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Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12 II


Baroclinic Zone

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Nope.....48hours from tonight's init is 0Z Wed 12 Jan.

Can you post it as an attachment...all I see is 0z tuesday and the hotlink is 0z tuesday...that's freaking weird shi*ty comcast.

NCEP said wait on the NAM too:

...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST

TUE/WED...

THE NAM AND 12Z ECMWF ARE SIMILAR UNTIL ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY WHEN

THE NAM...DUE TO ITS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER SOLUTION

UPSTREAM...PULLS THE NAM INCREASINGLY TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF

THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE 18Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF

TRACKING THE LOW PAST CAPE COD. WHILE NO APPARENT PROBLEMS EXIST

WITH THE NAM'S LOW SOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD...INCLUDING FROM

INITIALIZATION...ITS TRACK LIES WEST OF NEARLY THE ENTIRE

DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTER 12Z WED AND THUS IS

CONSIDERED QUESTIONABLE UNTIL CONFIRMED BY ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE.

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Can you post it as an attachment...all I see is 0z tuesday and the hotlink is 0z tuesday...that's freaking weird shi*ty comcast.

NCEP said wait on the NAM too:

...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST

TUE/WED...

THE NAM AND 12Z ECMWF ARE SIMILAR UNTIL ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY WHEN

THE NAM...DUE TO ITS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER SOLUTION

UPSTREAM...PULLS THE NAM INCREASINGLY TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF

THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE 18Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF

TRACKING THE LOW PAST CAPE COD. WHILE NO APPARENT PROBLEMS EXIST

WITH THE NAM'S LOW SOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD...INCLUDING FROM

INITIALIZATION...ITS TRACK LIES WEST OF NEARLY THE ENTIRE

DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTER 12Z WED AND THUS IS

CONSIDERED QUESTIONABLE UNTIL CONFIRMED BY ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE.

Strange... I got the Weds one... not that I understand it. Did you refresh? Some sort of cache thing?

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Can you post it as an attachment...all I see is 0z tuesday and the hotlink is 0z tuesday...that's freaking weird shi*ty comcast.

NCEP said wait on the NAM too:

...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST

TUE/WED...

THE NAM AND 12Z ECMWF ARE SIMILAR UNTIL ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY WHEN

THE NAM...DUE TO ITS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER SOLUTION

UPSTREAM...PULLS THE NAM INCREASINGLY TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF

THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE 18Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF

TRACKING THE LOW PAST CAPE COD. WHILE NO APPARENT PROBLEMS EXIST

WITH THE NAM'S LOW SOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD...INCLUDING FROM

INITIALIZATION...ITS TRACK LIES WEST OF NEARLY THE ENTIRE

DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTER 12Z WED AND THUS IS

CONSIDERED QUESTIONABLE UNTIL CONFIRMED BY ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE.

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Even if this run were to verify I'd be pretty nervous living in the CT Valley, low-level wind fields and sfc winds are mainly out of the N/NE...if you look north of us there is a pretty good amount of dry air; 2M dew points are around -10C or lower, 2M RH values aren't bad...between 85-90%, 925mb RH values the same but up at 850mb you have values less than 40% and a real sharp gradient of the more moist air and the really dry air. I'd be worried here if these winds would draw in some of this drier air and cut back on precip just a bit in the CT Valley.

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Strange... I got the Weds one... not that I understand it. Did you refresh? Some sort of cache thing?

Must be our ISP's because there are nights I'm ahead of weathafella by a few minutes.

I see it now, it's not wrapping the vorticity up and in like the NAM after 36 hours...same old NAM sucking after 36/42.

The RGEM has been less than ideal lately. Really I thought the UK handled the storm snows the other night well, be interested in it and the GFS.

Nobody answered my question on vorticity on the NAM between 48+ it just goes awol.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/index_500_l_loop.shtml

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LOL!!!! Just saw the 00z NAM.

WOW WOW WOW

Huge changes. It's obviously closer to the 12z than 18z BUT BUT BUT ALSO is WAY WAY WAY different than anything we've seen so far with respect to the evolution of the 500mb low. DOES NOT GET SHEARED OUT

Yeah the 500mb stays in tact and arrives much more amped up giving us a very impressive and classic solution.

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What are the current thoughts on timing? Of course I'm flying home from Milwaukee Wednesday night. The thought of getting stuck in Milwaukee is ugggggghhh.

Flying into BOS? Major delays I would think. They'll pre-emptively cancel. Fly a day early. otoh...MKE is not a bad town to me.

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Sorry, I meant 'relative crap'...

The Valley has done alright overall so far, but you'd like to see it do really well in one of these big events for a change.

Here here! Can't remember the last 10"+ snowfall in my town.....while places in SW CT get smoked and NYC even

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Jesus Christ what a solution!

Everything we discussed regarding meso scale is in order.

Intense CSI banding with thunder on this run.

This is some kind of wild meld analog of 1960 and 2005

yup

:thumbsup:

Some incredible lift and rapid upward vertical motions. I would love to be in the snowfall rates of that...taking this run I'd think 3-4''/HR rates easily.

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Is it just me or is the RGEM going to be a mess and east?

toss it . lol

very interested to see if the euro/ nam agree tonite. or if the nam agrees with its self (:yikes: ) tommorrow regarding the handling of 500mb feature

will be watchin the gfs also for the handling off the 5H low. If the euro confirms the nam then get out your party atire.

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toss it . lol

very interested to see if the euro/ nam agree tonite. or if the nam agrees with its self (:yikes: ) tommorrow regarding the handling of 500mb feature

will be watchin the gfs also for the handling off the 5H low. If the euro confirms the nam then get out your party atire.

Am I looking at the right maps? It looks kind of crappy? WTF...that's like a night and day deal.

GFS very similar to the NAM through 12. It'll come down to that 48 hour panel when the NAM just goes atomic.

Dom notice the GFS is a little more consolidated with the old ML

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Yeah the 500mb stays in tact and arrives much more amped up giving us a very impressive and classic solution.

The differences are clear as early as hr24, with more zonal vorticity gradient, lending to a sharper trough. Before 99% of the vorticity was from horizontal speed shear rather than directional shear. 00z NAM shrunk the half wavelength of the system, adding directional shear, and that gets all the positive feedback processes going.

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