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Yet our 70+ days in January are mostly in niñas.

Sod is immediate satisfaction, but if the rest of the yard needs work, and you’re already committed to aerating and seeding the existing lawn, I’d go the seed route. Totally bare areas that have been covered tend to respond well to seeding.

Congrats to my great, great, great, great, great grandkids on perpetual El Nino.

I think there’s some confusion from a few. No one was saying no rain because of wagons south. This has always looked like scattered showers to the Pike area. But the heavy rains have always been wagons south . Like S coast to NYC south

12k nam who cares

Looks like August is currently tracking near the higher end of the range close to the ECMWF SEAS5 forecast from the 1st. https://celsius.earth/predict Aug 2026 MEDIAN 1.50 90% RANGE 1.34-1.66 SEAS5 DIRECT 1.66

DCA Christmas day temps during past strong Nino events 1972.. 48hi 42lo 1982.. 70hi 48lo 1997.. 49hi 40lo 2015.. 69hi 57lo 2023.. 61hi 40lo Seems like there's unfortunately much greater odds of our region flirting with 60F+ temps than getting close to freezing (DCA climo for the day is 47hi 33lo)

Decent call. A little slow in bringing the front into MN, but otherwise about right.

August 20 1904: Both downtown Minneapolis and St. Paul are hit by tornadoes, producing the highest official wind ever recorded in Minnesota over one minute (110 mph in St. Paul). For Thursday, August 20, 2026 1886 - The 1886 Indianola Hurricane destroyed the town of Indianola, Texas and as such had a significant impact on the history and economic development of Texas. The storm ended the rivalry between Galveston and Indianola as the chief port of Texas. With the abandonment of Indianola and the unwillingness of the former residents to rebuild close to shore, Galveston became the essential Texan port until the 1900 Galveston Hurricane led to the rise of Houston as a major port. It was the fifth hurricane of the 1886 Atlantic hurricane season and one of the most intense hurricanes ever to hit the United States. 1910 - The big blow up of forest fires finally came to an end in Idaho. A record dry August fueled 1736 fires which burned three million acres destroying six billion board feet of timber. The fires claimed the lives of 85 persons, 78 of which were fire fighters, and consumed the entire town of Wallace. The smoke spread a third of the way around the world producing some dark days in the U.S. and Canada. The forest fires prompted federal fire protection laws. (David Ludlum) (Note: WOW!) 1928 - A tornado estimated at F4 intensity initially touched down in Winnebago County, Iowa, moved to Freeborn County, Minnesota, and hit the south side of Austin, MN. Five of the six deaths were in Austin with 60 injuries. 1987 - Half a dozen cities in the Central Plains Region reported record high temperatures for the date, including Pueblo CO with a reading of 102 degrees, and Goodland KS with a high of 104 degrees. Hill City KS reached 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Sheridan, WY, reported a record hot temperature reading of 100 degrees. Evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail near Fortuna ND, and wind gusts to 70 mph near Webster SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Early morning thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southeast Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, with up to six inches reported around Tulsa OK. Some roads in the Tulsa area were closed by water 10 to 12 feet deep. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Thunderstorms produced winds gusts to 75 mph in Major County OK, and hail two inches in diameter at Jennings KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 20 Thu National Chocolate Pecan Pie Day 20 Thu Feast day of St Bernard 20 Thu World Mosquito Day 20 Thu National Radio Day 20 Thu National Bacon Lovers Day

We are under a flood watch thru 2am for between 1 to 2 inches of rain and maybe more for some spots that get under a thunderstorm. We will get cooler tomorrow and that will last through the next week with temperatures mainly in the upper 70's to near 80 degrees for high temperatures. We should see nighttime lows back into the 50's by early next week.

We are under a flood watch thru 2am for between 1 to 2 inches of rain and maybe more for some spots that get under a thunderstorm. We will get cooler tomorrow and that will last through the next week with temperatures mainly in the upper 70's to near 80 degrees for high temperatures. We should see nighttime lows back into the 50's by early next week.

Amen, brother, amen!

This is one of the best read ups I’ve read in a bit! We’ll have to see how the situation evolves with our cape ml lapse rates improving.

Headed to Lititz tonight for a concert hope any storms are before say 6 pm. But that seems doubtful ha

A few hundredths of -RN so far this morning. More possible later. Nice to see something around here.

Bro I just don't want to be 65 and party sunny on Christmas Day.

@CoastalWx might float into the Atlantic

This is your bump north

12z NAM

ice storm climo in n america def has some weird favored corridors, i could see one shifting and being potentially problematic that said, i the lake definitely offers a good deal of protection given the typical low level winds in ice set ups usually have an easterly component, with the exception being extreme deep cold antecedent airmasses but i'm selling those this winter for sure

Maybe the Walker circulation is finally beginning to weaken. The strengthening in recent decades went against model forecasts. Probably due to an incomplete understanding of how it works. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105332 The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) weakens under global warming in climate change projections, supported by a global hydrological constraint. However, the PWC has strengthened over the past decades despite ongoing global warming, and the cause has been a puzzle. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50156-9 Our finding of a reversal in ENSO evolution from an initial increase to a subdued or collapsed amplitude toward 2300 highlights a strong nonlinear response of ENSO to persistent greenhouse warming. Under transient greenhouse warming, the fast warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, though initially contributing to an increase in ENSO variability, sows the seeds of a subsequent ENSO decrease by reducing the potential intensity and shrinking the climatological non-convective area of the equatorial Pacific. Establishing atmospheric convection in the reduced non-convective area induces small convective and wind anomalies that feed into the Bjerknes feedback. The associated curtailing effect eventually leads to the ENSO reduction. Although ENSO from a reduction to an eventual collapse is seen in some models, the likelihood in other models requires experiments integrated beyond the 23rd century, but such an evolution represents no good news, because it means that the oscillatory nature of ENSO impacts would be replaced by a quasi-permanent condition that is similar to an El Niño in many respects, therefore with a cumulative impact on affected regions.

Strange to have a Friday game to kick off the season, but I’ll take it. Spurs fan here…can’t be any worse than last year!