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Looks like 4 more days of 80F+, 60s Sunday and 50s for the highs early next week. I'm definitely less productive/lazy the warmer it becomes... 72F

Records: Highs: EWR: 88 (1960) NYC: 87 (1941) LGA: 86 (1941) JFK: 80 (2006) Lows: EWR: 25 (1943) NYC: 27 (1943) LGA: 28 (1943) JFK: 33 (1962) Historical: 1921 - Two mile high Silver Lake, CO, received 76 inches of snow in 24 hours, the heaviest 24 hour total of record for North America. The storm left a total of 87 inches in twenty-seven and a half hours. (David Ludlum) 1927 - New Orleans LA was drenched with 14.01 inches of rain, which established a 24 hour rainfall record for the state. (The Weather Channel) 1944: The maximum temperature for the date is 89°F. in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1949 - A hailstone five inches by five and a half inches in size, and weighing four pounds, was measured at Troy NY. (The Weather Channel) 1956: An F4 tornado passed along the western and northern fringes of Birmingham, AL during the afternoon. The twister killed 25 people along its 20 mile path. Most of the deaths occurred in the Stacey Hollow and McDonalds Chapel communities. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1958 - A tornado 300 yards in width skipped along a five mile path near Frostproof FL. A 2500 gallon water tank was found one mile from its original position (it is not known how much water was in the tank at the time). (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in the Southern Atlantic Coast Region. A tornado killed one person and injured seven others near Mount Dora FL. Drifts of hail up to two feet deep were reported in Davidson and Rowan counties in North Carolina. Myrtle Beach SC was deluged with seven inches of rain in three hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Death Valley, CA, was soaked with 1.53 inches of rain in 24 hours. Snow fell in the mountains of southern California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms soaked the eastern U.S. with heavy rain, pushing the rainfall total for the month at Cape Hatteras NC past their previous April record of 7.10 inches. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced severe weather from west central Texas to west central Arkansas during the late afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms spawned a tornado which caused more than half a million dollars damage at Fort Stockton TX, produced wind gusts to 65 mph at Dennison TX, produced baseball size hail at Silo OK and near Capps Corner TX, and drenched southeastern Oklahoma with up to 4 inches of rain in two hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1998: An F3 tornado hits downtown Nashville causing extensive damage but no loss of life. An additional 62 tornadoes touched down in Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee. These tornadoes caused 12 fatalities and approximately 120 injuries. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Nashville.

That would be brutal for eastern winter enthusiasts...would mean warmer and less snowfall overall, but perhaps more large events.

72 / 57 in the peak of the heat today / tomorrow with mid 80s to low 90s. Friday still very warm but falls back to the upper 70s - low/ 80s. Weekend is warm but clouds look to cap tems on Saturday and timing of the front sunday / storms. Cooler week near / below normal 4/20 - 4/28.

Nice Fata Morgana optical illusions this morning distorting MWN area.

Feel like that stuff was always going to stay north. I woke up myself and watched maybe 15 minutes of the light show to my north Kind of cool being down here in IKK and watching lightning that’s out over the lake

My house gets warm, especially upstairs, but it cooled down fine last night, especially with those strong south winds.

Agreed, I live in an old ass house (mid 1800's)with poor insulation and it only got to 70, windows closed, on my second floor yesterday after a high of 86.

That's some pretty impressive elevated instability by the NAM overnight. Even the latest HRRR is pretty solid. Think we want to watch for whether we can sneak into the northern edge of the steep lapse rate plume which should at least graze the coast. Regardless, still decent elevated instability but could be looking at something along the lines of 500-800 J versus upwards of 1500+ if we can get into those steeper lapse rates. Perhaps some risk for large hail?

