Pattern beyond Jan 21st

[Ginx snewx]

Arctic intrusion with a couple of shots at some goods. Donnie baseball says after first week of Feb lalalalalalock it up for a historic winter.

[CoastalWx]

I think it's safe to say that the -nao won't return for at least another 3 weeks imo. This isn't bad at all if we can keep heights high either in the EPO or PNA region. It also would allow for arctic intrusions. My concern is that we lose the +pna in February and then what happens up to our northeast. I wouldn't mind if the nao were neutral, but I think the month of Feb is a toss up. One would think the nao blocking would return at some point, but that's beyond me.

[Ginx snewx]

I think it's safe to say that the -nao won't return for at least another 3 weeks imo. This isn't bad at all if we can keep heights high either in the EPO or PNA region. It also would allow for arctic intrusions. My concern is that we lose the +pna in February and then what happens up to our northeast. I wouldn't mind if the nao were neutral, but I think the month of Feb is a toss up. One would think the nao blocking would return at some point, but that's beyond me.

Nice to see the - EPO positive PNA to carry us through while the Arctic goes positive, perfect actually, as the Arctic again goes negative we are still in the - EPO + PNA regime by Feb 10 th or so. As the seasonal shift begins we are primed perfect by this combo. I rate the chances as above average Dons map pans out.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z GFS has the storm for Tues/Wed. Looks like a frozen precip event too.

[OSUmetstud]

I think it's safe to say that the -nao won't return for at least another 3 weeks imo. This isn't bad at all if we can keep heights high either in the EPO or PNA region. It also would allow for arctic intrusions. My concern is that we lose the +pna in February and then what happens up to our northeast. I wouldn't mind if the nao were neutral, but I think the month of Feb is a toss up. One would think the nao blocking would return at some point, but that's beyond me.

Would an east based -NAO (what we are transitioning into in the next few days) be better for cold than a true positive NAO?

[Ginx snewx]

Would an east based -NAO (what we are transitioning into in the next few days) be better for cold than a true positive NAO?

Yes yes and more yes. East is best from NYC to Maine, west is best from NC to BOS

[OKpowdah]

Model guidance is flirting with a big storm middle of next week ... rhymes with "nipple laser"

[CoastalWx]

Euro op is kind of meh. Big cold, but then two snow to rain storms.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro op is kind of meh. Big cold, but then two snow to rain storms.

That one early next week would suck for all of us.

Let's hope that's wrong.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like euro ensembles take next low over the Cape or very near it. Hopefully it's a colder version of yesterday.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks like euro ensembles take next low over the Cape or very near it. Hopefully it's a colder version of yesterday.

Sounds similar to the GFS Ensm., maybe a hair more amplified.

[Ginx snewx]

Puke air yesterday and today, that's what I hate about the AO being positive. Sure the PNA drives some cold down in between storms but we are prone to these puke air systems and inside runners. All the bitchin about the block but in reality because of the block we had two KU storms, now that it is gone we face puke air chances too often for my liking. The NNE guys love it but Me on the CP in SNE hates it. Looking forward to the rebuilding in Feb.

[CoastalWx]

Puke air yesterday and today, that's what I hate about the AO being positive. Sure the PNA drives some cold down in between storms but we are prone to these puke air systems and inside runners. All the bitchin about the block but in reality because of the block we had two KU storms, now that it is gone we face puke air chances too often for my liking. The NNE guys love it but Me on the CP in SNE hates it. Looking forward to the rebuilding in Feb.

LOL we had puke air with a -AO from Jan-Mar 2010.

[Damage In Tolland]

Puke air yesterday and today, that's what I hate about the AO being positive. Sure the PNA drives some cold down in between storms but we are prone to these puke air systems and inside runners. All the bitchin about the block but in reality because of the block we had two KU storms, now that it is gone we face puke air chances too often for my liking. The NNE guys love it but Me on the CP in SNE hates it. Looking forward to the rebuilding in Feb.

And what about the torch,puke cutters we had in Dec that destroyed everyones snowpack? Both with bigtime -NAO and -AO...This was nothing.. a few hrs above freezing here lol

[Organizing Low]

Puke air yesterday and today, that's what I hate about the AO being positive. Sure the PNA drives some cold down in between storms but we are prone to these puke air systems and inside runners. All the bitchin about the block but in reality because of the block we had two KU storms, now that it is gone we face puke air chances too often for my liking. The NNE guys love it but Me on the CP in SNE hates it. Looking forward to the rebuilding in Feb.

i know what you are saying.....but

we had AWFUL puke air all last winter it seemed

never has eastern canada torched like that

a variable AO is much better, it needs to go positive every now and then to reload or else labrador and quebec are wearing bermuda shorts like last year

and winter ends early for all...

[Ginx snewx]

i know what you are saying.....but

we had AWFUL puke air all last winter it seemed

never has eastern canada torched like that

a variable AO is much better, it needs to go positive every now and then to reload or else labrador and quebec are wearing bermuda shorts

and winter ends early for all.

Donnie Baseball

Several quick thoughts on the AO:

1. Given past experience with historic severe to extreme December blocking episodes, the three ensemble members suggesting that the AO will likely peak at +3 to +4 near the end of January or around February 1 are probably overdone. I suspect a +1 to +2 peak is more likely.

2. The ensemble consensus that the AO will go positive for a time is reasonable. I suspect the AO+ regime will likely last 7-10 days.

3. Relying on past experience with the historic blocking cases, I suspect that the AO will begin to trend downward beginning sometime during the first week in February. The two ensemble members showing an aggressive decline prior to February 1 are likely premature. However, a gradual decline could accelerate afterward.

