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EPS will say keep the coats and hats handy .. spring nowhere to be seen

AI Euro is showing what i was referring to. Roll over ridges normally teleconnect to an eastern US trough. The models this far out are normally pretty worthless, so take with caution.

I love yall and this forum. To cope, we use gallows humor. Today, we coping HARD. But if a model can go from a overrunning winter dream to a juiced cutter to nothing every other run, I have hope.

I've been reading weather forums for half of my life and that was the most unhinged thing I have ever seen. Yikes.

When you start to see people posting headlines like this, then you know to expect the opposite is most likely to happen. It's like when people on Accuweather were commenting in the beginning of March 2015 that April and May 2015 were going to be even colder. The opposite ended up happening, with May 2015 being record warm (or very close to it) in many places in the Eastern US.

4 days or so until the next cold shot is about to move in at the end of the run

Not a lot. But it’s definitely an outlier…even west of its AI.

The AO/NAO is trending negative again, which fits the seasonal norm. We are getting into the part of the winter season where the AO/NAO have even more influence and can overcome the PAC. Given the thermal profile established across N America if we hold a favorable atlantic configuration I doubt we enter a sustained shit the blinds no hope period...yes we will get temporary warm ups but we will also get cold air intrusions behind fronts and with timing will have opportunities the rest of the way.

That’s during the morning of 2/13, the morning before Valentine’s Day. I was referring to a storm on Val. Day that’s been showing up on some runs and being posted about here. Regardless, it’s still way out there and will change.

Hurricane Hunter is refueling data will be ready by no later than 12z model runs Friday, February 6th 2026.

1121222111122211121111221111111122211....

Mid to north mountain special Madison-Yancey-Mitchell- Including the cities of Faust 102 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches with some locations up to 6 inches along the Tennessee border. Winds gusting as high as 65 mph. * WHERE...Madison, Mitchell, and Yancey Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

I use dense rank sorting which doesn’t skip rank numbers. DENSE_RANK is a SQL window function that sorts data and assigns consecutive rankings to rows, ensuring no gaps in the sequence, even when ties occur. If multiple rows share a rank (e.g., two rows are ranked 1), the next rank is 2, not 3. It is essential for top-N analysis without skipping rank numbers. Key Aspects of DENSE_RANK: No Gaps: If two rows tie for rank 1, the next rank is 2, not 3. Ties: Identical values receive the same rank. Syntax: DENSE_RANK() OVER ([PARTITION BY <columns>] ORDER BY <columns>). Use Case: Ideal for top-N analysis where multiple rows might share the same top value, but you still want a continuous ranking order.

That last one was epic, I'd love to buy a repeat. Also 12 overnight, 35 now. While above freezing this week I haven’t even sniffed close to a normal high temp in so long it feels very significant.

Temp this morning here was -5.6 so a hint of things to come. Just got upgraded to a Warning with 6-8" and up to 60 mph winds. Still not completely sold on that kind of accumulation with Huron mostly and Erie especially closed for business. While this is nothing historic of course, it's still going to be a pretty solid ~24 hours out here in the Boonies.

Severe works for me, I would much rather hear the thunder rolling versus transformers blowing...

If we get an inch or two of snow Friday night into Saturday, then the brutal cold and wind, could be like a near blizzard at times with blowing snow.

Legit can't wait for Saturday. I've got a shift at the farm outside. I will take extreme cold over heat any day of the week. Weather like this lets you know you're alive!

what does the google deep state say?

Euro op tries to enage in Sping.

12Z GFS and Euro ask “what Val. Day storm?” They fwiw show sunny high pressure. But that’s still 9 days out, a relative eternity in relation to model accuracy.

I don’t know why they don’t talk about wind in their disco. It’s a legit, strong wind storm that’s going to cause problems.