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I have enjoyed reading all the thoughts on this thread during the past hour. I see that J.B. has defaulted to 97-98. I pray that he is correct. 97-98 averaged +2.20 Nino, the ECMWF is closer to 3.00 for this coming winter. As most realize, we are in a serious to extreme, drought. To prevent hardship for many in our society, we need lots of rainfall or melted snow over an extended period of time. I pray for a repeat of 97 - 98 because it was the wettest winter of any of 9 strong Nino's back to 1950. I received 22.62" of rain and melted snow compared to a normal 8.40" of precip. in DJF. Regarding snowfall in 97-98, 33 inches was 9 inches above normal for Augusta County. Regarding NAO or AO for Augusta snowfall ?? The NAO doesn't seem to be really important, but the AO should be firmly negative according to historical observations. During 97-98 the AO averaged -2.00 and the NAO averaged about -.30".

Not here. The rain keeps washing it off.

Some heat and dews come late month and early July and then is cancelled after UFN. Story of the Nino summer. Ineedsnow cheering on a cool summer only for winter to average 10 degrees cooler than we are now.

Steady heavy rain up north and hit or miss storms around here. That will be frustrating as usual.

How we pray. Still looks tenuous to me

Meanwhile AC units are gathering dust.

They should have listened to you.

Good luck!

Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (2012) NYC: 98 (1923) LGA: 98 (2012) JFK: 94 (2012) Lows: EWR: 52 (1956) NYC: 49 (1914) LGA: 55 (1959) JFK: 55 (2005) Historical: 1682 - A major tornado ripped through southwestern Connecticut, passing through Stratford, Milford, and New Haven, and then into Long Island Sound. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1921 - Circle, MT, received 11.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state. The town of Circle received a total of 16.79 inches of rain that month to establish a rainfall record for any town in Montana for any month of the year. (The Weather Channel) 1928 - A farmer near Greensburg, KS, looked up into the heart of a tornado. He described its walls as rotating clouds lit with constant flashes of lightning and a strong gassy odor with a screaming, hissing sound . (The Weather Channel) 1956: A microburst caused a brief wind gust to 58 mph at Stapleton Airport. (Ref. Denver, CO Weather History) 1964 - A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois. A second squall line moved through during the early morning hours of the 21st, and a third one moved through shortly after dawn. The series of hailstorms caused nine million dollars damage. Hailstones as large as grapefruit caused heavy damage to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as five inches of rain in an eight hour period. (David Ludlum) 1975: Atlantic Beach, NC -- A man was killed on the beach by lightning. Lakeland, Fla.--A 16-year-old boy was killed instantly and his 16-year-old companion was injured when lightning struck a power line adjacent to a tree house in which the boys were located. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) (David Ludlum) 1987 - Thunderstorms prevailed east of the Rockies, producing severe weather in the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Colorado, and produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Goodland, KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Flint, MI, and 104 degrees at Chicago, IL, equalled records for the month of June. Thunderstorms in North Dakota produced baseball size hail near Kief, and wind gusts to 100 mph near McGregor. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - An early morning thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 61 mph at Pierre, SD, and the hot thunderstorm winds raised the temperature from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 degrees by 1 AM, and 104 degrees by 2 AM. Butte, MT, and Yellowstone Park, WY, reported snow that afternoon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989:A meteorological "hot flash" hit Pierre. Descending air from collapsing thunderstorms caused the temperature in Pierre to warm from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 at one a.m. and to 104 at 2 a.m. Pierre's record high for the date of 105 degrees in 1974. 2000: Barrow, Alaska: The town of Barrow on Alaska's North Slope experiences its first recorded thunderstorm which dropped 0.16 inches of rain in just a couple minutes. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2001: Large hail driven by strong thunderstorm winds raked Denver International and front-range airports. Wind gusting to 54 mph along with hail as large as 2 inches in diameter punched at least 14 thousand holes and cracks in the flat roofs of several buildings at Denver International Airport. Also, 93 planes and hundreds of cars were damaged. About 100 flights had to be canceled stranding 1500 travelers. The Airport was completely shut down for about 20 minutes. The storm also damaged ground avoidance radar used to track planes on the ground to prevent collisions. Damage was estimated at 10 million dollars not counting the cost to the 93 airliners. The storm moved south and struck Watkins Colorado with hail as large as 2 1/2 inches in diameter and winds gusting to 60 mph.

It is desperately needed

71 / 50 gorgeous day out there. Weekend looks amazing. Low - mid 80s. Next shot at widespread rains/storms on Monday >0.75 - 2.00 inches - looking focussed northern areas. Once passed monday trough into the northeast through the 27th but overall near normal. Moderation warming by the close with next heat as ridge and heat expands beyond into the start of next month.

It’s there starting late month right thru the 4th. Huge ridging east coast

If I’m taking the family on vacation in the summer I need sun and fun, not rain and domestics.

Beautiful start to the day. 57*. We COC

Looks like the drought north of us is about over while it gets worse and worse around here. All that will miss to the north. Book it.

Raked the yard two weeks ago after the storm blew through and I think there's more debris down now from the wind Thursday than there was after that storm.

The EURO is getting more aggressive with the +IOD, now showing a strong positive event come September

WB 9Z NBM for Monday.

Hrrrrr brings a chance for storms this evening. It definitely won't happen. If it does it's just going to hit Frederick lol

Call the ACO - maybe that official will trap out the dam builders.

Lots of hoodies this past work week. CON +0.8 and ORH +0.4 M-F. BOS +3.4

KEY MESSAGE 2: Widespread rain on Monday A wet start to the work week with widespread rain expected on Monday. The heaviest rainfall is most likely between 2AM and 8PM with totals in the 0.75-1.50" range. Current probs off the latest ensembles and National Blend indicate 50-80% probs for >1" across most of CPA. Flooding risk is marginal to low with greatest risk likely confined to urban areas where locally heavy or repeat downpours could cause some isolated runoff issues. Rain tapers off/ends Monday night with dry weather returning on Tuesday.

Day 3 SPC OTLK for Monday... ...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic... A moist airmass will move into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic on Monday ahead of an eastward moving cold front. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak which will limit overall instability, but moderate shear and sufficient instability, combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support some damaging wind threat Monday afternoon/evening. In addition, a smaller area of greater low-level shear may exist closer to the surface low across northern Virginia and vicinity, which could have a localized region of greater tornado threat.

So you told no one Got it lol