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Since 18z most models have surprisingly budged toward the GFS at h5, not the other way around. 00z is gonna be interesting

Not tried that one. I know of it for sure! I do have these waiting to share with friends one day soon though.

Looks like we are gonna be in a severe ice storm based off of the euro. 1.3 inches of ice is awful. Everything is still trending north. Even DC is getting significantly lower accumulations. I’ll start following the short range models now.

They shouldn't be doing it from a mobile phone!

I’m guessing those lower totals in the southwest mountains are from the Euro amping the system so much that it changes over to just plain rain? Not complaining, if we’re not gonna get any snow, I’d rather it just be rain.

Looks the same as 12z to my eyes.

10:1 map from NYC has 6.3 Philly

What site did you get that map from? Thanks!

How about instead of whining about it, you pay for a model subscription and lead the way next time since it wasn’t to your standards.

Agreed.

One more then Ill be back for the NAM

I'm going 6 flakes for here in the south side yard. 0-3 in the northern.

I’m starting to think there will be a strip of 20”+ from about MMU to HPN. That’s where there should be maximum dynamics while staying all or mostly snow. But we still have 60+ hours to go so a lot can still change.

The worst play by play all day!

Heard it on the streets of Easton?

Hey man, have you tried their deep orbit stout that's out right now? Talk about a sipper.....could enjoy that thing over an hour in front of the fire.

It looks like both the 18z euro and euro terminator nudged south.

I wouldn’t go higher than 8-12” for NYC/LI/I-78 to I-80 right now because of uncertainty and models like the RGEM. It’s possible the GFS is right but it’s wiser to hedge toward how SWFEs usually are which is they try to amp and trend north unless there’s the brick confluence wall to stop them, and sneaky warm layers that try to move in quicker than expected. But the GFS is another possibility if we can catch a break with a further south transfer and decent coastal development, in which case those 12-18” amounts really can happen. North of the city especially I-84 corridor I think is a lock for 12”+. We’re lucky this is a SWFE setup where it’s running into a huge overrunning dome/high pressure which means even the amped models dump 6-8” before changing over and again-the sleet will definitely have its own impact and thicken up the snow pack.

GFS just has been so constant..... it will need to be throw out with the NAM if it's wrong on this.

The further north track of this winter storm will allow a thick layer of cloud cover to build in throughout the night that will keep us much warmer than we thought 2 or 3 days ago. Lows will be in the -10Fs but with no wind we`ll just be uncomfortably cold versus dangerously cold

While everyone dissects and bisects the Euro, I’m warming up the liver for Other Half tomorrow.

I busted out laughing when I saw this. Exactly how I feel

Euro trending towards the GFS dying that primary out faster. Been the theme of the day. Couple more ticks like that an it's showtime!!! See y'all at 9pm for the nam

18z Euro snow- CTP close up