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The MJO ended up going strongly into phase 8 (see image below) after all despite models a couple of weeks ago going only modestly into it and extended ensembles a month ago turning left in 7 toward the circle/missing 8. Bastardi back in April predicted W Car/Gulf TCG in June based on his expectation the MJO would go into 8 despite the extended ensembles not showing that. He was right about the MJO. Will he be right about the Atlantic basin June TCG? Models/ensembles are hinting at the chance for this late this week:

Drought

The amount of wind we have had this spring has been absolutely annoying. It seems like every day is gusting 15-20+ mph.

Nice. Sometimes we get our best storms on these slight 20% chance days.

Really pouring and hailing Special weather statement came too late

If we are to believe the CFS then 1+2 will have a lower anomaly than 3.4 by later this summer. There’s a period of time where 4 is almost the same as 1+2. I still think the model forecasts for 3.4 to get well over 3.0 are crazy but I guess we’ll see.

Yup, we bought a 1 story ranch 2 years ago. Love it! Congrats on the new home

I'm jealous lol.

Yeah I see those dark clouds to the north and hear the thunder. Just a few drops here as it misses me just a couple miles to the north.

Bordering on severe

Much more impressive than last night Crazy wind now

Damn that came out of nowhere

No damage from last night's storm in my back yard, but my neighbor four houses up had two mature maples snap about 10 feet from the ground, one of which crushed his Jeep. Major bummer!

Downpour and hail

This is pretty cool.

Hot

Thundering

More pop up showers

We do 70+ dews a lot more than we used to. We deserve a 75+ category now. Gotta change with the times.

.06 here, very disapointing

79

Just going to screech in the banter thread for a moment. It's exasperating to see an sustained increase in social media weather trolling from accounts that have a sizeable following. It's either "SPC/NWS is over hyping", or "SPC/NWS is asleep at the wheel". Combined with low budget AI images, the online noise from these accounts are tiresome. Normally I'd ignore them, but we're seeing these posts leak into comment threads and email chains. It's almost becoming a full time job dampening down the silliness at work.

Thanks, snowman. A key will be to see whether or not 3.4/4 fall severely behind regions 3/1+2 to determine whether or not this will be a very strong form of E based. For those who prefer it be/not be overly E based like ‘97, you’ll want 3.4 to not warm too steadily/keep warming steadily through the summer/early fall overall.

Here comes the EPAC TC season (TD-2 EPAC). Likely very many to follow this summer….

I missed a 90 yesterday so no "heatwave". Made it to 89 after a low of 66. Didn't have high hopes for the line to hold together but it did. There appeared to be mixing of cooler air during the day though and eventually once the gust front came through, it knocked the temps down about 15 degrees ahead of the rain. I did get 0.26" out of that, my first rain for the month. Currently partly sunny and 84 (my high for the day so far) with lots of cumulus, after a low of 65, and dp is 68.