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6 inches into the city on this run. .

ediate metro and still 5 days out this is not set in stone we will still see some snow

The CMC will lead the way...

Talk about blue balls that run damn what a monster .. We still track

As noted previously, CMC looks like the RGEM through 84.

One plus of this IVT scenario is that it’s mostly after dark Sunday evening so no solar radiation concerns and slightly better temps. Otherwise, a lot less pluses lol

INS: “some really nice members on the GEFS”

Verbatim, yes. Right now we shouldn’t care about verbatim The upper levels improved significantly and were 4 days out. If this were happening tomorrow, sure, we could just dismiss the threat. But it aint I take that 500mb chart and roll the dice any day of the week, it’s not far off AT ALL

The longer this system is delayed, the better our chances.

NAM/GFS for me

Not a fan of the ENE trajectory as it gains lat though.

Main takeaway so far is we're not out of this yet. I was hoping for higher confidence today, but looks like confidence will remain low until at least 0z Friday. Yes it sounds like I'm kicking the can, and maybe I am. But all these vorts flying around and a minor change can make a huge difference. This isn't a typical SS wave casually approaching from the SW in a linear manner.

it still is snowing in the immediate metro and still 5 days out this is not set in stone only 1 model run

Just close enough to wave goodbye as it slams Cape Cod. Late developing Miller B's are never good for this area.

If that ridge is east of Idaho it’s game over.

nooner GFS keeps hope alive. ticked notably W with SLP and 500s a bit more neg tilt. A nice step back towards something, and not away from it.

Gfs just moved back towards the coast and north a couple 100 miles since last night. Wouldn't take much more. .

50-100mi further west is not a big ask.

Yep... that is why I said Close... just need a couple of things to happen

Yeah, and? The 500mb low passes well South and East of the benchmark. There is no mechanism to bring it North. The trough digs too far South.

Jesus what beast. I'm sure Ginxy will have a box of tissues next to his Mac loading H5.

For who cape cod?

GFS has this really bombing out close enough still plenty of time

Gfs is heartbreakingly close haha

Not really, its mainly detached from the coastal. Instead its a great H5 pass I think with a good amount of moisture fetch to squeeze it out. The real blizzard conditions are reserved for the Atlantic ocean.