DavisStraight Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ill take this and run with it!Tonight: Snow, mainly after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday: Snow, mainly before noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. North wind between 8 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible Looks windy after the storm passes, should get some blowing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 down east maine? NW RI to just east of ORH and up to west or near GAY..so I guess you're in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah I'm not bothered by OKX sticking with advisory. I think the heaviest in CT will be in NE CT Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NW RI to just east of ORH and up to west or near GAY..so I guess you're in that area Why west of KGAY?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I wish I could see the RGEM every 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS a touch colder this run but still runs CTs warmer than the NAM. Nice little trend SE with the cooler temps, may not be enough for me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Thanks dude. Mine is 6-12 for all of SNE .excluidng and with a heavy heart..SE Mass where I'll go 3-5 Lolli's of 14-16 in the jackpot area that I outlined earlier Well as I told you before...hope that works out for you. Personally I'm nervous my numbers might be too high...but ratios might be good enough. BTW..nice to have you back posting again. You were missed by quite a few folks. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS a touch colder this run but still runs CTs warmer than the NAM. Nice little trend SE with the cooler temps, may not be enough for me though. has snow to PVD ORH EEN by 1 am. schools its a snow day . deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I wish I could see the RGEM every 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 3-5 inches for central CT seems oddly conservative from OKX. Even the Euro and GFS give more than .4 QPF and have been trending stronger with each run. Given 12:1 ratios, seems like 5 inches is very likely and four inches is probably the floor (unless all models are all off base). Several factors favor increased snowfall: better ratios, the higher QPF shown on the meso models, overperformance upstream, and the strengthening trend. To me, 4-8 makes more sense. That said, OKX has been very good, so I'm sure they have their reasons. I think for OKX's area 3-5 is reasonable. Personally I'd say 4-6" is more likely in S CT but we're really splitting hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'd also be on the lookout tomorrow afternoon for a windex type event in some towns as the arctic front moves thru. GFS and NAM both hint at it . Surprised Ginx hasn't been on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I ski a lot at Mount Snow, and they always seem to do better than modeled in these SNE storms. I'm guessing they'll do as well as CT despite being further removed from the storm. Snow was great last Friday, but still was hitting roots and rocks in the glades. They got some denser snow (and then some ZR, unfortunately) on Tuesday, so hopefully they've got some more cover. Snowmaking trails had full cover. I've been there twice in last week and conditions have been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well as I told you before...hope that works out for you. Personally I'm nervous my numbers might be too high...but ratios might be good enough. thanks. Thanks for fixing the timestamp on your site, makes it a lot easier to figure out what/when you're posting. --- GFS looks good, Jerry/Bob/Ray should do very well/Scooter too. I'm just hoping we see no increase in speed tonight in the southern s/w which could shove everything a little faster. This shift a little faster is bothersome at 18z in all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I wish I could see the RGEM every 3 hours. You can when meteocentre updates.http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=18&map=na&mod=gemreg&lang=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why west of KGAY?? Mostly because I didn't want to include him in the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You can when meteocentre updates. http://meteocentre.c...=gemreg〈=en I forgot about meteocentre. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Mostly because I didn't want to include him in the jackpot LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Messyenger..what's your final call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like the 5-8'' call should hold up fine. Around .5'' of QPF with fluff factor, should have no problem verifying. Should be a nice CCB for a few hours tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ryan's boss has 5-10 statewide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think for OKX's area 3-5 is reasonable. Personally I'd say 4-6" is more likely in S CT but we're really splitting hairs. Yeah. I'm rethinking that earlier post based on the 18z models. Everything was trending stronger, which made me lean toward the higher end of things. Now that most 18z models have pulled back a tick, thinking widespread 8" in most of CT is unlikely, but with this winter, who knows. Have you been to Mount Snow since the ZR on Tuesday? The snow report the yesterday morning sounded grim, urging folks to stay off ungroomed trails. Groomed trails are not for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Home now....made it back in ahead of time in time for dinner. Got a good look at snow cover from above today up the coast. Basically it abruptly goes from bare ground to snow cover once you cross Delaware Bay into NJ. Essentially 40N is the demarcation line. 6-10+ coming. More next week....classic intense cold...one of the epic winters of our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 bouchard's jackpot bedford ...danvers peadbody topsfield swath ....best shot of "10" congrats burlington....wilmington also said have to watch for a mix up to S. shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think for OKX's area 3-5 is reasonable. Personally I'd say 4-6" is more likely in S CT but we're really splitting hairs. What's your thinking statewide? (Well for the northern part of the state since you just gave what you think for S. CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Home now....made it back in ahead of time in time for dinner. Got a good look at snow cover from above today up the coast. Basically it abruptly goes from bare ground to snow cover once you cross Delaware Bay into NJ. Essentially 40N is the demarcation line. 6-10+ coming. More next week....classic intense cold...one of the epic winters of our lives. Absolutely perfect season in response to last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 s bouchard's jackpot bedford ...danvers peadbody topsfield swath ....best shot of "10" congrats burlington....wilmington also said have to watch for a mix up to S. shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I wish it would start at 5am instead of 1am, but anyway I like my call of 6-10". Its not very often Bruchard gives me 7-10" while Harvey is less with 3-7". Pretty big difference, but I think the box map is a decent call. 7-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I wish it would start at 5am instead of 1am, but anyway I like my call of 6-10". Its not very often Bruchard gives me 7-10" while Harvey is less with 3-7". Pretty big difference, but I think the box map is a decent call. 7-8". No CCB action until after daybreak. I'm not going to bother getting up early since the heavy heavy snow holds off until after 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Messyenger..what's your final call? I'm thinking about it right now. didn't mean to post that yet....will do it soon. -- GFS/NAM punch a nice burst of WAA snows right over SE MA/RI around 4-7am quickly followed by a change/with a change on the GFS, to a lesser extent on the NAM. That burst rockets off the coast into the GOM by 10am Friday. The GFS would imply the change occurs pretty much as the precip really gets going which could run ugly for snow totals in SEMA. Face value the GFS isn't much snow at all in SE MA. The coastal front would push west just prior to the heavier precip arriving. Kind of ugly but it did trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah. I'm rethinking that earlier post based on the 18z models. Everything was trending stronger, which made me lean toward the higher end of things. Now that most 18z models have pulled back a tick, thinking widespread 8" in most of CT is unlikely, but with this winter, who knows. Have you been to Mount Snow since the ZR on Tuesday? The snow report the yesterday morning sounded grim, urging folks to stay off ungroomed trails. Groomed trails are not for me. We'll know tonight if the 18z was a signal or just a blip. It is interesting that all models trimmed to the west while piling on up in downeast...slightly faster movement/slower development. One more equal movement tonight and there will be significant forecast shuffling IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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