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Yeah, I think the best advice for most people in SNE is to take a backseat until the new year, and if something pops before that, great. I wouldn’t even give that system early next week a second thought until probably Sunday. A lot can go wrong, it’s early, and it’s still a week away. Odds are we won’t see anything from it, that’s just the way it goes.

So, now I can give you the answer Yesterday’s 2 week GEFS (through 12/9/25) was starting to loop in 7 through the end of the 2 week run: was it going to stay in 7 or was it going to go into 8? Here’s the much anticipated answer: it ended up doing just a small, quick loop in 7 but then it went a little ways into 8 on 12/11, with that lasting 8 days (12/11-18), which alone would be enough for the longest Dec phase 8 since Dec of 1989 and longest, period, since Feb of 2019. However, it then looped back into 7 a little ways 12/19-26 with it stalled at the end. Now my question is whether or not it would have gone back into 8:

Wolf You gonna burn yourself out at this rate. I honestly don't know who you are fighting against half the time

was looking at 0z and 6z and yeah...like wowzers. If 1/4 of what is advertised materialized, we'd be gettin outta the winter gates w/ some zip.

PV forecast

Agreed! Will be interesting to see the trends on guidance through the weekend. I'll be keeping tabs on AI model outputs as well. Want to see some consistency on handling of the wave ejection at this lead and as we get closer to any event potential. Still a ways to go, but nice to see something worthwhile to kick off the season around these parts

Everyone who gets it enjoy! I'm half way to last years season total so I've got all winter to get 4 pathetic more inches lol. Seriously, this is a good start to Met Winter as long as it doesn't catch the lane right before the pins. I expect kitchen sink variety this time of year here. But this year is feeling like a doozie of a winter coming. This damn rubber band has to snap at some point Note: There, I jinxed myself

tyvm! I hope your idea verifies. Be nice to have everyone smile. .

How often is Kankakee in the lead on snow, let the man have his flowers.

It’s Not so much that Scott…I love to joke around and laugh as much as anybody, but I do like to not goof around sometimes too. I try to learn some too from you guys in the know…so whatever. Things have changed from a few days ago, they’ll change some more going forward the next few days.

Haha only mention cause I feel it would be unfair for me to comment negatively on the trends for MBY

Decent drink overnight... 0.73".

It's early and cold air is iffy down here, but the midwest storms today and Nov 30 will pay a role in laying down snow cover and reducing modification of cold air setting us up for the threat next week.

Usually December 1st.

Nice. I'll probably be sweating a little this far south in Geauga county.

Happy Thanksgiving!

The only fly in the ointment this morning is the MJO. It still gets to 8, but not until we have an obnoxious loop through 7 and it heads for the COD at the timeframe I was hoping it would steer into 1.

I think the 6Z got into the Thanksgiving cheer a little early. Wave after wave after wave.

I feel like you could've omitted the first half of that first sentence lol but i see you, letting everyone know who the leader is.

lol you get fired up easily. Nobody is trying to give you shit. Just relax.

I arrive Friday afternoon, moved it up a day. Saturday morning 6 am-the flakes better be flying and the green grass disappearing. IKK can keep the freeze line there, no further north please. EURO-AI is troubling into sunday morning.

Don’t hate this look at range