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Hey, it’s active, and it’s cold…we roll the dice some more. Quite a Good winter so far for interior CT….and the second half about to kick off in a few days.

Another 8 inches would make yinzers go crazy.

The good thing with that is that's not necessarily something the CAMs should have a good handle on at this range I don't think. Probably should lean on the globals until they lock in on a synoptic scale setup, and then use the mesoscale models for localized features once things are settled up top.

Could be a solid 3 to 6 if it holds

Yep! Lived in the carmel commons area and she owned the cookie store there. Everyone sliding around and stopping mid hill then sliding backwards had me cracking up. Spent the morning pulling peeps out of ditches Good times

There's a whole lot of blocking to the north thanks to the -AO. I wouldn't count on much, if any. It could even be pushed south because of it....too far south that is.

Unfortunate coincidence. Could've been partying in an absurd mansion in Aspen. But I don't like traveling during the winter in case it snows here, so all good anyway. Not upset at all

With the 500MB pattern the way it is forecast to be and has been forecast to be for days this is not a surprise. Closing off upper low along the GA coast moving ENE, tilt of the trof which was not at all favorable, kicker feature and a sloppy surface evolution this was going to be a reach for anything decent up here, except for maybe a NJ coastal grazer and maybe central and eastern LI and even that is failing. Maybe someone, Don? can confirm when was the last time we had something major up here with a 500MB low digging to the GA coast? Certainly nothing I can remember from the recent big ones. Something that far south is going to peak and occlude way to soon and would be quite a feat to get a surface feature from off the GA coast to vicinity of the BM. My friend in RDU is excited, been waiting a long time for something decent like this.

You mean Beavis? Almost as sick that one member that enjoying heat waves and complains about thunderstorms knocking down afternoon highs. That’s just demented.

Last year that would be considered a monster storm. We were measuring events in tenths of inch...ridiculous. 19F/Predicted low -2

NYC now up to 22” season to date vs 15” avg and the most as of this point since 2015-6! It’s been one heck of a season so far, based mainly on 3 significant snows. If they get avg the rest of the way, they’d have a total of 35”. Fwiw, my prediction for the season total, which was made after the 1st storm last month and is the only prediction made for this, is 40”.

Is it possible for you to get extra lift from a E/SE wind? .

Thanks, but even if one takes the GFS, GEFS and EPS over the last 3 runs for Philly, for example, the average is about 1/2" and those models contribute ~60% to the NBM according to your post with the SREFs having 30% input - if that's the case to get from 1/2" for 60% of the input to the 4.8" seen for Philly on the latest NBM, that implies the SREFs would need to be 12+" for Philly at only 30% of the input, which seems impossible, as the SREF snowfall (10:1) from the last few runs has been in the 2-4" range for Philly, unless that snow is at 30-40:1 ratios (and Kuchera is showing 20:1 inland). But I will say I didn't realize the SREFs were counted so strongly and it at least explains probably half of the NBM numbers for inland locations.

Ah, a more classic fall line storm. Would hurt to risk raining in D.C. the second precip moves into the area again, but it's refreshing to see something "normal"

This has been the worst winter in the Pacific Northwest since 2014-15. In Portland there’s been no snow or ice at all, and just about a week of freezing temperatures at night. Snowpack in the mountains is awful too.

Seeing more models key in on the leeside screw zone. Don't like it...

No doubt will get the north trend that we dearly needed this weekend lol.

"Why can't they be like we are, perfect in every way. Oh, what's the matter to kids today!" (from Bye Bye Birdie) IMO, it's more the lawyers that the kids.

The Euro AI has had it for multiple runs. That's all that matters right now.

What’s the GFS hybrid AI? This is not ratioed… .

i think it's common knowledge here that many winter threads will go off the rails at some point with some mi winter weather history or some other back-and-forth. ...which is why it's a running joke.

You'll do anything to push it south.

Gfs likes the 5th

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17wqPsoBzE/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Euro said no so I gotta stick with that until proven otherwise, lol