ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Backing out todays qpf, It would be around 2" for most here except NW ME/NH and most of VT How much for vt and nh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 well face value on the euro, the arctic high moves due east away from new england. i'm sure there'd be some ridging trying to nose west but that's not a good way to hold in cold. Yeah I saw that, hints even on the others. We can't get a snowstorm with a little storm passing ACK with almost no wind. We're doomed on a biggie with a high in that position. Still plenty of time but hard to go against an odds on favorite near ACK/Canal and with a storm this big as you said, and a high in that position. RE comments on 2m, got it, thanks Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro ensembles have been colder than the op..so hopefully that is still true today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 For the record, here's the JMA. So the summary from the 12z on 1/21/11: GGEM Albany Euro OP ACK GFS ENS ACK GFS OP Benchmark approx. NOGAPS Miss SE of BM JMA Miss well SE of BM Seems to be the perfectly normal spread for this range, all we'd need is the long term UK to either be over albany or OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro ensembles have been colder than the op..so hopefully that is still true today it's going to be tough with the ens. i think because this thing is so ramped up on a lot of guidance. they are more than likely going to be weaker/colder/further east. the "hope" i guess is that it doesn't go to town so far west. it's still 5 days out (euro now has this as a wed storm) so it's bound to shift around. and of course it's a monster storm at day 5/6...the way to lean there is down/less extreme. but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 For the record, here's the JMA. So the summary from the 12z on 1/21/11: GGEM Albany Euro OP ACK GFS ENS ACK GFS OP Benchmark approx. NOGAPS Miss SE of BM JMA Miss well SE of BM Seems to be the perfectly normal spread for this range, all we'd need is the long term UK to either be over albany or OTS. KPOU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Holy high wind warnings pre and post, time to sort out details, , absolutely can see this evolving colder, no weenie goggles either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 it's going to be tough with the ens. i think because this thing is so ramped up on a lot of guidance. they are more than likely going to be weaker/colder/further east. the "hope" i guess is that it doesn't go to town so far west. it's still 5 days out (euro now has this as a wed storm) so it's bound to shift around. and of course it's a monster storm at day 5/6...the way to lean there is down/less extreme. but who knows. My gut tells me like we discoed yest..is that this gives all of SNE some ptype issues. Hope I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z NOGAPS = inland cutter 12z Ukie = inland cutter 12z Euro = ACK but dryslotter 12z GGEM = inland cutter not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z NOGAPS = inland cutter 12z Ukie = inland cutter 12z Euro = ACK but dryslotter 12z GGEM = inland cutter not good NOGAPS isn't a cutter unless my maps are wrong, it's well SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z NOGAPS = inland cutter 12z Ukie = inland cutter 12z Euro = ACK but dryslotter 12z GGEM = inland cutter not good The fact that they all have a big storm in the vicinity is good news to me. Not concerned about details at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z NOGAPS = inland cutter 12z Ukie = inland cutter 12z Euro = ACK but dryslotter 12z GGEM = inland cutter not good 2 plus QPF dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The euro isn't that bad for a good chunk of the area nw of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 2 plus QPF dry slot? look at the 700mb rh, violent dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 look at the 700mb rh, violent dry slot Yea after 2 inches has fallen, it's five to six days out anyway, lots of wiggle room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The euro isn't that bad for a good chunk of the area nw of I-95. yeah there are certainly some interior areas that would be OK...especially because it takes that right hand turn and kind of runs from the MA to ACK - that would save the interior crew from a GGEM like fiasco. it does have a crap load of precip. i just hate seeing HP moving due east away from the area. even if it's arctic HP. just looks warm to me SE of ORH/HFD etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yea after 2 inches has fallen, it's five to six days out anyway, lots of wiggle room +1 Are we really talking dry slot on 144hr panel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ill guess the euro wont verify just cause that would give bridgton like a 5' snowpack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I can only imagine the vitriol from our poor friend in N. ME if that verifies. HP hanging tough and confluence to our N suggests something like it might. No vitriol. Venom. Cataracts of venom. Now that I am down in NYC for my two weeks of work it's snowing just fine back home in PQI/CAR. I'm snakebit this winter. Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yeah there are certainly some interior areas that would be OK...especially because it takes that right hand turn and kind of runs from the MA to ACK - that would save the interior crew from a GGEM like fiasco. it does have a crap load of precip. i just hate seeing HP moving due east away from the area. even if it's arctic HP. just looks warm to me SE of ORH/HFD etc. Yeah agree. That's what sux about not having blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah agree. That's what sux about not having blocking. I'd think this storm with a track near ACK would def be fine for people outside 128 with this snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The fact that they all have a big storm in the vicinity is good news to me. Not concerned about details at this point. Precisely. Finer points will be ironed out later. This will end up producing big snow.....even if it's just interior SNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 One thing for sure is that there is going to be an extremely massive snowpack somewhere between Plymouth Mass and the Lakes region of NH Thursday of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Verbatim the euro would be a foot of snow to oodles of sleet to dryslot then back to snow nw of 95..very similiar to march 93..but still plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'd think this storm with a track near ACK would def be fine for people outside 128 with this snowpack More snow is always better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ill guess the euro wont verify just cause that would give bridgton like a 5' snowpack! If the euro verified, You would be correct, Only mixing isuues here would be the imediate coast for the most part.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 We need that offshore storm to take it's sweet arse time moving out promote ridge building in N Maine Well we know what we will be doing at 1 every day until Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Verbatim the euro would be a foot of snow to oodles of sleet to dryslot then back to snow nw of 95..very similiar to march 93..but still plenty of time I don't see much sleet with the euro. Uper levels look cool enough. It's pretty much snow for you and Will...over to Ray, per critical thicknesses. Even BOS may only briefly flip to rain, or have a mix for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 I don't see much sleet with the euro. Uper levels look cool enough. It's pretty much snow for you and Will...over to Ray, per critical thicknesses. Even BOS may only briefly flip to rain, or have a mix for a while. I gave you the link give me the analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ill guess the euro wont verify just cause that would give bridgton like a 5' snowpack! You laugh at that but it happens. Just a few years ago, I think it was 2007, there was at least 60" on the ground at our house in Bridgton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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