Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, I was looking at that as was thinking this was more northern stream driven, with like you said, a residual southern s/w. Given the propensity as of late for the northern stream to come in more dominant, it's certainly a plausible solution. Can't be right though as it gives Phil and I snow ACK track FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, I was looking at that as was thinking this was more northern stream driven, with like you said, a residual southern s/w. Given the propensity as of late for the northern stream to come in more dominant, it's certainly a plausible solution. i can't say i feel one is more likely than the other but what you end up with essentially is hybrid miller b vs. miller a and we know how that tends to work our for SNE. the timing is key on this. if it's delayed too much we are going to see that HP slip seaward...obviously it's an arctic air mass and would be tough to scour out away from the shore...but we'd probably have all sorts of mid-level issues etc after any initial front end thump...in some respects...think boxing day storm. would help to see that LP that develops offshore the MA on sunday really bomb and temporarily set-up shop well to our NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i can't say i feel one is more likely than the other but what you end up with essentially is hybrid miller b vs. miller a and we know how that tends to work our for SNE. the timing is key on this. if it's delayed too much we are going to see that HP slip seaward...obviously it's an arctic air mass and would be tough to scour out away from the shore...but we'd probably have all sorts of mid-level issues etc after any initial front end thump...in some respects...think boxing day storm. would help to see that LP that develops offshore the MA on sunday really bomb and temporarily set-up shop well to our NE. Agree on all points. Boxing Day is still my best storm. of the season. The thing that irks me this year is for the 500 to blow up by the NY Bight. Seasonal trends need to be weighed heavily. It has the potential though to be a bit colder of a solution given we a re a month later into the season and we will be dealing with a colder air mass leading up to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS brings the Arctic right into us after this storm for the 1st week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Agreed Bob. Its not your garden variety arctic air mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ACK track FTW, not the year for SE areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 gfs ensembles don't really agree with the op with respect to mid-week. they are definitely still in the dig and ride up the coast camp. low looks like it cuts over E SNE/cape/ack in general...but not before going from hatteras due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Better map, same old same old, Boston to Providence to Orh to Kev get smoked....SE areas go to slop during the height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is a little west for all snow I think, can't be sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 gfs ensembles don't really agree with the op with respect to mid-week. they are definitely still in the dig and ride up the coast camp. low looks like it cuts over E SNE/cape/ack in general...but not before going from hatteras due north. So mixing or it will be cold enough for all snow from Boston north? Nevermind just saw the comments posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Early call...SW CT cashes in once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Going to try to post the big 3-4 each main run leading up, so we have a permanent history. NOGAPs is right, GFS in the middle, GEFS left, GGEM way left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Still looks like a mostly frozen scenario though on the 12z GFS Ensm. I'd love to see the in between panels from 120-132. Looks like on hellacious front ender than a killer CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seeing how for west the track is on the GFS ensembles and then the GGEM actually has me worried a little as I think as we track closer to the event we will see the models end up coming more west so I think in the end this could end up having precip issues for for than just SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM is a little west for all snow I think, can't be sure though. The GGEM is digging for Gulf oil.. Takes the long route hence the warmer more wrapped up solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seeing how for west the track is on the GFS ensembles and then the GGEM actually has me worried a little as I think as we track closer to the event we will see the models end up coming more west so I think in the end this could end up having precip issues for for than just SE MA. eh it goes against season trends, which you can dismiss all you want....but they are real. i wouldnt be too worried at this range, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seeing how for west the track is on the GFS ensembles and then the GGEM actually has me worried a little as I think as we track closer to the event we will see the models end up coming more west so I think in the end this could end up having precip issues for for than just SE MA. Yeah I could definitely see an amped up warmer soluution but we'll see. Certainly has some potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Seeing how for west the track is on the GFS ensembles and then the GGEM actually has me worried a little as I think as we track closer to the event we will see the models end up coming more west so I think