Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yeah steve...the good thing for you folks is the difference is meaningless really. for my area...there is a monster bust potential in both directions. the NMM is basically a snowbomb across 90% of the cape. some of the local WRF runs are as well. Yep nowcast sit there, crazy mesoscale CFs and the like. This I am certain you know the climo down there better than anyone, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 9z SREF is rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What if any are the chances for thunder snow whith this storm in SNE? If the NAM is correct, I think they look pretty good (pretty good chances for thundersnow, it should be noted, is any chance at all)... The NAM, which many here seem to favor, was ahead of the pack on a thundersnow event in 2005, if I recall correctly. Personally I'd rather something just a slight whisper east of the NAM so I don't dry slot for too long, but so long as I don't have to come into the office tomorrow, I'll be pretty happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's posts like this that get deleted. No whining. Ray 2010 would have had 90% of his posts deleted - 2011 version is all sunshine and snow jk - mods, mets, admins doing an awesome job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looks like the srefs go over or just se of ack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looks like the srefs go over or just se of ack Looks very similar to 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 9z SREF is rolling in. They look a tick SE at 24h. edit: And thru 30h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks very similar to 03z. Maybe a hair ene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Maybe a hair ene? They've definitely shifted E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like a shift east with the 1'' QPF contour from 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiley1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If the NAM is correct, I think they look pretty good (pretty good chances for thundersnow, it should be noted, is any chance at all)... The NAM, which many here seem to favor, was ahead of the pack on a thundersnow event in 2005, if I recall correctly. Personally I'd rather something just a slight whisper east of the NAM so I don't dry slot for too long, but so long as I don't have to come into the office tomorrow, I'll be pretty happy. Thats what I fear so often forecasted amounts are affected byy dryslots that move over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 They look a tick SE at 24h. edit: And thru 30h. Yes, this is certainly east, with still a decent amount of spread too QPF wise for parts of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's why it's cool to work from home Even better when you own your own company and your the boss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rboarderi Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any mixing issues is SE CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yes, this is certainly east, with still a decent amount of spread too QPF wise for parts of the region. Yup--east. NW trend cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 They've definitely shifted E. They may be a little too far se at initialization, but tough to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Even better when you own your own company and your the boss... Wow, that is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 A definite back off from the 3z as far as 12''+ probs go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks to be going toward the GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wouldn't ride it solo but you have to factor in it to the equation. Why though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 A definite back off from the 3z as far as 12''+ probs go That's old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On second thought, that map may be from yesterday's 9z run, not today's. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On second thought, that map may be from yesterday's 9z run, not today's. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 There seems to be a collective "sucking of wind" taking place. No one's reacting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Why though? well: A) it's not a bad model. it might not be great for this type of set-up but overall as a tool in the chest, it's usable. if it were the ggem out there, i'd probably entirely ignore it. B: it's not alone. there are a bunch of meso models that are not tucked as far NW and some globals are still out that way. but again, i wouldn't (am not) ride the GFS alone. I'm just saying i factor it it to the equation when considering the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 There seems to be a collective "sucking of wind" taking place. No one's reacting. Its fine, I'm not expecting a blockbuster here so i hav less of a chance to get dissapointed........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z NAM pretty darn similar to the 6z NAM through 12 at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 severe severe beating on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yea I might like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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