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How much you want to bet? $100 I see at least 3” of snow?

Nothing is downgraded it is because we’re not getting 5” plus of snow. It is a sleet and FRZ fest.

NAM is the only model where I’d be frustrated were it to occur but the I can’t rule it out. NYC, north and east look best ATM as well as LHV

You implied the NAM was wrong regarding snowfall last Tue... Not that posters who misinterpret its output were wrong. But you can't hold misinterpretation against the NAM. I agree with you about this event. The 18z NAM was at or past the outer envelope of ensemble solutions. It also has a tendency to make larger run-to-run changes than other models. That makes its outlier depictions unlikely.

NAM still a little too bouncy, other models been steadier. I like the HRRR + globals combo until the NAM settles in to something for 2 runs in a row.

did we get downgraded? wwa is now on the alerts now winter storm watch? why does it start at 7am heard we wont get anything till 2-4pm ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

Clear. Windy. 21.9F

White Plains , NY I see

Ironically, I think you're going to see the highest QPF, just on the edge of rhe sleetfest. You're sitting pretty, brother. Trust me. This setup is going to offer a surprise.

And now for a Christmas selection by Nat Clean Coal...

Max temp profile did ok using Bufkit. But these are the maps being posted to make claims about the snowfall (past storm and the upcoming one). Thus, my critique covers those maps. As noted previously, virtually none of the individual EPS and GEFS ensemble members supported the idea that NYC would see < 1” snow from the upcoming system. In fact, the quality guidance has consistently favored a 3”-6”/4”-8” event for the NYC area.

The ones that are still likely sleet for NYC?

I'll be lucky to get 2", but ignore the NAM with respect to WAA at your own peril...no, it's not a SWFE per se, but you're still advecting a warm layer over top of a cold air mass.

Because one thing its very very good at is sniffing out warm layers when other models don't

May even wind up as the warmest meteorological winter month on record - there are currently 4 Februarys above 40F, but I think there's a chance we post something obscene like a 42F CONUS monthly mean for this month.

Knew he was from NY before I checked.

The heavy banding would help keep the mid level warm air at bay. The 0z NAM 3k has kinda crappy QPF across the area which you can see in soundings-when precip is patchy/shredded you see the mid level warm air show up more. The major overrunning snow shield overshooting to the NE is always a possibility here.

Yup. From extreme N. Jersey, Westchester, on south. It's may be time to call storm basically cancelled.

my question to you guys is why are you using a model that's literally about to get discontinued? look at reggie and rap those are good mesoscale models

I don't think there has been much model flip flopping over the past 48 hours. A few mesos were really suppressed at the end of their ranges initially and the 18z NAM jumped pretty far north. Other than that, most models, esp globals and ensembles, have been pretty consistent. That should lend confidence. And in fact it does. The problem is there have been plenty of cases in the past where a late shift in a model (often the NAM) heralded a true shift in outcome despite model consensus. These cases being memorable probably biases the memory and skews perceptions of likelihood, but it has and can happen.

Won’t hear a single bad word from me if we somehow pull 4-6 from this

i'll be paying attention to reggie from now on and rap

The city, immediate metro, LI, and SW/W CT deserve this one, enjoy it guys. Fairly narrow and overall small fun zone with this one and that’s fine - hope you had an awesome Christmas for those that celebrate! Nice day after event here. I’m good with a couple inches if we can squeak that out, brings me up to just about double digits already in Dec - can’t complain about that.

NAM did come south, still sucks from extreme northern nj, westchester, and down. This thing was extremely north before though.

Looking VERY likely that this will go into the books as the warmest December on record for the CONUS, may even blow past 2023 by a large margin.