Somewhat lower odds of a washout in the 10-14 day timeframe we are watching, but odds continue to increase for at least some rainfall

We picked up between 0.03" to 0.25" of rain with more across southern areas. Today will be our warmest day of the week and the year so far with temperatures reaching the middle to upper 80's. The record County high for today is 89 degrees set back in 1941 (Phoenixville) and 1896 (Kennett Square). Still unseasonable warm tomorrow through Saturday. We chill back to below normal by Monday and temperatures in some of the higher spots may struggle to escape the unseasonably cold 40's in the afternoon. There will also be a potential for a frost or freeze by Tuesday morning. Below normal temperatures appear increasingly likely for the remainder of April. Best chances of some much-needed rain looks to be Friday with better chances with the cold front on Sunday afternoon.

We picked up between 0.03" to 0.25" of rain with more across southern areas. Today will be our warmest day of the week and the year so far with temperatures reaching the middle to upper 80's. The record County high for today is 89 degrees set back in 1941 (Phoenixville) and 1896 (Kennett Square). Still unseasonable warm tomorrow through Saturday. We chill back to below normal by Monday and temperatures in some of the higher spots may struggle to escape the unseasonably cold 40's in the afternoon. There will also be a potential for a frost or freeze by Tuesday morning. Below normal temperatures appear increasingly likely for the remainder of April. Best chances of some much-needed rain looks to be Friday with better chances with the cold front on Sunday afternoon.

Mini splits are a great invention-alot less ugly than window units hanging out of the house.

Torch!!

Perhaps the rapid warming which began before the typical El Niño lag in the spring of 2023 is part of a larger change to more frequent strong to very strong El Niños. It’s possible that this is part of a shift in what some researchers have called the PCC. This warming occurred with the early Nino 1.2 rise in SSTs in the early spring of 2023. The cold tongue that was prominent in the EPAC during recent decades has been replaced by much warmer SSTs even during recent La Ninas. This line of research is still very new so it will probably take more observations to develop this theory more fully. But it would be a significant occurrence for the global temperatures and the weather patterns if this new climate state could produce 2.0+ ONI El Niños separated by only 3 years apart. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52731-6?utm_campaign=related_content&utm_source=HEALTH&utm_medium=communities The eastern tropical Pacific has defied the global warming trend. There has been a debate about whether this observed trend is forced or natural (i.e., the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; IPO) and this study shows that there are two patterns, one that oscillates along with the IPO, and one that is emerging since the mid-1950s, herein called the Pacific Climate Change (PCC) pattern. Here we show these have distinctive and distinguishable atmosphere-ocean signatures. While the IPO features a meridionally broad wedge-shaped SST pattern, the PCC pattern is marked by a narrow equatorial cooling band. These different SST patterns are related to distinct wind-driven ocean dynamical processes. We further show that the recent trends during the satellite era are a combination of IPO and PCC. Our findings set a path to distinguish climate change signals from internal variability through the underlying dynamics of each. Much recent work focused on whether equatorial Pacific cooling over past decades is driven by anthropogenic effects or arises from internally-generated climate variability, like the IPO. A definitive anthropogenic link to the recent trends would allow us to reliably predict a cooler tropical Pacific. As the tropical Pacific is known to be a climatic pacemaker, for (at least) the near-future this would mitigate global warming via ocean heat uptake and low-level cloud feedbacks. Instead, if the cyclic IPO dominates the recent cooling, we may expect a strong warming when it reverses. In support of the first possibility, we have identified an emerging climate change signal in the tropical Pacific across different observational datasets and we call it the PCC. The PCC has distinctive ocean-atmosphere dynamics that differ from those associated with the IPO. We further demonstrate that the recent trends during the satellite era, which have been the focus of significant attention, result from a combination of IPO and PCC. The emerging PCC SST trend pattern features a narrow band of cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warming elsewhere. This SST change is linked to thermocline shoaling/SSH decreases in the central-to-eastern Pacific and dipole-like changes in zonal surface wind stress. In contrast, the recurrent IPO-driven SST trend pattern is characterized by a meridionally broader cooling in the eastern Pacific, zonal dipole-like thermocline/SSH changes and an overall strengthening of tropical Pacific zonal wind stress. We have shown that these distinct ocean circulation changes are a response to different wind stress patterns. These oceanic responses account for surface cooling in the eastern Pacific, with the thermocline shoaling playing a dominant role in the PCC cooling and enhanced zonal advective cooling mainly driving the IPO-related cooling. While basic geophysical fluid dynamics proved sufficient to attribute the observed oceanic changes to surface wind stress, we have not addressed the origins of the wind stress patterns associated with the PCC and the IPO. New research is needed to elucidate the wind changes, but our leading hypothesis is as follows. In response to GHG forcings39,40temperature change in the upper troposphere are stronger than at the surface (Fig. S4), increasing atmospheric static stability. Consequently, the initial SST and surface wind response to rising GHGs might not be amplified as efficiently via Bjerknes feedback as is that for the internal modes on interannual to decadal timescales. Given the differences in thermocline and ocean current patterns associated with the PCC and the IPO, the coupled feedbacks related to ocean dynamics are also expected to differ, potentially contributing to distinct climate pattern formations for decadal variability and climate change. Additionally, climate variations outside of the tropical Pacific may influence the tropical Pacific trade winds26,27,41–44. Further, it has been argued that pronounced decadal-to-multidecadal SST variability in the Atlantic Ocean is also dominated by the response to the same external forcing that the tropical Pacific encounters45. Perhaps the co-occurrence of these long-term trends in different regions is not simply a direct response to rising GHGs but is influenced by inter-basin interactions. More work is needed to disentangle causal relationships among the long-term changes in different basins46,47. Throughout this paper we have taken for granted the widespread assumption that the IPO is an internal mode of the climate system. However, while we worked to distinguish between the recurrent IPO-related decadal variability and the emerging PCC signal, we are open to the possibility that these two may have become coupled together by anthropogenic forcing. They have much in common: shoaling of the thermocline in the east, enhanced upwelling somewhere in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. It seems reasonable to postulate that if the response to radiative forcing is the emerging PCC pattern seen here, then it could initiate coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that favor a negative IPO state that also has an enhanced SST gradient24. This might explain why the most recent IPO swing has been extreme and robust (Fig. S1b). If so, this suggests that in nature forcing is projecting onto natural modes of variability, while it is not clear whether climate models can reproduce this behavior. A new perspective on how internal variability interacts with the climate change signal will be needed in future studies.

