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Anyone got any maps for next weekend? I’m debating on a western MD trip and wondering if return travel Sunday would be safe.

Interesting expanding area of light snow happening. It's been getting progressively heavier for the last 20 minutes and is starting to coat things now. Pretty cool.

We need the same adjustment. If the longwave features adjust west the same way they did last week that energy diving into the Midwest that becomes the storm will trend west also. Right now it’s coming in too far east for what we need. Shift that west and watch. Do I know it will no. A trend can reverse anytime. But this isn’t significantly more complicated. There is going to be a major wave amplification off the east coast. The pattern argues for it. It’s been identified as a period to watch for a long time. The question is where exactly. We don’t need some crazy adjustment in the phasing being shown. We juts need to shift the whole thing west. Some are applying the typical miller b thing here but the reason miller bs always fail for us is rarely does the NS dig south enough. That isn’t the issue on guidance right now.

Headed back down after a high of 30 in Charlottesville currently 27/1 under full sun

20 last measurment, still snowing.⁹

Another 1.5" so far today. 18.5" storm total.

Big one for me in CT was Nemo in 2013. 40” .

Baltimore City schools closed tomorrow. Man you know it's bad when the city closes for more than a day

Lately, it's been me, or Wiggum starting the storm threads. My preference is to confirm the major models are all on board and the NAM is in range before a storm thread is started by me. Can't truly speak for Ralph but I know he is waaaaay better than I am at reading the models and knowing when a threat is legit. Look. we're all tired right now, but Winter is not over! Got more tracking to do!

17.0 Moosup

WB 18Z NBM

Really neat loop and a word of caution https://x.com/TomNiziol/status/2015858077736546666?s=20

Feels super warm out at 31 today. Lots of ice still on trees in fun sun. This picture is from a shady part at the bottom of my pasture . .

Looks like bobcat

Another day, another day with winds 15 mph above forecast. Blowing 40.

If AI asked the Euro Weeklies(today) how long until spring arrives. It's answer would have been, "Long time."

capitol weather gang has an excellent write up on the challenges of forecasting this unique storm in the washington post, not sure how to link, but it is making the rounds online with no firewall. in short, this was a historic sleet storm, one for the ages.

11 hours of freezing mist with sessions of light snow all glued to the ~18-20" on the ground has made this one of the more annoying big storms in a long time. I have the important stuff cleared, now have to detail it over the next few days so there's room for more. The hardest part ahead is digging through the street pile (5' high and 10' thick) and up the front yard to get to the oil fill by Friday for a delivery.

Euro, ICON, and Canadian all with monster storms here and the GFS with a big one, too. This is looking good.

Looking back at the trend of the 12z GFS, I expect it to look pretty good at 18z with one more tick back to the west and closing off sooner. We will soon see!

Better chance of OTS than cutting

same here. 3” so far today, pounding fatties right now

Best vehicles I had for snow were Toyota Tacomas with Blizzack tires, never got stuck.

If we do care about the NAM, it's worse up top to our NE than 12z. Done looking at it though, so no further discussion lol.