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Whitewater rafting on the Connecticut?

Nasty.

I think that tells you all you need to know in terms of seasonal temp anomaly, which really only has about a 1/10 chance of being cold in this modern era, anyway...so it really doesn't tell you much.

.76” from last night.

That's the $64 question for this year. Will we see the same type of "gobsmaking" global warming we saw in 2023 or will this year behave more like a typical strong/super el nino. So far I'd put this year in the typical camp, with global air temperatures lagging the rise in ENSO and global SST. One aspect that has held back global temperatures in the past 2 months has been very cold temperatures in Antarctica associated with a strong AAO+ regime. In 2023 AAO was strongly positive in January (see AAO table below), reversing by March, and staying negative through September. So the AAO boosted global temperatures in the first half of 2023 but are holding them back this year. One of the many factors that contributes to a different outcome in 2026 vs 2023. If the AAO reverses in August there will be an added boost in global temperatures on top of ENSO. We will see. 2023 2.304 0.554 -0.258 -0.921 1.452 -0.438 -0.818 -0.038 -1.050 0.535 0.097 1.510 2024 0.922 1.043 -0.058 1.005 -0.073 0.210 -0.597 -2.150 0.098 -0.567 1.020 -0.826 2025 -0.080 -0.271 0.733 1.138 0.509 0.209 0.753 0.357 -0.709 -1.236 -1.324 -1.136 2026 0.848 0.489 0.492 -0.125 0.544 2.506

Showers in OC.

Seriously. I had the same thought. Feels like I’m wearing the air. Pretty dense fog here next to the lake too

0.3" last night, a lot of thunder and lightning

82/81 at MSP this morning. Here’s a tidbit from KMPX At 2 AM, the dew point at MSP climbed to 81. This has only happened on a few days in recorded history. Per the Minnesota State Climatology Office, an 81 degree dew point was measured on July 17, 2011; July 18, 2011; July 19, 2011; and July 30, 1999. The all-time record is 82 set back on July 19, 2011.

Idk about storms but not sure ive ever experienced this kind of early am heat and humidity, feels like a sauna

down in the 50s again, what a run heading to the river to enjoy some morning coffee

NYC can have a similar temperature as Newark on days with S to NE cooler onshore flow. Newark gets a cooling breeze off the bay and Central Park doesn’t since it’s not right on the water like the airport at Newark is. A few days ago with more offshore flow Newark was warmer again since they didn’t have a cooling breeze. The days when the trees have a more significant cooling influence relative to the airports are more offshore flow days with SW to NW flow at Newark. Also cloudy days since this removes the cooling influence of the trees when it’s not sunny. Onshore flow similar temperatures CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 234 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 26 2026... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 85 310 PM 99 1940 87 -2 85 1989 2005 MINIMUM 65 526 AM 57 1953 70 -5 76 AVERAGE 75 78 -3 81 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 2.72 1985 0.15 -0.15 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 4.31 3.84 0.47 3.21 SINCE JUN 1 6.83 8.18 -1.35 5.50 SINCE JAN 1 20.65 26.55 -5.90 20.56 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 T 2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUN 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUN 1 0 14 -14 10 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 10 13 -3 16 MONTH TO DATE 359 343 16 437 SINCE JUN 1 674 588 86 767 SINCE JAN 1 829 672 157 849 ................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 10 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (190) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 15 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SE (150) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 4.5 822 CDUS41 KOKX 270634 CLINYC CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 234 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026 ................................... ...THE CENTRAL PARK NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 26 2026... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1869 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 85 211 PM 98 1940 85 0 85 MINIMUM 64 536 AM 55 1920 70 -6 74 AVERAGE 75 78 -3 80 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 3.24 2000 0.15 -0.15 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 3.69 3.78 -0.09 3.43 SINCE JUN 1 7.08 8.32 -1.24 5.89 SINCE JAN 1 21.51 27.49 -5.98 24.45 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUN 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUN 1 4 15 -11 16 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 10 13 -3 15 MONTH TO DATE 314 327 -13 368 SINCE JUN 1 576 553 23 640 SINCE JAN 1 714 634 80 697 ................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 9 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (40) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 16 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (50) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 1.6 Offshore flow Newark 5 degrees warmer with no cooling seabreeze CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 219 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 22 2026... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 90 348 PM 108 2011 87 3 80 MINIMUM 72 1159 PM 56 1944 70 2 67 AVERAGE 81 78 3 74 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 1.78 2019 0.16 -0.16 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 4.31 3.21 1.10 2.70 SINCE JUN 1 6.83 7.55 -0.72 4.99 SINCE JAN 1 20.65 25.92 -5.27 20.05 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUN 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUN 1 0 14 -14 10 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 16 14 2 9 MONTH TO DATE 326 291 35 372 SINCE JUN 1 641 536 105 702 SINCE JAN 1 796 620 176 784 ................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 22 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (350) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 32 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION W (270) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 14.2 CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 432 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026 ................................... ...THE CENTRAL PARK NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 22 2026... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1869 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 85 249 PM 104 2011 85 0 81 MINIMUM 72 1202 AM 58 1871 71 1 67 1890 AVERAGE 79 78 1 74 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.86 1880 0.15 -0.15 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 3.69 3.17 0.52 3.42 SINCE JUN 1 7.08 7.71 -0.63 5.88 SINCE JAN 1 21.51 26.88 -5.37 24.44 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUN 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING TODAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUN 1 4 15 -11 16 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING TODAY 14 13 1 9 MONTH TO DATE 281 275 6 308 SINCE JUN 1 543 501 42 580 SINCE JAN 1 681 582 99 637 ................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 14 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION W (270) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 24 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION W (260) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 7.2

