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Pattern beyond Jan 21st


Ginx snewx

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ALY leaves open the door for shift east as well as coming so far west as to mix/change to rain for their southern zones.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE THE REGION

COULD RECEIVE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY

BUT A SLIGHT CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND/OR TRACK COULD RESULT IN

THE REGION BEING NORTH AND WEST OF THE HEAVY SNOW AREA...OR IN

ENOUGH WARM AIR BEING PULLED IN TO RESULT IN A MIX OR CHANGE TO

RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STAY TUNED.

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3-4 foot snow pack after this storm?:snowman:

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A POTENTIAL

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM ALREADY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MANY OF THE

DETAILS WILL AGAIN INVOLVE THE TIMING OF PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN

AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD EVIDENCE THAT A FAIRLY

POWERFUL STORM MAY EVOLVE FROM JUST THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH COPIOUS

GULF AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE HAS

GOTTEN SOMEWHAT COLDER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS AND IS COLDER THAN THE

OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. INCLINED TO THINK THE COLDER PROFILE MAY MAKE

SENSE GIVEN THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF ARCTIC AIR RESIDENT OVER NEW

ENGLAND. NONETHELESS...WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK WILL BE A

DETERMINING FACTOR. FOR NOW...GOING WITH PTYEP OF SNOW ESSENTIAL

ALONG AND NW OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR AND RAIN OR SNOW TO THE SE.

HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHANCE RANGE DUE TO HOW FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT

INCREASED A LITTLE AND ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE THE PROBABLE SLOWER

TIMING FROM PRIOR RUNS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY HIGH

IMPACT EVENT WITH HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS. ASTRO TIDES HAVE COME

DOWN SINCE PAST THE FULL MOON BUT STILL MIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME

COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...IF EITHER THE

00Z ECMWF OR 00Z GFS SOLUTION COMES CLOSE TO VERIFYING.-- End Changed Discussion

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pretty epic stretch we have had recently. in the last 9 days, I have got 30" of snow, not counting what is falling today. impresssive.

looking ahead, if we get any kind of snow on Weds, it could be the most impressive 2 week stretch since-well i don't know since when. :snowman:

so much for the warm January many people were projecting! :scooter:

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wouldnt it be a real pisser if we had all this arctic air this weekend get out of town in time for a storm to come roaring up the coast and be a wintry mix or a cold heavy rain???

it would really suck for sure, they all sound pretty confident of a big event along the eastern sea board though that is for sure esp being almost a week out. Hopefully it will be a big multi region snow block buster with heavy snows from the mid atlantic to all of southern and central new england.

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While that solution would be incredible, I find it hard to fathom another 2 feet of snow in my yard right now. I don't think I'd be able to see out of the windows after that one! Then again, I am going skiing next weekend at Cranmore, so that's a major plus! :snowman::snowman:

Average snowpack here is 20". A 2 foot snow storm would cause extreme problems. Streets are already narrow in a lot of places. Of course, I don't care. Bring it.

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Average snowpack here is 20". A 2 foot snow storm would cause extreme problems. Streets are already narrow in a lot of places. Of course, I don't care. Bring it.

Very true indeed. About another foot of snow and my street probably becomes a one way drive for the rest of the winter. The real trick is keeping ahead of the back yard patio so I can keep grilling. :thumbsup:

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Even the radio stations this morning WAAF are saying major major snowstorm for tuesday.

Hype machine in full force.

My last facebook post, this should send people over the edge.

As we sit here this morning basking in some beautiful snow, Tuesday looks like a BOMB. One model has rain for Eastern Mass and another model has biblical snow. With the trend of the storms this year, I'd be grabbing milk and bread. Maybe some of you snow haters will finally pull the trigger and leave.

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12z GFS for January 21st says BOMBS AWAY!

definitely a fun run. it took an entirely different route to get to that output. 00z/06z and the ec really liked diving the shortwave down into the lower miss. river valley (or even further) and merging with some pre-existing southern stream energy and then rotating up the eastern seaboard. that kind of solution, in my eyes, yields a big time event for the interior (perhaps distant interior) with lots of blah p-type issues / dry slut issues further east. outside of MRG and some of the GC folks, i think most of SNE will want something closer to what the GFS is doing on this run.

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definitely a fun run. it took an entirely different route to get to that output. 00z/06z and the ec really liked diving the shortwave down into the lower miss. river valley (or even further) and merging with some pre-existing southern stream energy and then rotating up the eastern seaboard. that kind of solution, in my eyes, yields a big time event for the interior (perhaps distant interior) with lots of blah p-type issues / dry slut issues further east. outside of MRG and some of the GC folks, i think most of SNE will want something closer to what the GFS is doing on this run.

Yeah, I was looking at that as was thinking this was more northern stream driven, with like you said, a residual southern s/w. Given the propensity as of late for the northern stream to come in more dominant, it's certainly a plausible solution.

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