Things to look for:

1. The most aggressive ensemble members will scale back their forecast for the peak positive AO.

2. A growing number of ensemble members will indicate a decline in the AO sometime during the first week in February.

Already, if one animates RaleighWx's Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height anomalies, the 12z GFS run has moved somewhat more toward a less aggressive AO+ peak and a slow recovery in the AO blocking vs. the 6z run in the last frames of the animation.

[Organizing Low]

Donnie Baseball

Several quick thoughts on the AO:

1. Given past experience with historic severe to extreme December blocking episodes, the three ensemble members suggesting that the AO will likely peak at +3 to +4 near the end of January or around February 1 are probably overdone. I suspect a +1 to +2 peak is more likely.

2. The ensemble consensus that the AO will go positive for a time is reasonable. I suspect the AO+ regime will likely last 7-10 days.

3. Relying on past experience with the historic blocking cases, I suspect that the AO will begin to trend downward beginning sometime during the first week in February. The two ensemble members showing an aggressive decline prior to February 1 are likely premature. However, a gradual decline could accelerate afterward.

Things to look for:

1. The most aggressive ensemble members will scale back their forecast for the peak positive AO.

2. A growing number of ensemble members will indicate a decline in the AO sometime during the first week in February.

Already, if one animates RaleighWx's Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height anomalies, the 12z GFS run has moved somewhat more toward a less aggressive AO+ peak and a slow recovery in the AO blocking vs. the 6z run in the last frames of the animation.

this years AO return will be much better for you, since eastern canada will not be flooded with maritime air

that can definitely result in a longer winter.

i dont remember exactly....but were there any significant snow events in march or april last year?

[Ginx snewx]

i know what you are saying.....but

we had AWFUL puke air all last winter it seemed

never has eastern canada torched like that

a variable AO is much better, it needs to go positive every now and then to reload or else labrador and quebec are wearing bermuda shorts like last year

and winter ends early for all...

See my first post and what a Neg AO pos PNA produce, game set match McEnroe

[Organizing Low]

See my first post and what a Neg AO pos PNA produce, game set match McEnroe

yeah but im talking about the fact that the AO needs time to reload to extend the season, so this year may work out better

i always keep up with Don S posts because he controls the weather for us up here.

[Ginx snewx]

And what about the torch,puke cutters we had in Dec that destroyed everyones snowpack? Both with bigtime -NAO and -AO...This was nothing.. a few hrs above freezing here lol

Pickout your cutter dates and your heavy dates here

[Ginx snewx]

yeah but im talking about the fact that the AO needs time to reload to extend the season, so this year may work out better

i always keep up with Don S posts because he controls the weather for us up here.

Agree and glad we have the PNA during reload, otherwise KeV would be throwing frisbees while admiring big burly men.

[Ginx snewx]

LOL we had puke air with a -AO from Jan-Mar 2010.

January 10 was .03 above in BOS, the AO reached historical lows which was too much of a good thing, it however rebounded quickly in Middle Feb March, a real stinker of an air mass for Feb and March, however most areas south of the Pike finished with average to above average snow. Again let me stress I am talking about MY location, not Canada or Maine. Do not need historical values, Dons map says it all though, if the PNA stays positive and the AO goes Neg like it should, we all reap.

[ORH_wxman]

Interesting D6-7 storm on the Euro...looks like a lot of snow with some taint mixed in at the height. Quite a convoluted setup though so I'd be surprised not to see large shifts...also given the time frame we should expect that anyway.

[H2Otown_WX]

Interesting D6-7 storm on the Euro...looks like a lot of snow with some taint mixed in at the height. Quite a convoluted setup though so I'd be surprised not to see large shifts...also given the time frame we should expect that anyway.

Would this be mainly snow for NE Will? Sounds like it'd be rain all the way up to NYC with SE winds.

[ORH_wxman]

Would this be mainly snow for NE Will? Sounds like it'd be rain all the way up to NYC with SE winds.

It would be mostly snow for the interior N of HFD or so...there's a good front end dump, then taint (either sleet/ice/rain depending on location) and then it flips back to snow as the low closes off and the CCB sets up over SNE before it exits, so an additional 3-6 may fall. It may never mix or change over for N ORH county/SW NH and Berkshires for SNE locations.

Its a complicated setup and not worth discussing details at this time range though. The only idea to take away from it is that there's potential for a winter storm next week.

[H2Otown_WX]

It would be mostly snow for the interior N of HFD or so...there's a good front end dump, then taint (either sleet/ice/rain depending on location) and then it flips back to snow as the low closes off and the CCB sets up over SNE before it exits, so an additional 3-6 may fall. It may never mix or change over for N ORH county/SW NH and Berkshires for SNE locations.

Its a complicated setup and not worth discussing details at this time range though. The only idea to take away from it is that there's potential for a winter storm next week.

Thanks for the response. The other good thing is it shifted to a coastal scenario as opposed to a low that cuts inland.

[Confuzzled]

Current 00z SFC sumamry minus the euro.........

Ukie @ 144:

GGEM @ 156

GFS going fishing @ 156:

Still a long ways off and I haven't seen the new euro yet but judging by ORH_wxman's comment above the gfs seems like an outlier right now with an OTS track....

Edited...

144hr euro from Allan's page is out....

[H2Otown_WX]

Current 00z SFC sumamry minus the euro.........

GFS going fishing @ 156:

Still a long ways off and I haven't seen the new euro yet but judging by ORH_wxman's comment above the gfs seems like an outlier right now with an OTS track....

That's right where we want it at this stage of the game Vin.

[Baroclinic Zone]

[Ginx snewx]

Holy 60 knot East 8 h inflow on the Euro , blizzard