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tough^

Don’t like that warm tongue, but NWS seems to be discounting it given the surface temp for the hours leading up to it and throughout the event.

Yup...great point. I'll say too...looking around at various locations, I would like to start seeing some stronger omega values popping up on some of these soundings. It's easy to get carried away with ratios given everything but we aren't going to automatically snag very high ratios because the DGZ is deep and its cold. There are really a ton of details to go over and analyze on this

A bit low

This is exactly what we want to look for now. Absolute firehose from 6-18z. As for ratios, I think the dream of lots of high ratio snow is mostly gone with the way this storm has evolved. I think the really early stuff (6-10z or so?) could be higher ratio when the column is coldest. But snow will also be lighter then. But maybe we can do a 12-15:1 on average during that? But after 10z-ish, I think we fall back into normal range. If you’re in a subsidence band at some point, ratios will suck. If you get deathbanded, they’ll go back up for a time. But probably averaging a normal 9-11:1.

-19 here at the house. Just might be hitting the bottom now. Since this is an advection cold the normal low spots on my drive in didn’t bottom out in the -20s

I’m right off 287 in Morris County. Seems like it might be right near the sleet/snow battleground. Curious to see where I end up. Preparing for 8 or 20 at this point .

Who knows if the models are wrong with the warming. Lets just see how the storm progresses and take it from there. Saying no one will see double digits at this time is irresponsible.

The Accuweather one still had me getting 8-12" of snow yesterday evening- that hasn't been on the table for days.

I believe the NAM has mixing up to Poughkeepsie. I will let you know since I am North of 84.

I think 6-7 is good for my hood. See what i did there kids?

RAH mentions decreased QPF on overnight modeling for the NC piedmont in their recent AFD. Still going with 0.5-0.75” ZR

Because it’s only an app. It can’t hold all the information. It changes several times a day. It’s great for watching radar, but never ever use an app to make your plans regarding the weather.

I guess I cant even fathom a comparison, because I know that under no circumstances would I EVER live in TX...but what a slap in the face how prone to ice they are in deep winter cold shots. Its like, you finally get DEEP winter cold with surface temps that scream powder but you get stuck with freezing rain and sleet.

it really does have that feel.

This seems a little bullish for southern MD, unless it's also including sleet. I hope they're right anyway.

Thankfully they have a long time to catch up. I think some of Denver's biggest storms have been in April.

Because weather apps are based on nothing we in this group value: precedence, analogs, multiple data points and human input. It’s why I hate that any of these apps bother. All it does is mislead the public.

Not sure how much it matters or if it’ll even translate to the other 12z runs, but there is a major change at H5 by hour 30. The northern stream is not digging anywhere near as much as it was at 6z. There’s also a better press of mid level cold air.

Good lord. It will change a million times but it's giving me 2010 vibes.

I was just looking at it roll in as well and was thinking it looked a bit more south.

At this point I may get nothing out of this. Precip shield and totals keep shrinking more and more on nw side. Euro caved to gfs. Guess it was nice while it lasted. Will be shocked if I get 1-2in.

The ideal environment for freezing rain accretion is just below freezing temperatures at the surface and a mist or very light rain falling into a gentle steady breeze to aid droplet particulation. I’m not sure if that’s an actual word the point being the bigger the droplet the less likely it will stick. Too much breeze and the water wont stick and has drying function, as does too low of a temperature to the moisture content. The fly in the ointment is already fallen sleet/snow at lower temperatures as it can supercool rain falling in lower temps and immediately form concrete. But heavier rain can and will overcome that, especially over a long duration.