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That's a monster +AO pattern lol Since the Solar Max peak in 2024, the warm seasons 2024, 2025 and 2026 have been very +ao. I think it's more of a decadal state, and just minimizes the potential for 09-10 type -NAO or 15-16 type +PNA

A seasonal model is never going to predict more than like a +3F month. That's because their accuracy is low and they have a large range of error. East-based Nino/-PDO is about as bad as it gets for long range predictors of Winter CONUS warmth. Hopefully the AO help this year. Baltimore/DC average high never really goes below 40 so we do need some below average temps.

I appreciate Bobby's video forecast. His forecasts are fast, straight to the point and his daily video forecasts are available about as early as anyone that i'm familiar with on youtube .

Heavy showers have moved from offshore W to my home at 1:40AM, a total surprise!

The CFSv2 progged RONI peak continues to drop steadily with more drops likely: 7/22-31: ASO/OND +3.5 8/9-18: OND +3.45 8/19-28: OND +3.2 8/29-9/7: OND +3.0 with most of the blue lines (most recent 8 runs) lower

Very interesting looking at the images from the respective years. This year’s Atlantic has really warmed up compared to earlier in the season though we’re seeing most of the warmth in the subtropics.

Not for me. 9 months of grey skies and cool to cold weather here where I have to wear slippers inside during those 9 - this is still fresh as a daisy.

here we go lol

I’m down probably 1.5” on that graphic and couldn’t care less, ha. Nice, dry weather is perfect for enjoying the outdoors during the autumn. Even if it didn’t rain at all in the next 6 weeks, life would go on just fine.

Its been over for months lol. Other than hopium. Blow it up and start over. Elias the gas lighter has totally fucked this organization. Hopefully the owner is smart enough to finally see it. I have my doubts.

Tornado sirens are going off in Cedar Rapids.... radar indicated near the airport.

The issue is the marginal temps these models are depicting, particularly when we get a shot at a coastal storm. Normal/slightly above temps on the seasonals could be a signal for a bunch of chilly rain. The PSU perfect track rainstorms lol. We will likely need a -AO/-EPO to be present in order to overcome the onslaught of Pacific air into our source region and allow colder air to move southward. Not a prediction, but a potential fail mode, as we have seen before in strong Ninos. Location matters ofc. Interior at elevation may do ok. I root for Ninas here since the epic winter of 2009-10, as they have mostly produced avg to slightly above avg snowfall. Ninos have pretty much sucked since then.

I might be misreading it, but that shows a 6-week anomaly total for most of New England in the -0.5 to -1.0 inch range. Certainly not anything overly concerning? Instead of ~4 inches of rain over the next 6 weeks, most get 3.0 to 3.5 inches? Assuming that product is close to accurate, which is always iffy.