All Activity

Congrats Ray on the winter crumbs of you and Dryslot

Wife #6 Enroute?

cold lake breath

This subforum is down right hostile at times. Haha

The PNS has 11.6 for Highland Mills, i am assuming that was you. I have it on the map. Are you sure about 11.2?

March wants to go out like a lion up here on the euro and gfs

Enjoy the record high diesel and $5 a gallon gas my man.

It’s like we knew

Outside the modern era was surprisingly hard to find times those two stations overlap and had good data but I did it was from 1948 to 1965 and I finished that analysis last night along with instead of just doing daily I did an hour by hour one because I had hourly data for that era and for this era so I will have a comparison up soon. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Terrible news. I always enjoyed his enthusiasm for weather.

Looks like a 70° warm up on Sunday for the usual NJ warm spots away from the ocean influence followed by the typical backdoor influence that we usually see this time of year heading into early April.

Only a matter of time before we get some of those prolonged ridges here. Doesn't take much. Our first warm-up last week set record highs here and the earliest 80F at NYC.

He worked for Accuweather in 1979-80 and visited the DC area a few times, but he was just a fan of weather in general I think. But he used to tell me the Mid-Atlantic subforum was much friendlier and open to outsiders compared to others and that was often why he posted here.

Flagstaff had a higher temperature than their average July-August temperatures in March...crazy

Stayed very mild overnight. 60 today, mid 70s tomorrow. Nice sunset out the front door last night.

First day of spring. 25 degrees and a frost. Sounds like a not bad weekend.

Ill wait of course until we actually start to see things evolve the next few weeks but I think I remember Bluewave mentioning awhile back about what would be the threshold needed to overcome such a dipole of west to east Pac. We saw ONI from 2015 reach 3C in the intra timeframes overall 2.8 trimonthly and we were still left with a healthy WPAC warm pool.

Yea, if this one ends up discharging all of that record breaking, pent up WPAC warmth….holy s*it. Paul would not be exaggerating, we would be talking a historic level El Niño. This one is also developing as a “classic”, canonical east-based/East Pacific (EP) event like 1997-98 did, which has been a staple of the strongest El Niños we’ve ever seen

A couple of points to add to Don's. The absorption bands of CO2 and H2O are different. There's overlap in some regions, but CO2 also absorbs in regions where H2O doesn't. More importantly H20 has a much higher boiling point than CO2 and is a liquid at atmospheric temperatures while CO2 is a gas. Because of the higher boiling point, the amount of H2O in the atmosphere is controlled by temperature. As Don points out, CO2 is more important relative to H2O in the upper atmosphere where heat is radiated to space and it is too cold to hold much water vapor. Per paper below, CO2 is the earth's thermostat. CO2 controls the amount of H2O in the atmosphere. If there was less CO2 there would be less water vapor and vice versa. As the paper states: Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO2 and the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial greenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound Earth state. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1190653

Drought update: I have received 4.63 precipitation so far this month and 6.47 for the year. Andrea Michaels FOX43 DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS A little good news for parts of the state! This morning, the weekly Drought Monitor Update was released, and there are some improvements. The most notable change was in South Central PA, where much of Mifflin, Juniata, and Perry counties saw improvement, along with portions of Dauphin and Lebanon counties. They went from D1 (Moderate Drought) to D0 (Abnormally Dry). The far eastern Lehigh Valley saw spottier improvements, going from a D2 (Severe Drought) to D1. Hopefully more rain will keep it coming!

We have not been able to flush out the WPAC warmth which at some point has to be redistributed. The last couple El Nino events have not had intense WWB events and this potentially has the chance to uproot at least a good portion of that warmth. This certainly will be interesting to watch going forward. I know we have had many discussions on here about stuck patterns/ new norms but eventually they do break down, I do wonder what such an event would cause. Time to watch and learn. Here is 2015 and well 2023 virtually was non existent for a wind anomaly in both March and April. I do wonder with it being so far north what this could mean. We did not reset the Pacific pattern like we saw with the large push in 1997/98 take a look at subsurface and surface anomalies for an example. So maybe in order to tame/remove this heat engine that has been persistent we start to push the bounds of what we have known. To add the breadth and overall strength of such an event is important as placement.

The only ones I can find is 1982-83 (super el nino) -> 1986-88 (double year strong el nino) -> 1991-92 (strong el nino). The first two events combined to produce the first jump in global temperatures. Pinatubo prevented another temperature jump after the 91-92 event. Then again, this was all under a largely +PDO period.

All i have to say is wow

Yeah, crazy! I don't think there were many northern Orange County official reports out of frustration with that storm LOL. Albany's map for that storm comes close to showing how the cutoff went. You can see in this satellite shot from their page that I'm was in the black hole.

Spc brings back the chance of some thunderstorms on sunday. Right now they have idea of deeper convection in far western pennsylvania. Hopefully plenty of sunshine breaks through Saturday and Sunday.for those of us who need it. SPRINGS BACK BABY !!! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html