HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS will lose. It's becoming the bigger outlier POS, and as Tip Blizz would say, it has no business handling such a storm his weenie, nevermind a storm. Not saying the NAM will end up 100% right with these amounts though because...yeahhh. 4 against 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM just punishes SNE with some Old Testament ****. the dead rising from the grave, Dogs and cats living together...mass hysteria... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> I'd be more worried if the GFS weren't alone, and the NAM, Euro, RGEM, etc. weren't all hammering us.<br /> <br /><br /><br />Well the NAM is sort of on it's own on the amped side though. It has like .5 additional QPF for basically - well - everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 9z ETA made a shift SE. Looks like a track over ACK as opposed to up Cweats fanny. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Please make a new weenie map for us I made this as a joke and posted it in the amatuer thread....now its looking too conservative.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd be more worried if the GFS weren't alone, and the NAM, Euro, RGEM, etc. weren't all hammering us. Well if you want to believe the Nam scores thats fine and hopefully it does, But if does not and those qpf amounts are pretty ridiculous, I would just be cautious and keep expectation in check because it looks the only way this can go is down from here........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the dead rising from the grave, Dogs and cats living together...mass hysteria... Nice Ghostbusters reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Congrats to Ray And me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 4 against 1 All very true. I wonder how awful it'll be in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is it not odd that the NAM and GFS are making no attempt to converge? I mean - we are basically at D1 here. One of them is going to lose - bad. Not really. There's the NAM track to the west, the GFS track to the east and a nice gray area in the middle where the track likely is ... both would lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If I seriously were to get over 12'' with this storm I'd be screwed in the sense that I have zero place to put the snow, the two main sidewalks have bushes on the side of them then the street on the other. Same thing with my driveway, bushes on both sides. I seriously hope the landlord brings over the snowblower again or otherwise I may end up in the hospital, the blizzard event really did a number on my back, after not experiencing much back pain for the past two months shoveling that must have screwed it up again...or even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Liking very much how this is trending. Looks like, to my old eyes, that I'm in the 1" QPF? I know not to rely on QPF charts too much, but cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the dead rising from the grave, Dogs and cats living together...mass hysteria... Should be nice for the gate keeper in Mt Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Not really. There's the NAM track to the west, the GFS track to the east and a nice gray area in the middle where the track likely is ... both would lose. Yeah, GFS is predicting Six inches, Nam 30. When 18 inches fall they will both be off by 12. I don't like the SREF moving a tad east though. Bothers me. I mean I hope the nam verifies but it too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well if you want to believe the Nam scores thats fine and hopefully it does, But if does not and those qpf amounts are pretty ridiculous, I would just be cautious and keep expectation in check because it looks the only way this can go is down from here........ Agree. I guess my point is, a blend gives us a lot of wiggle room here in Boston - i.e. that if the GFS is more right than we think, we are still hit pretty hard. If the NAM is too amped up, there are others that offer a compromise beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If I seriously were to get over 12'' with this storm I'd be screwed in the sense that I have zero place to put the snow, the two main sidewalks have bushes on the side of them then the street on the other. Same thing with my driveway, bushes on both sides. I seriously hope the landlord brings over the snowblower again or otherwise I may end up in the hospital, the blizzard event really did a number on my back, after not experiencing much back pain for the past two months shoveling that must have screwed it up again...or even more. Snow placement is going to be a huge problem in western CT. State DOT was out wing plowing the grass on the sides of the highways yesterday to make room. Plus my town has been stacking the snow with a payloader in many areas...awesome stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Should be nice for the gate keeper in Mt Tolland. So do we believe what the NAM is dishing? It still seams like it's on the western periphery of guidance. The SREF's ticked E. I'd still favor a Euro/SREF blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Agree. I guess my point is, a blend gives us a lot of wiggle room here in Boston - i.e. that if the GFS is more right than we think, we are still hit pretty hard. If the NAM is too amped up, there are others that offer a compromise beating. I think a track between the 2 is prob what will verify, Euro was in between those 2 and some of the other globals...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gwhizkids Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Should be nice for the gate keeper in Mt Tolland. ...and the Key Master in W.Hartford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well if you want to believe the Nam scores thats fine and hopefully it does, But if does not and those qpf amounts are pretty ridiculous, I would just be cautious and keep expectation in check because it looks the only way this can go is down from here........ The speed of the storm will also keep accumulations in check. The heaviest of the snow looks to occur in a 6-8 hour window centered on tomorrow morning's commute, with some lighter stuff a few hours on either side. A 12 or 15-hour storm will have trouble dropping a widespread 20+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If I seriously were to get over 12'' with this storm I'd be screwed in the sense that I have zero place to put the snow, the two main sidewalks have bushes on the side of them then the street on the other. Same thing with my driveway, bushes on both sides. I seriously hope the landlord brings over the snowblower again or otherwise I may end up in the hospital, the blizzard event really did a number on my back, after not experiencing much back pain for the past two months shoveling that must have screwed it up again...or even more. 22 yrs old --- cmon - even Jerry gets out there and shovels like a man. This is a great problem to have and a good bit of enjoyable exercise. I love shoving a massive >10" snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is it not odd that the NAM and GFS are making no attempt to converge? I mean - we are basically at D1 here. One of them is going to lose - bad. Yup, that is what is helping me maintain a healthy and cautious optimism about what to expect out here. MoneyPit and I are going to start our own "Circle of Cautious Trust". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Snow placement is going to be a huge problem in western CT. State DOT was out wing plowing the grass on the sides of the highways yesterday to make room. Plus my town has been stacking the snow with a payloader in many areas...awesome stuff I heard they are closing 84 now until next Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I made this as a joke and posted it in the amatuer thread....now its looking too conservative.... :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiley1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 WOW the NAM is even more robust over CT. There's honestly 4 to 5 in/hr rates there with plenty of thunder. Probably with the same frequency as a strong summer storm! I dont believe Ive ever seen 4 to 5 inch an hour snowfall rates. Its possible it snowed that hard in the 78 storm but not for very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Should be nice for the gate keeper in Mt Tolland. And ryan the keymaster as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Should be nice for the gate keeper in Mt Tolland. He sleeps above the snow... ...14" above the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So do we believe what the NAM is dishing? It still seams like it's on the western periphery of guidance. The SREF's ticked E. I'd still favor a Euro/SREF blend. I would ride the Euro, That was a good compromise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 <br /><br />Not really. There's the NAM track to the west, the GFS track to the east and a nice gray area in the middle where the track likely is ... both would lose.<br /> Sure. But you would think that, at this point, the both would have started to nudge into the grey. If anything, the NAM has gone more crazy. And it's not just the track - the NAM seems to be finding more juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 bottom line is...even if CT doesn't get the 18-28" advertised by the NAM...snowfall rates are gonna be absolutely insane for a few hour period overnight! The Dec 19 2009 storm was crazy at my place...probably the most intense snow rate / duration combo I've experienced. We had 3"/hr rates for a good 3-4 hours period. Whereever that band sets up...it could surpass that intensity easily. Somebody will see visibilities near zero for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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