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Maybe a 2-3 day period of 90s. Not really seeing any extended heatwaves though in the extended.
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It has a nice mid-level mesocyclone. If there was a bit more sf instability that would probably try producing. I wouldn't be shocked if some wind damage reports came in but perhaps its still a bit elevated so wind isn't mixing down. But there's also a big increase in lightning...a sign this is strengthening
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14z HRRR continues to be fairly bullish. I'm relatively "in" so far.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, I love Chuck's formula, but I am skeptical of it this year with that signal. -
LongBeachSurfFreak started following TS Bertha
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sun is breaking through now in north central NJ Temp : 85 Dewpoint 72 - solid line of precip approaching for later today from western PA - expect a severe watch to be issued within the next couple of hours for most of the Metro
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This is Frederick’s summer. The current humidity is getting me hyped.
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Robust LLC for sure but a sheared system with a "naked swirl" on vis. Shear and dry air to the north makes me think Bertha has peaked. Has about 30 or so hours before land interaction so a little window for some additional intensification but I'm thinking not. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO2/loop60.html
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On channel 7 Lee Goldberg will often say that he disagrees with the futurecast. Or he'll do what he did yesterday which was show the HRRR futurecast because he didn't agree with the regular futurecast not showing the break during the afternoon like the HRRR did.
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Getting sunny here through the high clouds
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes, I'm pretty sure the August spike was 2023, and likely the September spike as well. I remember there being an anomolous heatwave in South America in August 2023, and another one the following month. -
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That would be like the El Ninos of yore.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Chris, I find it fascinating that the previous warmest was in August, another winter month! Do you know if that was also in El Niño? -
Mountain West Discussion
mayjawintastawm replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
That's why I hate RH, it's a measure of nothing important. Why do people use it instead of DP? I remember getting out my sling psychrometer when I was a 12 year old weather geek (and one time losing my grip as the thermometers went flying), and using tables to figure it out. -
Mountain West Discussion
mayjawintastawm replied to mayjawintastawm's topic in Central/Western States
Mine too. Will we see measurable precipitation the next few days before it gets hot again over the weekend? -
2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts.- 1,235 replies
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Wow, that was impressive. Nice drink.
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Forum having server issues again this morning.
