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Last 80's until February?

No argument there, it's initialization of the Pacific, both tropical and mid latitudes, has left a great deal to be desired.

48 here this AM!

Just op-ed'ing about the use of 'climate'-based tools in general. No idea what and/or who is performing. Like I said, if the model's adaptive than the criticism's less necessary there. But that's something that seldom - in fact never as far as I'm aware ? - goes on in this 'enthusiast's sophistication', which is reporting about the construct of tools. Comparing it's components ( unit test) against empirically what is actually taking place, whereby confidences have foundations... etc. yeah right...

Probably at least in part why it's overcooking the Modoki theme.

CANSIPS is def. underselling 1.2 and 3, though, so I see what you are saying. JAMSTEC probably is, too.

John, CANSIPS is really only a hair west of the EURO with regard to the orientation of El Nino, at this point.

Meanwhile the 3.4 sector is at historic levels relative to September +ENSO typology. And I mean somewhere between gaspingly and laughably so ... Kind of hard to think CANSIPs is onto much of anything other than introducing error when 3.4 is the opposite direction of eastern orientation. huh It is what it is I suppose but frankly - and I realize I've excoriated over this in the past... - anything with the letter "C" in the acronym of a model's title rolls my eyes. Unless the C does not stand for Climatology, the given model's machinery has to have some sort of a updated "RONI" analog methodology or it's less useful to me. Obviously ... because we'd be comparing a present day moving goal post on a fixed game field - the two have to change geometry together to be valid... No offense to CANSIPs. LOL if the model's adaptive than fine. But even if so ... the orientation as of the Sep 9 update at CPC just looks like a massive pan-dimension heat bomb from eastern 4 clear to the masses of fish adorning the Peruvian shores. Not sure any sector out there is really crucially 'bigger' in the holistic comparison when the entire thing is nuked like that

JAMSTEC and CANSIPS essentially now shaking hands on the east-based orientation of El Nino this winter, but I do think the hemispheric evolution of the European guidance makes more sense. I think the Japs and Canadiens are overselling that second half flip in the seasonal mean.

The JAMSTEC pulls of the unicorn scenario that I was discussing with @Typhoon Tip in that it's an east-based event that essentially acts as a Modoki due to the residual cool ENSO influence/Pacific basin warmth biasing the forcing west of where one would expect based on a traditional synthesis of the basin. Very similar to what happened in 2023 when it looked like a Modoki at the surface, but ended up heavily MC oriented....forcing pulled westward. Do I want to bet on that actually happening in the seasonal mean? About as much as I want to be locked in thread alone with @forkyfork, BUT it does confirm my early hedge to advise caution to those forecasting a season largely bereft of winter on the east coast once we get to about mid January and beyond. This season appears bipolar to me.

Though I am certain many that frequent here as tropical enthusiasts and mets are bored stiff, I am not. Several, including [mention=1766]vortex95[/mention] have mentioned the importance of a season like this for data acquisition, trends, and analogs for study and future reference. We aren't just setting a record now. We are shattering it. Clearly, we're in rare territory. With the shear values at record levels across the basin (the exception being pockets of favorablility over the GOM and SE CONUS), we're going to have to consider the potential of null and void development over the MDR and central Atlantic basin persisting into closure of the season. Normally, we get a hybrid system that transitions into a fully symmetrical TC somewhere during October and November. But if the upper-level environment remains status quo, that may not occur this year. Really, the only potential could come from a CAG system during late September and October, but it's going to take some luck. I still do think we get a hurricane in the GOM or WCARIB, but we've only got two months to see that to fruition. Clearly, whatever is transpiring with this record-breaking El Niño is overwhelming whatever has anchored the extended +AMO decadal cycle and shut that down, at least for now.

ya I know

This record breaking 600 dm ridge is ridiculous for September.

Something we’ll all be posting Dec-Morch is how we are all in the 50’s

The southern plains and southeast really can't take a break from the heat. It's like there's a permanent ridge over Oklahoma now.

Next week looks closer to average. But it will feel much cooler due to how warm this month has been so far. So something approaching more fall-like weather.

Low of 51

Got down to 51 with a dew of 48. More of this please!

With that said…40.9° here. Mins

Low here of 57 a couple miles from the Bay. Some spots on the Bay were 63-65

Next week looks cool and wet

"Supreme Court rejects Trump's plan to limit mail-in voting in midterms" -CNN Gee, maybe there's hope for the sovereign identity of the U.S.A.