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Wow, I didn't realize 2023 was that warm. Yeah, that's sounds about right then. Probably around ~3F above the 1991-2020 mean seems a good bet. I was thinking 2023 was like +3.8F... it was a couple of weeks ago since I looked at the numbers on NCEI.

Looks like a lot of people were interested

Thank god the depressed Brett is back. SEMA rejoices.

He got C-Teased.

Agreed! While I still don’t think this will be a memorable winter and I’m sure we’ll have $hit the blind stretches, December has shown this winter can and will produce frozen. I’ll take it as a positive sign moving forward. As far as today’s storm… Looks like a quick hitter, in this afternoon and out of here before midnight. Not too disappointed in the forecast cause I thought all along this wasn’t all snow imby. Again, it beats 33F and rain. Happy Boxing Day!

Welcome to the insanity

Just to note, I really dislike 'unicorn' hunting in the very long range. Mainly because of past lessons personally learned. But, we are also not in a shutout pattern and we've seen stuff pop up under 120 hours. So while the LR has a flat western ridge, a split flow coming into the west coast, ridging up top, etc Imma keep my eyes on the next 5 days for now.

I'm surprised he's sticking with that forecast. Normal WAA usually always has last second big north tick in snow, the mid layer warmth is usually under modeled, the surface level cold is also usually under modeled. I'm guessing he sees something with this. I know there wasn't many analogs showing up so he might be right. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Have you ever jackknifed? It must be highly annoying to look out your passenger side and see your trailer pressed up against the window...

Maybe it sucked you back in.

Now it's stingy as hell with QPF though lol. The 3k only has like 0.4" liquid here. Thankfully that's on its own. This model should be taken out back to the woodshed and decapitated. I can see something like that though if the main overrunning snow band goes north of here and we're stuck in subsidence waiting for the meat of the precip to come through.

Yes. Now he’s back.

lol that’s awesome. Basically just halved totals for SNE in one run. Completely loses the push of heavy snow here. Sucked us all back in for 2 days only to pull the rug out 12 hours before

3k is not SW

Got to 8.1F this morning. Not expecting more than maybe some coastal flurries tonight. There's about an inch or two of glacier in our pack that I'm thinking will hold on if we keep the Monday system more mixed/frozen. Then GFS has another minor event on NYD to refresh. I rather face the inevitable return to work from winter vacation feeling like we're in deep winter, which hasn't been the case most of the last several years.

Big difference from last run below.

As soon as Tblizz gets excited we get porked. I want depressed Tblizz back.

Sobering up.

NAM no longer shows sleet to Plattsburgh. one of the benefits of being a veteran at this hobby. Knowing when to stay the course and not panic over the NAM.

Interesting, CTP has removed freezing rain accretion from the HBG forecast. Guessing the lack of precip is really cutting down on the light rain toward the em. Today A chance of snow and freezing rain before 3pm, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet between 3pm and 4pm, then sleet after 4pm. High near 32. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tonight Freezing rain and sleet, mainly before 11pm. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 27. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Totally agree. Horst was one of best in the Northeast/Mid Atlantic, period. And the warm bias mantra does tick me off, but it could be my “snow tinted” glasses, lol. .

That’s kinda my expectation out here in Berks, Mt Holly seems to have a pretty good handle on this one but it’s soon now casting will be interesting no doubt

NAM with the Lucy baby.

the NAM really diminishes that fronto quickly. It's like a 2-3 hour period (if even 3 hours) of very heavy snow and done. Western CT/MA could get 6-7" and EOR could get like 2-3" lol. That cutoff is going to be pretty wild. Might have to re-think about the Fairfield County jack...that's probably best area to get thundersnow and rates closer to 3" per hour

Yep