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I would look at ensembles at this point vs op runs. We want the setup to be there and a storm present vs specific track.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
zenmsav6810 replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Flush! -
Euro seems late again at least on WB.
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Sbcw0603 started following The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm
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best i can do is 6 more weeks of cad
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Snow showers with the sun out...
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There should be a 1000 emoji for this
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Surprised no Kuchera maps posted yet.
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Just finished shoveling. Kinda proud of my work tbh. What’s also cool is coming inside after starting at bright snow and everything is low lit.
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Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.
TauntonBlizzard2013 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Scott (and me to be fair) said enjoy yesterday, nothing in the pipeline. And next cycle, here we go -
Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.
RUNNAWAYICEBERG replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I still haven’t quite emptied the first bag… -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Jns2183 replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Correlation Is a snowy start a predictor of a snowy finish? General Correlation: Across all years since 1899, the correlation is nearly zero (0.08). In the broad historical sense, a snowy start to winter does not guarantee a snowy end. Qualifying Years Correlation: Interestingly, when looking only at the 28 seasons that started as snowy as this one, the correlation increases to 0.24. Interpretation: While the general rule is that early snow doesn't predict late snow, in "active" years like this one, there is a slight positive trend. History suggests that when the pattern is active enough to give us 21.7" by late January, it tends to stay slightly more active than a typical year through the spring. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk -
Its possible but if it keeps trending west we all score
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2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Buckethead replied to Buckethead's topic in Southeastern States
Down to 6. Snow continues to fly. 2.5" now. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
LVblizzard replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
At this point we want the GEFS to be a miss to the east. 9 times out of 10 the GFS and its ensembles are the last ones to catch on with a storm like this. -
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Snowing
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Southern Crippler - Get well soon Jimbo Storm Obs
sakau2007 replied to BooneWX's topic in Southeastern States
.28 ZR and .28 inches of ice accumulation are very different. if .28 inches of liquid precip fell while the temperature was at or below 32, that's .28" of ZR. -
The good news here is that a 400-mile north shift would still give us the 2.5" that Savannah gets on this run.
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Ready for the AI shellacking
