Kbosch Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just remember...St Louis 12 inches out of .61 qpf Awesome. Good for them. And probably us. 4"-8" for CT. 7"-11" for N RI, ORH east to KGAY and KBOS Thank you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Guinness please One of my bosses has come to rely on me reading this at work and really needed to know what to expect for tomorrow. I told her three old men and a bald dude whispered 6-12". She mobilized a force to help set up our winter carnival tonight instead of Friday night. WCVB Ch 5 in boston has 10" headlines on their website - The End Is Near! Repent!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 bouchard 9am-12pm. 1-2 hr snowfall rates......may get to see sun set. 7-10... springfield to bos (basically pike) and N-S 15-20 miles or so. "esp waltham to andover to topsfield".... best bet for 10 inches per bouchard. "stickier snow from Bos S" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The people are angry, working at stop and shop, so many people complaining about how it was 1-3 this morning and now almost a foot. One women said she had lost any trust in the meteorological field.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just remember...St Louis 12 inches out of .61 qpf Also remember nice fluffy snow is difficult to catch in the bucket, so that QPF is probably quite a bit higher - perhaps 25-40% higher. Won't really know unless they hand edit the liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 4"-8" for CT. 7"-11" for N RI, ORH east to KGAY and KBOS couldnt agree more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What's happening at 4:30? I think one of the big factors weighing on OKX is the speed of the system. Seems like they're banking on it being an 8 hour storm, and unless it's snowing moderate to heavily at an inch per hour the entire time, it'll be tough breaking 6 inches in a wide enough area to warrant the warning. Remember, even if some areas get 6 or 7 or 8 inches, as long as most of the forecast zone stays under warning criteria it's still a valid forecast. I was thinking along those lines as well. What's the Warning criteria for the BOX area? Aren't the NH zones have an inch higher criteria, too? BOX's forecast is right on the edge of a winter storm warning and an advisory as the map shows pretty widespread 6-7 inch amounts. I'm not sure I agree with a warning unless everyone knows something I don't, but in a snowy winter, people are going to be fine dealing with 5, 6, 7". Anyway, the NWS forecast has no impact on what actually happens, so not sure why people get all in a tizzy about the whole watch/warning thing. I sometimes think some folks enjoy getting a "big snow" forecast from the NWS, almost more than the actual storm. EDIT: I'm only looking at QPF values of .4-.75", but it seems like some on here are expecting great ratios? I was just basing the above on a basic 12:1 snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BOX just updated at 418: WHILE WE KNOW THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE MORNING RUSH HOUR WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...OUR CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER ON EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND CONSENSUS FAVORS A TRACK OVER THE CAPE COD CANAL OR JUST A BIT EAST OF THAT LOCATION. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM...BUT ALSO ONE THAT IS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND JUST DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION. WHILE WE ARE CONFIDENT IN WARM ADVECTION YIELDING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR...ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH INFLOW WILL SEE FROM THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CENTER/S. THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE PHASING A BIT...SO THE MID LEVEL CENTERS DEVELOP QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWED. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CONNECTICUT BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM. IT SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 3 AM. ONE THE SNOW ARRIVES IT WILL COME DOWN MODERATE TO HEAVY AND BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW IDEAL SNOWGROWTH FOR SEVERAL HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. THERE ALSO IS A REALLY GOOD EPV SIGNATURE WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW. THESE SIGNATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOW FALL RATES. BASED ON ALL THE INFORMATION ABOVE AND MODEL TRENDS...WILL BE UPGRADING TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE EXPECT A SWATH OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS REGION OVER A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE BIG CONCERN AGAIN IS NOT JUST THE AMOUNTS BUT WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS OCCURRING DURING MORNING RUSH HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 lol.. I know really just asking some questions..anyone work for upton or something? anyway its just strange that some where saying that now that it looks closer and better for us that we could have 4-8 with lollies of 10 and then ...nothhing same amount as yesterday..any answers would be nice to the reason why would be greatly appreciated. I really just think this whole even is borderline warning criteria. Model consensus seems to be 0.4" QPF for most of OKX's area in CT. Even at 15:1 that's only 6". I don't see higher ratios in the coastal zones. Combined with a fast moving systems as already mentioned...confidence is probably low that 6" would be exceeded over a large enough area to warrant the warning. I'm leaning towards 3-6" west of the valley, 5-8" east with a few 10" lollies possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The people are angry, working at stop and shop, so many people complaining about how it was 1-3 this morning and now almost a foot. One women said she had lost any trust in the meteorological field.....lol I would be one of those folks with a sh** eating grin telling everyone, "Hey, now we're getting 10"! Whohooooo! Were's the beer at!" I have coworkers who don't understand me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Northern radar isn't the most impressive sight, but the