in the end this could end up having precip issues for for than just SE MA. I'm already concerned for mixing in SE CT and the shoreline...but we'll see how things trend over the weekend. Should at least be better than the 1" slop to rain event that area saw on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 eh it goes against season trends, which you can dismiss all you want....but they are real. i wouldnt be too worried at this range, well it's just this is another system with a pretty sick negative tilt so that alone is going to favor a more west solution than east solution, plus if this thing closes off to far south and west that wouldn't be entirely good either...south yes...west...no. Yeah I could definitely see an amped up warmer soluution but we'll see. Certainly has some potential! Whoever gets all snow out of this is going to get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Early call...SW CT cashes in once again SW CT year. Been saying it since Boxing Day. And before I even get the chance to ask I see you're concerned for mixing issues. Man, that would be a tough one to take after the arctic plunge. I sure hope you all stay SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm already concerned for mixing in SE CT and the shoreline...but we'll see how things trend over the weekend. Should at least be better than the 1" slop to rain event that area saw on Tuesday. That rain stuff wasn't fun, the next day was awful too, like 35F and drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 12z NAM would be in the western envelope given where the s/w is located at 84h in New Mexico. 12z GFS looks similar the 00z Euro fwiw with the closed 500 low out in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 12z GFS can lock this for BDR. Love the shift to concrete in the middle but we're all good. Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110125/1500Z 99 06008KT 17.2F SNOW 18:1| 0.3|| 0.3 0.016|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110125/1800Z 102 07010KT 20.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.7|| 1.0 0.035|| 0.05 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110125/2100Z 105 06014KT 21.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.3|| 1.3 0.024|| 0.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110126/0000Z 108 05019KT 19.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 1.8 0.051|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110126/0300Z 111 05020KT 19.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 2.4 0.055|| 0.18 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110126/0600Z 114 05023KT 20.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 3.0 0.047|| 0.23 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110126/0900Z 117 04022KT 21.9F SNOW 15:1| 2.3|| 5.2 0.154|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110126/1200Z 120 03026KT 24.1F SNOW 16:1| 4.0|| 9.2 0.244|| 0.63 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110126/1500Z 123 02029KT 24.6F SNOW 23:1| 5.4||14.6 0.236|| 0.86 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110126/1800Z 126 01031KT 25.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.7||15.3 0.098|| 0.96 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110126/2100Z 129 36026KT 23.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.1||15.4 0.016|| 0.98 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110127/0000Z 132 35022KT 25.0F SNOW 17:1| 0.3||15.7 0.016|| 0.99 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110127/0300Z 135 35019KT 27.7F SNOW 18:1| 0.4||16.0 0.020|| 1.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110127/0600Z 138 34014KT 27.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.4||16.5 0.039|| 1.05 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110127/0900Z 141 33013KT 26.8F SNOW 15:1| 0.5||17.0 0.035|| 1.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Kibosh throw me a link to that output please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The trough axis also appears to be a bit further to the west than what we have seen with past storm this winter and given how were already seeing a negative tilt before it gets to GA that would allow potential for some decent westward movement/tracking. I suppose that strong high to our north though sliding off to our NE and the favorable teleconnector setup Tip pointed out could try to work and keep this system from coming too far west but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm already calling it snow to rain to snow for Boston if we go by trends. NJ/NY get hammered along with Hartford. And Baqltimore/DC get flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Kibosh throw me a link to that output please Have at it http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kbdr.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Have at it http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfs/gfs3_kbdr.dat Thanks for the link, that's pretty cool. I've PWM-ized it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Thanks for the link, that's pretty cool. I've PWM-ized it. lol LOL welcome, it's very helpful. Should be fun to compare in a week with what looks to be a biggie coming on up. While we're at it here's the link for the NAM once again for BDR: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kbdr.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm thinking this trends in the cold direction, having that HP could make all the difference for MBY. Gonna be close! Sure is nice to see all of the just crawl this up the coast and absolutely pound everyone with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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