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74° in Lebanon…glorious .

What happened to the March 17th "event"?

skating outdoors on the first nice day of the year is peak existence

March has been difficult to get much in the snow dept since 2020

Yeah I guess it really is over. Crazy how it just abruptly ended. Kind of a hard stop

A Super Nino would almost certainly suck....but I'll roll the dice any day with a mod/strong Nino as long as it's not east based.

there's still a good spread, but a majority are a quality hit along/north of the border currently.

summer is coming for you. you can run and you can hide. might as well throw on shorts and flip flops and enjoy, like a normal person would.

Record highs set at Chicago & Rockford today.

I think I'm going for an initial target of Galesburg, IL. Multiple models seem to be maximizing the parameters there near 0Z Wednesday, and some initiate discrete convection. In addition, just anecdotally there seems to be something about the west side of the Illinois River valley from Beardstown on up to Peoria; multiple notable tornado events have occurred there in recent years.

Crude front month plunged 10 cents in just 25 minutes a little while ago! I wonder what happened. It’s now down 5 on the day to 86, which is an amazing $33 lower than its 119 peak just 17-18 hours ago! This is an historic day for crude oil in terms of volatility. Edit: Now I know why. I just read that Trump says the war could end soon. But he could say the opposite tomorrow and it go right back up. After all he only days ago said it could easily go longer than a month. It must be a nightmare to trade this and stocks due to whiplash! But that also provides opportunities if timed right due to luck. Is this a cousin to the TACO trade?

Looks like we could see some lows in the mid to upper 20's here in the NC piedmont next week. That will at least temporarily unalive some of these early insect hatchers.

I haven't really followed the Winter 26/27 talk, but are we talking about a Super Nino? So we'll get a more active subtropical jet with more storm chances, with above normal temps. Kinda roll the dice with the storm tracks and lack of artic outbreaks..but could be worse I think. Eh, I'm think i'm mixing that up with Strong El Nino..in which case we might be fooked

The PNA index could fit an even in there and it wouldn't be an egregious correlation ... However, given to the time of year and the tenor of the guidance combined, those factors lean me to thinking it's more a period with active cold fronts - each imparting testicle squeezes to spring/warm enthusiasts ... while simultaneously not doing jack shit for winter/cold holdouts - who probably would smugly take that as a win because their petty but that's something else. LOL

The next week only gets us to Monday the 16th..it was that day and beyond when it starts to look decent. But we’ll see. You on the cape…I get that. Temp went up as I drove…73 degrees..just wow.

Or no rain at the very least.

I'd safely say we can punt the next week for any meaningful snow in SNE. If it's not going to snow, just give me warmth

I have a little bit on a shady north facing slope and piles of course but even those are going fast. It was weird driving to work this morning without any snow banks aloong the roads, its been a while.

he said the trough not the colder than normal cold air supply in Canada which will be tapped into epecially from back door fronts down here polar vortex is being shoved south by the strat warming event through at least March could be 75 in DC and in the 40's up here down the road

And... poof. Snow's all gone. I'm good with spring now.

Ya, it’s all Cool. I don’t think the chances are all done though. I think we see a trend back at some point. But my truck is reading 72 currently …so whatever.

Fair question - should have been clearer. I'm talking snow totals over the next 10-15 days, regardless of the individual storm threats. I saw some ensemble info in the TN sub-forum a few days ago, showing some big dogs for our area. Of course, that's good and bad...bad because the ensemble mean can be skewed by a couple of outliers. 6z GEFS from 3/7:

Interesting... SPC AC 091925 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorms are probable across an expansive warm sector stretching from the Gulf Coast northward into the upper Ohio Valley region. The amplification of an upper wave over the northern CONUS will support steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it migrates from the Great Lakes region into southeast Quebec by 12 UTC Thursday. An attendant cold front will push across the MS Valley into the upper OH Valley and Southeast states during the forecast period, and will act as the primary foci for thunderstorm development. ...East Texas into the Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorm clusters and/or convective bands will likely be ongoing, albeit weakening, across the eastern TX/OK at the start of the forecast period. A combination of daytime heating, ascent ahead of a southern-stream upper trough, and forcing along the approaching cold front should promote an uptick in convective intensity and coverage by late morning/early afternoon across LA and MS. Storm-motion vectors largely along the front will maintain a linear storm mode and support primarily a severe wind threat. The severe threat may be maximized during the late morning/early afternoon hours as buoyancy increases but before low to mid-level flow decreases as the synoptic low accelerates away to the northeast. ...OH Valley... Low-level moisture and a remnant EML will continue to spread north/northeast in tandem with the translation of the surface low. This should support adequate buoyancy within a narrow, but migratory, warm sector for surface-based convection. Strong flow in proximity to the surface low/upper jet will promote organized convection along the front, most likely organized clusters and lines capable of severe gusts and perhaps embedded circulations. Recent extended-range RRFS solutions hint at the development of pre-frontal supercells within a diffuse plume of low-level theta-e advection across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings from this region suggest that tornadic supercells are possible. Other guidance also depicts this plume of theta-e advection, which lends some credence to this scenario. However, the RRFS is typically overly aggressive with convective intensity, and recent MPAS solutions are less bullish on deep convection ahead of the front where mostly cloudy skies should limit diurnal insolation to some degree. This uncertainty precludes the introduction of higher risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for a more robust severe threat within this regime. ..Moore.. 03/09/2026

In reality it will probably be back and forth with cold and some warmth

Actually 12z was decent too in longer range but it started to cave on 3/16 then