There was definitely enough moisture to get me pretty wet on my bike ride last night. It actually felt pretty good considering how hot it was.

Your house must have 0 insulation. A few less $6/pint IPAs a week and you can probably save enough for better insulation, maybe even a mini-split. Not really a dunk. Recognize it early and pull the plug before kids >>> pretend it's working just to protect the institution of marriage while deep down everyone is miserable.

I start following ENSO in the blog in about a month, once I do the wrap up on the prior season and we clear the spring prediction barrier. Should be pretty clear by then.

Whole house fan here. Sucks the heat right out. Too early to run the CAC and haven't had it serviced yet

Two reports of tornadoes in my part of the state. The one earlier mentioned around Carson City and another near Otsego and Plainwell that crossed US-131. Just lots of rain IMBY. My county was briefly under a warning but I don't believe anything ever touched down.

Looks like it’s going to be an easy ENSO forecast as well….High-end strong (at the very least)/super. Given everything that we’ve seen up to this point, WWBs, TC’s, subsurface, +PMM, MJO, OHC, etc. and the models projecting a strong +IOD event to develop in the next several months, it’s going to be able to very easily sustain itself and start a Bjerknes feedback loop

Managed to scrounge up 0.54" from the early morning elevated leftovers. Brings April up to 4.78". Today/this evening has been looking like our best shot for heavy rains all along, and still looks that way.

That’s Thursday. Last night was fine in the 50s.

Would make for an easy forecast in terms of temps.