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Definitely not. It's going to get squashed south by the driving cold. Pretty disgusting lol

Just wait a run or two. We have no idea whats happening 5 plus days from now. Every run is a different roll of the dice. Just look for signals. I still say most Decembers where I grew up (Granby) were nearly snowless until at least Christmas, aside from a dusting here or there. I find it unusual to have 3 inches OTG here right now

6z Euro has it, but a bit weaker.

What a way to run midnight going into Christmas eve.

The 6z GFS has returned to a much colder look. The 0z Euro is definitely warmer after mid-month. Its ensemble is not as much. Both the 0z GEPS and 0z GEFS are not warm. I think the warm-up looks to be set just after mid month. But there is this on the LR GFS, and take with a huge grain of salt...a major league anafront. This would be a nightmare or travel. You don't have to guess what the weather looks like under that. Lots of uncertainty after the 20th, so we'll see.

The Dolphin Storm. Or maybe Platypus.

The only time we really had a colder storm track was in 2017-18 and January 2022. Other than that, the classic storm track with a sharp cutoff south and east has been a recurrent theme since 2016-17 (that was even the case in many of the 2021 storms). That appears to continue this year. This doesn't bode well for snow lovers in coastal areas, like Atlantic City.

gonna get pretty grody here after the mid week rainer/brief warmup hopefully we can get some of the lake week/weekend dusters to trend up with time

@usedtobecould score a good one here.

Something could pop near the 15th I suppose. 00z gfs has a snowstorm. Euro has a clipper on the 14th. No real concrete signal.

36 and rain. Shocker

As long as you have a standing wave there (phase 4-6), you aren’t going to see a classic canonical phase 8 response

Yeah, dewpoint at 36 is not ideal. With the heavier precip expected to stay to the north, I would be a little surprised if we got even a dusting at this point (still should get some light snow this afternoon to set the mood at least)

Measured 2" just now. That's pretty much what GSP had for a storm total here. You guys upstream are going to like this! Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Well yesterday you loved the storm 12th-13th and felt great about it. So we lost that , lost the clipper Wednesday and now looking at Grinch .. oh man

Im not expecting anything up here so good luck down there. It's pretty warm in my backyard this morning at 35

From Blacksburg AFD: 00z RAOB still indicates a shallow warm layer just above the surface and below 850mb, which would indicate a brief period of rain occurs at the onset of the precipitation. Any rain should be brief as indicated by the wet bulb temperature, which supports all snow once the column completely saturates. Looks like this was expected. We should be fine.

These charts below do a good job showing the current burst of stronger forcing in the MJO 4-6 areas. I suspect it’s one of the reasons we aren’t getting the canonical MJO 8 even with the RMMS in that space. This is why I like to look at the total forcing when they are out of alignment with the RMMS. Notice that the Pacific Jet hasn’t relaxed and we have a dominant northern stream. So even though we are experiencing a colder pattern since late November, the warmer storm track of the last 7 years hasn’t varied. This was the case during some of the colder intervals last winter also. Models are beginning to come into better agreement for the relaxation of the cold as the falling AAM and MJO 4-6 forcing supports a broad ridge across the U.S. mid to late month. This is a seasonal shift that we have seen frequently approaching mid to late December over the last decade. We had a big jet extension last December at this time also when the temperatures moderated.

My concern is that at some point we are going to lose the BN temps (for the most part) we have had for almost a month now and trend to normal or maybe AN.

Yea just was about to post that. DC and points south might get a surprise out of this.

Probably won’t matter up here but it looks like precip is way north of where the HRRR thinks it should be.

The clipper at hr 174 on the 6z GFS is my absolute favorite

Rain and 35… temp rose a good 3 degrees overnight.. ugh

Pushing it back to Christmas. Just like the ones we used to know.

First flakes (although very light and might have had a brief period of drizzle first) No hours of virga this time.