Chrisrotary12 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Next week looks like a good ol' fashion rainstorm for SE MA and potentially most of Eastern MA. Luckily I will be back at school in Lowell so my chances of snow increase. But boy do I hope i am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ALY leaves open the door for shift east as well as coming so far west as to mix/change to rain for their southern zones. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE THE REGION COULD RECEIVE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT A SLIGHT CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND/OR TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE REGION BEING NORTH AND WEST OF THE HEAVY SNOW AREA...OR IN ENOUGH WARM AIR BEING PULLED IN TO RESULT IN A MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 3-4 foot snow pack after this storm? MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM ALREADY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MANY OF THE DETAILS WILL AGAIN INVOLVE THE TIMING OF PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD EVIDENCE THAT A FAIRLY POWERFUL STORM MAY EVOLVE FROM JUST THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH COPIOUS GULF AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE HAS GOTTEN SOMEWHAT COLDER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS AND IS COLDER THAN THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. INCLINED TO THINK THE COLDER PROFILE MAY MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF ARCTIC AIR RESIDENT OVER NEW ENGLAND. NONETHELESS...WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK WILL BE A DETERMINING FACTOR. FOR NOW...GOING WITH PTYEP OF SNOW ESSENTIAL ALONG AND NW OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR AND RAIN OR SNOW TO THE SE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHANCE RANGE DUE TO HOW FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT INCREASED A LITTLE AND ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE THE PROBABLE SLOWER TIMING FROM PRIOR RUNS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS. ASTRO TIDES HAVE COME DOWN SINCE PAST THE FULL MOON BUT STILL MIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...IF EITHER THE 00Z ECMWF OR 00Z GFS SOLUTION COMES CLOSE TO VERIFYING.-- End Changed Discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 BOX has a fun AFD this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 pretty epic stretch we have had recently. in the last 9 days, I have got 30" of snow, not counting what is falling today. impresssive. looking ahead, if we get any kind of snow on Weds, it could be the most impressive 2 week stretch since-well i don't know since when. so much for the warm January many people were projecting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 BOX has a fun AFD this morning Biblical fantasy run at 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Biblical fantasy run at 138 With the pattern we are in, isn't there a pretty good chance of this verifying to some degree? Damn that would be sweet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Biblical fantasy run at 138 That's just obscene...I barely stay all snow and get absolutely crushed with 2' of paste, would be a highly damaging storm if it verified. Not to mention we don't exactly have a lot of room for more snow on the roadsides and parking lots here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The Euro ens are colder than than the op run which would change alot of SE New Eng to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 wouldnt it be a real pisser if we had all this arctic air this weekend get out of town in time for a storm to come roaring up the coast and be a wintry mix or a cold heavy rain??? it would really suck for sure, they all sound pretty confident of a big event along the eastern sea board though that is for sure esp being almost a week out. Hopefully it will be a big multi region snow block buster with heavy snows from the mid atlantic to all of southern and central new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. You're going to get crushed next week one way or another almost without a doubt. If it all works out, between this storm and next, looks like you could be approaching 100" by the start of February, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 While that solution would be incredible, I find it hard to fathom another 2 feet of snow in my yard right now. I don't think I'd be able to see out of the windows after that one! Then again, I am going skiing next weekend at Cranmore, so that's a major plus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 While that solution would be incredible, I find it hard to fathom another 2 feet of snow in my yard right now. I don't think I'd be able to see out of the windows after that one! Then again, I am going skiing next weekend at Cranmore, so that's a major plus! Average snowpack here is 20". A 2 foot snow storm would cause extreme problems. Streets are already narrow in a lot of places. Of course, I don't care. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Average snowpack here is 20". A 2 foot snow storm would cause extreme problems. Streets are already narrow in a lot of places. Of course, I don't care. Bring it. Very true indeed. About another foot of snow and my street probably becomes a one way drive for the rest of the winter. The real trick is keeping ahead of the back yard patio so I can keep grilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Even the radio stations this morning WAAF are saying major major snowstorm for tuesday. Hype machine in full force. My last facebook post, this should send people over the edge. As we sit here this morning basking in some beautiful snow, Tuesday looks like a BOMB. One model has rain for Eastern Mass and another model has biblical snow. With the trend of the storms this year, I'd be grabbing milk and bread. Maybe some of you snow haters will finally pull the trigger and leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'd rather be skiing Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What is the timing on Tuesday's system? I have a flight out of Logan on Thursday morning. WHDH has the event starting late Wednesday evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Can't even begin to think about the possibility of rain next week. Such would be totaly devestating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Big Winter incoming, Big Big Winter. BWOICoTFTW Big Winter Ongoing Incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Brrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z GFS for January 21st says BOMBS AWAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I think the GFS suffers from some feedback issues after 126h as the low center jumps E with that vort. What a solution verbatim though. Heavy, heavy snows for most of SNE/CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Position of the H leading up to the event is perfect too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow at the 12z GFS. Another blizzard. I can only imagine the vitriol from our poor friend in N. ME if that verifies. HP hanging tough and confluence to our N suggests something like it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, definitely lots of time to figure this out but nice start to the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 At this point, I'd go out on a limb and say - Big Winter's Here! BWOICoTFTW Big Winter Ongoing Incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z GFS for January 21st says BOMBS AWAY! definitely a fun run. it took an entirely different route to get to that output. 00z/06z and the ec really liked diving the shortwave down into the lower miss. river valley (or even further) and merging with some pre-existing southern stream energy and then rotating up the eastern seaboard. that kind of solution, in my eyes, yields a big time event for the interior (perhaps distant interior) with lots of blah p-type issues / dry slut issues further east. outside of MRG and some of the GC folks, i think most of SNE will want something closer to what the GFS is doing on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 definitely a fun run. it took an entirely different route to get to that output. 00z/06z and the ec really liked diving the shortwave down into the lower miss. river valley (or even further) and merging with some pre-existing southern stream energy and then rotating up the eastern seaboard. that kind of solution, in my eyes, yields a big time event for the interior (perhaps distant interior) with lots of blah p-type issues / dry slut issues further east. outside of MRG and some of the GC folks, i think most of SNE will want something closer to what the GFS is doing on this run. Yeah, I was looking at that as was thinking this was more northern stream driven, with like you said, a residual southern s/w. Given the propensity as of late for the northern stream to come in more dominant, it's certainly a plausible solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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