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sure let's post 276 hour gfs kuchera maps i'm dumping my bacon grease can down the drain after posting this

Porked again.

Euro starting to load in on weathermodels

It sure is nice seeing you act like us for a change instead of all the trolling with claims that you root against winter. It's obvious that you really love winter lol.

WSWs hoisted

Don't read MU's thoughts. At least if you want a snowstorm at home.

I’m surprised MRX has not given up on this yet. Not because of the winter storm watch, but because they are still thinking a significant amount of snow. They must still believe either. This is not going to go as far north, as some of the models are saying or the dynamics of the system could potentially keep it for snow longer. .

all the ingredients are in place. Ample moisture from the southern stream, exploding tree risk to our northwest

Euro is down bad starter or ignition module

Bro, I hope that was a sarcastic, joking post because I thought this was a forecast board not a personal wishcast board for you. I guarantee his plans won't be the only ones ruined as this thing comes together. If not, go put your big boy snow pants on and get over the fact that others may have a different take on the impact of the weather. Funny how the Pro's in these boards don't mention "bade vibes" in their opinions, what's that tell you?

lol so CMC/Ukie drive a low into Buffalo and some GEFS members are suppressed to Raleigh... I suppose that's not that unexpected 4 days out

Went from a 1050 over iowa to a weaker one over Vermont. Also dealing with a complete phase instead the Baja low coming across on its own

We used to joke in college that it was “processing” a monster solution as the reason for being late.

Does late transmission mean anything from the input side?

NWS Chat update: We are working on a Winter Storm Watch now, which should be sent out by 1 PM, including our whole forecast area.

Latest EURO

Ha, not the most responsible take on matters buuuut, we did a tongue-in-cheek study when I was an undergrad and found that it was true! A corr. coef. existed between delayed or failed transmission of model products preceding storms that actually took place. not kidding. Someone would come out of the PC lounge of the weather lab to announce the MRF was late ...cheers and applause erupted.

Fortunately, it's the UKMET, so it's probably way overdone.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Charleston WV 1228 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 WVZ523-526-220130- /O.NEW.KRLX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T1200Z/ /O.CON.KRLX.WW.Y.0005.260121T2100Z-260122T1500Z/ Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph- Including the cities of Harman and Snowshoe 1228 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory today and tonight, mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations around a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. For the Winter Storm Watch this weekend, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 15 inches possible. Locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Northwest Pocahontas and Southeast Randolph Counties. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Saturday morning through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening and Thursday morning commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

only 14 more model cycles suites to go. At this range the very close avg of all QPF has NYC spot on 1 inch which is quite a feat for such an aligned 96-120H forecast.

Notice how the bottom of the trough has moved west over the past couple of runs? That allows the primary to ride west of us. The High to the north eventually stops it but it brings warm air aloft to the east causing mixing. Prior to this the primary slid to our south.

WSW from MRX and FFC. I'd expect GSP to follow suit this afternoon.

Sometimes the model can be to quick to break down the ridge. I’m curious to see what the euro shows & more importantly what sort of tale the ensembles tell. .

Prudent, if for no other reason than the ZR possibilities.

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 10 inches will be possible, primarily north of Knoxville with the heaviest accumulations near the Kentucky border and far western Virginia. In addition to the snow, ice accumulations up to one half of an inch will be possible, primarily south of Knoxville. The greatest ice accumulations will likely be south of a line from Crossville to Tellico Plains, especially the southern Cumberland Plateau. * WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This is a complicated forecast and details regarding the location of heaviest snowfall and freezing rain totals remain uncertain. Significant changes could occur in the coming days so please continue to monitor future forecasts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. .