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End of day finally tried to clear up a bit right as the sun was going down.

It sure can. Keeps blowing my lighter out...

Shot around the 2nd and shot around 6th is how it gets there.

Wonder if 18z gfs can do something. It’s a more progressive look out west so I doubt we get enough cold air push

It's definitely at least a slight reversal though, right? I would say (just looking at my blues and greens ofc) that the front end of this threaded event looks a bit stronger and the possible follow-up event is also back. The overall synoptic evolution looks somewhat closer to what other models are showing. Combined with what chi storm was saying that's good enough for me

The data we want is at the top of Sideling hill, not the bottom

Oh yeah

Yes, Op now that I look at it. I thought it was the ensembles on Pivotal. Too any models, and I never thought that would ever come out of this weenie little mind of mine.

GFS still not playing nice on 18z

Borrowed this from @Carvers Gap. This is the most recent run of the Euro control run for the month of December. Not a bad look at all. Still will be a lot of back and forth but positive. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Beast mode

Volatility

The only thing I could see is the fast flow helping a system from over amplifying and if there's enough cold air in place we get some overrunning. That's prob the best we can hope for

I don't think the point was that there is no alternative, just that we are hooked on oil in so many ways that there simply is no way to fully transition away from it at this point. And as far as energy/power goes, we are a long ways from being able to fully rely on electric. Not to mention the challenges that the current AI race is adding to the mix, with the enormous need for power there.

This is about as strong a look we've seen for it to get into phase 8 in several years. I'd be surprised if it did not get there, and yeah, ensembles just never see a moderate-strong MJO wave impacts it seems. Its why so often here when we see a raging 3-4-5 forecast but the D16 ensembles look like January 94 you more or less know that look will be way off if that 3-4-5 wave verified.

i didn't post a pivotal weather map though

Yea he brought up some good points: our economy and life-style is currently dependent on oil, and oil is running out. However. he's wrong that there is no alternative. Electric vehicles are out competing combustion vehicles in an increasing number of markets and getting cheaper all the time. Meanwhile the best oil reserves are increasingly depleted. Its not going to get better for oil.

The default setting is no missing days, so it treats any missing date as ending the streak. You have to allow some number of missing days to avoid that.

Is that the Op you’re talking about? I saw the ensemble mean.

There has been a +PNA in Jan for all 11 cold ENSO winters that had a -PNA in Dec since 1983-4: -1983-4: -0.31 to +0.97 -1984-5: -1.60 to +1.63 -1996-7: -1.23 to +0.63 -1998-9: -0.09 to +0.16 -2008-9: -1.41 to +0.61 -2010-11: -1.78 to +1.29 -2012-3: -1.01 to +0.55 -2013-4: -0.86 to +0.97 -2016-7: -0.35 to +0.28 -2021-2: -2.56 to +1.01 -2022-3: -0.66 to +0.22 ———— What kind of PNA are you expecting in Jan?

Yeah some deep cold in SE Canada.

Believe the table is calculating electric energy out vs fossil energy in over the powerplant lifetime; i.e., coal (or gas, oil) used to generate power is included. Fossil fuel use during operation of the wind turbine is also included. Agree that society gets an energy payback from use of coal or oil. The problem is that once burned the coal it is gone forever. In-any-case wind has a good energy payback. Here's an extensive study from Europe covering 33 different kinds of turbines. The median payback period is 6 months. Note that the energy payback for wind has to be good. Its the cheapest source of electricity in windy areas like the great plains. If it didn't pay back it wouldn't be cheap. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0196890421005100

Heh...see what ya did there, lol

I understand and feel the frustration but I can’t get with jumping in mid-November. Things change too much, though admittedly it rarely feels like they change positively. I realize this kind of winter doesn’t satisfy you much, but when it can just takes one storm to hit climo, it’s way too early to quit