radar out of Arkansas, Tennessee, and Mississippi is still cooking. Possibly an indication of a more potent southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 4"-8" for CT. 7"-11" for N RI, ORH east to KGAY and KBOS any forecast for Mount Snow? I don't understand enough about mountain interaction with weather yet to feel confident on a guess for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 3-5 inches for central CT seems oddly conservative from OKX. Even the Euro and GFS give more than .4 QPF and have been trending stronger with each run. Given 12:1 ratios, seems like 5 inches is very likely and four inches is probably the floor (unless all models are all off base). Several factors favor increased snowfall: better ratios, the higher QPF shown on the meso models, overperformance upstream, and the strengthening trend. To me, 4-8 makes more sense. That said, OKX has been very good, so I'm sure they have their reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I really just think this whole even is borderline warning criteria. Model consensus seems to be 0.4" QPF for most of OKX's area in CT. Even at 15:1 that's only 6". I don't see higher ratios in the coastal zones. Combined with a fast moving systems as already mentioned...confidence is probably low that 6" would be exceeded over a large enough area to warrant the warning. I'm leaning towards 3-6" west of the valley, 5-8" east with a few 10" lollies possible. i mean is it a stretch to think that with the storm shifting NW that ratio's are not as good in CT.. Also it seems box was on the edge weather they wanted a warning or a advisory....(calling 4-8) but since the heaviest is during morning commute i think they made the right decision. esp since essex county and 128 belt (n) of boston looks like they could see up to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nice low of -14F as per BOX IMBY Sunday night. This snow ain't going no where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 RGEM at 18z, EMA jackpots, then points NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Can't quite remember the setup because I was in 7th grade...but does this have any similarities to the February (11th??) 2003 storm. I remember that was a fluff bomb...expecting 3-6" the morning of and many spots got 10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The EC ens 6hrly QPF frames are almost exactly like the Op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i mean is it a stretch to think that with the storm shifting NW that ratio's are not as good in CT.. Also it seems box was on the edge weather they wanted a warning or a advisory....(calling 4-8) but since the heaviest is during morning commute i think they made the right decision. esp since essex county and 128 belt (n) of boston looks like they could see up to 10. I only mention lower ratios in OKX's zones because its kind of the norm...especially is weaker systems. LI Sound temps influencing the BL which keeps the best ratios a bit further inland. Usually that impact is only overcome in the strongest storms...i.e. last week's HECS. For light and moderate events...I think 15:1 ratios is about the best one should expect/forecast within 10-15 miles of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 any forecast for Mount Snow? I don't understand enough about mountain interaction with weather yet to feel confident on a guess for that I ski a lot at Mount Snow, and they always seem to do better than modeled in these SNE storms. I'm guessing they'll do as well as CT despite being further removed from the storm. Snow was great last Friday, but still was hitting roots and rocks in the glades. They got some denser snow (and then some ZR, unfortunately) on Tuesday, so hopefully they've got some more cover. Snowmaking trails had full cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS has some zip in the southern system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 snow appears to be breaking out on a line NW-SE from dubois, pa to harrisburg, pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ill take this and run with it! Tonight: Snow, mainly after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday: Snow, mainly before noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. North wind between 8 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 RGEM FTW Gonna go with 5-10" final call imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Can we get some final calls on here from the the heavy hitters..Ryan, Will, Scoot, Phil etc.. tol: 6.5 Orh: 7 Gay: 8.5 Scoot: 5.5? Tough call could hang on longer and be higher Me: 2 Bob: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I really just think this whole even is borderline warning criteria. Model consensus seems to be 0.4" QPF for most of OKX's area in CT. Even at 15:1 that's only 6". I don't see higher ratios in the coastal zones. Combined with a fast moving systems as already mentioned...confidence is probably low that 6" would be exceeded over a large enough area to warrant the warning. I'm leaning towards 3-6" west of the valley, 5-8" east with a few 10" lollies possible. Yeah I'm not bothered by OKX sticking with advisory. I think the heaviest in CT will be in NE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 tol: 6.5 Orh: 7 Gay: 8.5 Scoot: 5.5? Tough call could hang on longer and be higher Me: 2 Bob: 5 I agree, except for a little higher for Scoot.....maybe about 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 tol: 6.5 Orh: 7 Gay: 8.5 Scoot: 5.5? Tough call could hang on longer and be higher Me: 2 Bob: 5 Thanks dude. Mine is 6-12 for all of SNE .excluidng and with a heavy heart..SE Mass where I'll go 3-5 Lolli's of 14-16 in the jackpot area that I outlined earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 tol: 6.5 Orh: 7 Gay: 8.5 Scoot: 5.5? Tough call could hang on longer and be higher Me: 2 Bob: 5 BTW..nice to have you back posting again. You were missed by quite a few folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Thanks dude. Mine is 6-12 for all of SNE .excluidng and with a heavy heart..SE Mass where I'll go 3-5 Lolli's of 14-16 in the jackpot area that I outlined earlier down east maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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