh.
-
yeah- it's much more urbanized now. We can see the Reston-area "skyline" from all the way here in Tenleytown, DC.
-
Radar blossoming nice. If only we had some cold air to go with it.
-
Like many of you I've been around. I have lived in (6 months or more) in nearly half the country. I was an Air Force brat and also had a couple jobs that required frequent relocation. While it was great seeing a lot there are few deep roots. If I had to pick a place in this country it would be Alaska. Deep Alaska. Fly my mail and essentials 3 or 4 times a year Alaska lol. That's where I'd like to spend my final years. Fly back once a year to say hi to the family then back I'd go. Probably end my days as Bear food lol. Maybe not the Revenant style though lol. But I absolutely love it up there. Give me a cabin a million miles away from everything. Seen enough
-
Was going to do some leaf mulching this morning, but we're getting some mysterious wind-blown drizzle well out ahead of the storm system. Precip tomorrow looks pretty showery, so good chance many local areas get bypassed by decent rainfall.
-
E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
The latest ChescoWx study is live on the website. The question we posed that many in our area have asked is below. Plus how much has NCEI adjusted for any UHI impacts? The study design and supporting charts are available in greater detail on the site below. https://chescowx.com/phl-airport-vs-neighbors/ -
The latest ChescoWx study is live on the website. The question we posed is below. Plus how much has (if at all) NCEI adjusted for any UHI impacts? The study design and supporting charts are available in greater detail on the site below. https://chescowx.com/phl-airport-vs-neighbors/