There were quite a lot of hail cores and "large hail" last night... I saw numerous statements and warnings for ping pong to baseball sized hail

no need

US National Weather Service State College PA Monday - July 27, 2026 @6 AM EDT: Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be moving southeast across PA this afternoon through Tuesday, and lingering into the midweek period over Eastern PA. This will bring the threat of localized severe weather in the form of some instances of strong/damaging wind gusts. Then, the focus will shift to areas of potentially excessive rainfall for Tuesday and Wednesday. Here is a loop of forecast model radar reflectivity - every 2 hours from 10 AM today to 2 pm Tuesday, followed by storm total rainfall from 2 pm this afternoon trough 8 pm Wednesday

51° here for the third day in a row. Never made the 40s.

The current -PNA is mostly a reflection of how strong the ridge is north of Hawaii. That’s the really strong 500 mb -PDO we are getting in July. The SSTs are mostly a lagging indicator since the 500mb drove the PDO decline since June. But there is probably a background feedback between the SST and atmosphere which has kept the -PDO so negative during the 2020s. This summer PDO drop has been a common theme during the 2020s with a gradual rise to less negative by the winter. So our new 2020s seasonal cycle. We can’t really predict the PNA beyond the short term so too early to put out a precise winter PNA forecast. But just to say that the 2023-2024 super El Niño with a -PDO had a less positive winter PNA than 2015-2016 with a strong +PDO DJF 2023-2024…….PNA…..+0.58…..PDO…..-1.34 DJF 2015-2016……..PNA……+1.42…..PDO…..+1.07

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-280730- Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A few strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, small hail and frequent lightning are possible later this afternoon and early this evening, but it appears that the bulk of the storms will arrive mainly after midnight tonight or the predawn hours Tuesday. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and localized flooding downpours are possible Tuesday, with the bulk occurring near and to the southeast of the Interstate 81 corridor. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

RGEM gone wild in western CT

49.2 beautiful out

Down to 50F so far in E CT, can we crack the upper 40’s?

3k Nam goes ham in western CT but end of its range doesn’t quite show what happens for everyone else. Think one jack is probably SWCT and maybe secondary ern/SE MA. It doesn’t end there, aftn stuff Thursday and maybe even Friday. So many get a good drink.

Ahh, the warm front! Your lawn will thank you! LOL.

That a good point. Actually I just looked, and ydy MLS avg high is 91. 102 is wicked hot for us in New England, but when the avg high temp in July is 6-9 F cooler 91 that in places like BOS/PVD/BDL, it is not so hot to residents in Miles City. The notion that 90 is some kind of benchmark for hot wx is misguided, but try telling that to the MSM. Once again, the E Coast bias, more specifically DCA-BOS, applies here, as if that is typical climate! You often hear X percentage of the CONUS or states AOA 90 on any summer day, acting like that is universally unusual. No it isn't when about 40% of the country has an avg high 90 or higher! Geez, 90 in PHX or LAS in the summer is a *cool* day for them! I was told one time the way to calculate hot, or unusually warm, is take the avg high for the location for a given day, and go 2 standard deviations above that. But I am not sure if you can apply that in all seasons, since big temp swings and deviations are much more common in the winter than summer and the closer to the polar regions you get, the bigger the swings overall.

CoastalWx gonna pull out his warm front QPF fcst rule of thumb?