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  2. I would look at ensembles at this point vs op runs. We want the setup to be there and a storm present vs specific track.
  3. I fully expect to get screwed on today's stuff.....I'm sure it will be more CJ. Note moving forward with more storms in the pipeline...toss the globals on CF placement, far and wide. NAM nailed it. being pinned to the N shore and near 128. GFS and EURO had it up by me.
  4. Surprised no Kuchera maps posted yet.
  5. Just finished shoveling. Kinda proud of my work tbh. What’s also cool is coming inside after starting at bright snow and everything is low lit.
  6. Scott (and me to be fair) said enjoy yesterday, nothing in the pipeline. And next cycle, here we go
  7. Correlation Is a snowy start a predictor of a snowy finish? General Correlation: Across all years since 1899, the correlation is nearly zero (0.08). In the broad historical sense, a snowy start to winter does not guarantee a snowy end. Qualifying Years Correlation: Interestingly, when looking only at the 28 seasons that started as snowy as this one, the correlation increases to 0.24. Interpretation: While the general rule is that early snow doesn't predict late snow, in "active" years like this one, there is a slight positive trend. History suggests that when the pattern is active enough to give us 21.7" by late January, it tends to stay slightly more active than a typical year through the spring. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
  8. Its possible but if it keeps trending west we all score
  9. Down to 6. Snow continues to fly. 2.5" now. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk
  10. At this point we want the GEFS to be a miss to the east. 9 times out of 10 the GFS and its ensembles are the last ones to catch on with a storm like this.
  11. .28 ZR and .28 inches of ice accumulation are very different. if .28 inches of liquid precip fell while the temperature was at or below 32, that's .28" of ZR.
  12. The good news here is that a 400-mile north shift would still give us the 2.5" that Savannah gets on this run.
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