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After a weak to very weak start to the SPV it looks like the long range forecasts for strengthening starting in November are going to verify

Entertainment only but the 00z gfs bringing the upslope snow. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Some heavier stuff with this line.,.. gained some strength.

Florida State is making Penn State look like the paragon of financial prudence. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Congrats on the rain!

Yeah I have an ob of sorts. This is hard to believe, but it is ONLY 57 55 degrees, with a dewpoint of 43 degrees. The wind is light out of the north If only I had some steady light to moderate rain to go with this delightful 55/42 coolness, I'd be so damn overly happy I'd run up and down Cabela's Blvd in Buda at 3am stark frackin' naked. HOWEVER tomorrow, BACK up to 94 degrees. This subtropical high just won't give up. Its the Summer With No End. I think there is no such thing, as a Pattern Change. Not this low sun season and not in Texas.

I really haven’t seen any reputable sources say very snowy to the point where you wish we skip winter. I think the most reasonable outlook I’ve seen the most from people that aren’t fishing for clicks and trying to spread hype is that below normal temperature stretches are definitely on the table but that the most likely outcome during those stretches would be cold and dry. Seems like our chances of getting any significant snow events is fairly unlikely as the ingredients would have to come together in a way that’s not typical for the pattern we will have in place this winter. Another winter where we will likely need to nickel and dime our way during the cold stretches if we want to get close to average snowfall.

Some water coming to the drought zone. Likely overdone but a soaking rainfall en-route.

This is turning into a bit of an overperformer. Precip bands are almost out of the south right now.

There was an even crazier one 4-5 tiers high just north of Denver when I was driving into town this morning about 9:30. Couldn't take a picture though. Glad I was not in an airplane. First frost this morning, 32 degrees then it was 78 this afternoon. Typical October. The Front Range mountains are practically snow free after last week's warm rain.

Right at 0.50 Nice eventful evening....

Looks to be a 11:30 p.m. or so start time. Doesn't look like it will last long, 2 hours or so?

Raining hot and heavy here.

.30 - Alexandria.

It was pointed out that there may be possible first flakes occurring now at snowshoe wv.

Banter

Tornado warning in PG County.

Felt like a March warm sector day with the gusty southwesterlies... now we wait for the cutter's cold front to come crashing through

Winds picking up, gusty. Jumk to the West, 65F...

Extreme winds today, my power went at 2:30 and just came back on a few minutes ago. .85 rain, and the temp is down to 45 already.

TW for Fort Washington

The group of years you picked is pretty terrible for the last full three months. Its completely wrong for the jet stream pattern over Asia for three months, and that determines what will happen for the build up of cold air in the Fall for us in the USA from both Russian and Canadian sources. You can already see the issues with it - because Asia is opposite the correspondence of the 'sin wave' so to speak puts the wrong signature over Greenland. My simple blend had it warm in October, yours is cold. The warmth I had over Northern Canada/Alaska is what will matter for the winter, and I showed it very warm for the period shown. You don't, you have the half degree warm / cold muddled crap that prevents any chance of your outlook getting US temps right later on when cold air is sourced from the North.

The skinny line was worth about 0.10”. Hopefully can double that with the trailing region.

0.60” with showers continuing. Another event where the airport at Martinsburg failed to report the precip that fell there.

PDO is still solidly negative, but it is less negative than it was last October.