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I checked their hourly graphic on this. Even thought the point and click says it, it is listed as “slight chance” on the hourly. .

It's pretty clear that the NAM is slow with the leading edge of the precip. It definitely has a bias of being too slow to advance precipitation into very dry air. The 18Z cycle doesn't bring snow into DC until 6Z, and I doubt it will take that long. It's probably good reason to ignore its QPF for the front end thump and go with wetter models. That said, none of that means that it must be off with the timing of the transition to sleet. It might very well be too fast with that, but I wouldn't base that off of not getting snow to the ground quickly enough at the leading edge.

Thread is dead lmfao

2 in of qpf here on Nam and 3km

Jesus Nam went wild

NAM versus real conditions [from WxSammy]

I need to check my batteries…saying 44 here in Taylors

I know from sports betting this stuff is a lot harder than it seems but it would take a lot to go right for CPK to break 11.3 inches tomorrow I'd think. Let alone the fact they undermeasure.

12z....I like Thursday for a light snow event w/ the incoming front then. The GEM-para, which has been good, has it as does the Euro.

Just a little difference with the NAM, 3K NAM and HRRR.

Still not seeing a lot of development to our SW in Alabama/GA.

It seems Norman has been in a dry slot most of today, and the HRRR shows that continuing this evening into tonight. Hopefully that winds up not being the case.

Damn, spit out my drink

Light snow has started here in Rocky Mount Virginia temp 19 Dp -6. Snowboard is out and ready to measure.

850mb temps noticeably colder on 18z NAM. 0C never gets to coastal CT, RI, or even Cape Cod.

Lightly snowing at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.

Looks like you have a nice band coming in

Seeing the same near Karns/Cedar Bluff. Mostly sleet with some larger flakes mixed in when the rates improve. I've been holding steady at 28 degrees for a couple hours now.

I'm thinking Blacksburg said 5-6 pm ish? So yeah about 2 hours ahead? But it is LIGHT, I can almost count the flakes in the air falling.

Def is showing an IVT hanging back and when that stronger vort energy hits it, some nice precip blossoms. It shows some pretty nice snows right into late Monday night over eastern areas. Some spots get over 0.30” of liquid between 18z Monday and the end of the storm. That would prob be very high ratio fluff and take storms totals to higher end of the ranges. Im still ambiguous on how Monday plays out but an 18z NAM version would be very good.

We have smelts every Christman Eve, delicious.

I’ve been here since the days of EasternWX. I’m still fuckin confused! Or it could be the RAR double IPA kickin in. ETA—forgot to contribute something weather like. Ummmm. It’s cold out and feels like snow. Boom!

That wasn’t a concern of mine with this type of system, unlike 2016 when I recorded a whopping .4

Moderate snow now. This is nice for however long it lasts. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

What's going on with the Canadians? Did they drink too much again? On the eve of our biggest event in years and they are a no-show ha.